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Nikola Mirotic 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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1 hour ago, Pendles said:

I’m riding this guy until the wheels fall off.

100% agree with this my man. Riding him until those wheels fall OFF. Which, if you want my opinion, they won't fall off. The FG% will probably drop, but he is getting at least 5 more min on avg than his CHI days. With that said, I think he has a career year in this explosive Pelicans offense. Sit back and enjoy the ride boys.

Edited by JBizFree
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Just now, JBizFree said:

100% agree with this my man. Riding him until those wheels fall OFF. Which if you want my opinion, they won't fall off. The FG% will probably drop, but he is getting at least 5 more min on avg than his CHI days. With that said, I think he has a career year in this explosive Pelicans offense. Sit back and enjoy the ride boys.

Yes sir! He fits next to a Davis like a glove. Hope the hot streaks last a while!

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I'm not selling, I wanna see how he does ROS. Obviously not expecting 30 pts regularly lol but I think he can avg in the high teens with a bunch of 3s and 7-8 boards. Pels play really fast and AD demands a lot of defensive attention which puts mirotic in a perfect position to succeed 

Edited by fabrar
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I have this guy in 6/8 leagues, drafted him at 84 at the earliest, and all I can think of is how the Spurs had the chance to get him (2015-16 I think) and how well he would have fit now with LMA :(

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13 hours ago, fabrar said:

I'm not selling, I wanna see how he does ROS. Obviously not expecting 30 pts regularly lol but I think he can avg in the high teens with a bunch of 3s and 7-8 boards. Pels play really fast and AD demands a lot of defensive attention which puts mirotic in a perfect position to succeed 

I feel exactly the same and am not selling for the same reason.

 

Obviously the FG% and PPG will drop.  I doubt he would even expect to keep shooting at quite this high of a level.  Still, he's in a situation that should allow him to at least continue to be good.  I don't see any point in moving him unless you get overwhelmed.  I don't see somebody giving you first or second round value for him even with the great start.

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After spoiling us so much for the past two games, this line feels like a disappointment LOL but I think these numbers are representative of the norm with around 2+ 3's.

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Yeah no complaints about this line lol. A couple of 3s and it'd have been perfect but I think this is closer to what we will probably see from him going forward

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There’s going to be a lot of variance in his game. I said this when he was an NBA rookie to advocate for holding him and I would say that now except that this the best position he’s been in since coming to the NBA. He’s so fast and his release is so quick that he can basically get his shot off whenever he wants.  That means he can rack up the points and threes quickly but that also means he’s going to rack up 3/10 type lines sometimes and that’s ok.  The main thing is that he’s now empowered to be himself for the first time and he’s worked really well with Brow.  I think he will exceed his ADP by a mile as I stated earlier. 

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Spurs had a chance with this guy back in 2015-16 and again in 2016-17. So sad they passed up on him, would have been a great fit :(

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10 minutes ago, JBizFree said:

If this is his floor, I think we are in for a GREAT ride on the Niko train this year.

Could be. From NBA Stats, field goals with closest defender 4-6 feet away (open shot) -- (season, frequency, %made):

 

2014-15, 31.5%, 36.4%

2015-16, 34.1%, 39.7%

2016-17,  37%, 36.4%

2017-18,  40.8%, 43%

2018-19, 48.7%, 63%

 

He's pretty consistent improving selection and executing the open shot (always had a sweet stroke). He's on a team that looks a lot like the D'Antoni Suns, where Amare and Nash showed how much space (and usage) good shooters can get with a dominant big who can run and a pass-first PG at 100+ ppg (Magic/Kareem? NO is averaging 110 ppg this year).

 

If it's a perfect storm he could actually take 16-18 shots/ gm, with all those posessions padding his rebounds and peripherals.

 

Which puts his ceiling around 22/9/.450/.810/3.0 3pt/1.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk. 

 

That can't be right, can it? Top 10 easy?

Ceiling. Maybe.

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From what I've seen so far, I think we're about to get career numbers from Mirotic ROS. He's in the perfect team and situation to have a monster fantasy season.

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7 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Could be. From NBA Stats, field goals with closest defender 4-6 feet away (open shot) -- (season, frequency, %made):

 

2014-15, 31.5%, 36.4%

2015-16, 34.1%, 39.7%

2016-17,  37%, 36.4%

2017-18,  40.8%, 43%

2018-19, 48.7%, 63%

 

He's pretty consistent improving selection and executing the open shot (always had a sweet stroke). He's on a team that looks a lot like the D'Antoni Suns, where Amare and Nash showed how much space (and usage) good shooters can get with a dominant big who can run and a pass-first PG at 100+ ppg (Magic/Kareem? NO is averaging 110 ppg this year).

 

If it's a perfect storm he could actually take 16-18 shots/ gm, with all those posessions padding his rebounds and peripherals.

 

Which puts his ceiling around 22/9/.450/.810/3.0 3pt/1.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk. 

 

That can't be right, can it? Top 10 easy?

Ceiling. Maybe.

Im not too confident about the stocks, but the rest looks achievable

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3 minutes ago, ellejamil said:

Im not too confident about the stocks, but the rest looks achievable

Surprisingly his career avgs are 1.2 stl & 1.1 blks, with no remarkable peaks or valleys. I did a double take. Last year was 0.7/1.8, and 16-17 was 1.1/1.6.

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9 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Surprisingly his career avgs are 1.2 stl & 1.1 blks, with no remarkable peaks or valleys. I did a double take. Last year was 0.7/1.8, and 16-17 was 1.1/1.6.

Bruh offense is the new defense in the NBA this season ;)

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12 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Surprisingly his career avgs are 1.2 stl & 1.1 blks, with no remarkable peaks or valleys. I did a double take. Last year was 0.7/1.8, and 16-17 was 1.1/1.6.

For real? I thought he was just Ryno on steroids :))

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seems like a staple guy for what was a lower pick for most that will be solid and may win you weeks in 3’s. if i were to sell, id be looking to package with another for a top chip

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Yea zero way I am selling here. It’s easiky going to be s career year for Miro in this high octane offense. I could easily see a 20 plus per with 8 boards and 3 threes per and decent stocks. If you got him in the middle rounds it’s all profit as this point so you hero cashing in. 

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8 hours ago, bdy1 said:

Surprisingly his career avgs are 1.2 stl & 1.1 blks, with no remarkable peaks or valleys. I did a double take. Last year was 0.7/1.8, and 16-17 was 1.1/1.6.

This is not correct.

 

Strange research that I cannot replicate. :huh:

 

Thx for the catch @flippy

Edited by bdy1
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