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2019 First Rounders Discussion

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Bregman has similar BA, SB and RBI projections to Machado. Bregman batted all over the LU in 2017, where in 2018 he has become a dedicated top/heart of the order hitter.

 

Machado has a bit higher HR projection(better HR/FB), while bregman has a bit higher R projection(Higher OBP)

 

To me, Machado goes before Bregman mostly due to track record...but Bregman shouldnt fall really any further than him as i see them with similar fantasy profiles.

 

Machados landing spot will dictate what little gap between them. If any if it ends less than ideal for fantasy.

 

Fair assessment, or no?

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Bregman has similar BA, SB and RBI projections to Machado. Bregman batted all over the LU in 2017, where in 2018 he has become a dedicated top/heart of the order hitter.

 

Machado has a bit higher HR projection(better HR/FB), while bregman has a bit higher R projection(Higher OBP)

 

To me, Machado goes before Bregman mostly due to track record...but Bregman shouldnt fall really any further than him as i see them with similar fantasy profiles.

 

Machados landing spot will dictate what little gap between them. If any if it ends less than ideal for fantasy.

 

Fair assessment, or no?

 

i actually think bregman is slightly better (although i wouldnt fault anyone for taking machado before)

 

this was machado's first year with an OPS over 900 (906). it was 825 with LA btw.  last year he was 782 and the years before 870 and 860...i wont include his first few years where he was a 750 OPS guy

 

Bregman OPS 926 this year after 827 last year...which u would compare to machado hitting mid 700s in his first few years (i know he was a year or 2 younger)

 

even if machado signs with philly, a good hitters park, bregman is gonna be on the better team/offense.  in fact...unless machado signs with yanks or redsox bregman is gonna be in the better lineup and will probably have better run/rbi numbers

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OPS is pure OBP/SLUG.   HRs are more important in fantasy then how OPS weighs.  If Bregman equals Manny in HRs next year, then yes. He will likely end up a better 5X5 year due to more R/RBI. We wont be able to put a full picture on RBI/R and HR potetioanl until Manny finds a home. So we can put this on the back burner.

 

In OBP 5X5. I'd agree with your take of Bregman>Manny.

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15 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

OPS is pure OBP/SLUG.   HRs are more important in fantasy then how OPS weighs.  If Bregman equals Manny in HRs next year, then yes. He will likely end up a better 5X5 year due to more R/RBI. We wont be able to put a full picture on RBI/R and HR potetioanl until Manny finds a home. So we can put this on the back burner.

 

In OBP 5X5. I'd agree with your take of Bregman>Manny.

 

well ya....but itsa great stat to estimate runs and rbis...  i think bregman and manny HR power is a wash.  wouldnt think its crazy if bregman hits 38 next year

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Looks like it took a few pages but we got to our Betts vs Blackmon debate this year and its Machado vs Bregman. I guess a lot is going to depend on how we view Bregman's power and bb% gains from this year, if they are legitimate, I'd probably want him over Machado. Of course Machado signing with a great destination or worse destination could make the decision easier. It's somewhat close though. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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whats machado last 4 year avg? something like 35 hrs 95 rbis 90 runs 11 sb 290 avg  (had one down year 260 avg)

turned 26 in july, add in the health and consistenty of machados 4 year avg and that  is what you hope bregman provides when your taking him in the 1st rd

Edited by colepenhagen

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

whats machado last 4 year avg? something like 35 hrs 95 rbis 90 runs 11 sb 290 avg  (had one down year 260 avg)

turned 26 in july, add in the health and consistenty of machados 4 year avg and that  is what you hope bregman provides when your taking him in the 1st rd

 

i personally think bregman can beat those numbers especially if the astros stay moderately healthy next year. i mean he matched the avg, was just under the homeruns and beat those run and rbi numbers with correa, altuve and even springer missing significant time

 

but again, i cant fault someone for taking machado a pick ahead of bregman...i just think bregman is slightly better

 

edit:  bregman also beats machado in K% and BB% (which is why his OBP was near 400 this year and machado is a career 335 OBP guy)

 

  bregman also has a better linedrive % and lower groundball %

 

i also think bregmans BABIP was about 20-30...maybe 40  points too low and machado was right where is will be

Edited by jfazz23

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3b might be the deepest position outside of shallow 3 OF leagues, and SS is deeper than it's been since I've played fantasy baseball.  Bregman and Machado are both studs, but I can see a pretty good reason to skip both.

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54 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

3b might be the deepest position outside of shallow 3 OF leagues, and SS is deeper than it's been since I've played fantasy baseball.  Bregman and Machado are both studs, but I can see a pretty good reason to skip both.

 

agree to some extent.  but you gonna really skip them and take freddie freeman or goldie because 1b is more shallow than usual?

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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

agree to some extent.  but you gonna really skip them and take freddie freeman or goldie because 1b is more shallow than usual?

 

Depending on league depth I'd certainly consider Sale/Scherzer. Decent argument for Goldy still and Freddie Freeman finished higher on the player rater than Bregman, and Freeman may have been playing hurt in the 2nd half, so I don't think it's insane at this moment.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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10 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Depending on league depth I'd certainly consider Sale/Scherzer. Decent argument for Goldy still and Freddie Freeman finished higher on the player rater than Bregman, and Freeman may have been playing hurt in the 2nd half, so I don't think it's insane at this moment.

 

i just get so damn nervous taking an SP early like that.  i dont think its insane i just dont love doing it.  im also not in love with the player rater and i plan on owning luke voit in every league next year. (last line was a joke)

 

but i think where you are going to be taking bregman/machado...late first. lets say 9th pick.  i think ull be able to get Goldie or FF with the 2nd round pick.  not so sure the other way around.

 

really looking forward to Taobball's input. he said 10 days or so :)

 

edit: also looking forward to mock draft.  im hoping we can get one started before the holidays....maybe right after the playoffs or even during the WS.  a slow board draft if we can get 12 people?

Edited by jfazz23

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18 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i just get so damn nervous taking an SP early like that.  i dont think its insane i just dont love doing it.  im also not in love with the player rater and i plan on owning luke voit in every league next year. (last line was a joke)

 

 

 

Pitcher risk is real, but not only did Sale and Scherzer have more impactful fantasy years than Bregman and Machado, but the difference between those pitchers and like Paxton/Berrios is twice the difference between those 2 3B and Jonathan Villar/Carpenter (who had very good years)

 

If an Ace has that Ace type year like the ones the top guy has, it generally has more value than most of the hitters besides the ones that have just the insane 5 category years. 

 

I'm not saying there is a right or wrong way, and league dependency is a huge role, but even in slightly deeper leagues its not too hard to find a playable 3b/ss late or off the wire that will help your team chug a long. With pitcher, you generally need a couple guys to hit in deeper leagues, and it's pretty hard to find an absolute anchor late in drafts or off the wire.  What a  near 2.5 ERA guy with a sub 1 WHIP, and 220k+ guy will do for you over the course of 200 IP is going to be worth more than what a good non elite BA middle of the order power hitter will do for you.  A .9 WHIP for 200 IP has to be like 50 HR equivalent, maybe more, I'm pulling this last part out of my butt. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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18 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Pitcher risk is real, but not only did Sale and Scherzer have more impactful fantasy years than Bregman and Machado, but the difference between those pitchers and like Paxton/Berrios is twice the difference between those 2 3B and Jonathan Villar/Carpenter (who had very good years)

 

If an Ace has that Ace type year like the ones the top guy has, it generally has more value than most of the hitters besides the ones that have just the insane 5 category years. 

 

I'm not saying there is a right or wrong way, and league dependency is a huge role, but even in slightly deeper leagues its not too hard to find a playable 3b/ss late or off the wire that will help your team chug a long. With pitcher, you generally need a couple guys to hit in deeper leagues, and it's pretty hard to find an absolute anchor late in drafts or off the wire.  What a  near 2.5 ERA guy with a sub 1 WHIP, and 220k+ guy will do for you over the course of 200 IP is going to be worth more than what a good non elite BA middle of the order power hitter will do for you.  A .9 WHIP for 200 IP has to be like 50 HR equivalent, maybe more, I'm pulling this last part out of my butt. 

 

interesting. im always just nervous that scherzer has a 2018 kershaw year. or sale has a big injury.  i think those are far more likely than bregman or machado needing a surgery.

 

and although the guys u mentioned (villar and carp) had good years, i think its much easier to find Bauer, snell, nola, cole, mikolas, corbin, morton, clevinger etc  paxton and berrios werent the hidden gems this year.  i mean you could have waited until the 4th round this year and realistically got something like DEgrom, Nola, Snell, Bauer, Corbin

 

im sure u could do that with hitters too but i find the top hitters vary less....

 

like next year id much rather have a first 3 rounds of something like Machado, FF, blackmon (off the top of my head) and then roll the dice with a 4th round pitcher and then young guys with breakout potential.  buehler, flaherty, tallion,folty,clevinger,berrios,stripling etc

Edited by jfazz23

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The hitters taken at the end of R1, or R2/R3 tend to have much higher performance risk than the Pitchers taken in the first 3 rounds.

 

Pitchers just carry a higher injury risk. I think the scale between injury and performance risk depends on depth. I'd argue an elbow snapping is easier to manage then your early pick under performing in standard leagues. Because its easy to move on and use his roster slot on speculative adds. Where you kinda have to keep giving that stud a chance and can't drop him even when he's doing worse than what the WW has.

 

2018 Correa, Bryant and Votto might look better than a pitcher who blew his elbow in April because they still "put up numbers". If those numbers didn't really surpass what was on the WW. Its really no different and you held on to them much longer.

 

ADP already accounts for injury risk. There was only 2 pitching busts inside the top 40 ADP. Strasburg, who already had a shaky health record. 3.74 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 156Ks 10Wins..then of course Kershaw. Who still put up solid ratio's when he played.

 

Yet there was a lot of pitching busts once you get straight outside the top 40 (Darvish, Bumgardner, Carlos Martinez, Chris Archer, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel)

 

Edit: 2018

Edited by Slatykamora

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3 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

The hitters taken at the end of R1, or R2/R3 tend to have much higher performance risk than the Pitchers taken in the first 3 rounds.

 

Pitchers just carry a higher injury risk. I think the scale between injury and performance risk depends on depth. I'd argue an elbow snapping is easier to manage then your early pick under performing in standard leagues. Because its easy to move on and use his roster slot on speculative adds. Where you kinda have to keep giving that stud a chance and can't drop him even when he's doing worse than what the WW has.

 

2017 Correa, Bryant and Votto might look better than a pitcher who blew his elbow in April because they still "put up numbers" but if those numbers didn't really surpass what was on the WW. Its really no different and you held on to them much longer.

 

ADP already accounts for injury risk. There was only 2 pitching buss inside the top 40 ADP. Strasburg, who already had a shaky health record. 3.74 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 156Ks 10Wins..then of course Kershaw. Who still put up solid ratio's when he played.

 

Yet there was a lot of pitching busts once you get straight outside the top 40 (Darvish, Bumgardner, Carlos Martinez, Chris Archer, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel)

 

ya but we are both cherry picking.

 

what if u didnt take bryant, votto and instead took machado, FF, Bregman this year?  or instead of machado, FF, Breg you took kershaw, position player, thor...

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24 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

ya but we are both cherry picking.

 

what if u didnt take bryant, votto and instead took machado, FF, Bregman this year?  or instead of machado, FF, Breg you took kershaw, position player, thor...

 TDRL: Pitchers are higher injury risk early, but lower performance risk. Hitters are higher performance risk, but lower injury risk. how deep your WW is depends on much injury to permanence risk matters.

 

There was only 10  Starting Pitchers in the top 40. You start taking the top 2 pitchers around the 8th-10th best hitter. You are taking the 5-6th best pitcher at the same ADP you take the 15th-20th best hitter likely.  True aces are arguably the most scarce thing in today's FBB. Once you get past the legit 5 cat studs, the argument is there.

 

What you would rather have is subjective. Kershaw, Thor and Staus all put up decent ratios and K's when they played. They just didn't play enough to return their draft capital. To me, I think that's better than a hitter who doesn't perform any better than what is on the WW all year.  Just my opinion.

 

In deeper leagues, i'd prefer the opposite. I value health more the slimmer the WW is.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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I have Altuve. I would disagree with him being so high. He should be better next year than this year, but I don't think you can count on 2017 Altuve returning.

 

I think baseline you have to assume 20 steals and not 30 steals. Maybe 15 homers.

 

So like .315 15 25. Is that better than Trea? I think I'd rather have the younger guy.

 

Yelich 35% HR/FB rate. Next year he's gotta slide back under 30 homers right?

Edited by papasmurf
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@jfazz23 totally agree with you on the pitchers risk. That being said guys like Nola and Degrom who you mentioned went pretty high in drafts, I dont think its fair to compare them to Carpenter and someone like Villar, the latter of which was free and the former a bargain or free if someone dropped. Corbin had a fantastic year, but actually Scherzer was more than just a little bit better than him.  Someone like Joey Wendle had actually a very similar player rater value to a Jack Flaherety, who broke out big time. Even if you avoid pitching in the first few rounds and manage to grab a Snell like pick (snell was the only real guy was uber elite pitcher and and a later pick), you still need multiple pitchers to hit, not just one like you do a 3b/ss IMO. 

 

Again, my disclaimer is league dependent. If you play in a league where you can stream rather easily, pitching becomes less important, but on a player value aspect, someone like Sale and Scherzer have #1 player upside and have been in the top 5.  Guys like Bregman and Machado are guys who we are willing to draft in round 1 after a  great 2018, yet neither player actually finished in the top 20 of value in traditional categories. Safer floor, less upside. There sure is something to be said about losing your draft in round 1, but there's also something to be said about wanting to win and take a risk. 

 

For the record, I have not decided what I would do, again it's VERY league dependent. 

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21 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

I have Altuve. I would disagree with him being so high. He should be better next year than this year, but I don't think you can count on 2017 Altuve returning.

 

I think baseline you have to assume 20 steals and not 30 steals. Maybe 15 homers.

 

So like .315 15 25. Is that better than Trea? I think I'd rather have the younger guy.

 

Yelich 35% HR/FB rate. Next year he's gotta slide back under 30 homers right?

 

agree on altuve i think hes a 2nd (maybe 3rd) rounder now... and i actually think i like whit merrfield for next year better.

 

i think yelich is legit.  he might not hit 36 but he can easily be a 28-32 home run guy in milwaukee.  i really am thinking hes the 5th overall best player next year at this point.  hes basically mookie betts lite and betts might go 1 overall (although i think ill be taking trout)

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7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

@jfazz23 totally agree with you on the pitchers risk. That being said guys like Nola and Degrom who you mentioned went pretty high in drafts, I dont think its fair to compare them to Carpenter and someone like Villar, the latter of which was free and the former a bargain or free if someone dropped. Corbin had a fantastic year, but actually Scherzer was more than just a little bit better than him.  Someone like Joey Wendle had actually a very similar player rater value to a Jack Flaherety, who broke out big time. Even if you avoid pitching in the first few rounds and manage to grab a Snell like pick (snell was the only real guy was uber elite pitcher and and a later pick), you still need multiple pitchers to hit, not just one like you do a 3b/ss IMO. 

 

Again, my disclaimer is league dependent. If you play in a league where you can stream rather easily, pitching becomes less important, but on a player value aspect, someone like Sale and Scherzer have #1 player upside and have been in the top 5.  Guys like Bregman and Machado are guys who we are willing to draft in round 1 after a  great 2018, yet neither player actually finished in the top 20 of value in traditional categories. Safer floor, less upside. There sure is something to be said about losing your draft in round 1, but there's also something to be said about wanting to win and take a risk. 

 

For the record, I have not decided what I would do, again it's VERY league dependent. 

 

they do have #1 upside but they also can finish 57th in 5x5 like kershaw AND their injury risk is clearly higher than a position player. im not opposed to taking pitchers in the 4th...i mean, verlander and degrom were 4th (or 5th???) rounders this year and they were how close to max scherzer?  and nola was a 6th-8th round and he was 1 behind sale in 5x5 

 

again u can do the same with position players, so i dont think either strat is objectively better.

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

 

they do have #1 upside but they also can finish 57th in 5x5 like kershaw AND their injury risk is clearly higher than a position player. im not opposed to taking pitchers in the 4th...i mean, verlander and degrom were 4th (or 5th???) rounders this year and they were how close to max scherzer?  and nola was a 6th-8th round and he was 1 behind sale in 5x5 

 

again u can do the same with position players, so i dont think either strat is objectively better.

 

Yeah well if you pick the right pitcher in round 4 like Verlander or Degrom this year, it certainly works out. That's ideal  You take Thor or Darvish and it doesnt. Bregman and Rendon went 4th or later too. Rendon is specifically someone who could put up the same or better numbers than these two 3b we're talking about.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Yeah well if you pick the right pitcher in round 4 like Verlander or Degrom this year, it certainly works out. That's ideal  You take Thor or Darvish and it doesnt. Bregman and Rendon went 4th or later too. Rendon is specifically someone who could put up the same or better numbers than these two 3b we're talking about.

 

 

yea im not disagreeing.  its really about preference, league etc.  im just more confident i get this years blake snell or aaron nola than i am getting javier baez

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I like made a whole google docs on 2018 adp vs return on investment.

 

I wasnt cherry picking when i say picking pitching was a crapshoot after the top 40.

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22 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

yea im not disagreeing.  its really about preference, league etc.  im just more confident i get this years blake snell or aaron nola than i am getting javier baez

 

At least half of the pitching gems from last year were vets. I wouldnt tunnel vision on the young guys for pitchers. Hitter breakouts seemed more youth/just getting to prime centric.

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55 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

yea im not disagreeing.  its really about preference, league etc.  im just more confident i get this years blake snell or aaron nola than i am getting javier baez

 

If you could tell me who this year''s snell is, that would be great :wub:  Nola was about the 18th or so starting pitcher off the board, I feel like there was enough buzz amongst smarter owners that he went earlier often. Feel like he went around pick 60. That was still a very profitable pick, but he had to fall to you properly in snake, and you still had to spend an important pick on him. 

 

Snell was one of many guys in a tier of sleepers I was targeting that I didnt end up with. If you were higher on him than your pitching sleepers, Bravo, but if they were one of 4-6 guys, I'm guessing you could have easily had one of the others and it not work out as well. Clevinger was certainly another one of those guys, but so were Fulmer, Sean Manea, Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, etc. I know some of those guys hit, but in my leagues they all get drafted and its hard to get the right one and the differences are humungous.

 

It's just of my personal opinion in deeper leagues, the hitters bunch up together for a while and its easier to mix and match as the season goes along, at least with 1 infield position. Like had you waited and got Asdrubal for late and got his solid first half and picked up Villar for the second half, you had a very productive SS.  Another thing is that a lot of people have a good option at infield positions that they arent fishing, so you have less competition for pickups. Everyone is always looking to improve pitching. Its rare that a team has too many good reliable pitchers.

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