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2019 First Rounders Discussion

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10 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Trout

Betts

Jose Ramirez

Lindor

Yelich

Turner

Scherzer

Machado

JDM

Arenado

Bregman

Sale

 

Close

Altuve, Goldy, Kluber, Degrom, Harper, Bryant, Blackmon, Stanton

 

I love Harper, totally don't hate him at all, but at a certain point you just cant really bet on that MVP year every year when he does it once. He could do it next year, but I'm willing to let it go.  Another thing, players who sign huge contracts generally have down years adjusting and living up to it.  If the price is a top 12 pick, I'm out on Harper this year but that's more of a gut thing than anything, he has #1 player upside still. 

 

Story and Baez were amazing this year. I dont like betting 1st round picks with high K low walk guys. I'll take the L on those at that price. 

 

No Blackmon vs Betts debate this year? #Scoreboard

Bryant? yikes 

no judge?

 

Stanton and judge> bregman

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15 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

Bryant? yikes 

no judge?

 

Stanton and judge> bregman

 

Judge played 112 games, wasnt a top 100 player this year. Not in love with Bregman, might be willing to move him down, but not sure over Judge, especially when theres a lot of power hitting OFs available in the next few rounds. 

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Stanton  .266/102/38/100/5

Harper    .249/103/34/100/13

 

Basically the same player to me. If Stanton goes in the first why wouldn't Harper?  Harper had Eaton missing about half the season also.  Stanton also had 60 more ABs over the season. 

 

A lot could change where Harper ends up signing though.

 

As for Bergman not for sure that he makes the top 12 either.

Edited by Low and Away

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1 minute ago, Low and Away said:

Stanton  .266/102/38/100/5

Harper    .249/103/34/100/13

 

Basically the same player to me. If Stanton goes in the first why wouldn't Harper?  Harper had Eaton missing about half the season also.  Stanton also had 60 more ABs over the season. 

 

 

A lot could change where Harper ends up signing though.

yea its the floor for me. I wasn't all about high floor for 1st rd pick but now I kinda like it/get its appeal

 

38/100/100 from Stanton in down year. ill take that in the 1st if you told me that was going to be his line

same thing for Arenado, harper, and same thing for judge.

 

I get the appeal of sb but give me 38/100/100 floor with 50/120/120 upside

 

I still think I would take Arenado 3 over lindor and jo ram call me crazy. not sure yet

 

 

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If you are actually trying to have a balanced team, particularly in roto, I'd have a hard time passing a 5 category guy in the 1st round. Can get power in a lot of rounds, steals guys come with much more warts and risks as you go along and its hard to pin an exact target in a snake draft.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Trout

Betts

Jose Ramirez

Lindor

Yelich

Turner

Scherzer

Machado

JDM

Arenado

Bregman

Sale

 

Close

Altuve, Goldy, Kluber, Degrom, Harper, Bryant, Blackmon, Stanton

 

I love Harper, totally don't hate him at all, but at a certain point you just cant really bet on that MVP year every year when he does it once. He could do it next year, but I'm willing to let it go.  Another thing, players who sign huge contracts generally have down years adjusting and living up to it.  If the price is a top 12 pick, I'm out on Harper this year but that's more of a gut thing than anything, he has #1 player upside still. 

 

Story and Baez were amazing this year. I dont like betting 1st round picks with high K low walk guys. I'll take the L on those at that price. 

 

No Blackmon vs Betts debate this year? #Scoreboard

The "close" guys all have huge question marks except for stanton. Although i agree that all are probably second rounders along with maybe correa.kershaw,judge,acuna,snell and.freeman to round out the first 2 rounds possibilities.  Im guessing story and baez both go before correa in most drafts though. Plenty to choose from at the 2/3 turn to go with trout and betts.

Edited by Cesare13
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Brock, that is exactly why the top 4 is what is it. Talent pool doesn't flow parrell to what round it is.  There is good arguments after those top 4.

 

The problem for steals value happens all rounds. Because 1 steal has so much individual worth and its not precise prediction. Turner doing 45 instead of 60 pushed him off 1st round value when could only hit .270.  Atluve dropped from 30 to 17...and there is always random great hitter years that steal like Freeman with 10.

 

Power/Batting average is not plentiful. So JDM's skill set isn't exactly easy to come by. 2 Straight 40 HR 300 BA in the best offense? He has a pretty good argument after the top 4. If Yelich repeats his power. He's better, but there is more power repeating risk. Turner got 740 PAs. He had max opportunity this year. I'm the fence between JDM/Turner.

 

4 players had 30 HRs .300 BA

7 players had 20 HRs .300 BA

12 players with 30 HRs .280 BA

 

I agree with you on Stanton/Judge since there more traditional power hitters. However they still have top 5 overall upside also.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

The "close" guys all have huge question marks except for stanton. Although i agree that all are probably second rounders along with maybe correa.kershaw,judge,acuna,snell and.freeman to round out the first 2 rounds possibilities.  Im guessing story and baez both go before correa in most drafts though. Plenty to choose from at the 2/3 turn to go with trout and betts.

Yeah I want to draft in the top 3-4 or last next year. Want nothing to do drafting in the middle.

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15 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Judge played 112 games, wasnt a top 100 player this year. Not in love with Bregman, might be willing to move him down, but not sure over Judge, especially when theres a lot of power hitting OFs available in the next few rounds. 

I agree Brock..

 

Bregman hit 51 doubles and 31 bombs with an OPS of .940...plays 3B and SS. 

I think he could be a consistent .280 35-40 HR 100RBI 100R 15SB guy. middle of Astros lineup, but Outside the top 10 I see bregman as a possible steal.  

 

I'm skipping judge anywhere near that early top round(s). Just not enough depth of average, speed,  and some power guys.

 

My strategy recently has been focusing on drafting stud pitching and hitters who are BA, SB, and Runs.  I find i can much more easily trade or find some power guys (KDavis) (Nelson Cruz)  to keep me mid pack in HRs. 

 

 

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15 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

If you are actually trying to have a balanced team, particularly in roto, I'd have a hard time passing a 5 category guy in the 1st round. Can get power in a lot of rounds, steals guys come with much more warts and risks as you go along and its hard to pin an exact target in a snake draft.

roto I agree h2h I don't. avg and sb are devalued for me quite a bit in h2h.

they should really come out with h2h and roto rankings. I guess its implied that high avg or 5 cat players are more valuable but still. 

 

 

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trout
mookie
jo ram
lindor
arenado
jdm
machado depending if signs with NYY. if not then behind yelich and trea
yelich
trea
max
judge
sale
 
Stanton, harper,  bregman, goldy, blackmon, story, altuve, degrom, kluber freeman, nola, acuna, 
 
next 5 -correa, Benintendi, soto, buehler, bauer, snell (preference on the sp)
 
this is tough but you still have cole, severino (should be higher just not for me), verlander, Kershaw who could all go in the top 25 
have no idea where soto will go
don't think there are any major omissions 
Edited by colepenhagen
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4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:
trout
mookie
jo ram
lindor
arenado
jdm
machado depending if signs with NYY. if not then behind yelich and trea
yelich
trea
max
judge
sale
 
Stanton, harper,  bregman, goldy, blackmon, story, altuve, degrom, kluber freeman, nola, acuna, 
 
next 5 -correa, Benintendi, soto, buehler, bauer, snell (preference on the sp)
 
this is tough but you still have cole, severino (should be higher just not for me), verlander, Kershaw who could all go in the top 25 
have no idea where soto will go
don't think there are any major omissions 

Patrick Corbin as well. 

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7 minutes ago, zstlj said:

Patrick Corbin as well. 

and baez. I think hes still outside 2nd rd. id rather have story, benny, and probably  correa:ph34r:

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i think Baez is so versatile tho that he makes the year much easier with rosters. He may get picked too early for my.like but I he is a legit stud.

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FB/LD  Velocity

Stanton 99.7   25.0 HR/FB

Judge 97.7  29.0 HR/FB

Soto 97.4   24.7 HR/FB

Yelich 97.2  35.0 HR/FB

Baez 96.9    24.3 HR/FB

JDM 96.7    29.5 HR/FB

Harper 96.3  23.1 HR/FB

Betts 95.9    16.4 HR/FB

Goldy 95.8    21.6  HR/FB

Trout 95.8     24.5 HR/FB

Acuna 95.3  21.1 HR/FB

Machado 95.1  16.4 HR/FB

Story 95.0     19.9 HR/FB

Arenado 94.4   20.7 HR/FB

Lindor 94.3    17.3 HR/FB

Freeman 93.7   14.9 HR/FB

Bregman 93.4   14.0 HR/FB

Turner 92.5      11.0 HR/FB

JoRamirez 92.4  16.9 HR/FB

Altuve  92.3     9.6  HR/FB  

 

OFB By Volume Full:

(698) Jose Ramirez 201  

(709) Manny Machado 199 

(745) Fransico Lindor 197 

(705) Alex Bregman 194 

(614) Mookie Betts 177 - DL

(656) Trevor Story 167  

(673) Nolan Arenado 162  

(707) Freddie Freeman 151 

(740) Trea Turner 150

(608) Mike Trout 144 -  DL

(649) JD Martinez 142  

(695) Bryce Harper 142  

(690) Paul Goldschmidt 135 

(705) Giancarlo Stanton 132  

(599) Jose Altuve  127  - DL

(645) Javier Baez 124  

(487) Roland Acuna 112 - in-season call up/DL

(651) Christain Yelich 98  -  DL

(498) Aaron Judge 88   - DL 

(494) Juan Soto 82   - Mid-season Call up

 

There is a pretty decent correlation between HR/FB rates and air ball velocity. (You an tweek it for ball park factors) Basically laying out the 2 main components of HR potential. Efficiency and volume.

Edited by Slatykamora
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17 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

 

 

I still think I would take Arenado 3 over lindor and jo ram call me crazy. not sure yet

 

 

ur crazy

Edited by jfazz23
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17 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

If you are actually trying to have a balanced team, particularly in roto, I'd have a hard time passing a 5 category guy in the 1st round. Can get power in a lot of rounds, steals guys come with much more warts and risks as you go along and its hard to pin an exact target in a snake draft.

 

i have judge over everyone of your close picks.  dude was on pace for another great year before getting hit on the hand.

 

anyone know what his pace was before he got hit?  i think he was hitting 285 and on pace for 40+ homers, 100 rbis and like 110-120 runs

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Correa is going to be a polarizing pick.  Nobody who has had him the last 2 years is going to touch him before the 4th or 5th round, but he still has that 2nd round allure to him.  

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5 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i have judge over everyone of your close picks.  dude was on pace for another great year before getting hit on the hand.

 

anyone know what his pace was before he got hit?  i think he was hitting 285 and on pace for 40+ homers, 100 rbis and like 110-120 runs

Somewhere around .285, 39-40 HRs,  105-110 Runs, 90-95 RBIs, 9 SB. Judge had 9 SBs last year.. 

 

.265-275 40HR 110/100 seems like a reasonable projection next year. I prefer Judge over Stanton too as i feel he will score more runs and slightly higher BA. Judge's quality of contact is better. His patience is better, still youthful enough to steal a handful of bags just for fun. He avoid pop ups and the Soft to Hard difference is huge.

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14 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Correa is going to be a polarizing pick.  Nobody who has had him the last 2 years is going to touch him before the 4th or 5th round, but he still has that 2nd round allure to him.  

Corey Seager 2016-2017

1300 PAs, .302 BA, 48 HRs, 190 R, 140 RBI  .195 ISO, .354 BABIP,   .368 wOBA

 

Carlos Correa 2016-2017

1141 PAs, .291 BA  44 HRs, 158 R, 180 RBI,   .201 ISO, .338 BABIP, .368 wOBA  (That would be 50 HRs if you pro-rated 1300 PAs)

 

Without the SBs. He's basically Corey Seager. People are going to remember how hot he was in 2017, where Seager had a down year power wise in 2017. I do wonder how much further down Seager gets drafted. Since people will see those 22 HRs last healthy year and go "bleh"

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8 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Corey Seager 2016-2017

1300 PAs, .302 BA, 48 HRs, 190 R, 140 RBI  .195 ISO, .354 BABIP,   .368 wOBA

 

Carlos Correa 2016-2017

1141 PAs, .291 BA  44 HRs, 158 R, 180 RBI,   .201 ISO, .338 BABIP, .368 wOBA  (That would be 50 HRs if you pro-rated 1300 PAs)

 

Without the SBs. He's basically Corey Seager. People are going to remember how hot he was in 2017, where Seager had a down year power wise in 2017. I do wonder how much further down Seager gets drafted. Since people will see those 22 HRs last healthy year and go "bleh"

Seager's recovery progress will also play a big part, anyone who is gonna miss time is usually devalued quite a bit.  

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seager would be mid/late 3rd at its earliest if hes healthy in ST. I don't see how you could put him in the 2nd rd with all the players in the 2nd rd that just produced top 25 ish lines or have 1st rd pedigree (goldy and altuve)

Edited by colepenhagen

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I know the guys on Sleeper and Bust podcast conducted some early mocks and looking and some of what I think were them from mid Sept 15 team league. 

 

First 4 are exactly what weve been saying. 

 

5. Arenado

6. JDM

7. Machado

8. Scherzer

9. Turner

10. Story

11. Harper

12. Degrom

13. Yelich

14. Bregman

15. Baez. 

 

Turn

 

16. Goldy

17. Acuna

18. Stanton

19. Freeman

20. Altuve

21. Benintendi

22. Judge

23. Nola

24, Sale

25. Marte

26. Blackmon

27. Cole

28. Bryant

29. Verlander

30. Correa

 

Found pretty interesting.  Yelich I thought was low, but this was mid Sept and he was hot down the stretch. 

11 of the 15 picks that are taken in the next round are pitchers, which kind of supports what I think the approach will be for a lot of owners, which is bat bat and "best available arm"

 

 

 

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^  I think that first 15 is pretty solid. You're going to see a lot of power/speed combo guys in the 1st and aces.  I see aces rise higher and higher every year, so I'm curious to see how that goes.  I think the first NFBC draft is some time in November or December.  Those usually set the ADP trend.  

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19 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

^  I think that first 15 is pretty solid. You're going to see a lot of power/speed combo guys in the 1st and aces.  I see aces rise higher and higher every year, so I'm curious to see how that goes.  I think the first NFBC draft is some time in November or December.  Those usually set the ADP trend.  

Usually early November. November 9th last year.

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