Jake the snake

Otto Porter 2018-2019 Season outlook

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So what are people's thoughts on Otto this year?
He is definitely a metrics darling; the sort of guy whose metric ranking is higher than his perceived value, which is fair to a slight extent (more in H2H than roto, where he is normally a plug him in and forget about him type of guy), but generally makes him underrated.

He is coming off a really solid year 14.7, 6.4, 2.0, 1.5, 0.5 50/44/83% and 1.4 triples. Beast.

BUT...

 

Dwight Howard. This guy just soaks up usage and hurts teammates fantasy value - Batum (almost everything) and Kemba (ppg and FG%) both took statistical hits last year. This really scares me in terms of value for Porter especially, but also for Beal and Wall. Porter is a low usage shooter and across the board producer, but if he doesn't get the ball as much his value can slip rapidly (see 14-15 Danny Green vs 15-16 Danny Green). Dwight will also kill spacing and won't do the dirty work (screen assists, etc.) that Gortat did, IMO this means probably a slight hit to Otto's FG% too, he won't get as many good looks as normal. And I think his dimes could drop to about 1.2 per game as Howard also kills ball movement.

While I am not saying we will see a Danny Green type drop off (no-way), he could move from being underrated to being overdrafted due to the Dwight factor. I have him ranked in the 30-40 range, but even with a little concern at that. This range probably means I won't get him though. I'm interested to hear other opinions on this...
 

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From the Washington top 3 players, I would worry more about Beal and Wall. As you said, Porter is more of the all-around-player and somehow will always fill the stat sheet. Kemba and Batum needed to have ball in their hands to produce and that's why Howard's presence impacted them that much.

In roto - I have no problems targeting Porter inside top 30.
In H2H - my strategies usually rely on other core building blocks so I rarely get him anyway.

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I'm not so sure about Otto this season. Howard is a black hole, he whines if he doesnt get his touches. He is the very opposite of Gortat. Wall & Beal will try and get theres, and I think IMO it depends on how much they use Oubre and Markieff Morris. Yes I know they are bench players, but they have increased their presence in the rotation Ive noticed last season. 

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14 hours ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

I'm not so sure about Otto this season. Howard is a black hole, he whines if he doesnt get his touches. He is the very opposite of Gortat. Wall & Beal will try and get theres, and I think IMO it depends on how much they use Oubre and Markieff Morris.

 

If there's any coaching there, it all wouldn't just come down to whining and "getting theres" IMO.
If we have a 58.1 EFG% and 60.2 TS% perimeter player (not to mention - we're paying him some serious money), we just have to use him in our offense.

As for Oubre - I think he'll cut a bit in Kieff's PF playing time. Morris on the other side can play more a small ball center behind Dwight who is not able to play 30+ mpg anymore.

Edited by slmroz

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Otto has been told to take every three that is open for him by his coach. If he can get his threes to over 2 and maintain his defensive stats, he will be a beast this season!

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Probably the most underrated player right now.  He has years of proven top 20 value in 9 cat roto and youth on his side and yet even in that format I don’t see him being drafted in the top 20.  And in H2H he slips to 30 often.  I think he’s better than Draymond this year and routinely gets drafted after him.  

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Probably the most underrated player right now.  He has years of proven top 20 value in 9 cat roto and youth on his side and yet even in that format I don’t see him being drafted in the top 20.  And in H2H he slips to 30 often.  I think he’s better than Draymond this year and routinely gets drafted after him.  

 

Thinking about targeting him in the the late third (pick 35). Too early?

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On ESPN he is drafted outside top 50 becouse of the arrival of Dwight. Insane.

Edited by dekciw_1
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7 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

Thinking about targeting him in the the late third (pick 35). Too early?

It’s format dependent.  If it’s 9 cat roto and he’s available at 35 you should snap call, high five your buddy, draft him there.  If it’s 8 cat either roto or H2H then meh you can probably pick someone better there.  If its 9 cat H2H you’ll have to think about team build bc he’s not strong in points and assists for that position so then you might consider a soft punt of either or both of those cats.  I’m not saying he necessitates that sort of punt but it’s something to consider based on who you already have and who you might get next.  

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s format dependent.  If it’s 9 cat roto and he’s available at 35 you should snap call, high five your buddy, draft him there.  If it’s 8 cat either roto or H2H then meh you can probably pick someone better there.  If its 9 cat H2H you’ll have to think about team build bc he’s not strong in points and assists for that position so then you might consider a soft punt of either or both of those cats.  I’m not saying he necessitates that sort of punt but it’s something to consider based on who you already have and who you might get next.  

 

9 Cat H2H. Already in a punt assists build as I am going with KAT with the 3rd pick.

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3 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

9 Cat H2H. Already in a punt assists build as I am going with KAT with the 3rd pick.

BBM has him as 17th given those parameters.  I have no reason to disagree and I would snap call there. 

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On 02/10/2018 at 5:46 AM, dekciw_1 said:

On ESPN he is drafted outside top 50 becouse of the arrival of Dwight. Insane.

 

Had him last year and he was a solid guy that was generally set and forget.
Managed to draft him again this year at #67 because of ESPN's rankings....hahaha :)

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I'm thinking of drafting him at 25 in a (soft) punt assist build with AD as the first pick. I was secretely hoping he would fall down to pick 49 (with ESPN's ridicoulous rankings) but I'm not willing to take that gamble.

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15 hours ago, tifaes said:

I'm thinking of drafting him at 25 in a (soft) punt assist build with AD as the first pick. I was secretely hoping he would fall down to pick 49 (with ESPN's ridicoulous rankings) but I'm not willing to take that gamble.

 

I would be hard pressed to believe there isn't a better player to couple with AD at the top of R3, even when taking an AST punt into account.  e.g. Capela/Gobert + Booker/DeRozan (who should see an uptick in value with Murray sidelined) would seem like a better value.  

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Just now, 80version said:

 

I would be hard pressed to believe there isn't a better player to couple with AD at the top of R3, even when taking an AST punt into account.  e.g. Capela/Gobert + Booker/DeRozan (who should see an uptick in value with Murray sidelined) would seem like a better value.  

 

To be clear, I still like OPJ in the 4th round, or thereafter -- more so for 9-cat (w/ TOV).  

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12 hours ago, 80version said:

 

I would be hard pressed to believe there isn't a better player to couple with AD at the top of R3, even when taking an AST punt into account.  e.g. Capela/Gobert + Booker/DeRozan (who should see an uptick in value with Murray sidelined) would seem like a better value.  

 

Yeah I did this. AD then Capela/CP3 (who still works in a punt assist build well ) 

 

I still got Otto with my 4th pick but in drafts since he's gone earlier 

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He's a must have in Rotisserie. Basketball Gods gave me a break. Got him on a discount

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LOL got him in 6th round 61st pick.

He just kept on dropping. My league doesnt like his outlook after Dwight joined.

Edited by heero78

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I got him for Rubio and a future draft pick. I'm happy. I consider Porter a top-15 asset in dynasty, and in his age-25 season this year, he should start to show us what his best game looks like.

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Where do we place him in a H2H 12 team league? He surely won’t drop to the 50-60 range in competitive leagues. Washington has the best fantasy playoff schedule (week 22-24) with 12 total games so that needs to be factored in as well. 

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5 minutes ago, Supersonics said:

Where do we place him in a H2H 12 team league? He surely won’t drop to the 50-60 range in competitive leagues. Washington has the best fantasy playoff schedule (week 22-24) with 12 total games so that needs to be factored in as well. 

Otto is a guy I always say I will grab but always seem to pass on.  He's roto gold and top 20 in 9 cat roto.  The problem in H2H is that you're looking for counting stats that fit your build in the first few picks and a lot of his value relies on efficiency so you can almost always get someone who produces more counting stats where he could reasonably be drafted.  For example, I drafted in a 16 team 9 cat recently in which I punted FT/Asts.  I grabbed Drummond/Capela with my first two picks.  Then I had an opportunity to pick Otto or Klay in the third round.  Otto is significantly higher ranked given my build in theory but I reasoned that if I didn't pick Klay I would also be punting points.  Given that I was punting ast/Ft they both were fairly similar in efficiency.  Although Otto does get fewer TO, I expected to already be strong in that category.  They get similar blocks.  Otto gets more rebounds and steals but Klay gets more points and threes.  Looking at who else was available I thought it would be easier to make up steals than points so I picked Klay, then Otto was picked before it could get back to me.  In the 4th I picked Gazz.  Given that I think I would rather have Klay/Gazz than Otto/Gazz.  This illustrates the problem with picking Otto at his BBM valuation in 9 cat, it's just difficult to pick him in the second or even third round when you know there are higher volume players.  That said I will certainly pick him up around 40-50 if he falls that far and consider that a discount.  In H2H I generally want an elite point guard and center given the relative scarcity of those positions but I would be happy picking him as my first wing.  For auction I think $20 is a steal and even at $30 you might be getting a discount.

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Otto is a guy I always say I will grab but always seem to pass on.  He's roto gold and top 20 in 9 cat roto.  The problem in H2H is that you're looking for counting stats that fit your build in the first few picks and a lot of his value relies on efficiency so you can almost always get someone who produces more counting stats where he could reasonably be drafted.  For example, I drafted in a 16 team 9 cat recently in which I punted FT/Asts.  I grabbed Drummond/Capela with my first two picks.  Then I had an opportunity to pick Otto or Klay in the third round.  Otto is significantly higher ranked given my build in theory but I reasoned that if I didn't pick Klay I would also be punting points.  Given that I was punting ast/Ft they both were fairly similar in efficiency.  Although Otto does get fewer TO, I expected to already be strong in that category.  They get similar blocks.  Otto gets more rebounds and steals but Klay gets more points and threes.  Looking at who else was available I thought it would be easier to make up steals than points so I picked Klay, then Otto was picked before it could get back to me.  In the 4th I picked Gazz.  Given that I think I would rather have Klay/Gazz than Otto/Gazz.  This illustrates the problem with picking Otto at his BBM valuation in 9 cat, it's just difficult to pick him in the second or even third round when you know there are higher volume players.  That said I will certainly pick him up around 40-50 if he falls that far and consider that a discount.  In H2H I generally want an elite point guard and center given the relative scarcity of those positions but I would be happy picking him as my first wing.  For auction I think $20 is a steal and even at $30 you might be getting a discount.

Here is a ritalin. Good take though.

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On 10/9/2018 at 8:44 AM, Quazza said:

 

Yeah I did this. AD then Capela/CP3 (who still works in a punt assist build well ) 

 

I still got Otto with my 4th pick but in drafts since he's gone earlier 

I did the AD/Porter combo tonight in my 8-cat Roto league draft as well (and got Porter at the very end of the 4th round at pick 48).  The two sandwich picks in between those two players ended up being much different, but that's beside the point (Mitchell and Middleton). :)

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