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Nikola Jokic 2018-19 Season Outlook

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12 hours ago, Stefan said:

 

Ok soooooooo

Kyrie scares u with injuries... but Love aka THE SOFTEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE doesn't ? That's just strange to me...

 

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Celtics are loaded and the Cavs are gutted. The opportunity for Kyrie is far less appealing than the opportunity for Love. Apparently, I do not like Love nearly enough. I own him no where and he is going in the top 15-18 and I am not spending that type of pick on him, yet. You have to apply some level of context, right? Injuries are part of a risk vs. reward equation that has way too many variables to apply a blanket statement to....like roster construction preferences, league settings, first round pick choice, etc. 

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Turnovers were high last night but loved the aggression. I have the 4th pick in my draft coming up and can't decide between Jokic and KAT. Joker is so much fun to watch play that I might just have to pull the trigger. I see some people here saying he'll be #1 which I just don't think is possible but I would bet money he's in the top 6 on the season.

 

Not nervous about the TO

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10 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

Turnovers were high last night but loved the aggression. I have the 4th pick in my draft coming up and can't decide between Jokic and KAT. Joker is so much fun to watch play that I might just have to pull the trigger. I see some people here saying he'll be #1 which I just don't think is possible but I would bet money he's in the top 6 on the season.

 

Not nervous about the TO


Well post all star (last 24 games) Nikola was TOP 3 just behind AD and KAT (9 cat, per game value) :) 

sooooooooo

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1 hour ago, greatestmetfan said:

Turnovers were high last night but loved the aggression. I have the 4th pick in my draft coming up and can't decide between Jokic and KAT. Joker is so much fun to watch play that I might just have to pull the trigger. I see some people here saying he'll be #1 which I just don't think is possible but I would bet money he's in the top 6 on the season.

 

Not nervous about the TO

The Lakers were playing at a super high pace and I think the Nuggets looked like they were still getting their legs, which is totally normal this time of year. Personally, I have KAT above Jokic and I think KAT falling to #4 is a great get for you. End of the day, KAT and Jokic do slightly different things, so it probably comes down to your preference on how you want to build. You don't need to base your selection off of a player rater ranking. They are both in that top 6ish range so it is going to come down to you leveraging their stats with who you surround them with on your roster. 

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I’m playing a 12 player, H2H, 9cat league.

My pick is 9th and I think Jokic is dropping to me. Was wondering who would be your 2nd pick here:

Butler, wall, Jrue, Lowry 

 

3rd pick:

Gobert, Drummond, green, Harris

 

4th pick:

Gasol, love, Aldridge, DeRozan  

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5 minutes ago, Lionhead94 said:

I’m playing a 12 player, H2H, 9cat league.

My pick is 9th and I think Jokic is dropping to me. Was wondering who would be your 2nd pick here:

Butler, wall, Jrue, Lowry 

 

3rd pick:

Gobert, Drummond, green, Harris

 

4th pick:

Gasol, love, Aldridge, DeRozan  

I think you are hoping a lot of players fall here (Jokic, Gobert, Drummond, Love, Derozan) if they fall into the rounds you say they will i would go Jokic, Butler, Gobert, Derozan. Gives you a nice all around team and then you can start specialising in future rounds. However, i doubt some of those players fall that far.

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7 minutes ago, PaddyAustralia said:

I think you are hoping a lot of players fall here (Jokic, Gobert, Drummond, Love, Derozan) if they fall into the rounds you say they will i would go Jokic, Butler, Gobert, Derozan. Gives you a nice all around team and then you can start specialising in future rounds. However, i doubt some of those players fall that far.

Yeah I doubt Gobert and Derozan fall to the 3rd and 4th round respectively. Jokic and Butler is a very plausible and a very strong pairing though.

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gobert on 3rd round would be crazy. even jokic falling to 9th would be crazy imho :) 

 

If these happens, time to change leagues to a competitive one :) 

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I traded my second pick (16) and fourth pick (40) for the 22nd and 27th pick and I get my 33rd pick as well. So I have a high chance to get all those players, I hope so ??.

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10 minutes ago, Lionhead94 said:

If Jimmy Butler gets taken who would you choose between gobert, wall, Jrue 

Personally i would pick Gobert cause then you can heavily target 3s and scoring as Jokic has guard like assists.

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Two questions: would you take Jokic over LBJ? And I hear a lot about punting points with Jokic but feel like he’s one of a few first rounders where you don’t have to punt in H2H?

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30 minutes ago, backyardballer said:

Two questions: would you take Jokic over LBJ? And I hear a lot about punting points with Jokic but feel like he’s one of a few first rounders where you don’t have to punt in H2H?

100% taking Jokic over Lebron. 

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On 10/2/2018 at 7:17 PM, Lionhead94 said:

I’m playing a 12 player, H2H, 9cat league.

My pick is 9th and I think Jokic is dropping to me. Was wondering who would be your 2nd pick here:

Butler, wall, Jrue, Lowry 

 

3rd pick:

Gobert, Drummond, green, Harris

 

4th pick:

Gasol, love, Aldridge, DeRozan  

If I pick Jokic with my first pick, I'd try to build an efficient % team, so guys like butler/Kawhi 2nd round. I'd pass on Drummond and I like Love this season, but hell probably go earlier.

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[Removed Cool Story] i see jokic as a top-5 fantasy player this year with lots of upside. he should end up being no worse than top-10.  i would take him over lebron, curry, and kd.  and he's a major force for leagues that reward you for double-doubles. his best years are here to come and he's preached to the media that he wants to become an all-star this year. denver should have a high powered offense and they have a ton of playmakers who can feed him the ball and also score off his crisp passes. towns is the only player in dynasty i'd  right the ship over jokic, but i can't name a single other player i'd definitively take over jokic. he's that good. that talented. unleash nikola# 2019.  let the hype train leave the station.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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5 hours ago, nyknicksrulenba said:

[Removed Cool Story] i see jokic as a top-5 fantasy player this year with lots of upside. he should end up being no worse than top-10.  i would take him over lebron, curry, and kd.  and he's a major force for leagues that reward you for double-doubles. his best years are here to come and he's preached to the media that he wants to become an all-star this year. denver should have a high powered offense and they have a ton of playmakers who can feed him the ball and also score off his crisp passes. towns is the only player in dynasty i'd  right the ship over jokic, but i can't name a single other player i'd definitively take over jokic. he's that good. that talented. unleash nikola# 2019.  let the hype train leave the station.

Can you really hype a 23 year old that is already a guy being picked early in round 1? Guys like Jokic are already in the 3-8 overall tier. There isn't too much higher you can go unless KAT and AD suffer injuries. He is already in the Harden, Giannis, KD tier. Giannis, Jokic, KAT, and AD are going to be that elite tier for a long time. I think Jokic has a cap to his fantasy value until he increases his stocks. His %s and overall game will always make him elite, but until the stocks increase I don't see him getting to the AD level, which is an insane level. 

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38 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Can you really hype a 23 year old that is already a guy being picked early in round 1? Guys like Jokic are already in the 3-8 overall tier. There isn't too much higher you can go unless KAT and AD suffer injuries. He is already in the Harden, Giannis, KD tier. Giannis, Jokic, KAT, and AD are going to be that elite tier for a long time. I think Jokic has a cap to his fantasy value until he increases his stocks. His %s and overall game will always make him elite, but until the stocks increase I don't see him getting to the AD level, which is an insane level. 

I think he could get to that level without the stocks if he could up his scoring to 23 a game while maintaining the 6 assists a game. Elite passing is just something that isn't in Anthony Davis's skill set so he has that on him. If he increases scoring and can continue 1 steal a game and just under 1 block we could see him slide to top 3.

 

Obviously as it stands ADs defense is off the charts and it's why he's going number 1 in drafts, but I don't think Jokic needs to do that. 23/11/6/1/.08 on above 50% shooting would make him a top 3 fantasy player. I don't think we'll see him surpass AD ever but I do think he will outperform KAT this year.

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9 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

I think he could get to that level without the stocks if he could up his scoring to 23 a game while maintaining the 6 assists a game. Elite passing is just something that isn't in Anthony Davis's skill set so he has that on him. If he increases scoring and can continue 1 steal a game and just under 1 block we could see him slide to top 3.

 

Obviously as it stands ADs defense is off the charts and it's why he's going number 1 in drafts, but I don't think Jokic needs to do that. 23/11/6/1/.08 on above 50% shooting would make him a top 3 fantasy player. I don't think we'll see him surpass AD ever but I do think he will outperform KAT this year.

I think we are saying the same thing. I just think you need stocks if you are going to crack the #1 spot in fantasy or you just need to be off the charts in the counting stats. Anyway, Jokic is good and I don't think anyone debates that anymore. 

 

I would like to follow up on the KAT comments...so you think Jokic will outperform KAT this year. I don't really think that is too bold or shocking, but I want to ask you to expand on it a bit for snake drafts. We all get assigned a pick. If you are picking 3, 4, or 5 and let's say AD goes 1 and Harden goes 2 in this scenario, and you get your choice of KAT or Jokic and you are on the clock who are you picking? 

 

I was faced with the option of Jokic or KD at #6 in an 8 cat draft and I went Jokic. I think he is a pretty unique statline to build around. I love that his team is going to be in the playoff mix and needing to grind for wins. All the things I like about the Nuggets from a macro point of view I dislike about the Warriors. That was my thought process towards it, but I always go into drafts where I have the 4-8 pick knowing I will probably face the question of Jokic or KD/Steph....I never considered the question being KAT or Jokic. Interested to hear your thoughts and logic. 

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@thezing1  I have to cover a couple factors of my thought process. If you're picking 3 Giannis has to be picked 28/10/5/1.5/1.5 with high % cannot be passed up.

 

If you have the 4 like I do the experts would say you have 3 choices: KD, Curry or KAT. Now I think KD and Curry will be rested come playoff time for H2H so there a no for me in my H2H league. If it's rotisserie give me Curry or KD and flip a coin on which one you want I'd take either without question.

 

Alright so the factors are out of the way and the experts would say KAT all day at a projection of 23/12/2 with 1.8 blocks on 50%+ shooting it's a solid pick. My thing that's driving Jokic > KAT is what happened with Paul Millsap in March last season. Millsap comes back, and Jokic takes 22 shots across 3 games barely does anything. Sources have said Millsap took him aside and basically said you're the alpha and it's your team. From then on (last 18 games) per BBM Jokic is #2 in fantasy with whopping averages of 24/11.5/6.5/1.4/1 on.538% shooting.

 

If you recall early last season Jokic was having okay games not great because he was deferring to Millsap so it hurt his overall season value and often fantasy owners only look at overall stats and not these specifics. I think Millsap taking the step back changed Jokic's demeanor and I think we're about to get a full season of the last 18 games of last year. It's Jokic's team, everyone knows their role. I'll be picking Jokic at the 4 with no hesitation. 

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@greatestmetfanThanks for the detailed post....so H2H you are taking Jokic at 4 (assuming AD, Harden, Giannis go 1-3). And roto you are taking KD and Curry before Jokic?

 

I tend to not pay too much attention to the "experts". They have a louder voice or platform, but they are just making educated guess on projections like a lot of the posters in these forums. "Experts" are always right in preseason and rarely do they critically evaluate themselves at the end of the year. Ok, enough about experts....yes, I remember Jokic's season last year. Yes, I know about Millsaps influences, both positive and negative, last year. My one concern is the last 18 games were in make or break playoff mode. Every game was must win. It is VERY difficult to keep that pace all season. Almost impossible. We see Lebron coast through the season and turn it on down the stretch often. That is my one concern about extrapolating that 18 game sample set over an 82 game season and calling it the expectation. His minutes spiked up post ASB last year. Here is what I am looking at....

 

Last 2 months per 36 minute #s versus the season long per 36 #s. That would take into account the minutes boost down the stretch. The per 36 aren't that much better. 2.5 more points, 0.5 more assists, a little less rebounds, and a little better %'s. Nothing too crazy. So it comes down to minutes IMO. And I just don't trust Malone to give Jokic 35 mpg. I wish he would, but that team has depth. This is really a deep dive on Jokic and it feels like I am nitpicking, but at the end of the day I like him more than Curry and KD in roto because I think the Warriors all take plenty of rest throughout the year. 

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Jokic fell to #9 in a 10man 9cat league. 8th pick auto-drafted Westbrook. Grabbed Simmons with Pick #12, Booker #39, Gobert #42!

Edited by THE_MAGIC_MAN
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52 minutes ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

Jokic fell to #9 in a 10man 9cat league. 8th pick auto-drafted Westbrook. Grabbed Simmons with Pick #12, Booker #39, Gobert #42!

Man, just reading this site gives me a lesson in how much different category leagues are than pure points leagues. In my leagues, Harden/Westbrook are #1/2 without question

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1 hour ago, Dominator83 said:

Man, just reading this site gives me a lesson in how much different category leagues are than pure points leagues. In my leagues, Harden/Westbrook are #1/2 without question

yeah point leagues sucks

 

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