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2019 First Rounders Discussion

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

damn. JoRam and lindor that far down?

 

not sure i love that early list.  arenado and turner too high IMO....not sure i can put them ahead of joram, lindor and yelich

 

also i dont like my boy bregman at 17....but hey, ill take him if hes there!

 

It's just an early look and will get updated at some point.

Just saw Aaron Judge at #47 which doesn't make any sense.

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I'm guessing nobody bothered to read the intro to that Fangraphs article and just skipped to the list.

 

It's an attempt to model ADP using historical trends and regression analysis, and is in no way intended to be perfectly accurate. Note this quote:
 

Quote

I can tell you, without even really looking at the numbers, that the model will probably struggle in some areas. Obviously, it won’t know if a player has retired. It’s unaware of seasons truncated by injury or midseason debut. It has no concept of prospect hype and will absolutely whiff on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has yet to debut but will be the prospect gem with tons of helium in 2019 fantasy drafts. It is blissfully unaware of the out-of-control Adalberto Mondesi hype train. You can yell at me all you want about how stupid that is, but you’d be yelling at a computer that can’t think for itself.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TrueShoe said:

Story and Baez considerable at the end of the first round?

 

I would not touch baez in round 1, or round 2 honestly.  Story I'd have to think about more, most likely not in 1 for me.

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Neither during the 1st. Let someone else take Baez that soon. You gotta hit in 1 n 2 

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3 hours ago, TrueShoe said:

Story and Baez considerable at the end of the first round?

Yes on Story, no on Baez.  I am probably a little more bullish on Story than some, I think the numbers are pretty legit, I realize its probably not .290, but I think he can be an average neutral player.   In roto, I always look to finish top 3, last year .265 average was 3rd, so I think he can beat that meaning he would be at least neutral or slight contributor on average. 

 

Probably if I had around the 8th pick is where he would at least be in the conversation as a selection.  

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On 10/16/2018 at 8:19 PM, SpartyOn4 said:

I'm guessing nobody bothered to read the intro to that Fangraphs article and just skipped to the list.

 

It's an attempt to model ADP using historical trends and regression analysis, and is in no way intended to be perfectly accurate. Note this quote:
 

 

I did look over that chart and math. I used to use a formula to rank my own guys, not those formulas. My biggest complaint was benintendi at 26 behind Marte?  Even blackmon I like tendi more.  Bregman low at 17.

 

Do you do this yourself ?  It's a good idea you have but it's too much. There is a more simple and reliable way, but do you. DM and I can send u something 

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On 11/6/2018 at 4:04 PM, parrothead said:

Yes on Story, no on Baez.  I am probably a little more bullish on Story than some, I think the numbers are pretty legit, I realize its probably not .290, but I think he can be an average neutral player.   In roto, I always look to finish top 3, last year .265 average was 3rd, so I think he can beat that meaning he would be at least neutral or slight contributor on average. 

 

.265 is neutral in a vacuum, but you have to look at who you could take around there instead. Story is at the bottom of those available players in terms of average. Context is important.

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My personal list, as of right now.

 

1. Trout

2. Mookie

3. Ramirez

4. Lindor

5. Machado

6. Turner

7. Martinez

8. Bregman

9. Arenado

10. Harper

11. Scherzer

12. Sale

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On 11/8/2018 at 9:00 AM, Saucy said:

 

.265 is neutral in a vacuum, but you have to look at who you could take around there instead. Story is at the bottom of those available players in terms of average. Context is important.

Honestly, Im usually not worried that much about average in the first round, I was simply making the point he is not a liability in that category.  The big question with Story is whether or not you buy the 27 steals, because in a lot of ways that is what vaults him.  If you tell me right now he is gonna reproduce his 2018 numbers, Im taking him pretty darn early, people are talking Bregman, and both had great years, but if you put them head to head in the 5 traditional categories, Story would of beat Bregman 4-1.  

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On 11/13/2018 at 10:28 AM, parrothead said:

Honestly, Im usually not worried that much about average in the first round, I was simply making the point he is not a liability in that category.  The big question with Story is whether or not you buy the 27 steals, because in a lot of ways that is what vaults him.  If you tell me right now he is gonna reproduce his 2018 numbers, Im taking him pretty darn early, people are talking Bregman, and both had great years, but if you put them head to head in the 5 traditional categories, Story would of beat Bregman 4-1.  

Story scares me that early as a bust. I just don't buy the SB like mentioned.

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Posting this after reading just the OP.

I'll preface my opinions by saying that I skew all my rankings towards H2H and my most important leagues are all 6x6

 

No chance I ever take Baez or Trea in the 1st round. Baez's profile is much too unpredictable and Turner showed last year that he's no lock for the 60+ steals everyone expected and the power (barely over .400 SLG) was really disappointing. 

 

I easily take both Bregman and Story before either of those two (not that I necessarily take Story in the 1st). Judge is also a mid-1st round pick for me. He was once again on a top 10 overall pace before the hbp derailed his season. 

 

 

Edit

read a lot of the replies, and see that both Story and Bregman were discussed quite a bit

Edited by cs3

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On 11/8/2018 at 12:02 PM, Saucy said:

My personal list, as of right now.

 

1. Trout

2. Mookie

3. Ramirez

4. Lindor

5. Machado

6. Turner

7. Martinez

8. Bregman

9. Arenado

10. Harper

11. Scherzer

12. Sale

im taking yelich 5th i think

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Nfbc first rounds so far (all $150’draft champion leagues)

 

First Round:
1 1 Betts, Mookie OF
1 2 Trout, Mike OF
1 3 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 4 Scherzer, Max P
1 5 Yelich, Christian OF
1 6 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 7 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 8 Baez, Javier 2B
1 9 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 10 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 11 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 12 deGrom, Jacob P
1 13 Turner, Trea SS
1 14 Machado, Manny SS
1 15 Harper, Bryce OF

 


NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Yelich, Christian OF
1 3 Betts, Mookie OF
1 4 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 5 Turner, Trea SS
1 6 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 7 Scherzer, Max P
1 8 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 9 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 10 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 11 Baez, Javier 2B
1 12 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 13 Harper, Bryce OF
1 14 Story, Trevor SS
1 15 Altuve, Jose 2B

 


NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 5 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 6 Baez, Javier 2B
1 7 Scherzer, Max P
1 8 deGrom, Jacob P
1 9 Turner, Trea SS
1 10 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 11 Yelich, Christian OF
1 12 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 13 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 14 Machado, Manny SS
1 15 Judge, Aaron OF 

 


NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Betts, Mookie OF
1 2 Trout, Mike OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 5 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 6 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 7 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 8 Scherzer, Max P
1 9 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 10 Yelich, Christian OF
1 11 Baez, Javier 2B
1 12 Turner, Trea SS
1 13 Altuve, Jose 2B
1 14 Blackmon, Charlie OF
1 15 Kershaw, Clayton P 

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On 11/17/2018 at 8:00 AM, jfazz23 said:

im taking yelich 5th i think

 

As a Yelich owner last year, I love the dude as much as anyone. I just can't envision a repeat. The average is real, ish. I'd project closer to .310 than his .326 from last year. No way he gets 36 homers. his HR/FB rate was 35%. That's coming down.

 

I think we're looking at a .310, 22 HR, 110 R, 90 RBI, 20 SB guy. First round value, maybe, but not top 5 IMO

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4 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

As a Yelich owner last year, I love the dude as much as anyone. I just can't envision a repeat. The average is real, ish. I'd project closer to .310 than his .326 from last year. No way he gets 36 homers. his HR/FB rate was 35%. That's coming down.

 

I think we're looking at a .310, 22 HR, 110 R, 90 RBI, 20 SB guy. First round value, maybe, but not top 5 IMO

 

I'm probably taking the under on whatever anybody in last years top 10 did. Thats just baseball, nothing to do with Yelich. Hard to have b2b monster years.  Your projection seems fine. I'd be fine with that in the middle of the first round. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

As a Yelich owner last year, I love the dude as much as anyone. I just can't envision a repeat. The average is real, ish. I'd project closer to .310 than his .326 from last year. No way he gets 36 homers. his HR/FB rate was 35%. That's coming down.

 

I think we're looking at a .310, 22 HR, 110 R, 90 RBI, 20 SB guy. First round value, maybe, but not top 5 IMO

 

1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'm probably taking the under on whatever anybody in last years top 10 did. Thats just baseball, nothing to do with Yelich. Hard to have b2b monster years.  Your projection seems fine. I'd be fine with that in the middle of the first round. 

 

 

 

i agree he may regress too.  but i think hes closer to a 30 hr guy than a 20 hr guy in milwaukee.  ill gladly take yelich in the mid first

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$50 NFBC 12-teamer.  Acuna goes 4th overall. 

 

 
R1-12
11/18 11:53 PM
Manny Machado
R1-11
11/18 9:53 PM
Trea Turner
R1-10
11/18 9:46 PM
Max Scherzer
R1-9
11/18 9:44 PM
Christian Yelich
R1-8
11/18 9:36 PM
J.D. Martinez
R1-7
11/18 9:34 PM
Alex Bregman
R1-6
11/18 9:28 PM
Nolan Arenado
R1-5
11/18 9:27 PM
Francisco Lindor
R1-4
11/18 9:25 PM
Ronald Acuna
R1-3
11/18 9:25 PM
Jose Ramirez
R1-2
11/18 9:07 PM
Mike Trout
R1-1
11/18 8:36 PM
Mookie Betts
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3 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

$50 NFBC 12-teamer.  Acuna goes 4th overall. 

 

 
R1-12
11/18 11:53 PM
Manny Machado
R1-11
11/18 9:53 PM
Trea Turner
R1-10
11/18 9:46 PM
Max Scherzer
R1-9
11/18 9:44 PM
Christian Yelich
R1-8
11/18 9:36 PM
J.D. Martinez
R1-7
11/18 9:34 PM
Alex Bregman
R1-6
11/18 9:28 PM
Nolan Arenado
R1-5
11/18 9:27 PM
Francisco Lindor
R1-4
11/18 9:25 PM
Ronald Acuna
R1-3
11/18 9:25 PM
Jose Ramirez
R1-2
11/18 9:07 PM
Mike Trout
R1-1
11/18 8:36 PM
Mookie Betts

 

 

hes gonna be top 10 easy.  anyone who thinks otherwise is just being silly.

 

i personally wont take him 4th overal but i also wont knock anyone who does

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Moar

 

NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 4 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 5 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 6 Scherzer, Max P
1 7 Yelich, Christian OF
1 8 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 9 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 10 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 11 Baez, Javier 2B
1 12 Turner, Trea SS
1 13 Machado, Manny SS
1 14 Altuve, Jose 2B
1 15 deGrom, Jacob P

 

NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 5 Scherzer, Max P
1 6 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 7 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 8 Yelich, Christian OF
1 9 Baez, Javier 2B
1 10 deGrom, Jacob P
1 11 Turner, Trea SS
1 12 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 13 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 14 Sale, Chris P
1 15 Machado, Manny SS
 

NFBC $50s Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 5 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 6 Scherzer, Max P
1 7 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 8 Turner, Trea SS
1 9 Harper, Bryce OF
1 10 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 11 Yelich, Christian OF
1 12 Sale, Chris P

 

NFBC $50 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 5 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 6 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 7 Yelich, Christian OF
1 8 Turner, Trea SS
1 9 Scherzer, Max P
1 10 Machado, Manny SS
1 11 Judge, Aaron OF
1 12 Acuna, Ronald OF

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8 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Moar

 

NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 4 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 5 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 6 Scherzer, Max P
1 7 Yelich, Christian OF
1 8 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 9 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 10 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 11 Baez, Javier 2B
1 12 Turner, Trea SS
1 13 Machado, Manny SS
1 14 Altuve, Jose 2B
1 15 deGrom, Jacob P

 

NFBC $150 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Acuna, Ronald OF
1 5 Scherzer, Max P
1 6 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 7 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 8 Yelich, Christian OF
1 9 Baez, Javier 2B
1 10 deGrom, Jacob P
1 11 Turner, Trea SS
1 12 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 13 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 14 Sale, Chris P
1 15 Machado, Manny SS
 

NFBC $50s Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 5 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 6 Scherzer, Max P
1 7 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 8 Turner, Trea SS
1 9 Harper, Bryce OF
1 10 Bregman, Alex 3B
1 11 Yelich, Christian OF
1 12 Sale, Chris P

 

NFBC $50 Draft Champions League
Round 1:

1 1 Trout, Mike OF
1 2 Betts, Mookie OF
1 3 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 4 Lindor, Francisco SS
1 5 Arenado, Nolan 3B
1 6 Martinez, J.D. OF
1 7 Yelich, Christian OF
1 8 Turner, Trea SS
1 9 Scherzer, Max P
1 10 Machado, Manny SS
1 11 Judge, Aaron OF
1 12 Acuna, Ronald OF

 

looks like there will only be 1 pitcher in the first round ADP this year

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41 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

looks like there will only be 1 pitcher in the first round ADP this year

Most likely. Sale will probably be ranked in the top 15. 

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