2019 First Rounders Discussion

[jfazz23 2,248]

im kinda going back and forth on ARenado vs yelich at 5.  its also why i dont think i can take JDM over bregman or turner when i really think about it

 

i kinda agree with @brockpapersizer that those 20+ sb yelich has make him so valuable in the first...

[Slatykamora 2,533]

36 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

im kinda going back and forth on ARenado vs yelich at 5.  its also why i dont think i can take JDM over bregman or turner when i really think about it

 

i kinda agree with @brockpapersizer that those 20+ sb yelich has make him so valuable in the first...

My problem with Bregman is plays for the Astro's and they don't like players stealing bags unless they are really really good at it. Bregman had 9 SB attempts in the first 2 months. 5 SB attempts in the final 4 months.

 

Correa's SBs dropped as he progressed in the majors, Springer's dropped, and now even Altuve's in dropping. Why would Bregman be any different? They simply don't like to risk giving outs on the bases and put trust in the hitters doing the work. Despite having a team with a lot of raw speed on it.

[jfazz23 2,248]

44 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

My problem with Bregman is plays for the Astro's and they don't like players stealing bags unless they are really really good at it. Bregman had 9 SB attempts in the first 2 months. 5 SB attempts in the final 4 months.

 

Correa's SBs dropped as he progressed in the majors, Springer's dropped, and now even Altuve's in dropping. Why would Bregman be any different? They simply don't like to risk giving outs on the bases and put trust in the hitters doing the work. Despite having a team with a lot of raw speed on it.

bregman just went yard against kluber in the playoffs

 

this guy is the real deal.  i think he can actually INCREASE his numbers on this year...across the board. 

 

i agree on the astros not running, which is why i dont have bregman 5...cuz i think he is as good or better than yelich in the other 4 categories. one thing im thinking tho...correa and springer dont run because they get injured so much.  altuve was ALWAYS allowed to steal. as i said earlier, i dont think its crazy if bregman swipes 17 this year or something

[zstlj 309]

2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

bregman just went yard against kluber in the playoffs

 

this guy is the real deal.  i think he can actually INCREASE his numbers on this year...across the board. 

 

i agree on the astros not running, which is why i dont have bregman 5...cuz i think he is as good or better than yelich in the other 4 categories. one thing im thinking tho...correa and springer dont run because they get injured so much.  altuve was ALWAYS allowed to steal. as i said earlier, i dont think its crazy if bregman swipes 17 this year or something

Exactly right he can very easily take it another level. 51 doubles and 30 Hrs. Ops .945. 

[AnonymousRob 2,725]

ESPN early rankings:

 

Mookie Betts

Mike Trout

Jose Ramirez

Manny Machado

Francisco Lindor

Nolan Arenado

Jose Altuve

Chris Sale

J.D. Martinez

Max Scherzer

Bryce Harper

Trea Turner

 

ESPN has a great many flaws, but there's no denying their size and popularity influence things. It's interesting to see them place Machado in the top 4 and still rank Altuve so highly. 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,661]

15 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

ESPN early rankings:

 

Mookie Betts

Mike Trout

Jose Ramirez

Manny Machado

Francisco Lindor

Nolan Arenado

Jose Altuve

Chris Sale

J.D. Martinez

Max Scherzer

Bryce Harper

Trea Turner

 

ESPN has a great many flaws, but there's no denying their size and popularity influence things. It's interesting to see them place Machado in the top 4 and still rank Altuve so highly. 

Not a fan of Machado at #4, but I like that they have Sale as the SP1. 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,661]

https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/10/early-2019-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-250/

[EmbargoLifted 843]

So far based on ESPN & FantasyPros it looks like im the only one seeing Baez as a first rounder .. curious to see what the projection systems say when those start to come out over the next few months

 

[Cesare13 783]

3 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

So far based on ESPN & FantasyPros it looks like im the only one seeing Baez as a first rounder .. curious to see what the projection systems say when those start to come out over the next few months

 

Baez os an intersting player.  Theres too much risk for me.  A lot of swing and miss in his game.  A possibility of some bad luck in .babip as that likely wont spike. A horrendous walk rate combined with a high k rate.  66% success rate on steals but 18 for 20 pre all star,3 for 10post all star! Thats concerning.  You could realistically be looking at a roto line of .265,29,80,7 type of thing. Although very useable, too risky.  Id probably take him over any pitcher myself,but thats preference.

[Cesare13 783]

6 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

ESPN early rankings:

 

Mookie Betts

Mike Trout

Jose Ramirez

Manny Machado

Francisco Lindor

Nolan Arenado

Jose Altuve

Chris Sale

J.D. Martinez

Max Scherzer

Bryce Harper

Trea Turner

 

ESPN has a great many flaws, but there's no denying their size and popularity influence things. It's interesting to see them place Machado in the top 4 and still rank Altuve so highly. 

Seems like every year theres someone thats put up to challenge trout.  This year is betts,last year was altuve,a few years ago was harper.  Peoples' obsession with getting the #1 ranked player makes them miss out on the guranteed numbers. 

[Slatykamora 2,533]

1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

Seems like every year theres someone thats put up to challenge trout.  This year is betts,last year was altuve,a few years ago was harper.  Peoples' obsession with getting the #1 ranked player makes them miss out on the guranteed numbers. 

Last 3 years

Trout  101 HRs, 316 Runs, 251 RBI, 76 SBs  .312 BA   413 Games

Betts 87 HRs,  352 Runs, 295 RBI,  82 SBs, .308 BA  447 Games

 

Player Rater

Betts 15.02- 8.76

Trout  12.01- 9.33

 

2017 had an Injury cut Trout's season short and Betts hit .260. You don't really expect either of these going forward.  Trouts Power has been better while Mookie plays in a far better lineup for R/RBI.  This is not a one year wonder thing.  Betts floor doesn't fail to get less than 24/24 100 Runs

[parrothead 2,116]

On 10/5/2018 at 1:16 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

^  I think that first 15 is pretty solid. You're going to see a lot of power/speed combo guys in the 1st and aces.  I see aces rise higher and higher every year, so I'm curious to see how that goes.  I think the first NFBC draft is some time in November or December.  Those usually set the ADP trend.  

I think last year there were a set 4 Aces everyone agreed upon: Sale, Kluber, Kershaw, Scherzer - and many owners in a race to get 1 of those 4 really bumped up their ADP, heck there were probably some leagues where 3-4 went in the first round.  I have a feeling people this year will be fine with the next 4-5 guys as their ace, so I think that could result in maybe 1 being a top 12 ADP.  My guess is Scherzer ends up like 11-14 ADP.  

[Cesare13 783]

1 hour ago, parrothead said:

I think last year there were a set 4 Aces everyone agreed upon: Sale, Kluber, Kershaw, Scherzer - and many owners in a race to get 1 of those 4 really bumped up their ADP, heck there were probably some leagues where 3-4 went in the first round.  I have a feeling people this year will be fine with the next 4-5 guys as their ace, so I think that could result in maybe 1 being a top 12 ADP.  My guess is Scherzer ends up like 11-14 ADP.  

The drop off from 4 to 5 last year was pretty considérable and the drop happened in the same round. I dont speculate thatll happen this year. Id be just as happy with snell,syndergaard 15 picks later and ecstatic with the Strasbourg types 30 picks later.

 

** not sure of these exact rankings as i Admittingly havent started my rankings and am just ballparking things.

[Cesare13 783]

1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Last 3 years

Trout  101 HRs, 316 Runs, 251 RBI, 76 SBs  .312 BA   413 Games

Betts 87 HRs,  352 Runs, 295 RBI,  82 SBs, .308 BA  447 Games

 

Player Rater

Betts 15.02- 8.76

Trout  12.01- 9.33

 

2017 had an Injury cut Trout's season short and Betts hit .260. You don't really expect either of these going forward.  Trouts Power has been better while Mookie plays in a far better lineup for R/RBI.  This is not a one year wonder thing.  Betts floor doesn't fail to get less than 24/24 100 Runs

Great points. Im very interested because i have #1 overall.  The thing about trouts floor is that he doesnt seem to have one.  Hes floating.

[KingJoffrey 598]

I love, love Chris Sale and he helped me a lot this year..but..

 

I just don't see how you can take him over Scherzer.  Sale has some real injury and innings  cap concerns and plays in a tougher division.

[DidiFan 1,150]

11 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

ESPN early rankings:

 

Mookie Betts

Mike Trout

Jose Ramirez

Manny Machado

Francisco Lindor

Nolan Arenado

Jose Altuve

Chris Sale

J.D. Martinez

Max Scherzer

Bryce Harper

Trea Turner

 

ESPN has a great many flaws, but there's no denying their size and popularity influence things. It's interesting to see them place Machado in the top 4 and still rank Altuve so highly. 

No Yelich. Am I missing something? 

[KingJoffrey 598]

On 10/5/2018 at 7:56 PM, Slatykamora said:

My problem with Bregman is plays for the Astro's and they don't like players stealing bags unless they are really really good at it. Bregman had 9 SB attempts in the first 2 months. 5 SB attempts in the final 4 months.

 

Correa's SBs dropped as he progressed in the majors, Springer's dropped, and now even Altuve's in dropping. Why would Bregman be any different? They simply don't like to risk giving outs on the bases and put trust in the hitters doing the work. Despite having a team with a lot of raw speed on it.

 

Just isn't true that the Astros refuse to steal bases.  Last year, Houston was 4th in the AL in SBs.  This year it fell down to 10th.  But don't forget some of their best basestealing threats like Springer and Altuve spent time on the DL.  Maybe the time leading up to and the time shortly after a DL stint is a bit of a black hole for steal attempts.

 

A lot of this idea that the Astros won't steal also had to do with the notion that the offense was so good that steals were an unnecessary risk.  Correa should step it up.  But my guess is that one or more of Springer Altuve and Correa will revist the DL list at some point in 2019.  Astros may not have a choice but to try out a bit more running game,

[jfazz23 2,248]

7 hours ago, DidiFan said:

No Yelich. Am I missing something? 

na. espn sucks

[Slatykamora 2,533]

3 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Just isn't true that the Astros refuse to steal bases.  Last year, Houston was 4th in the AL in SBs.  This year it fell down to 10th.  But don't forget some of their best basestealing threats like Springer and Altuve spent time on the DL.  Maybe the time leading up to and the time shortly after a DL stint is a bit of a black hole for steal attempts.

 

A lot of this idea that the Astros won't steal also had to do with the notion that the offense was so good that steals were an unnecessary risk.  Correa should step it up.  But my guess is that one or more of Springer Altuve and Correa will revist the DL list at some point in 2019.  Astros may not have a choice but to try out a bit more running game,

I did say: "unless they are really really good"  The Orioles run with Villar, and the Astros will run with a heathly Altuve.

 

Orioles had 60 non Villar SBs this year. Astros had 54 non Atluve SBs this year, 66 last year. Even the worst teams with mostly slower players still do north of 30 steals in a year.

 

Springer hasnt cracked double digit SBs in 3 years. Correa didnt get hurt until after the all star break last year.

 

2015: 121

2016: 102

2017: 98

2018: 71(86 if altuve repeated 2017)

 

Its still been downward trend.

 

Bregman has 18 career steals as a 1-3 hitter in 1013 PAs. 

Edited October 8, 2018 by Slatykamora

[taobball 7,483]

No chance I take Javier Baez in the first round. I love him as a player and a Cubs fan, but I'm not taking that K:BB in teh first. Call it whatever you will. 

[jfazz23 2,248]

5 minutes ago, taobball said:

No chance I take Javier Baez in the first round. I love him as a player and a Cubs fan, but I'm not taking that K:BB in teh first. Call it whatever you will. 

care to discuss a few more players?

 

in particular Yelich, Bregman, Story, Machado?

 

 

[taobball 7,483]

1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

care to discuss a few more players?

 

in particular Yelich, Bregman, Story, Machado?

 

 

 

Maybe in a week or two. I've started going over the season so I'd just prefer to not go too deep if my opinions may change in the next 10 days. 

[KingJoffrey 598]

2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

I did say: "unless they are really really good"  The Orioles run with Villar, and the Astros will run with a heathly Altuve.

 

Orioles had 60 non Villar SBs this year. Astros had 54 non Atluve SBs this year, 66 last year. Even the worst teams with mostly slower players still do north of 30 steals in a year.

 

Springer hasnt cracked double digit SBs in 3 years. Correa didnt get hurt until after the all star break last year.

 

2015: 121

2016: 102

2017: 98

2018: 71(86 if altuve repeated 2017)

 

Its still been downward trend.

 

Bregman has 18 career steals as a 1-3 hitter in 1013 PAs. 

 

But if the Astros have no intention of deploying the running game, why bring up Tony Kemp and play him nearly every day?  Isn't this a speed/defense play by the Astros?

 

I think Bregman's lack of steals also has a lot to do with his huge increase in extra base hits.  

 

Team also lead the majors in run differential, probabaly won't run if ahead by more than 3 runs.

 

In short, there are lots of reasons that can explain a SB drop off. Until Hinch says the team will stop running, then I wouldn't jump to a conclusion over 1 off year. 

[KilloWertz 2,459]

5 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

But if the Astros have no intention of deploying the running game, why bring up Tony Kemp and play him nearly every day?  Isn't this a speed/defense play by the Astros?

 

I think Bregman's lack of steals also has a lot to do with his huge increase in extra base hits.  

 

Team also lead the majors in run differential, probabaly won't run if ahead by more than 3 runs.

 

In short, there are lots of reasons that can explain a SB drop off. Until Hinch says the team will stop running, then I wouldn't jump to a conclusion over 1 off year. 

That logic would be sound if Tony Kemp actually ran.  You should have been right, but for whatever reason, he barely ran in the second half.  Granted his hitting tanked in the second half, but he still only ran twice in more ABs.

 

Bregman ran enough in the first half that he should have been able to approach his SB total from the previous season.  He hit more doubles in the second half, but his slugging was down a hair, so he actually hit less extra base hits overall in the second half.  He only ran twice.

 

It's not a coincidence.  For whatever reason, the Astros barely ran at all in the second half.  Does this mean that Bregman won't steal more than a handful of bases next season?  No, but it would be a surprise to see Bregman ever top 20 SBs and it is true that the Astros are running less.  Granted most of the league is, but still, the Astros are trending downward in that area and a rebound in that area would be a huge surprise.

Edited October 8, 2018 by KilloWertz

[parrothead 2,116]

12 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

But if the Astros have no intention of deploying the running game, why bring up Tony Kemp and play him nearly every day?  Isn't this a speed/defense play by the Astros?

 

I think Bregman's lack of steals also has a lot to do with his huge increase in extra base hits.  

 

Team also lead the majors in run differential, probabaly won't run if ahead by more than 3 runs.

 

In short, there are lots of reasons that can explain a SB drop off. Until Hinch says the team will stop running, then I wouldn't jump to a conclusion over 1 off year. 

Part of it has to do with spot in order as well...he hit 3rd more this year - in his career he has 0 stolen base attempts when hitting 3rd or 4th in the lineup.