EmbargoLifted

2019 First Rounders Discussion

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Posted (edited)

I published this topic last year around this time where the season is still fresh on everybody's mind. It was a thread with a lot of great discussion/debate so I thought i'd do a follow up this year as well. Here's a link to that thread: 

Without further ado here are my thoughts on 2019 first round players (this will probably change quite a bit over the off-season .. this is my thoughts with the 2019 season still fresh on my brain and without diving too deep into the peripherals): 

 

1. Mike Trout, OF - per plate appearance production still off the charts

2. Mookie Betts, OF - lineup/ballpark boosted roto stats make him #1 pick worthy

3. Jose Ramirez, 3B - 30/30 floor

4. Francisco Lindor, SS - 40/20 player in great lineup and just entering the prime of his career

5. Jose Altuve, 2B - down year but still one of the highest 5 category floors in the league

6. Bryce Harper, OF - still only 25 and still the best hitter in the league outside of mike trout

7. Trea Turner, SS - potential 1 category winner with no other real weakness to his game

8. Manny Machado, SS - high floor .280/30/100/10 with upside

9. Nolan Arenado, 3B - 4 straight seasons 37+ HR 100+ RBI

10. Javier Baez, SS/2B/3B - peripherals are wacky but 5 category gold at multi pos.

11. Christian Yelich, OF - could be higher on this list in 2020 (needs to prove 2018 was no fluke) 

12. JD Martinez, OF - monster season but lack of youth caps his value a bit

 

Here are some fringe 1st/2nd round guys: Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, Paul Goldschmidt 

 

I rarely take starting pitchers in the first round, and i HEAVILY favor youth and 5 category producers over traditional sluggers which is why i have some generous rankings for guys who might be lower on a lot of other peoples lists. 

 

Thoughts?

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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Just looking at it really quickly I think you could flip Manny with Yelich. I think his jump is legit. I would go Baez 11. Manny 10. In that case. 

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@EmbargoLifted thanks for starting the thread.  Can't argue with anything really, could flip flop Lindor and Ramirez.  I see the argument for Harper, but at some point performance has to match the hype.  IMO, in a non-OBP league his stock is down slightly. 

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Posted (edited)

bregman is in the first IMO

 

id prob drop altuve and maybe harper id also put him ahead of baez

 

u are also going to get the "where is max scherzer/chris sale" crowd

Edited by jfazz23
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For those with differing draft philosophies i can see Sale/Nola/Kershaw/Scherzer/Verlander/DeGrom pushing the guys i mentioned towards the latter 1st round well into the 2nd or even early third .. 

 

Also with all of the closer chaos going on after the first 3-5 of them .. i could see someone like Edwin Diaz being surprisingly high next season and i wouldn't particularly blame anybody for reaching for him anywhere after the 1st round really. His stuff is unhittable and the way the Mariners are built create a surprising amount of save situations (lots of average players on the team in a lot of AL west pitcher parks where the game is kept close). 

 

 

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No Trevor Story? He had a better year than Turner and the same years as Baez and Machado, i don't think Turner is a 1st rd pick, not for me anyway I would put a lot more guys ahead of him including Acuna, Freeman, Judge, Bregman, and Goldy

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For me Trevor Story seems like a risky 1st round pick ... he's only 1 year removed from hitting .240 .. i'd like to see a bit more track record 

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If you are taking Baez in the first. It means you are paying for quality BA and SBs. I would not draft expecting the big boon in SBs.

 

Baez had 10 and 12 the previous 2 years. Post all star break this year? Baez has 3 SB to 7 CS.  Cubs are not a big SB team and pretty much all of Baez's SB binge came in a few month window.

 

Do no see how Story is going behind Baez either. They are the exact same. Except Story base stealing efficiency was actually good this year. They are both higher risk and wont be spending a 1st on either IMO. I'll take them in the 2nd as Power first SS and view the SB's more as bonus value.

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22 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

If you are taking Baez in the first. It means you are paying for quality BA and SBs. I would not draft expecting the big boon in SBs.

 

Baez had 10 and 12 the previous 2 years. Post all star break this year? Baez has 3 SB to 7 CS.  Cubs are not a big SB team and pretty much all of Baez's SB binge came in a few month window.

 

Do no see how Story is going behind Baez either. They are the exact same. Except Story base stealing efficiency was actually good this year. They are both higher risk and wont be spending a 1st on either IMO. I'll take them in the 2nd as Power first SS and view the SB's more as bonus value.

 

Great post. It's one of the reasons i created this topic to flesh out the logic / look deeper into the peripherals and to help with modifications in my own projections going forward. 

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35 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

If you are taking Baez in the first. It means you are paying for quality BA and SBs. I would not draft expecting the big boon in SBs.

 

Baez had 10 and 12 the previous 2 years. Post all star break this year? Baez has 3 SB to 7 CS.  Cubs are not a big SB team and pretty much all of Baez's SB binge came in a few month window.

 

Do no see how Story is going behind Baez either. They are the exact same. Except Story base stealing efficiency was actually good this year. They are both higher risk and wont be spending a 1st on either IMO. I'll take them in the 2nd as Power first SS and view the SB's more as bonus value.

this

 

im putting story ahead of baez but i dont think either are in the first round or ahead of bregman

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I’m probably putting Acuna in that fringe group, much happier with him in 2 but I like him over a couple of your fringe guys listed

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1 hour ago, Chubbles said:

I’m probably putting Acuna in that fringe group, much happier with him in 2 but I like him over a couple of your fringe guys listed

love acuna, im always nervous of the sophmore slump tho

 

but ya i think taking acuna right there with story and baez is 100% legit. 

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6 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

1. Mike Trout, OF - per plate appearance production still off the charts

2. Mookie Betts, OF - lineup/ballpark boosted roto stats make him #1 pick worthy

3. Jose Ramirez, 3B - 30/30 floor

4. Francisco Lindor, SS - 40/20 player in great lineup and just entering the prime of his career

5. Jose Altuve, 2B - down year but still one of the highest 5 category floors in the league

6. Bryce Harper, OF - still only 25 and still the best hitter in the league outside of mike trout

7. Trea Turner, SS - potential 1 category winner with no other real weakness to his game

8. Manny Machado, SS - high floor .280/30/100/10 with upside

9. Nolan Arenado, 3B - 4 straight seasons 37+ HR 100+ RBI

10. Javier Baez, SS/2B/3B - peripherals are wacky but 5 category gold at multi pos.

11. Christian Yelich, OF - could be higher on this list in 2020 (needs to prove 2018 was no fluke) 

12. JD Martinez, OF - monster season but lack of youth caps his value a bit

 

Here are some fringe 1st/2nd round guys: Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, Paul Goldschmidt 

 

 

Think I'd go higher on JD and slightly lower on Baez and Turner but otherwise I think you nailed it.

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I hope everyone continues to sleep on Correa.  Bounceback guy that will win many people leagues who can get him in the 2nd/3rd.

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1 hour ago, CAT said:

I hope everyone continues to sleep on Correa.  Bounceback guy that will win many people leagues who can get him in the 2nd/3rd.

I think early mocks have him at about 28 or so.  That seems late to me,but i cant imagine any universe where he goes in the first.  

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Soto could be another steal in the 2nd/3rd round. With 650 PA, he could put up Harper-like stats while also carrying a good BA.

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altuve 5?

 

that seems ridiculous with all the talent your passing on hoping he rebounds in the sb department. hes not going to hit 30 bombs. sure he will have solid avg and counting stats but no chance im taking him at 5. not even close to top 10 for me

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baez had 30% sb success rate 2nd half. no chance im taking him over jdm,  yelich, judge

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I don’t think I can get behind Yelich as a late first rounder without the recency bias,  I’d rather lock up an elite SP and then get an OF in the second round like Benentendi, Springer, Stanton, Blackmon, Judge (all of whom could plausibly end up having a better 2019 than Yelich)

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2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

baez had 30% sb success rate 2nd half. no chance im taking him over jdm,  yelich, judge

 

I get that .. but sb are like any other performance data highly prone to streaks .. 

 

Baez is a good athlete with a ton of power .. i think he is a .275/30/100 hitter who will steal at least 10 bags .. add in the good ballpark and lineup and the multi position eligibility and he becomes a pretty rare asset. I also think he's one of those Kobe Bryant esque tireless workers who is going to be working overtime to refine every part of his game and try to be the best in the world

 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I get that .. but sb are like any other performance data highly prone to streaks .. 

 

Baez is a good athlete with a ton of power .. i think he is a .275/30/100 hitter who will steal at least 10 bags .. add in the good ballpark and lineup and the multi position eligibility and he becomes a pretty rare asset. I also think he's one of those Kobe Bryant esque tireless workers who is going to be working overtime to refine every part of his game and try to be the best in the world

 

yea that's fine in all but that line you mentioned shouldn't go in the 1st rd imo. especially over yelich and bregman who profile as much better/safer in the avg department

 

im more surprised with the altuve rank. he is no where near my 1st rd. maybe im way off here but there is so much talent and production in the league that a player on a down year outside top 55 (even with 137? games) should come at a discount since other young consistent players are going after him

 

edit- I also play h2h so avg isn't super important to me

Edited by colepenhagen
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Posted (edited)

1. Mike Trout, OF

2. Mookie Betts, OF

3. Jose Ramirez, 3B

4. Francisco Lindor, SS

5. Nolan Arenado, 3B

6. Jose Altuve, 2B

7. Manny Machado, SS

8. Bryce Harper, OF

9. Max Scherzer, SP

10. Christian Yelich, OF 

11. JD Martinez, OF

12. Alex Bregman, SS

 

 

Just missed: Baez, Freeman, Kershaw/Sale (even though I personally wouldn't take them here unless Roto)

Edited by Del Rio
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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

 

im more surprised with the altuve rank. 

I'm with you. If Altuve isn't going to steal 30 is he really a top 10 guy? Ehhh maybe but I wouldn't want him at that price. 

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Just now, DidiFan said:

I'm with you. If Altuve isn't going to steal 30 is he really a top 10 guy? Ehhh maybe but I wouldn't want him at that price. 

no i think altuve is a late 2nd early 3rd now

 

havent really looked at it.  i probably wont be owning him

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Altuve will still only be 29. He had a knee injury in 2018 (first time in career on the DL) so it's not like the speed just disappeared. I'll likely be targeting him because he'll be undervalued. As much as he hits, there will always be a lot of chances for SB.

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