sjm76

Wendell Smallwood 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Szer0 said:

All I see is yada yada I own Clement and needs to sound off in a Smallwood thread. 

 

You had provided no evidence that Clement will be the lead back when Sproles is back, given, that during week 1, where it was a 4 horses rbbc... Clement was not even second in the rotation.

 

Last night, Clement was not even playing the most snap... If your argument was "pitch count", Clement was running during garbage time, doesn't sound like a back on a pitch count to me.

 

To keep it simple instead of typing out an paper over this. No, nobody knows a s--- how this rotation will pan out when all three gets active during a game

 

And all I see is someone with no logical argument (or even opinion it seems) that's using the last tactic in their arsenal to try and "win" and internet convo - "you own that guy so you just think he's the bestest ever!"  I'm here to have grown up conversations and talk sports, not argue like a 5 year old over whose Barbie is cooler.  So if you have something relevant or meaningful to add then maybe you can do it without the tantrum.

 

So basically what I'm reading is your whole stance is that you have no opinion?  Nobody knows for sure what the usage will be and everyone will get work so why bother trying to predict who gets what?  If that's your whole premise then what's the point of even posting in the first place?  The whole reason for the forum and discussion is to try and predict what will happen in the future to use it to your advantage.  If you feel that Sproles will lead the committee and get the most touches then speak up and say so, but if your point is "who knows, could be anyone" then I don't know what we're even discussing.

 

My stance is this (and disclaimer, I'm just reading the tea leaves like everyone else, I've never said "this is what will happen for sure" or acted like I know more than anyone else) - it's always been a committee, but one that Ajayi was the head of and saw 40-50% of snaps.  Sproles we don't have any significant sample size on the last couple years because he's always hurt, but based on our 1 week sample size he saw about 40% of snaps as well.  The #3 back in Week 1 saw the other 20% of snaps, who was Clement.  Now Ajayi is gone, and outside of a trade (which obviously could drastically change things), we now have Clement, Smallwood, and Sproles left to fill these 3 committee spots.  Yes, I know Josh Adams is there too, but it's not a 4-RB committee as you claim.  Just like in Week 1 with Smallwood, last night Adams was a "use in case of emergency" guy.  Not part of the rotation.

 

So here are our logical options (which again, I know the breakdown could be any number of combinations, but here are the ones I think are most likely):

 

Option 1 - with Ajayi injured, Clement takes up his previous snap count at 40-50% usage.  This makes most sense to me and is what I'm saying I think will happen.  He was and always has been ahead of Smallwood on the depth chart.  He looked better last night.  Sproles at 35 years old and 5'6" isn't going to take on any more than the 40ish% he was already going to.  Smallwood is the 3rd part of the committee that will probably see 20-30% of snaps when/if Sproles gets healthy, and more in the interim (pretty even split with Clement if no Sproles playing).

 

Option 2 - Sproles was #2 back in Week 1 / shared the workload with Ajayi, so I guess your theory is everyone moves up a peg on the depth chart and Sproles is the head of the committee?  Well he was already at a 40% snap count, and as previously stated he's 35 and 5'6" and hasn't carried a large load in years.  So somehow I guess despite those facts Sproles takes on an even bigger workload than the 40%, and tries not to get broken again, and tries to fill Ajayi's running between the tackles role with his tiny body.  Hmmmm . . .

 

Option 3 - last night was a preview showing us that Pederson prefers Smallwood in the head of the committee role, and he continues to get the 40-50% usage.  This is certainly possible, but given that he has been pretty ineffective, and that he's always been behind Clement on the depth chart, I don't personally see it as likely.  But I could see how someone could argue this.  If I'm putting stock behind a scenario though, it isn't this one for me.  And even in this scenario, there's still another 50-60% of snap counts to share between Sproles and Clement, which could theoretically make them all fantasy relevant to a degree.  In PPR obviously the ones that catch more passes will have more value, and if one emerges as the GL/RZ guy more so than the others that would give that player a boost too.  

 

So which is it @Szer0?  Do you really think Sproles is able to take on even more workload than Week 1?  Or is your stance still you don't know?

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6 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

And all I see is someone with no logical argument (or even opinion it seems) that's using the last tactic in their arsenal to try and "win" and internet convo - "you own that guy so you just think he's the bestest ever!"  I'm here to have grown up conversations and talk sports, not argue like a 5 year old over whose Barbie is cooler.  So if you have something relevant or meaningful to add then maybe you can do it without the tantrum.

 

So basically what I'm reading is your whole stance is that you have no opinion?  Nobody knows for sure what the usage will be and everyone will get work so why bother trying to predict who gets what?  If that's your whole premise then what's the point of even posting in the first place?  The whole reason for the forum and discussion is to try and predict what will happen in the future to use it to your advantage.  If you feel that Sproles will lead the committee and get the most touches then speak up and say so, but if your point is "who knows, could be anyone" then I don't know what we're even discussing.

 

...

 

So which is it @Szer0?  Do you really think Sproles is able to take on even more workload than Week 1?  Or is your stance still you don't know?

 

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Just now, smeeze said:

 

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Hahahahah

 

Smallwood has high usage and was ineffective. Hope he can change things around. And hopefully no running back is traded for!

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5 hours ago, mjagger42 said:

I don't get the chest-thumping and arguing over two mediocre backs. They're cracking the champagne open in the Clement thread lol. This is going to be an ugly three-man RBBC soon. So enjoy, I guess. 


I'm with you on this one.  I own one share each of Smallwood and Clement and wouldn't look at either as anything but a bye week filler. I think either has the potential (like any RB) to have a good day, e.g. positive game script, long run on a busted defensive play, etc. But IMHO no one in the Eagles backfield is a must start.  It's like trying to figure out which (if any) RB on the Bucs is worth owning. 

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From my eyes Clement is the better back. 

He should be garnering around 60+% of the snaps. 

 

If Sproles is healthy he will give about 25% 

Smallwood takes what is left 

 

everything changes if they bring in a new RB

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The reason it matters is because of this offense.  Once Wentz gets back to 100% health and it gets clicking, it is one of the 3-4 most lethal in the entire NFL.  And you want the primary running back in this offense on your fantasy team.  Even if he isn't getting 100% of the snaps.  And even if he is not some superstar just standing alone.  Because that back is going to get some volume and a lot of red zone opportunities.

 

From what we know right now, barring a dramatic trade, the guy appears to be Clement.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The reason it matters is because of this offense.  Once Wentz gets back to 100% health and it gets clicking, it is one of the 3-4 most lethal in the entire NFL.  And you want the primary running back in this offense on your fantasy team.  Even if he isn't getting 100% of the snaps.  And even if he is not some superstar just standing alone.  Because that back is going to get some volume and a lot of red zone opportunities.

 

From what we know right now, barring a dramatic trade, the guy appears to be Clement.


Clements is the slightly better of two mediocre options. Id' be very surprised if da Iggles don't bring in someone else.  Orleans Darkwa wouldn't cost draft capital so he's an option. Same with DMM if they feel he isn't washed up (he probably has as much juice left as JC who just got signed).  I'd be hard pressed to see them trade for Shady unless the Bills just give him away, and PIT probably wouldn't trade Bell to Philly.  No one else out there really makes sense unless the Eagles want to take a chance that someone like Ameer Abdullah exactly has talent they can unlock where the Lions couldn't. 

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26 minutes ago, jumper said:


Clements is the slightly better of two mediocre options. Id' be very surprised if da Iggles don't bring in someone else.  Orleans Darkwa wouldn't cost draft capital so he's an option. Same with DMM if they feel he isn't washed up (he probably has as much juice left as JC who just got signed).  I'd be hard pressed to see them trade for Shady unless the Bills just give him away, and PIT probably wouldn't trade Bell to Philly.  No one else out there really makes sense unless the Eagles want to take a chance that someone like Ameer Abdullah exactly has talent they can unlock where the Lions couldn't. 

You say they have mediocre backs then proceed to name a bunch of bums.

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On 10/12/2018 at 10:05 AM, Gohawks said:

You say they have mediocre backs then proceed to name a bunch of bums.

 

You're looking at them from a fantasy perspective whereas I'm looking at them from a real-life perspective.  The Eagles were willing to trade for Ajayi last year and it's not like he was a HOF level player.  The team philosophy seems to be fine with a bunch of reasonably cheap salaried "bunch of bums" they can proceed to mix and match as needed to get production.  While trading for Bell might sound good to you, the team is trying to manage their salary cap and might be perfectly content with signing "another bum" like the ones I mentioned to put a 4th RB back on the roster if it saves them $10MM plus in salary cap and a draft pick.  Yes Bell is better than someone like Darkwa, but the later is a far smaller cost to the Eagles - no draft picks and probably a much, much cheaper salary cap hit. No one is saying go spend every penny of your FAAB if they sign one of the "bunch of bums" but if you're saying that Clement or Smallwood is much more than a replacement level player then I think you're not looking at them honestly. 

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They got Ajayi for a fourth round pick. McCoy or Bell would cost multiple day 2 picks, in addition to their larger salaries. Moreover, they have other greater needs right now. Last year the Eagles were solid everywhere and were able to get a very good RB nearly for free from a team coached by a guy who gives Gore more carries than Drake.

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3 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

They got Ajayi for a fourth round pick. McCoy or Bell would cost multiple day 2 picks, in addition to their larger salaries. Moreover, they have other greater needs right now. Last year the Eagles were solid everywhere and were able to get a very good RB nearly for free from a team coached by a guy who gives Gore more carries than Drake.

McCoy is 30 years old and a RB. There is no team that would ever trade multiple day 2 picks for him. McCoy should be available for a 4th or 5th rounder unless the Bills stupidly think they can get more.

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6 minutes ago, devaster said:

McCoy is 30 years old and a RB. There is no team that would ever trade multiple day 2 picks for him. McCoy should be available for a 4th or 5th rounder unless the Bills stupidly think they can get more.

 

Agreed. I don't see the Eagles acquiring Bell or McCoy. The cost in draft picks and salary would be high.

 

The one scenario where I can see them acquiring a "name" RB is if Nagy decides that Howard doesn't fit his system, etc. like Gase did with Ajayi and Howard is given away for pennies on the dollar.

 

People note the Eagles felt the need to acquire Ajayi but ignore the Eagles did not acquire a marquee RB in 2016 or the 2017 off-season during the Pederson era. (They had Matthews but he was in a full committee and sometimes rarely used.) They don't seem to value paying big on RB. The biggest free agent the Eagles signed in this era was a WR. 

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In other words, Ajayi could be an aberration where they were able to get a "name" RB because his cost was uniquely and flukily low. It could have been one-off opportunism, not a trend. Anyone think they would have paid a second and third rounder for Ajayi?

Edited by Ace_King

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Need a blowup game from any eagles back (preferably Wendell cause he’s on my squad) so I don’t feel guilty dropping him if it’s not him. I can’t bring myself to drop a back that got 18 carries

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@smeeze @handyandy86 do you still believe in Clement or the running game? It's neither Smallwood nor Clement... not even Sproles. It's now Josh Adams as flavor of London... :ph34r:

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8 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

Is Adams really the back to own or Wendall? Both are available in my league.

 

Probably neither, sadly.

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38 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Probably neither, sadly.

 

Seems like the Eagles are punting the RB position this year in favor of the passing game. Obviously will not be conducive for fantasy owners of their backfield and remains to be seen if they can go deep in the playoffs with seemingly replacement level talent at RB. 

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5 hours ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

Is Adams really the back to own or Wendall? Both are available in my league.

I would rather have Adams to be honest. I think we know what were getting with Smallwood; around 50 yards with a small chance of a td. It's possible Adams could dominate touches and goal line work.

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Dropped him for Doyle, since I'm guessing Doyle will be snagged after his bye and TE is my only weak spot. Would be hard to start Smallwood reliably so he's bench fodder in 12-teams or smaller. 

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7 hours ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

I would rather have Adams to be honest. I think we know what were getting with Smallwood; around 50 yards with a small chance of a td. It's possible Adams could dominate touches and goal line work.

I'd rather have none to be honest. Maybe in a deeper league. None of them are particularly good. And I'd trust Clement or Smallwood more around the GL. None have much value in a 3-headed RBBC that saps the value of all 3. Even then the Eagles have indeed punted on the RB position since losing Ajayi and letting Blount walk. Sucks for fantasy this season.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I'd rather have none to be honest. Maybe in a deeper league. None of them are particularly good. And I'd trust Clement or Smallwood more around the GL. None have much value in a 3-headed RBBC that saps the value of all 3. Even then the Eagles have indeed punted on the RB position since losing Ajayi and letting Blount walk. Sucks for fantasy this season.

That wasn’t the question. If I had to choose, I would pick Adams atm. It’s hard to predict the next break out player, as you all should know. 

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16 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

What do you guys think about Smallwood's value moving forward now that Sproles is going to miss more time with his nagging hamstring

The same as what it was before, maybe worse because he's not that good at running and Adams is getting praise.  In 10 team leagues he might on waivers and in 12 team leagues he is a hold.

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