chimera

John Wall 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Is he being overlooked? This guy was a pretty consistent threat to be picked in the tail end of the first round for last 2-3 seasons.  Now he's in the tail end of the second and guys like 

irving, kemba, ben simmons are being picked over him.   The only thing that's changed is he's starting the season healthy.  In 2016-17 he finished 12th in per game on basketball monster.

 

Did I miss something or did that team USA picture from the summer sour the outlook on him?

 

 

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Yeah for sure overlooked! He is a 18 and 9 with 1.5+ steals and 1.5 threes player guaranteed  when healthy and the only other player to get over 9 assists with 1.5 steals a game last season was Westbrook and LBJ. He has above average blocks for a guard at 1 last year and he continues to score better every (healthy) year. 

 

Only worry i have is his scoring may go down this year cause of Dwight but i doubt you would draft Wall for his scoring. He should lead the league in assists this year and bump up his %'s to make him a top 15 player in fantasy. He should be better than Irving, Kemba and Simmons if he can bounce back this season.

 

Prediction: 18.7 Points/ 10.8 assists/ 4.1 rebounds/ 1.8 steals/ 0.6 blocks/ 1.7 threes/ 45 FG%/ 79 FT% in 33.4 mins a game.

Edited by PaddyAustralia

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1 hour ago, PaddyAustralia said:

Yeah for sure overlooked! He is a 18 and 9 with 1.5+ steals and 1.5 threes player guaranteed  when healthy and the only other player to get over 9 assists with 1.5 steals a game last season was Westbrook and LBJ. He has above average blocks for a guard at 1 last year and he continues to score better every (healthy) year. 

 

Only worry i have is his scoring may go down this year cause of Dwight but i doubt you would draft Wall for his scoring. He should lead the league in assists this year and bump up his %'s to make him a top 15 player in fantasy. He should be better than Irving, Kemba and Simmons if he can bounce back this season.

 

Prediction: 18.7 Points/ 10.8 assists/ 4.1 rebounds/ 1.8 steals/ 0.6 blocks/ 1.7 threes/ 45 FG%/ 79 FT% in 33.4 mins a game.

 

Nice look.

 

He balled off at the end of the 16-17 season, and in the playoffs, but I just can't expect him to be that healthy due to the amount of issues he's had with his knees. Will he hit 74 games? Who knows. Drafting him, and then not thinking about trading him off early is a hard decision to make because of the severity of his knee issues. 16-17 was great, but then last season was a roller coaster.

Edited by ssolitare

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Dwight's a bigger factor then most think. He clogs up an offense. Kemba Walker gets a new revamped post-Dwight offense and looked great last night. I'm scared for Wall with Dwight on the team.

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he's obvious a second round guy.  But you really think the dwight effect really drops him to late 2nd?

 

kemba and wall are different players.   I dont know the usage rates but wall lead team is different because almost everything goes through him. 

 

but again...if someone can enlighten me on the dwight effect that would be great.  

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38 minutes ago, chimera said:

he's obvious a second round guy.  But you really think the dwight effect really drops him to late 2nd?

 

kemba and wall are different players.   I dont know the usage rates but wall lead team is different because almost everything goes through him. 

 

but again...if someone can enlighten me on the dwight effect that would be great.  

 

I agree that there is a big difference between Kemba & Wall. Wall runs his team and I dont see a buyout candidate coming in and really changing Walls usage.

 

 I think Wall will easily average 20 if not more with 10+ assists. If he can somehow manage to average 2stls and 1blk with 45/82% shooting he could be in for a career year.

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6 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

 

I agree that there is a big difference between Kemba & Wall. Wall runs his team and I dont see a buyout candidate coming in and really changing Walls usage.

 

 I think Wall will easily average 20 if not more with 10+ assists. If he can somehow manage to average 2stls and 1blk with 45/82% shooting he could be in for a career year.

I don't know. Dwight has a way of using 5-10 possessions to get his because he is a selfish offensive player (IMO). Wall will get assists, but Beal and Porter are another year developed and are going to eat. Wall's miles are accumulating and he is a player that REALLY depends on athleticism. 

 

The blocks from last year is an outlier to me. The knee issues aren't really an outlier. I always have him queued up in the second round and I just can't pull the trigger. Dude got paid. Wizards are stuck in mediocrity with no hope of being legit title contenders. Nothing really makes me feel good about Wall except knowing that he is an assists machine when he is on the court. I think high teens, double digit assists is the expectation. He should be 1.5-1.9 steals, but it wouldn't surprise me if he went to 1.4ish either. If I am talking Wall in the second I would want to do it with a high assist first round pick just to category crush and move on. 

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8 hours ago, thezing1 said:

I don't know. Dwight has a way of using 5-10 possessions to get his because he is a selfish offensive player (IMO). Wall will get assists, but Beal and Porter are another year developed and are going to eat. Wall's miles are accumulating and he is a player that REALLY depends on athleticism. 

 

The blocks from last year is an outlier to me. The knee issues aren't really an outlier. I always have him queued up in the second round and I just can't pull the trigger. Dude got paid. Wizards are stuck in mediocrity with no hope of being legit title contenders. Nothing really makes me feel good about Wall except knowing that he is an assists machine when he is on the court. I think high teens, double digit assists is the expectation. He should be 1.5-1.9 steals, but it wouldn't surprise me if he went to 1.4ish either. If I am talking Wall in the second I would want to do it with a high assist first round pick just to category crush and move on. 

Blocks shouldnt be an outlier considering he’s averaged atleast 0.8 blks on 4 seperate occasions.

 

 

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This may not be a popular opinion but he is a massive risk to take in the second round.  I know he’s traditionally been taken on the wheel of the first/second but he’s rarely lived up to that in 9 cat.  Historically he’s demanded a punt FG/TO build.  He’s gotten his FG% up recently but he is a turnover machine and should be good for 4 TO per game. Clearly this doesn’t matter for 8 cat, I’m referring to 9 cat specifically. Even if he manages 10 APG, which I have no doubt he can hit, a 2.5 A/TO ratio isn’t elite by any means.  For reference CP3 historically has been a 4:1 A/TO guy and even a boring player such as Collison is also 4:1.  Historically he’s been a poor 3 point shooter and only recently has he added distance shooting to his game.  He’s not a good FT% shooter for a guard.  So basically he hurts you in every efficiency cat.  Granted his defense is excellent and he rebounds well for a guard.  He can be a 20 ppg/10 APG/5 RPG/2 SPG/.8 BPG guy.  Wall is a litmus year for how you draft in fantasy, his counting stats are sexy but his efficiency is so putrid for 9 cat roto.  I’m not saying one approach is better than the other but his efficiency should be taken into consideration.  Finally, his recurring knee injury is very worrisome.  So for me he’s a player with great counting stats, but garbage efficiency, and huge injury concern.  I can’t take him in the second round, I’ll let someone else take that risk. 

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20 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

He can be a 20 ppg/10 APG/5 RPG/2 SPG/.8 BPG guy. 

You said it! This is 1st round value and low efficiency what you mentioned only drops him into 2nd round. Injury can be risk but I don't feel that his stats can be a obstacle to not draft him in 2nd round. I am confident, but instead of Wall I am very doubtful that I draft Kemba in 2nd round. PG without assists - thanks, no! Also AST/TO rating is overvalued here. 10AST/4TO is better than 6AST/2TO in my opinion.

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16 minutes ago, apatas said:

You said it! This is 1st round value and low efficiency what you mentioned only drops him into 2nd round. Injury can be risk but I don't feel that his stats can be a obstacle to not draft him in 2nd round. I am confident, but instead of Wall I am very doubtful that I draft Kemba in 2nd round. PG without assists - thanks, no! Also AST/TO rating is overvalued here. 10AST/4TO is better than 6AST/2TO in my opinion.

I agree 10/4 is much better.  I have no problem punting TO.  If it it was just the inefficiency it would be one thing.  But then add the injury risk and it’s just a lot to overcome.  Looking at it again maybe I would pick him late in the second but I prefer Love, George, Holiday, Stifle, or Drummond.  It’s not so much that I have him on my DND list as it is he goes earlier than where I would pick him.  

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That's the trouble with having Wall. His eff is down but there's no one to really trade him for other than Lillard, who you can't get even 2:1.

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ok im revamping this.... hes looked like total garbage this preseason.  hes even admitted hes not in game shape.  if he plays himself into game shape in the first 2-3 weeks of the season he'll maybe be 15-20 overall.  before preseason I was counting on taking him at the wheel and hoping for a top 10 finish.  I dont see that happening anymore.

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I never liked him.  That said he had a decent year last year, surprising in 3pt percentage.  He's now played 8 years on those creaky knees though.  I would rather let someone else take him in the second round.  

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4 hours ago, chimera said:

ok im revamping this.... hes looked like total garbage this preseason.  hes even admitted hes not in game shape.  if he plays himself into game shape in the first 2-3 weeks of the season he'll maybe be 15-20 overall.  before preseason I was counting on taking him at the wheel and hoping for a top 10 finish.  I dont see that happening anymore.

 

I’m on board this year but was worried when I read his roto world blurb and he said this. I know he has bad knees but he actually finished the year pretty strongly last year so it is very worrisome that he isn’t in game shape to start the year. 

 

I expect the assists and scoring, just hope he can not kill me with his fg% and turnovers. To shoot the 3 better would also be a plus. But I definitely get the feeling he is going to go down injured again. 

 

If he starts the the regular season hot l then I may try to sell early. 

 

One positive is he does have a stellar 4-4-4 playoff schedule.

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I don't understand the concerns on this player
We can talk about injuries and ok
But if he plays he always produces

Tell me a single season when he's not been a fantasy machine
 

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1 hour ago, LosingEffort said:

I don't understand the concerns on this player
We can talk about injuries and ok
But if he plays he always produces

Tell me a single season when he's not been a fantasy machine
 

 

It's not that he doesn't produce. It's how much he produces.

 

His per game ranking the last 4 years:

59

20

22

27

 

He makes much more sense taken after pick 20 than before. And I don't trust his knees (which degenerate with more age), so I wouldn't touch him until round 3.

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3 minutes ago, deadshot said:

 

It's not that he doesn't produce. It's how much he produces.

 

His per game ranking the last 4 years:

59

20

22

27

 

He makes much more sense taken after pick 20 than before. And I don't trust his knees (which degenerate with more age), so I wouldn't touch him until round 3.

 

Note that in 8-cat this is 31/12/12/11... big difference based on league settings

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Might sound harsh, but I wouldn't draft him (at all) for the same reasons I won't draft Westbrook - unless they come at a pretty substantial discount.

 

The names sound nice, but they're not winning fantasy players to build around in the first (Westbrook) and second (Wall) rounds, in my opinion.

 

Not only do they both hurt both of your percentages more than other guards do, but you're instantly punting TOs and you're lower than average in 3PM for that position - and none of that includes injury risk.

 

Only way I'd roll with Wall in the second is if I draft someone like Dame in the first. Punt FG%/TO build and they do enough to offset the other's remaining weak categories (STL and BLK for Dame, 3PM and FT% for Wall).

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11 hours ago, alclayno said:

Might sound harsh, but I wouldn't draft him (at all) for the same reasons I won't draft Westbrook - unless they come at a pretty substantial discount.

 

The names sound nice, but they're not winning fantasy players to build around in the first (Westbrook) and second (Wall) rounds, in my opinion.

 

Not only do they both hurt both of your percentages more than other guards do, but you're instantly punting TOs and you're lower than average in 3PM for that position - and none of that includes injury risk.

 

Only way I'd roll with Wall in the second is if I draft someone like Dame in the first. Punt FG%/TO build and they do enough to offset the other's remaining weak categories (STL and BLK for Dame, 3PM and FT% for Wall).

 

How comfortable are y'all with drafting Wall if you're in a league that has Double Doubles instead of TOs?

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19 minutes ago, hoopnking24 said:

 

How comfortable are y'all with drafting Wall if you're in a league that has Double Doubles instead of TOs?

 

Very

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11 hours ago, alclayno said:

Might sound harsh, but I wouldn't draft him (at all) for the same reasons I won't draft Westbrook - unless they come at a pretty substantial discount.

 

The names sound nice, but they're not winning fantasy players to build around in the first (Westbrook) and second (Wall) rounds, in my opinion.

 

Not only do they both hurt both of your percentages more than other guards do, but you're instantly punting TOs and you're lower than average in 3PM for that position - and none of that includes injury risk.

 

Only way I'd roll with Wall in the second is if I draft someone like Dame in the first. Punt FG%/TO build and they do enough to offset the other's remaining weak categories (STL and BLK for Dame, 3PM and FT% for Wall).

 

I inherited Wall in a 2 player keeper league with nothing else and am finding him very difficult to build around.  I made a deal before last season for Boogie in a punt FG/TO build.  It was going ok until injuries obviously threw a wrench in things.

 

This year with same keepers, I'm building a draft strategy around Wall and holding Boogie really looking to next season.  Again, its difficult.  The problem is that while he is elite in 1 cat (Assists) he really kills you in 3 (TO, FT, FG).  Kill might be too strong for FG but he is very inefficient and if he's not among league leaders in steals, the trade off just for the assist is not really worth it unless you put very specific players around him.

 

Add in that his game is very much reliant on speed, quickness, and athleticism I don't feel good about a guy with chronic knee issues.

 

Gonna do my best to build around him this year but if I could find the right deal I'd move him.  In straight up redraft I would likely look elsewhere at his ADP.  If you have two other studs to build around then yes, he's value in the 3rd.  But its difficult with him as one of your two main cogs, IMO.

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he’s being overlooked because of last season 

 

as some1 who always punts turnovers, he’s a 1st round guy who fell to me in the 2nd 

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