FF4life

Fantasy Football: What % Skill and what % Luck?

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, FF4life said:

I'm going 80% Skill, 20% Luck

 

You?

 

 

40% Skill... 60% Luck.

 

No way that you can have more skill than luck when you cannot control the outcomes.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IDK but  I drafted DJ with the #1 pick last year.. pretty hard to recover from that. 

 

Obviously, player health is one of the biggest factors and is a lot of luck. So anyone putting too much skill into the equation I think is wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Making the playoffs: 95% Skill

 

Even with bad luck (whiffing on your first round pick...Bell/Fournette owners for instance) can be overcome if you're a skilled owner.

 

Winning a championship takes a good amount of luck though.

Edited by GriffeySwag
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dunno - I thought the writing was on the wall with DJ....in a crappy offense with Bradford as QB and a rookie QB on the horizon. I wanted no part of that. And then you had the obvious concerns about Bell.

 

So those picks I think fall on the skill/educated side of things.

 

But players like: Drake, Howard, KAllen, Fournette, etc...lots of high round picks are just not performing anywhere close to players rated below them, be it because of injuries or just things not working out offensively. So I feel like that is luck....

 

50/50 sounds about right for me. 

 

In my 10 player league, with 7 bench slots, lots of people doubled up on QB's/TE's and, defense....some even have 2 kickers. That's one strategy, I guess...but you really don't give yourself a lot of chances to hit on lotto players taken in the later rounds (Ridley, Boyd, Lindsay, etc) So that part is strategy.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

90% skill. 

Much like poker, anyone can get lucky and win. But over the long run the players that have the skill win far more often because they often win when things go to plan,  they almost always win when they get lucky and they occasionally win despite bad luck.

Bad players only win when they get lucky. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like some have said before, it's skill until you get to the playoffs. Since the regular season is long, you have a lot of time to tweak and fine tune your roster. No matter the draft, you can wheel and deal through trading, the wire, and FA, enough to put together a competitive roster. 

 

Playoffs can be unfortunate if your team doesn't show up for said week or you get dealt with a couple injuries in those games. 

Edited by saintrules

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This question comes up a lot.

 

I've always felt fantasy football is a lot like cards....Say Texas hold'em.

 

I could beat the best poker player in the world on any given hand....Sometimes you just have the cards and he doesn't.  Is that luck or skill?  That's clearly luck.

 

But if I play the best poker player in the world 100 times, how many will I win then?  I'll need more than a few good hands to beat that player....I'll need some skill.

 

I look at fantasy football the same way.  The shorter time period you're looking at, the more luck is involved.  Sometimes owners jut have a lucky week....Or even a string of lucky weeks.  Heck, sometimes they can be lucky for a whole season.  I mean, I've been in a league for 20 years with the same group of guys.  We had one guy win it all last year and he made like 2 transactions all year, played guys on bye weeks, played guys that were injured....and still ended up winning it all.  Now we've done the league 20 years and this guy has probably been in the playoffs 2-3 times and had never won the league.  However, on the heels of Todd Gurley, he won it all last year.  Now is this guy skilled or did he get "lucky" last year?  I say his 20 year track record speaks for itself and he mostly got lucky.

 

By a similar token, I've been in the same 14 team league 20 years and have never missed the playoffs.  I've won the league 5 times and been in the finals 5 other times and lost.  I'd say it takes some skill to consistently be competitive year after year in a game that can be subject to so much chance.

 

I don't know about percentages but I think it depends on the time period.  The shorter the time period, the more luck is involved.  On a weekly basis, it's probably something like 80% luck and 20% skill as anything can happen any give week with injuries or whatever.  Over a whole season it's probably more like 50/50 but sometimes things just happen that can't be overcome.  And over multiple seasons, it's probably more like 80% skill and 20% luck.

 

Generally, I think people that stay informed, do their research and are diligent in managing their team will have an edge over those that are just winging it in the long run.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Building a competitive roster that will consistently put up enough points to give you a chance every week is maybe 75% skill and 25% luck.

 

However, there's a luck element I've been thinking a lot about recently, and I'm not sure how to put a number on it.  And this is the idea that weekly variance plays such a huge role in head-to-head outcomes that even if you had the final 2018 fantasy points totals for every player on draft night (but without having access to the weekly point totals), you might not be able to assemble a championship roster.

 

Whoever played against the Jared Goff / Cooper Kupp stack last week almost certainly lost their matchup.  But the same is true for anyone who faced the Trubisky / Cohen stack -- yet anyone who rolled out that combination four weeks in a row would be 1-3.  There are combinations every week that threaten to defeat any team, no matter how well constructed.

 

Supposing that we knew on draft night that Trubisky finishes as the QB19 and Cohen finishes as the WR54, and that your Week 4 opponent would take these players if you didn't, would you be able to build a roster that could compete season-long and also win you Week 4?  Your players have to go off in the right combination on the right weeks, and you also have to avoid other players on the right weeks, in order to be assured of a playoff berth and an eventual championship.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

90% luck - you could go 13-0 all season, hit the playoffs and then 4 of your starters are playing in a Tsunami / Winter / Heatwave / Hailstorm...1 of your guys Brian Westbrook knees it at the 1, another gets 3 TD's taken back by penalties... too many out of control variables to think this is skill...

 

Ask Carol from accounting who won 2 years on auto draft and has had 0 WW pickups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, next big thing cp84 said:

70% skill, 20% luck, 10% incompetent nfl coaches

The coaches can be so annoying.

 

This man

 image.jpeg.73ab7b8157f3fad4346082af9c7e8090.jpeg

 

made this guy

Image result for todd gurley

 

a fantasy bust while fully healthy. That is extremely hard to do and the stupidity speaks for itself.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

60% Luck 40% Skill. 

 

Luck:

- Injuries.

- high variance plays can swing a bad week to an amazing week.

- Broken plays. If a defender trips or bad communication, your RB runs for 80 yd TD.

 

Skill

-Drafting. Some people just have good gut feeling decision making when its a coin flip pick between player A and player B. (It's still luck in it but I think it's more skill)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

65/35. You can draft and maintain a good team and lose to a garbage team in the playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

50/50. Two guys in my league that haven't made ONE waiver wire move or changed one spot in their roster through 4 weeks are leading the league simply because their draft picks have overwhelmingly performed. But these are the same guys that are either barely gonna make the playoffs or won't make it because they obviously have such over confidence in their stud starters that they have been completely inactive on great WW picks and have some really, really bad players occupying bench spots for them and in one case 2 DEFs and 2 Kickers lol. 

 

I on the other hand have lost 2 guys to injury and have dealt with underperforming players drafted highly yet been very active in my research and ww adds and have picked up the likes of Boyd, Lindsay, Gio, and C Thompson. I've fought like hell to be 2-2 but staying active in research and in the wire I believe gives me an advantage over the over confident guy with a few stud starters that never tries to improve his lineup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.