Saucy

2019 Draft Steals

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My league is morphing into a dynasty/auction/salaries type league (basically Ottoneu.com financially speaking, but run on ESPN/Yahoo). I was wondering who people think are going to be bounce-back candidates, or undervalued players going into next season? Like for example I know I'll have as many shares of Alex Bregman, Whit Merrifield, and Max Muncy as I can. Anyone have anybody they're eyeing?

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I really like Matt Olson for next year. His statcast numbers are fantastic - 93.2 average exit velocity, >50% hard hit rate, xSLG of .527 (actual SLG of .454). I'm not sure how much I believe xSLG, but the point is he hits the ball really hard. Plus he's still only 24, and he made some small plate discipline gains this year. His overall line will probably keep his price down, but I still think the guy who went on a massive homer tear to close 2017 is in there.

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Matt Chapman

L. Gurriel 

Mejia

Moncada

Mazara

Joey Wendle

Bryant

Correa

Mondesi

 

 

Acuna- because I think some people may not realize he’s a top 12 player so a bit undervalued. 

Edited by Members_Only_76
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28 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Matt Chapman

L. Gurriel 

Mejia

Moncada

Mazara

Joey Wendle

Bryant

Correa

Mondesi

 

 

Acuna- because I think some people may not realize he’s a top 12 player so a bit undervalued. 

 

Curious to hear your expectations for Wendel.  I have him on my watch list and wondering why he stands out for you?

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Jonathan Villar. I believe he will continue his success in Baltimore next season. Nice pop in the bat...tons of stolen bags...top/middle of the order SS. 

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Stream of consciousness. No rhyme or reason to order.

Tyler White
Franmil Reyes
Max Muncy
Ross Stripling
German Marquez
Jose Leclerc
Jack Flaherty
Jameson Taillon
Shane Bieber
Touki Toussaint
Joey Wendle
Brandon Nimmo
Adalberto Mondesi
Joey Lucchesi
Alex Reyes
Tyler Glasnow
Ji-Man Choi
Michael Conforto

Kevin Kiermaier
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Zack Wheeler
Mike Clevinger
Andrew Heaney

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Post hype that will be almost free: Byron Buxton. The ratio of natural talent to price is insane.

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Tommy Pham. A lost year in totality but he's finishing strong and statcast likes him.

Franmil Reyes too he's looked a lot better after his second call-up. Light Tower Power

Conforto He's finishing strong too so chances are the value may be evaporated by the time draft day rolls around but definitely a guy to keep an eye on adp wise. 

Jeff McNeil - this guy can hit. Not much power but can still a few bags and 2B so not bad

Tyler White - could be the full time DH for stros if the let Gattis walk which they probably do 

Luis Urias - he got hurt so it ended his big league debut early could be a really nice value. Not much power or speed but his exceptional bat to ball skills at 2B could definitely make him an asset and a nice one too

Mejia - because fantasy baseball needs another C option. Badly

Yankees Rotation - I think Happ and CC are gone so I'll be curious to see what happens with Loaisiga or Sheffield

Ramon Laureano - not much competition in OAK outfield is not good he has some very good skills

Matt Boyd - sneaky good as a last guy in your rotation type thing. Maybe he turns out to be more of a streamer but he's a guy I'll keep an eye on. 

Glasnow - Maybe I was a year early on him. Still really volatile start to start but could certainly be a value. 

Ryan Zimmerman - if you like cheap, old men. He's coming off a bad year but I'd bite for a dirt cheap price. He has fantastic stat cast numbers. 

Amed Rosario - I keep going back and forth on him but he's kind of growing on me lately - he'll most likely hurt you in obp leagues but the speed is so very nice. 

Pivetta - the home runs dang kind of reminds me of Pineda. But if he's cheap enough I'd be interested. 

E-Rod - he was a wonderful value this year. Nice K's and wins with Boston. 

Cedric Mullins - Speed !

Mallex Smith - More speed ! He looked like a breakout type guy to me this year. 

Willie Calhoun :ph34r: 

Brandon Nimmo - Ugh another Met. Shoot me. But I really like his plate discipline- big bump in obp leagues. Could give you somewhere around 12-15 steals in a full year. 

Aaron Hicks - I wasn't a believer in this guy a couple years ago but he proved me dead wrong this year fantastic plate discipline that should play really well in that lineup. Some speed too maybe 10 or so steals. 

Verdugo- I'm not sure what the Dodgers do this off season but this guy can really hit. Not a ton of power or speed so chances are he may not grab a lot of attention. But he could be a fixture in a really nice Dodgers lineup. 

Sano- people could be really fed up with him. 

Devers- he was a pretty big bust. I wasn't in on him this year so I haven't looked at all at his numbers or anything but maybe post hype type guy? 

LeClerc- Great job closing for Texas in the 2nd half

Gausman - Starts the year in Atlanta. Post post post ... post hype? 

Mondesi - the plate discipline makes my eyes bleed but hey speed kills

Christin Stewart - Nothing fancy power to all fields good plate approach should be the starting LF for Detroit next year 30 HR potential. Should be dirt cheap. 

Corbin Burnes - MIL rotation is so gross. Does he get the chance to crack the rotation next year? 

Ohtani the batsman- Another guy I was dead wrong on this guy looked like a pretty good hitter to me. Could be the full time DH next year after he gets TJ

Nick Senzel - chances are he's not a value by the time draft day rolls around but we can dream, right? 

Kyle Tucker- Oh it's happening. 

German Marquez - I almost always just ignore Rockies pitchers but this guy is kind of hard to ignore at this point

Jake Bauers- He's really struggled but I think it could be some bad luck. I love the plate discipline. Can steal a handful of bags too. 

Austin Meadows - had a nice run with PIT early on. I'm curious to see what he could do in a full season with Tampa. Can't believe I've mentioned 3 Tampa OFs. 

Danny Jansen- another C option we need badly. 

Peter Alonso -This guy can mash. Mets will have a hard time keeping him down. 

Edited by DidiFan
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49 minutes ago, Mdubb23 said:

Stream of consciousness. No rhyme or reason to order.

Tyler White
Franmil Reyes
Max Muncy
Ross Stripling
German Marquez
Jose Leclerc
Jack Flaherty
Jameson Taillon
Shane Bieber
Touki Toussaint
Joey Wendle
Brandon Nimmo
Adalberto Mondesi
Joey Lucchesi
Alex Reyes
Tyler Glasnow
Ji-Man Choi
Michael Conforto

Kevin Kiermaier
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Zack Wheeler
Mike Clevinger
Andrew Heaney

 

Flaherty, Taillon and Wheeler have been top-20 pitchers this year. They don't qualify as sleepers. Similarly, Max Muncy has a chance to lead the NL in home runs this year; he's two back of the leaders. Also not a sleeper.

 

IMO, "real" sleepers list are the guys whose performance has lagged their stuff, or for whom PT or injuries have set them back.  In that category I would put:

 

Touki

Pivetta (#10 in MLB in K/9)

Glasnow (good call)

Alex Reyes (good call)

Soroka

Stripling (good call)

Amed Rosario (terrible first half make his overall stats look meh)

Julio Urias -- forgotten young star?

Archer

Jesse Winker -- watch him if he gets on the launch angle train.

Adam Frazier -- deeper league value. 

Verdugo

Meadows

Edited by Ben Edelman
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And duh, Pete Alonso & Jeff McNeill. Like the Mets have anyone else to possibly play at 1B and 2B?

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7 minutes ago, Ben Edelman said:

 

Flaherty, Taillon and Wheeler have been top-20 pitchers this year. They don't qualify as sleepers. Similarly, Max Muncy has a chance to lead the NL in home runs this year; he's two back of the leaders. Also not a sleeper.

 

IMO, "real" sleepers list are the guys whose performance has lagged their stuff, or for whom PT or injuries have set them back.  In that category I would put:

 

Touki

Pivetta (#10 in MLB in K/9)

Glasnow (good call)

Alex Reyes (good call)

Soroka

Stripling (good call)

Amed Rosario (terrible first half make his overall stats look meh)

Julio Urias -- forgotten young star?

Archer

Jesse Winker -- watch him if he gets on the launch angle train.

Adam Frazier -- deeper league value. 

Verdugo

Meadows


All three are between SP 21-30 in each of my leagues, and I think all three will be a couple rounds undervalued coming into next year.

 

PT has set Muncy back.

 

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3 hours ago, svdude said:

 

Curious to hear your expectations for Wendel.  I have him on my watch list and wondering why he stands out for you?

 

Check out his second half K%

 

I think it's close to 10%. Makings of a great contact hitter with some pop + speed. 

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Know he's been mentioned a couple times already, but Glasnow...new home in TB. I remember watching Blake Snell struggle with similar control issues after coming up in  2017 and look at him this year. See a lot of parallels between him and Glasnow, expect big things next year.

 

 

 

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Wow! Unless I missed something I don't see man of the playersbeong listed as steals . If anything many will be over drafted or over priced . Most aren't flying under the radar 

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14 hours ago, Saucy said:

My league is morphing into a dynasty/auction/salaries type league (basically Ottoneu.com financially speaking, but run on ESPN/Yahoo). I was wondering who people think are going to be bounce-back candidates, or undervalued players going into next season? Like for example I know I'll have as many shares of Alex Bregman, Whit Merrifield, and Max Muncy as I can. Anyone have anybody they're eyeing?

Alex Bregman was already overvalued and blew up even more this year, he will not bring any value whatsoever.   Like with any investment, you are looking to make a profit, meaning you want to draft guys for a price that the following year they would be even more expensive, it means you got good value for them.   

 

Were not talking "steals" here, but having been around auction start up leagues, one thing that I can tell you is one of the trends I typically see is that the first year, there is a reluctance to go to "high" on guys, if your talking auction keeper on a 260 scale, the real stars are $60-70 guys - but the first year you might be able to get them in the high 40's or 50's.  

 

Baseball tends to also devalue guys pretty quick after a bad year, so bounceback guys can provide some nice value.  I think a player I will keep my eye on and see where he ends up is Josh Donaldson given many baseball leagues devalue of players off age and down/injury seasons, he could perhaps fall into being an auction steal. 

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16 hours ago, bluntbros said:

Jonathan Villar. I believe he will continue his success in Baltimore next season. Nice pop in the bat...tons of stolen bags...top/middle of the order SS. 

 

Fingers crossed he gets to 20 appearances so he'll have SS eligibility out of the gate in ESPN. Really like him for next year, too.

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A guy I am really interested in next year: 

 

-Matt Strahm-Masterful for San Diego in relief duty this year. SD played it safe given he was coming off major knee injury. He looks the part. Can be a starter. That's the key. Does he go into the rotation? Also possible he'll be on innings limit again next year even if he starts. His stuff is legit.

 

 

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mallex smith can possibly lead the league in steals next week and will most likely be outside the top 100. his average/obp isnt bad at all to boot. 

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Byron Buxton

 

(You think i'm kidding, but i'm not)

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17 hours ago, Ben Edelman said:

And duh, Pete Alonso & Jeff McNeill. Like the Mets have anyone else to possibly play at 1B and 2B?

 

With Cespedes back they will have to get rid of Bruce 

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I am willing to bet Conforto is drafted on average below where we will end up. He missed spring due to injury and started extremely slow. His BA was awful but has been raking over the last month. I think we will see the 2017 and late 2018 Conforto all of next season and will have a career year.

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Vet that dips into a fountain of youth:

Joey Votto

Josh Donaldson

 

Bounce back guys if they find way into PT:

Byron Buxton

Domingo Santana

Jake Lamb

 

Down year players in prime:

Gary Sanchez

Will Myers

Eric Hosmer (Odd year Hosmer is best Hosmer)

 

Power/launch angle spike guys:

Josh Bell

Normar Mazara

Brian Anderson

 

Struggling youth that could put things together:

Orlando Arica

Manuel Margot

Max Kepler

Scott Kingrey

 

Productive vets that will fall because they are too old and un-sexy

Daniel Murphy

Robinson Cano

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