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Donovan Mitchell Season Outlook 2018-2019

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The biggest question is where to draft him? He was taken in 2nd round at RW early mock draft and also here RW users H2H mock (17th pick). We have seen sometimes that second year player is not going always better and therefore I think TOP 20 is a little bit risky, there are more safe options (Draymond, Butler, Wall etc). He finished 52nd - can he really jump into TOP20?

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Draymond is NOT a safer option. I've been drafting Dray for years and have severely soured on him. He hurts your efficiency stats (both FT and FG%), he hurts you in points, and the Warriors took getting "Popd" to a whole new level as far as sitting their players at the end of the season. Draymond was completely ghost for me in the playoffs, and I see a repeat of that this season especially now that they have Cousins. I would draft Mitchell over him with confidence, and maybe target Lonzo ball around pick 50 to give you 90% of the stats you get from Draymond
 

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31 minutes ago, thekickasswombat said:

feel like Mitchell and Tatum are going to get overdrafted way too early

 

Tatum especially, third round is insanity considering the mouths the Celtics have to feed.

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Mitchell had a tyreke like rookie season last year. He's obviously better and utah didn't really add anyone but I don't see him making a huge leap this year. 

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He's better in real life than fantasy. I feel like in fantasy he's really just a scorer/3pt shooter with other stats sprinkled in, I think 2nd round is too early and would be targeting him in the 3rd. Guys like Booker, Klay, Derozan, and Jrue Holiday are players I see him having similar value to and these guys normally fall to the 3rd. TBH I'd probably take Holiday over him and would definitely take Booker over him.

 

I expect the below averages for Mitchell:

 

22/4/4 two 3s a game w/1.2 steals on 43% 

 

 

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top 40 floor with top 10 upside if he can increase his effeciency and steals. he could have an oladipo-like season but with more points and threes. maybe not this year but by his 3rd/4th year he will be a top 5 pick. easy second round pick this year in keeper/dyno. Solid 3rd round in redrafts. 

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in early mocks this kid ha been consistently drafted in round 2. The way he played in last year's playoffs have catapulted his ADP. I do not think people who draft him in round 2 will be disappointed, I would rather have him than John Wall, Kemba Walker. Because at worst what you are getting is: 22, 4, 5, with very good threes and steals, and will not hurt you anywhere except TOs. A player like John Wall who will be drafted in almost the same range has historically poor FG, FT and TO. I think 22, 4, 5 is the floor. I am not sure why people think he will not improve his game. The team remains the same, he is the focal point of the offense so his usage rate will be high. If any, I think 22, 4, 5 is a safe floor. I think we all know he is a Tyreke Evans or MCW who is just a flash in the pan and will disappear. This kid is for real. 

 

In a dynasty draft I was a part of, he was taken 10th overall. I was hoping I could snag him in round 2, but someone drafted him early. Only guards taken ahead of him were Harden & Curry

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23 hours ago, a-rob said:

in early mocks this kid ha been consistently drafted in round 2. The way he played in last year's playoffs have catapulted his ADP. I do not think people who draft him in round 2 will be disappointed, I would rather have him than John Wall, Kemba Walker. Because at worst what you are getting is: 22, 4, 5, with very good threes and steals, and will not hurt you anywhere except TOs. A player like John Wall who will be drafted in almost the same range has historically poor FG, FT and TO. I think 22, 4, 5 is the floor. I am not sure why people think he will not improve his game. The team remains the same, he is the focal point of the offense so his usage rate will be high. If any, I think 22, 4, 5 is a safe floor. I think we all know he is a Tyreke Evans or MCW who is just a flash in the pan and will disappear. This kid is for real. 

 

In a dynasty draft I was a part of, he was taken 10th overall. I was hoping I could snag him in round 2, but someone drafted him early. Only guards taken ahead of him were Harden & Curry

 

He is Dwayne Wade with a 3 point shot, and has as good a chance as anyone to outplay his ADP.  Would not be surprised if he improved on every single category this year...Agree with the floor you mentioned.  What's his ceiling?  25 / 5 / 5 / 2.5 - 3 threes / 1.5-2 steals / maybe 0.5 blocks / 45+% FG / 80+% FT.    A lot will depend on his development offensively - pull up 3's, floaters, and IQ.  

 

 

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On 8/30/2018 at 7:12 PM, BetterCallHinkie said:

top 40 floor with top 10 upside if he can increase his effeciency and steals. he could have an oladipo-like season but with more points and threes. maybe not this year but by his 3rd/4th year he will be a top 5 pick. easy second round pick this year in keeper/dyno. Solid 3rd round in redrafts. 

 

Sorry but no way he will ever be a top 5 value, at least not in 9 categories.  Way too many efficiency issues and not enough assists or stocks to offset.  Heard some D. Wade comps but you are forgetting a prime D. Wade was averaging @ 1.1-1.3 block per game.  Donavan won't sniff that, maybe can get .4-.5 block

Edited by El_Chingon
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No value in taking him top 20 this year. As someone said before, his game is much better in real life and does not translate well to fantasy. No chance he cracks Top 10 this year and top 20 is possible but not likely. 

 

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On 8/30/2018 at 8:12 PM, BetterCallHinkie said:

top 40 floor with top 10 upside if he can increase his effeciency and steals. he could have an oladipo-like season but with more points and threes. maybe not this year but by his 3rd/4th year he will be a top 5 pick. easy second round pick this year in keeper/dyno. Solid 3rd round in redrafts. 

 

Whoa I think the hype train is about to jump off the tracks and take flight!! There is just no way he will be a top 5 pick unless he becomes a completely different player. I’m a huge Mitchell fan in real life he’s one of my 10 favorites in the league right now (I’m a 76ers fan and think he should’ve been co-MVP with Ben) and I can’t wait to see how he develops...but I’m not touching him in fantasy this year based on what’s happening in mocks.

 

There are some key things to look at before jumping to conclusions...Sure he had a really good 11 games in the playoffs but go on BBR and look at the game log. This was basically a function of him destroying OKC in 40+mpg who were terrible on defense without Roberson (PG fell off later in the year + isn’t a great matchup with Mitchell and Melo/WB didn’t do anything on D) and in the 5 games against Houston he fell hard back to Earth. Against Houston he averaged 18ppg on 20

FGA per game at 35.5%. Of course this is Houston but the same caveat needs to be made for ripping up OKC’s garbage defensive schemes and complete lack of Effort on that end.

 

So to all of that you might say, well he put up great numbers during the regular season and got better as the season went along, and finished 54 overall (per BBM). True, he finished 54, due to a solid mid season stretch but he actually wasn’t that good to end the season, over the last 3 months (40 games) he ranked 61, over the last 2 months (27 games) he ranked 72, and the last month (15 games) he ranked 82. Most of this was due to poor FG%, TO, and a complete lack of blocks, as well as his FT% hovering around the mid to lower 70’s during this span. I don’t think the FT% will be an issue but also don’t see him as the next Damian Lillard. 

 

This is the problem with Mitchell right now as a fantasy asset compared to a real life asset...he is a volume scorer with elite steals potential. He shot below league average from 3 (34%) and in college he shot 33% so this isn’t anything new, as his FG% and FT% were always around low to mid 40’s and 75-80% respectively also. He’s always been prone to TO’s and a decent playmaker for a combo guard but definitely not a true PG. He’s also generally pretty much allergic to shot blocking so I don’t ever see him contributing there either no matter how much he improves like Dipo for example does. 

 

All that being said players do improve but unless Mitchell adds to his game every summer like the greats do, the way all NBA first team type guys (which ofc is possible) do, I don’t see him ever being elite in fantasy. Top 30-40 sure but beyond that he will either have to have a Kawhi-esque shooting transformation or really develop his on court awareness. He is 6’1.5” without shoes (massive wingspan though) which could limit him in some ways too. You can compare him to Lillard & Oladipo and how their games have evolved but I would argue pretty much every comp had a stronger fantasy game to start and had more to improve (Dipo’s conditioning, Lillard playing weak competition generally pre-NBA, etc) and Mitchell seems to already have close to maximized his body frame and conditioning. 

 

All that being said, This is one of those times I will be extremely happy to be wrong...

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What would need to happen for him to jump from Top60 to Top20? Several things at the same time:

1. FG% increase to ~47% (which for a volume scorer will not be easy), and 

2. Cut his TO's in half, and either 

3. almost double his rebounds, or

4. block 0.8 shots per game. 

 

Is it possible? Sure. 

Is it likely? No. 

That's why drafting Donovan in Top20 is very risky.

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1 hour ago, thrilla1nManila said:

he is a bit overdrafted in the 2nd. Id rather have beal booker  and mcoll in the third round

If you look at Mitchell's Post ASB stats, he had something like 22 ppg 4.1 ast, 4.3 rebs on 43.2% FG 3 TO. That's pretty similar to Booker (with less 3pt more stls) in his rookie year, but not as good as Beal or McCollum who are another level above.

 

Considering Mitchell probably will get better this year and Utah has a whole offseason to figure out what they want to do with him, I am guessing he catches up to Booker at least and will be sniffing at established guys like Beal by year end. Like you said I think right around end of third round is where you want Mitchell, especially with the falloff in SG talent after the early rounds. I'd take him over Booker for the stls because 3pg is much easier to get now.

Edited by rob0403
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I think Mitchell could be a second-rounder this season, so I wouldn't draft him in the second round. I might take a swing in the third if he fell to me.

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Taking him in the second round is an absolute bargin. Mitchell was slept on last year and he continues to be slept on again. He's drawn a ton of comparisons to D.Wade as a player. But fantasy wise he's much closer to Jordan. He will be returning top #1 value this season in Roto and H2H. Hopefully he wins ROTY this time as he was a completely robbed by Simmons last season. 

 

 

 

 

Image result for hype train

 

 

 

 

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On 9/4/2018 at 10:19 PM, BetterCallHinkie said:

Taking him in the second round is an absolute bargin. Mitchell was slept on last year and he continues to be slept on again. He's drawn a ton of comparisons to D.Wade as a player. But fantasy wise he's much closer to Jordan. He will be returning top #1 value this season in Roto and H2H. Hopefully he wins ROTY this time as he was a completely robbed by Simmons last season. 

 

 

 

 

Image result for hype train

 

 

 

 

 

Question...would you take him before the 1st round? Maybe during the 14th round of the previous season’s draft? Tough call...

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I really hope he lands to me at #32. Has anyone drafted yet? If so what range is he going in?

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7 minutes ago, ROTY said:

I really hope he lands to me at #32. Has anyone drafted yet? If so what range is he going in?

 

No chance in hell.  If you want him you have to reach in the 2nd

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8 hours ago, ROTY said:

I really hope he lands to me at #32. Has anyone drafted yet? If so what range is he going in?

 

I've seen someone take him 13-15th in a money league and I pretty much laughed to the bank.

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