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Donovan Mitchell Season Outlook 2018-2019

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10 minutes ago, jim james said:

 

I play in a yahoo league and took him with my 2nd pick.

 

I figured he was special and would make “the leap” this year but my god...the inconsistency from a 2nd round pick will kill a team.

 

If he could somehow iron out the duds and not have them be so duddy, his ranking wouldn’t be so bad. 

 

His threes are not dropping right now and it’s making his overall numbers even uglier.

 

i have no doubt he will figure this out. He is the centerpiece of the jazz and probably their best player since AK47.

 

Stifle is their best player since Stockton to Malone by every conceivable metric. 

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Real life basketball is often too confused with fantasy. That special "leap" could happen in real life but was his game fantasy friendly to begin with? Drafting guys like Mitchell and Booker 2nd round is one of the worst suggestions I have seen all year and it was highly unlikely they would be able to live up to that. Maybe in punt fg/to builds they work but the idea that they were locked for the 2nd round didn't make sense.

 

If you're an owner that isn't punting fg/to you should look to move him for maybe two top 50ish guys that fit your build. As bad as Mitchell's been you could probably get a good return just off name value.

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Seems a lot of owners who overinvested (ie; 2nd round pick) are not ready to “sell low”, given all the draft capital being sacrificed.  This guy continues to be overvalued — because points. 

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11 minutes ago, 80version said:

Seems a lot of owners who overinvested (ie; 2nd round pick) are not ready to “sell low”, given all the draft capital being sacrificed.  This guy continues to be overvalued — because points. 

 

Exactly this.  The Donovan owner in my league has said exactly what you say above to me over and over again when I offer Luca straight up for him. “Can’t sell that low with for my 2nd round pick man.” Do I know if Mitchell will be better than Luca ros? Heck no but I also realize Luca can hit the rookie wall and we have zero sample to go off of. I personally think if it continues like this for another two weeks the owner caves but I am not sure I’d do the deal atp. 

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18 minutes ago, 80version said:

Seems a lot of owners who overinvested (ie; 2nd round pick) are not ready to “sell low”, given all the draft capital being sacrificed.  This guy continues to be overvalued — because points. 

 

For me it’s not really the pick value, I got him 4th round so it’s not like his value right now is that far away from that pick, it’s just that when I’m at that edge to trade him, he goes and drops a gaudy line that makes you say, maybe I should hang on a little longer to see if he can do it again, then the cycle repeats... so for me it’s hard to gauge his value at the moment...

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9 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

Exactly this.  The Donovan owner in my league has said exactly what you say above to me over and over again when I offer Luca straight up for him. “Can’t sell that low with for my 2nd round pick man.” Do I know if Mitchell will be better than Luca ros? Heck no but I also realize Luca can hit the rookie wall and we have zero sample to go off of. I personally think if it continues like this for another two weeks the owner caves but I am not sure I’d do the deal atp. 

Objectively speaking I wouldn't even think about trading Mitchell for Doncic anyways. As much as Mitchell has underperformed he is still ranked higher than the ROY type production of Doncic.

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2 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Objectively speaking I wouldn't even think about trading Mitchell for Doncic anyways. As much as Mitchell has underperformed he is still ranked higher than the ROY type production of Doncic.

 

I get it and that’s all I’d really offer because Mitchell has looked awful all season. 

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5 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Stifle is their best player since Stockton to Malone by every conceivable metric. 

 

With all due respect to Rudy, Andrei at his peak was a total unicorn.

 

Mitchell showed last year that he could carry a teams scoring in the playoffs.

 

 

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5 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Real life basketball is often too confused with fantasy. That special "leap" could happen in real life but was his game fantasy friendly to begin with? Drafting guys like Mitchell and Booker 2nd round is one of the worst suggestions I have seen all year and it was highly unlikely they would be able to live up to that. Maybe in punt fg/to builds they work but the idea that they were locked for the 2nd round didn't make sense.

 

If you're an owner that isn't punting fg/to you should look to move him for maybe two top 50ish guys that fit your build. As bad as Mitchell's been you could probably get a good return just off name value.

 

No one is confusing real life basketball vs fantasy here, so let’s get off that high horse you’re on.

 

what Mitchell did in the playoffs for a rookie spoke volumes. 

 

I play in a very competitive money league and took a gamble in drafting Mitchell. If he did make the leap and brought his game to that next level...well then he would have first round value.

 

Hardly inconceivable to think since he is the centerpiece of the jazz offense.

 

Lets remember the hyped pick two seasons ago of jokic, who was a 2nd rounder based off of his post asb numbers.

 

he started off atrociously slow and people gave up on him and he finished off strong.

 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, jim james said:

 

No one is confusing real life basketball vs fantasy here, so let’s get off that high horse you’re on.

 

what Mitchell did in the playoffs for a rookie spoke volumes. 

 

I play in a very competitive money league and took a gamble in drafting Mitchell. If he did make the leap and brought his game to that next level...well then he would have first round value.

 

Hardly inconceivable to think since he is the centerpiece of the jazz offense.

 

Lets remember the hyped pick two seasons ago of jokic, who was a 2nd rounder based off of his post asb numbers.

 

he started off atrociously slow and people gave up on him and he finished off strong.

 

 

 

No high horse its just facts and if you read enough threads on this forum you should have noticed how easily the two are confused. You just confused the two by talking about his playoff performance lol.

 

As good as Mitchell was he was only the 21st ranked player during the 2018 Playoffs on a per game basis. Think about that considering half the leagues players weren't involved. No leap was putting this guy in the discussion for 1st round this year. So if you took him in the 2nd round you set yourself up for disappointment.

 

Yes he is the centerpiece of the jazz offence but if you took him in the 2nd you took him at his absolute ceiling which is likely unachievable.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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1 hour ago, jim james said:

 

With all due respect to Rudy, Andrei at his peak was a total unicorn.

 

Mitchell showed last year that he could carry a teams scoring in the playoffs.

 

 

It’s possible but AK47 was better but it’s academic bc I couldn’t find accurate real plus statistics from back then.  I do know that Stifle is ranked 27th in real plus minus and Mitchell is 51st. I also know if you score 30+ ppg but do it so inefficiently that it takes 30+ shots and you get 0 assists that you’re not carrying a team, you’re destroying it.  A team simply cannot win if you use so many possessions so poorly.  It’s also no coincidence that the Jazz made a deep run when Rubio was handling the ball and Mitchell was offball.  Now that Mitchell is shooting 30 shots a game the Jazz are struggling.  

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4 minutes ago, kane said:

rule out tomorrow

 

 

Thanks! Was waiting for that. Streamed Burks for Sun-Mon back to back. 

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To the owners, guys do you think he can at least duplicate his numbers last year?

 

As per basketball reference, Mitchell's numbers last year: 43.7 FG%, 80.5 FT%, 2.4 3s, 3.7 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.5 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 TOs, 20.5 ppg.

 

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Thank you @lbc88 for giving me the idea to stream Burks.  I just need to win pts. to finish 5-4 this week in a match that I’m now losing thanks to Mitchell’s injury (and 3 of my other players as well).  With Don out, cross fingers streaming Burks will pay off big time.

 

Good insurance too for Monday!

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22 minutes ago, MrBean said:

To the owners, guys do you think he can at least duplicate his numbers last year?

 

As per basketball reference, Mitchell's numbers last year: 43.7 FG%, 80.5 FT%, 2.4 3s, 3.7 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.5 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 TOs, 20.5 ppg.

 

I think he has a chance to duplicate but not exceed that.  I believe he’s playing to the maximum extent of his potential and it’s just difficult to find a place where he can realistically improve.  Maybe he can improve his shot selection and improve FG.  The other issue is that I’ve noticed he takes a beating.  He’s a little like Westbrook where he throws his body into traffic with reckless abandon and just gets hacked up.  He doesn’t always get the call bc he’s out of control but he takes the beating whether he gets the call or not.  I’d expect last years numbers but honestly cross your fingers he plays 70 games.  

 

 

 

 

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maybe he need to learn from harden to draw foul when attack the rim

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Clearly his feelings are hurt cause he sucks so much. I know the team is saying it’s his ribs but it’s really heart ache. 

Edited by chud12
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1 hour ago, MrBean said:

To the owners, guys do you think he can at least duplicate his numbers last year?

 

As per basketball reference, Mitchell's numbers last year: 43.7 FG%, 80.5 FT%, 2.4 3s, 3.7 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.5 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 TOs, 20.5 ppg.

 

 

I think he hits it, he’s just half a 3 and 1 rebound shy of his averages last year... I think this is an over reaction cause we all expected him to show playoff Mitchell from the start but he’s hit a few snags, personally I’d just try and stay patient... if he hits his averages last year that’s good enough for where I drafted him and if he hits expectations this year, then I actually got a steal... 

 

it it really just depends on where you drafted him...

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18 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s possible but AK47 was better but it’s academic bc I couldn’t find accurate real plus statistics from back then.  I do know that Stifle is ranked 27th in real plus minus and Mitchell is 51st. I also know if you score 30+ ppg but do it so inefficiently that it takes 30+ shots and you get 0 assists that you’re not carrying a team, you’re destroying it.  A team simply cannot win if you use so many possessions so poorly.  It’s also no coincidence that the Jazz made a deep run when Rubio was handling the ball and Mitchell was offball.  Now that Mitchell is shooting 30 shots a game the Jazz are struggling.  

 

I agree with you on passing being a dominant metric, it’s the reason why golden state caught the league off guard, they put 4/5 guys on the floor that can pass the ball with ease and find the open 3.

 

Rubio is a classic point guard. He handles the offensive flow. It is his job to handle the ball. Mitchell is the classic shooting guard and takes shots. I agree, the offense should not be running through Mitchell.

 

AK47 came up during a time when guys like him didn’t really exist. There was Rashard Lewis, Kevin Garnett, Dirk is another guy that comes to mind. New breed of long skinny guys that had a great shot and created defensive problems.

 

+\- is great and I get the difference between gobert and mitchell but they have different jobs.

 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

No high horse its just facts and if you read enough threads on this forum you should have noticed how easily the two are confused. You just confused the two by talking about his playoff performance lol.

 

As good as Mitchell was he was only the 21st ranked player during the 2018 Playoffs on a per game basis. Think about that considering half the leagues players weren't involved. No leap was putting this guy in the discussion for 1st round this year. So if you took him in the 2nd round you set yourself up for disappointment.

 

Yes he is the centerpiece of the jazz offence but if you took him in the 2nd you took him at his absolute ceiling which is likely unachievable.

 

Lol, whatever you say. You’re a “fact checker”. Got it.

 

Where does his efficiency ranking list him if you remove his 2nd round of the playoffs? He did get shut down pretty badly.

 

He was the main factor in helping the team advance past the first round, as a rookie. 

 

Also, for a rookie he had an exceptional 1st season. History shows us that exceptional talents can sometimes make the leap during their sophomore campaign.

 

you can poo poo all you want but you’re having a laugh using hindsight.

 

Those of us that took him in the 2nd round took a gamble and it’s ok. This is the fantasy sports life.

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