Sign in to follow this  
Flynfiesta6

Harrison Butker 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Not to get to pumped up on Kickers but I didn't see a thread on him yet and the dude absolutely crushed it last season as a rookie.  Only missed 4 kicks out of 40+ attempts and finished the season as the #6 Kicker after not starting the first 3 games.  I have consistently picked him up in the last round of drafts after watching guys like tucker, the leg and gostkowski go in 12-15.  Not going to win you the league by any means but will be a difference maker this year for sure.  Losing Alex Smith may hurt a little but I think he finishes in the top 3 for Kickers this year.  Its also really fun to scream "BUTTKICKER" every time he scores. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I picked him up after missing out on Greg the Leg. I think he'll be solid, but you just never know about kickers. They're about as reliable from year-to-year as closers in baseball. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just checked the preseason stats - 9/9.  Looks like it's all systems go for butt kicker!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Butt kicker got me 17 pts on a tie game in the playoffs last year...

My opponent then got 19 from his kicker on Monday night.

 

Sign me up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

Just checked the preseason stats - 9/9.  Looks like it's all systems go for butt kicker!

Love that level of research on kickers lol 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wrote my senior thesis on the development of rookie kickers and Harrison Butker is an intriguing case study on kicker motivation and performance against bell curve distributions of draft capital to both efficiency and total point production. There are outlying kickers that fall within three standard deviations of the mean (Roberto Aguayo) than can flame out rather quickly. Other highly drafted kickers (Sebastian Janikowski) can return extended point production that delivers steady park and wind adjusted angles over large sample sizes. 

 

My conclusion found that the best kickers are both consistent in the length of kick (40-55 yards) and are capable of hitting extra points with high efficiency (95%). The most interesting and telling metric of kicker failure is the downward logarithmic trend associated with near miss kicks (kicks that fall within the wind and temperature adjusted "victory rectangle" that nonetheless fail to meet their target due to poor field positioning and low percentage distances). Having a near miss kick has a confidence destroying future kick miss predictability coefficient of .24, which doesn't sound particularly strong but is capable of delivering 2.32 points per game in variability.

 

Further research shows that training camp kicker battles, unreasonable kicker expectations due to high draft capital, and oversaturation to high media markets are associated with elevated levels of kicker instability. Harrison Butker meets the check marks that you would look for in a "post-hype" kicker in that he was cut his rookie season, enters a situation with no clear cut competition, is presented with coaching choices that balance 4th down opportunities with projected Net Point Production, and has a high percentage of short yardage kicks that favor his kicking foot. 

 

Harrison Butker's Height Adjusted Leg Strength Score (HALSS) ranks 93rd percentile among all kickers drafted since 2013. His Value Added Space Above Upright (VASAU) metrics, developed through scatterplot distributions of yard and weather adjusted plane-break positioning, show a 17.86 percent higher likelihood of receiving a quality centered ball (defined as a field goal within the center third vertical plane of the upright).

 

Long snapper adjusted kicking metrics also further Butler's future development but it would be wise to check weather reports pregame and potentially handcuff him with 1 or 2 other kicking options such as Will Lutz who can contribute to strictly park based metrics. I drafted Butker, Lutz, and then Jake Elliott in the last 3 rounds and plan on rotating them based on the outputs of my Success-Curv(tm) kicker success algorithm. PM me if you want access to this algorithm I am selling it for a first time discount of 14.99 per season

Edited by pushaZ
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 5
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$14.99?!  Dude, you have to start your own university and turn this thing into at least a dissertation.  And explore selling movie rights.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I wrote my senior thesis on the development of rookie kickers and Harrison Butker is an intriguing case study on kicker motivation and performance against bell curve distributions of draft capital to both efficiency and total point production. There are outlying kickers that fall within three standard deviations of the mean (Roberto Aguayo) than can flame out rather quickly. Other highly drafted kickers (Sebastian Janikowski) can return extended point production that delivers steady park and wind adjusted angles over large sample sizes. 

 

My conclusion found that the best kickers are both consistent in the length of kick (40-55 yards) and are capable of hitting extra points with high efficiency (95%). The most interesting and telling metric of kicker failure is the downward logarithmic trend associated with near miss kicks (kicks that fall within the wind and temperature adjusted "victory rectangle" that nonetheless fail to meet their target due to poor field positioning and low percentage distances). Having a near miss kick has a confidence destroying future kick miss predictability coefficient of .24, which doesn't sound particularly strong but is capable of delivering 2.32 points per game in variability.

 

Further research shows that training camp kicker battles, unreasonable kicker expectations due to high draft capital, and oversaturation to high media markets are associated with elevated levels of kicker instability. Harrison Butker meets the check marks that you would look for in a "post-hype" kicker in that he was cut his rookie season, enters a situation with no clear cut competition, is presented with coaching choices that balance 4th down opportunities with projected Net Point Production, and has a high percentage of short yardage kicks that favor his kicking foot. 

 

Harrison Butker's Height Adjusted Leg Strength Score (HALSS) ranks 93rd percentile among all kickers drafted since 2013. His Value Added Space Above Upright (VASAU) metrics, developed through scatterplot distributions of yard and weather adjusted plane-break positioning, show a 17.86 percent higher likelihood of receiving a quality centered ball (defined as a field goal within the center third vertical plane of the upright).

 

Long snapper adjusted kicking metrics also further Butler's future development but it would be wise to check weather reports pregame and potentially handcuff him with 1 or 2 other kicking options such as Will Lutz who can contribute to strictly park based metrics. I drafted Butker, Lutz, and then Jake Elliott in the last 3 rounds and plan on rotating them based on the outputs of my Success-Curv(tm) kicker success algorithm. PM me if you want access to this algorithm I am selling it for a first time discount of 14.99 per season

 

I would have failed your thesis the moment you told me to hold 3 kickers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m more intrigued by how one fails a thesis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m more intrigued by how one fails a thesis.

 

Are you suggesting holding 3 kickers is a proven concept for fantasy success?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

 

Are you suggesting holding 3 kickers is a proven concept for fantasy success?

 

Not in the slightest.  I just didn’t understand what you meant by “failing a thesis.”  I don’t see any relationship between the two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Not in the slightest.  I just didn’t understand what you meant by “failing a thesis.”  I don’t see any relationship between the two.

 

A thesis can be failed in concept

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Butker was #1 or #2 in fantasy points per game with 12+. Comparable to Greg Zuerlein. His 13 game sample size fooled a lot of people who couldn't average out his production. Drafted him with confidence. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, pushaZ said:

PM me if you want access to this algorithm I am selling it for a first time discount of 14.99 per season

 

Do you accept Paypal?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone playing him against Chargers? seems like Mahomes might limit his chances with his gunslinging mentality. Contemplating going for Daniel Carlson (Vikings) over him this week against 49rs. Any insights appreciated!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Bastardo! said:

 

Do you accept Paypal?

I only accept Ethereum

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dynst1988 said:

Anyone playing him against Chargers? seems like Mahomes might limit his chances with his gunslinging mentality. Contemplating going for Daniel Carlson (Vikings) over him this week against 49rs. Any insights appreciated!

 

Interesting.  Those are my exact choices.  Going with Butker for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, pushaZ said:

I wrote my senior thesis on the development of rookie kickers and Harrison Butker is an intriguing case study on kicker motivation and performance against bell curve distributions of draft capital to both efficiency and total point production. There are outlying kickers that fall within three standard deviations of the mean (Roberto Aguayo) than can flame out rather quickly. Other highly drafted kickers (Sebastian Janikowski) can return extended point production that delivers steady park and wind adjusted angles over large sample sizes. 

 

My conclusion found that the best kickers are both consistent in the length of kick (40-55 yards) and are capable of hitting extra points with high efficiency (95%). The most interesting and telling metric of kicker failure is the downward logarithmic trend associated with near miss kicks (kicks that fall within the wind and temperature adjusted "victory rectangle" that nonetheless fail to meet their target due to poor field positioning and low percentage distances). Having a near miss kick has a confidence destroying future kick miss predictability coefficient of .24, which doesn't sound particularly strong but is capable of delivering 2.32 points per game in variability.

 

Further research shows that training camp kicker battles, unreasonable kicker expectations due to high draft capital, and oversaturation to high media markets are associated with elevated levels of kicker instability. Harrison Butker meets the check marks that you would look for in a "post-hype" kicker in that he was cut his rookie season, enters a situation with no clear cut competition, is presented with coaching choices that balance 4th down opportunities with projected Net Point Production, and has a high percentage of short yardage kicks that favor his kicking foot. 

 

Harrison Butker's Height Adjusted Leg Strength Score (HALSS) ranks 93rd percentile among all kickers drafted since 2013. His Value Added Space Above Upright (VASAU) metrics, developed through scatterplot distributions of yard and weather adjusted plane-break positioning, show a 17.86 percent higher likelihood of receiving a quality centered ball (defined as a field goal within the center third vertical plane of the upright).

 

Long snapper adjusted kicking metrics also further Butler's future development but it would be wise to check weather reports pregame and potentially handcuff him with 1 or 2 other kicking options such as Will Lutz who can contribute to strictly park based metrics. I drafted Butker, Lutz, and then Jake Elliott in the last 3 rounds and plan on rotating them based on the outputs of my Success-Curv(tm) kicker success algorithm. PM me if you want access to this algorithm I am selling it for a first time discount of 14.99 per season

 

This is the kind of analysis that Butker himself would have done.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time this guy sees the field the announcers mention how the chiefs picked him up off the panthers practice squad. So annoying. Hopefully they stop

saying that this year 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, dynst1988 said:

Anyone playing him against Chargers? seems like Mahomes might limit his chances with his gunslinging mentality. Contemplating going for Daniel Carlson (Vikings) over him this week against 49rs. Any insights appreciated!

If you ask kicker start sit questions, you deserved to have your butt....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if I'm happy about the potent Chiefs offense, or irritated by the fact that they never stall out in field goal range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.