hipriest69

Nic Batum 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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He's pretty much a slam dunk for 12 / 5 / 5 / 1.5 / 1 / 0.4 with low 40's FG  and 84% FT.  

 

Dwight and his whopping 24% usage is gone .  Clifford is gone, thank god.  New coach preaching faster pace.  Batum moving back to the SF spot, his "natural position", and is healthy.  Had some nice stretches last year and put up some huge assist and rebound games...still one of the best SG/SF that get you assists later in the draft.  A lot of factors are in place for him to have a "bounce back" year, which would probably mean a FG closer to 45%, which he's done 5 out his 10 years in the league (not since 2013 when he shot almost 47%), and closer to 1.8-2 threes/game, both of which would bump his scoring up closer to 15+ instead of, say 11 or 12.   Buying?  Seen him last up into the 70-90 range.  

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70-90 looks like a floor for him. Hornets look like they rather want to fight and not rebuild so hopefully he's not dealt midseason. Other factors you mentioned sound promising so basically it all comes to health... Anyway... buying around that range.

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haven't owned him in some time, but from the outside looking in it feels like he's injured a lot?

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18 hours ago, darnellh said:

Tony Parker stopped practice 2 plays into his first 5 on 5 scrimmage to yell at Nic Batum for a lazy pass.

That's a good thing right LOL.  Nic is so passive it's annoying as heck.  He'd be a better shooter if he was more assertive I think.  

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On 9/5/2018 at 3:12 AM, slmroz said:

70-90 looks like a floor for him. Hornets look like they rather want to fight and not rebuild so hopefully he's not dealt midseason. Other factors you mentioned sound promising so basically it all comes to health... Anyway... buying around that range.

 

He finished 100 last year (per my leagues custom settings on BBM) so I would say his floor is a little lower than that since he’s another year past his prime and the Hornets are getting younger. I’m not drafting him unless I am punting FG% and he’s available late like rounds 9-11 in 12 team which I’m guessing he won’t be. 

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12 hours ago, krupocin said:

 

He finished 100 last year (per my leagues custom settings on BBM) so I would say his floor is a little lower than that since he’s another year past his prime and the Hornets are getting younger. I’m not drafting him unless I am punting FG% and he’s available late like rounds 9-11 in 12 team which I’m guessing he won’t be. 

 

No Dwight killing teammates values this season. That joy falls to the wiz... Makes me a little worried about porter and beal (they're probably ok!?) 

 

I think batum will have a nice year without Dwight. Maybe not up to his peak days but I can see him easily around the 40-60 range (likely somewhere in the middle) 

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1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

 

No Dwight killing teammates values this season. That joy falls to the wiz... Makes me a little worried about porter and beal (they're probably ok!?) 

 

I think batum will have a nice year without Dwight. Maybe not up to his peak days but I can see him easily around the 40-60 range (likely somewhere in the middle) 

 

I hope you’re right but Batum’s rank since joining Charlotte have been 59, 60, 100. I honestly don’t think there’s any chance he will beat all of that at age 30 but hey crazier things have happened. I would say the odds aren’t good personally though and would think of a 50-60 ranking as a best case gamble and draft him more like a later round value otherwise you’re just setting yourself up for disappointment, just my opinion of course. In my 16 years doing fantasy what I’ve found is that hoping for a player’s value to increase when past their prime and not in a new situation almost never works out. Sure

 

Dwight is gone but his game really doesn’t overlap with Batum’s all that much. Dwight averaged 11 shot attempts last year while Cody Zeller had 8 per game the year before in a few less minutes. Batum’s shots per-36 dropped by 1.6 last year but he’s also a year older. Who knows maybe getting those 1.6 per game back will help but I just don’t see it personally since that’s never where his value came from. His boards per-36 barely dropped and his assists didn’t change at all he just played a little less really and I don’t think that will change much since he’s another year older and the team drafted Miles Bridges. Even if he does better than last season I wouldnt put him at 40-50. I wouldn’t even be surprised if his playing time falls off once Charlotte inevitably falls out of playoff contention. Maybe I’m wrong but thats just my 2 cents.

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50-70 rank is probably a better estimate of where I see him ending. Might have been a bit optimistic in 40.

 

But 11 shots from Dwight is ignoring the FTs he soaks up and his high usage. Charlotte was one of the worst passing teams in the league last year. That's what Dwight does to teams. It's like end of career shaq going around ruining teams flow and system. End of career ball dominant, post threat bigs that can't shoot are simply awful for the modern NBA . Book it now the wizards are bad next year. In all likelihood I can see Charlotte replacing the wizards in the payoffs. Like I said I'm a little wary of the wizards players avec Dwight and Beal and Wall are already overrated and the lower scoring of porter already makes him a highly fluctuating player (see Danny Green going from top 25 to >100 in the space of a season mostly due to a drop in an already low offensive contribution) 

 

Batum in a more fluid system. At a discount rate. That I'm more interested in... 

Edited by Jake the snake
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1 hour ago, krupocin said:

 

I hope you’re right but Batum’s rank since joining Charlotte have been 59, 60, 100. I honestly don’t think there’s any chance he will beat all of that at age 30 but hey crazier things have happened. I would say the odds aren’t good personally though and would think of a 50-60 ranking as a best case gamble and draft him more like a later round value otherwise you’re just setting yourself up for disappointment, just my opinion of course. In my 16 years doing fantasy what I’ve found is that hoping for a player’s value to increase when past their prime and not in a new situation almost never works out. Sure

 

Dwight is gone but his game really doesn’t overlap with Batum’s all that much. Dwight averaged 11 shot attempts last year while Cody Zeller had 8 per game the year before in a few less minutes. Batum’s shots per-36 dropped by 1.6 last year but he’s also a year older. Who knows maybe getting those 1.6 per game back will help but I just don’t see it personally since that’s never where his value came from. His boards per-36 barely dropped and his assists didn’t change at all he just played a little less really and I don’t think that will change much since he’s another year older and the team drafted Miles Bridges. Even if he does better than last season I wouldnt put him at 40-50. I wouldn’t even be surprised if his playing time falls off once Charlotte inevitably falls out of playoff contention. Maybe I’m wrong but thats just my 2 cents.

 

You also need to take into account that Batum played mostly SG last year. This year he'll be back as the starting SF, which is his natural position, so he has a pretty good chance tu return to his pre-2017 standards (top 60 most likely)

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50-70 seems fare. I would grab him if he drops past 70. 

 

Reasons for optimism: Batum had nagging injuries last season, goes back to SF (what he calls his "natural position"), and has a new coach that should emphasize more ball movement.

 

 

 

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Feels like he’s been dealing with nagging injuries since his final year in Portland.

 

Always plays through injury and rushes to come back which has consistently affected his performance.

 

I guess its a double edged sword for us fantasy players 

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Batum easily had his worst season in years due to a lingering injury.  I also like him in the 70-80 range.  I'd take him all day long after 80.  Parker might make him better.  

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On 8.09.2018 at 7:01 AM, krupocin said:

 

He finished 100 last year (per my leagues custom settings on BBM) so I would say his floor is a little lower than that since he’s another year past his prime and the Hornets are getting younger. I’m not drafting him unless I am punting FG% and he’s available late like rounds 9-11 in 12 team which I’m guessing he won’t be. 

 

To me - getting rid of Dwight is not a typical "getting younger" move. I think they still want to fight. At least now it looks like this. On the other hand - moving Howard should make them play faster and we could hear some news with similar flavour.
Also, Batum is expected to be moved more to SF which IMO raises his value.
And finally - he's not even 30 yet and not a type of player that should quickly slide down after 28. So I don't expect a fast downhill just yet. Last year, indeed, was a disaster for him, mainly because of the injury. 16/17 per game rank - 70, 15/16 - 60.

The only thing that would worry me is his health.

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I was happy to get him as well as Jeremy lamb. I think this was the best draft I’ve had ever. Good luck to other owners!

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45 minutes ago, brosephd said:

prime bounce back candidate?

 absolutely ... I owned him last year and he was banged up all year.. i think he is a bit undervalue this year. I am targeting him and Lamb for that matter..

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10 minutes ago, MNDOGG said:

 absolutely ... I owned him last year and he was banged up all year.. i think he is a bit undervalue this year. I am targeting him and Lamb for that matter..

I drafted them both this year and expect a good solid bounce back.

 

Seeing as ESPN completely removed the player rater it's hard to look back but does anybody know how Batum ranked prior to last season?

 

I am sure he was consistently a top 60 guy.

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21 minutes ago, Kamura said:

I drafted them both this year and expect a good solid bounce back.

 

Seeing as ESPN completely removed the player rater it's hard to look back but does anybody know how Batum ranked prior to last season?

 

I am sure he was consistently a top 60 guy.

50-60 consistently

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If you're getting him past 75, you're getting a good deal. I think he'll definitely have a bounce back this year.

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Fully recovered from the injury.

Going back to his natural position at small forward.

Hornets are going to play at a higher pace.

Dude is prime for a major bounce back.

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1 hour ago, chimera said:

This guy plays SG -> Center.  When we getting some proper positioning on ESPN?

 


With how ESPN fantasy basketball is faring this year, he'll probably get all his positions removed and only be eligible as a bench player.  

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I really don’t care what position he plays as long as he’s productive and don’t doodoo on my FG%

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