ST. STEVEN

Ito Smith 2018 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, Mikeyvegas said:

Ito looks like the better runner and you guys are guessing his usuage could increase? You all do not own Coleman, I presume?

Own both in different leagues.  As of now Coleman is the fantasy asset to own but if Falcons go more 50/50 split prefer Ito.  His game resembles Freeman.  Coleman doesn't look as versatile.  See my previous analysis.  Coleman better in change of pace backup role.  Just can't run between tackles and needs space to operate.  

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1 hour ago, Szer0 said:

The falcons is one of the teams that totally buys in into a rbbc... An initial 50/50 would be seen as positive, with opportunities later to possibly match the Freeman role snaps later on

 

And a pass-catching RB with a 50% timeshare on one of the best offenses in football, who may also be the preferred weapon near the goal line, certainly seems worth speculating on in most leagues.

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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7 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I said Ito Smith excelled as a receiver, based mainly on his scouting report, not necessarily on his first 5 games as an NFL rookie. You tried to invalidate that by pointing out Smiths 9 targets thus far in 2018.

I didn't "try to invalidate anything". You overexaggerated his efficacy in the passing game. Zay Jones had the best hands in the draft last year. How's that playing out in the NFL? Pre-draft grade of Jones's utility in the passing game aren't anywhere near where Jones's hands were, either. I do plenty of pre-draft research on backs and receivers for the draft to make decisions on them for fantasy. Your best-case scenario for an argument on this one is probably to blame it on playcalling, but Atlanta isn't firing their staff anytime soon.

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3 hours ago, miasma16 said:

I didn't "try to invalidate anything". You overexaggerated his efficacy in the passing game. Zay Jones had the best hands in the draft last year. How's that playing out in the NFL? Pre-draft grade of Jones's utility in the passing game aren't anywhere near where Jones's hands were, either. I do plenty of pre-draft research on backs and receivers for the draft to make decisions on them for fantasy. Your best-case scenario for an argument on this one is probably to blame it on playcalling, but Atlanta isn't firing their staff anytime soon.

 

Part of my post said that Ito Smith “excels as a receiver”.  You bolded that one particular statement, and replied with,

 

“He has 9 targets. The rest of this (the rest of my post) is valid though”.

 

In other words, you implied the part about excelling as a receiver was not valid based on only having 9 targets.

 

So I provided Ito’s targets per snap statistic along with another good receiving RB’s same stat for reference. So where exuactly did I “over exaggerate Ito’s efficiency in the passing game”? I didn’t exaggerate anything at all. 

 

The bottom line is, Ito Smith is a good receiving back. This is taken directly from his scouting profile on NFL.com-

 

Leaned on as a pass-catching option

Averaged 10.5 yards per catch over the last three years

Hands are natural

Runs mostly angle routes and flats, but usually gets good separation out of his breaks

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/ito-smith?id=32462018-0002-5599-2432-018002e5df8d

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Part of my post said that Ito Smith “excels as a receiver”.  You bolded that one particular statement, and replied with,

 

“He has 9 targets. The rest of this (the rest of my post) is valid though”.

 

In other words, you implied the part about excelling as a receiver was not valid based on only having 9 targets.

Was I unclear? You saying that he excels as a receiver is wrong.

 

2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

So I provided Ito’s targets per snap statistic along with another good receiving RB’s same stat for reference.

Right. You used a useless 4 game sample as your statistical foundation. You're trying to claim that he excelled as a receiver in college as your fallback. He didn't. You read a single scouting report, I did significantly more research on every likely draft pick at RB/WR in this draft and years of others. I'd suggest you drop this.

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12 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Was I unclear? You saying that he excels as a receiver is wrong.

 

Right. You used a useless 4 game sample as your statistical foundation. You're trying to claim that he excelled as a receiver in college as your fallback. He didn't. You read a single scouting report, I did significantly more research on every likely draft pick at RB/WR in this draft and years of others. I'd suggest you drop this.

 

So... is he good catch ball or no

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17 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Was I unclear? You saying that he excels as a receiver is wrong.

 

Right. You used a useless 4 game sample as your statistical foundation. You're trying to claim that he excelled as a receiver in college as your fallback. He didn't. You read a single scouting report, I did significantly more research on every likely draft pick at RB/WR in this draft and years of others. I'd suggest you drop this.

Ok. Despite professional NFL scouts saying he’s a good receiver, I’ll take miasma16’s word that he isn’t. Thanks for your help.

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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1 minute ago, smeeze said:

So... is he good catch ball or no

He's fine for a rookie. Not exactly Marshall Faulk, not exactly Derrick Henry. It never stood out on tape and there's no reason to expect he'll have some major impact in the passing game this year (or any other year). He's fine.

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1 minute ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Ok. Despite professional NFL scouts saying he’s a good receiver, I’ll take miasma16’s word that he isn’t. Thanks for your help.

Yeah, I would also take my word on it from actually watching him play football, as opposed to what you gleaned from googling and skimming 1 of his scouting reports.

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12 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Yeah, I would also take my word on it from actually watching him play football, as opposed to what you gleaned from googling and skimming 1 of his scouting reports.

 

No offense, but yeah, I’d trust a professional scouting report before you. And your assumption that I “skimmed” only one scouting report is wrong. Let’s agree to disagree.

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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Don't trust scouts. I mean, c'mon, look how often they've been wrong about so many players. Go back and read the scouting report on Tom Brady, Arian Foster, Aaron Rodgers (look how far he dropped).

 

Fantasy is only fun if you trust your own eyes. :) Kinda boring to just rely on folks who are paid well for doing what you could do better with your own eyes. ;)

 

(That also means trust your own eyes over anything you read from a random post on an internet forum. Just trust yourself. You.)

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Perhaps not the best place to comment (in a Ito thread), but you guys are sort of discussing what has been a problem for me in fantasy football (but I've gotten better at it):

I am actually pretty good at evaluating a young player - who's got skills, who's JAG, etc.

...but that doesn't necessarily correspond to fantasy production.

 

I've found it's good to take a chance on certain guys...maybe take a mid to late flier on a couple of others.

But it could take games and years for some of these guys to pan out. I've drafted guys like Boyd and Parker 2 years ago. I drafted guys like Dede Westbrook and K. Hunt last year.

 

Finding guys with talent is one thing; finding guys in good situations to help you in fantasy football is another.

Just sayin' B)

 

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1 hour ago, bigslick631 said:

Freeman officially out. I just picked up ITO. Strongly considering starting him over Miller. How sad is that :(

I think I’m doing the same...

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Coleman used to not be a beacon of availability as well so Ito is shaping out to possibly be very valuable as the season grinds on.  

 

Do you guys feel he would get 15-20 touches if Coleman and Freeman were injured or is he not that kind of back?

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3 hours ago, Stratocasters said:

Perhaps not the best place to comment (in a Ito thread), but you guys are sort of discussing what has been a problem for me in fantasy football (but I've gotten better at it):

I am actually pretty good at evaluating a young player - who's got skills, who's JAG, etc.

...but that doesn't necessarily correspond to fantasy production.

 

I've found it's good to take a chance on certain guys...maybe take a mid to late flier on a couple of others.

But it could take games and years for some of these guys to pan out. I've drafted guys like Boyd and Parker 2 years ago. I drafted guys like Dede Westbrook and K. Hunt last year.

 

Finding guys with talent is one thing; finding guys in good situations to help you in fantasy football is another.

Just sayin' B)

 

 

You play fantasy football, Barry?Image result for patting self on the back gif gif

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2 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

 

You play fantasy football, Barry?Image result for patting self on the back gif gif

 

 

Actually, it wasn't bragging. I'm not drafting an NFL team - we draft fantasy teams. Tough to figure out if/when someone is going to blossom fantasy-wise...or just fade away.

But to answer your question - yes, I play fantasy football. And don't call me Barry. :ph34r:

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He's got TD's in the last two games and he still got run when it was a three headed backfield last week. 

 

Falcons in deep s--- record wise, so coaches are gonna roll as optimal as possible, their jobs depend on it. 

 

Welcome to the crib Ito Smith. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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Watch this :ph34r:

 

Buy signal. 

 

Snag Smith now or never see him again. 

 

 

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So, I just picked up Ito Smith in FA. What I'm trying to decide is if I should start him as my #2 flex in a PPR or if he should ride my bench.

 

Now I know better than to mention the player I'd replace, but what kind of points might I expect this week from Ito vs the Falcons?

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If his scoring so far this season when playing only with Coleman is anything to go by then it’s around 50 scrimmage yards and 3 receptions with a 50% chance of a TD.

 

Anything more than that is wishful thinking.

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As an Ito owner who got him for free in most leagues, I hope he vastly outplays Coleman this week, and that Coleman gets traded to the Eagles. Ito would be the new Coleman, aka solid flex if Devonta plays, aka RB1 with Devonta out. The latter seems to be the norm now btw. Fire up your Itos!

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6 minutes ago, frog34 said:

As an Ito owner who got him for free in most leagues, I hope he vastly outplays Coleman this week, and that Coleman gets traded to the Eagles. Ito would be the new Coleman, aka solid flex if Devonta plays, aka RB1 with Devonta out. The latter seems to be the norm now btw. Fire up your Itos!

 

Ito was drafted as Coleman's heir apparent and I warned everyone in the Coleman thread that he would be splitting time with Ito if Freeman ever went down.  Lo and behold.  


Ito will be flex worthy moving forward until Freeman returns which is anyone's guess.

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1 minute ago, cheezor42 said:

 

Ito was drafted as Coleman's heir apparent and I warned everyone in the Coleman thread that he would be splitting time with Ito if Freeman ever went down.  Lo and behold.  


Ito will be flex worthy moving forward until Freeman returns which is anyone's guess.

If Ito doesnt score, his line wont be too good.

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