fabrar

Lou Williams 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Any love for sweet lou this year? He put up some really nice stats last year and looks to be in line to get more buckets as the GOAT 6th man in the league. I kind of reached for him in the 5th round because I really needed some 3s, dimes and scoring from the SG position. Hoping he can put up 20/5/3 again with a smattering of triples. 

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49 minutes ago, fabrar said:

Any love for sweet lou this year? He put up some really nice stats last year and looks to be in line to get more buckets as the GOAT 6th man in the league. I kind of reached for him in the 5th round because I really needed some 3s, dimes and scoring from the SG position. Hoping he can put up 20/5/3 again with a smattering of triples. 

Its hard to think he can recreate last years stats again. The classic father time is catching up to him and he continues to take more and more jumpers every year. With a healthy Danilo and a crowded backcourt i don't think he will get the minutes or touches he did last year. 

However, he did have a career year in points, 3 pointers made and assists so i think he can be the guy you are hoping for! He had his healthiest season in some time playing all but 3 games, i hope he can stay healthy this year again. He will be running the offence off the bench so the assists will be there and because of his ageing body i think he will rely more on his 3 point shot a lot more. I love this bloke and i hope he can back up what people thought to be a fluke year! 

 

Prediction: 19.8 points/ 4.6 assists/ 2.1 rebounds/ 1.0 steals/ 0.1 blocks/ 3.2 threes/ 42 FG%/ 87 FT% in 29 mins a game

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Fine with him in roto at that price, he's a little risky imo in h2h as one would assume he'll get dealt at to a contender near the deadline or have his minutes scaled back a bit. 

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His minutes are way down so far this year, any hope he can get close to his numbers from last year? I know beverly is more of a defender but he's been pretty bad the first 2 games, any chance Lou sees more time at his expense?

 

I grabbed him in the 6th in a points league and he's looking like one of my worst players so far. I love him in real life but Im worried his fantasy stock will take a big decline this year. 

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Might be time to trade him in fantasy while people still remember last seasons numbers? He’s, in fantasy, my worst SG on my roster.

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4 minutes ago, Padilla814 said:

Might be time to trade him in fantasy while people still remember last seasons numbers? He’s, in fantasy, my worst SG on my roster.

 

That's what I was thinking too but didnt want to sound like I'm making a crazy overreaction. With Osman and Levert ballin Lou wont see my lineup for awhile. Might try to package him in a 2 for 1 for a stud

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First time I haven’t owned Sweet Lou in 4 years as I avoided him this year. The usage won’t be close to last year as there just to many mouths to feed on this team. The offense runs through Tobias and Gallo. I think realistic projections would be around 15 points and 3 dimes per. 

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45 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

 

That's what I was thinking too but didnt want to sound like I'm making a crazy overreaction. With Osman and Levert ballin Lou wont see my lineup for awhile. Might try to package him in a 2 for 1 for a stud

 

A 2 for 1 sounds like a good idea.  Except the only players I would package him with would be Gallinari, Osman, or Ariza on my team.. not looking like I want to get rid of either of them.

 

although I know I could get Blake Griffin or Daymond if I sent those two. Liking my squad right now.

 

too many good players available in my league right now.  Dunn, Rondo, Prince, Ball, etc all available.  

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I may have over reached because I got him in the 5th round, so I'm really hesitant to sell low. It's only 2 games so far, I'm gonna give it some time. Lou can always heat up and stay hot for long stretches. 

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5 minutes ago, fabrar said:

I may have over reached because I got him in the 5th round, so I'm really hesitant to sell low. It's only 2 games so far, I'm gonna give it some time. Lou can always heat up and stay hot for long stretches. 

 

5th was a real reach man with no chance for profit there unless injuries hit the Clip hard again which is not impossible. But I have a feeling it’s going to be a lot of 13-19  point games and only playing around 24 min per until/if it happens.  There is just no upside for him right now. If you owned him last year (I did) hopefully you didn’t have blinders on and realized his situation.  But because you took him in the 5th I wouldn’t be selling this early. If Lou actually does go on a mini heater you sell ASAP. 

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No..Lou does this every year...a week of floor games and then the ceiling goes boom... Hold and party, Lou Williams style :wub:

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5 minutes ago, dfstout said:

No..Lou does this every year...a week of floor games and then the ceiling goes boom... Hold and party, Lou Williams style :wub:

Hope you’re right 

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Needs some injuries to really carve out his max role.  As is he’s a garbage a** pick for people like me who got stuck with me letting draft clock go to low then as I hit my pick it went auto and selected a bench man currently getti mediocre run and doing zippo.  I wouldn’t of taken him in top 60 as is.  Instead stuck with him at 47.  Awful.

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On 10/20/2018 at 6:34 AM, chud12 said:

 

5th was a real reach man with no chance for profit there unless injuries hit the Clip hard again which is not impossible. But I have a feeling it’s going to be a lot of 13-19  point games and only playing around 24 min per until/if it happens.  There is just no upside for him right now. If you owned him last year (I did) hopefully you didn’t have blinders on and realized his situation.  But because you took him in the 5th I wouldn’t be selling this early. If Lou actually does go on a mini heater you sell ASAP. 

I’d sell for 7th-8th right now TBH.  This is an ugly situation.  This is going to be a dreadful sight to have to watch on most nights.  Until I move him just get me my 14-3-2 with nothing else and let me mope away. 

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9 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’d sell for 7th-8th right now TBH.  This is an ugly situation.  This is going to be a dreadful sight to have to watch on most nights.  Until I move him just get me my 14-3-2 with nothing else and let me mope away. 

 

One thing I will say as I owned Lou for 3 or 4 straight years before this season is he always gets off to slow starts. If he can get his 21-24 nightly u will get more nights than most at worst 15-20 points. 4th round is insanely high for a points specialist, which is what he is right now. Its going to be tough to get decent value back but Id try trading him based off name value right now because that's all he has. That and the small sample backing your argument. 

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He's streaky as usual. You got him when you know he's gonna hurt your FG%. Bradley, Gallo, bev aren't the durable players. I'd say buy low, don't sell low. 

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There's no reason why he'll be capped at 25 minutes this year.  His breakout last year was predicated on a career high usage rate of 29.8%.  His role on the Clips hasn't changed.  You drafted Lou for a reason (points, 3 pointers, FT%, a few assists)...there's no reason to expect him to fall significantly short in those area this year.

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I had him last year and from what I recall he only really exploded after pat bev went down, before that he was similar to what he's doing now. 

 

He just got dropped in my 10 team league, still considering if I should use my #2 waiver on him, got a soft spot for him as he helped my win a couple leagues last year! 

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Gifted me the championship last year but he only played well because Beverley and Theodosic went down. Now it's a whole lot different situation which is why I didn't target him. On the positive side, beverly and teodosic are quiet injury prone so if you stick around for a while you might get lucky

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4 hours ago, atlantadynasty said:

On the positive side, beverly and teodosic are quiet injury prone so if you stick around for a while you might get lucky

 

Yes - once the inevitable happens of Beverley, Bradley, and Galinari getting their annual 20 plus game injury, it will be sweet Lou time once again!

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11 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’d sell for 7th-8th right now TBH.  This is an ugly situation.  This is going to be a dreadful sight to have to watch on most nights.  Until I move him just get me my 14-3-2 with nothing else and let me mope away. 

You’re going to have a difficult time trading him for a 7th round pick IMO.  I have him in a keeper league, which I know is different but he should still have some value there, and I tried selling high on him during the off-season.  Nope.   No takers whatsoever not even for a 10th round pick.  I accidnekty drafted him for $6 in a redraft league this year. Horrible fit for my team but figured I couldn’t let my opponent getting away with drafting him for $5, thinking I wouldn’t win.   But also thinking I might go up to $10 for him.  Well $6 was the winning bid.  And if he’s going for $6 well that’s an indication of how the league values him.  It’s a situation where you can’t possibly sell low, his value is too low to get fair return,  might as well ride it out . 

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