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2019 Draft Strategy

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4 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Based on NFBC ADP:

 

Buehler - 4th round

Flaherty - 6th round

In the FSTA draft, first 15 or so rounds are posted, Buehler went 3rd round, Flaherty 6th.  Buehler is creeping up to P1 status, in that draft just to put into perspective, in the middle of the 3rd round 4 out of 5 picks were pitchers: Snell, Severino, Syndergaard and then Buehler.  I think by draft season in March he will be flirting with a top 25-30 pick overall in some leagues.  

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I'll wait for Flaherty all day long at those ADPs. 

 

Flaherty did everything Buehler did except he was on a ho-hum Cardinals team instead of in the LA spotlight. I like both of these two a ton, and who doesn't, but that gap in price is unjustified. 

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1 hour ago, Bigfische said:

I'll wait for Flaherty all day long at those ADPs. 

 

Flaherty did everything Buehler did except he was on a ho-hum Cardinals team instead of in the LA spotlight. I like both of these two a ton, and who doesn't, but that gap in price is unjustified. 

statically buehler >>Flaherty last year and it wasn't close 

understand that's now how next year stats are going to play out but what buehler did his last 80 inns were Kershaw like 

 

walker had 3 months last season where he made 5 mlb starts. his era was 2.32, 1.52, 1.95 in those 3 months whip, baa were super elite as well

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3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

statically buehler >>Flaherty last year and it wasn't close 

understand that's now how next year stats are going to play out but what buehler did his last 80 inns were Kershaw like 

 

walker had 3 months last season where he made 5 mlb starts. his era was 2.32, 1.52, 1.95 in those 3 months whip, baa were super elite as well

I agree Buehler is ahead of Flaherty, just not 3 rounds better.

 

Flaherty strikes people out almost as well and his XFIP was about a 3rd of a run higher. If I'm drafting a low track record pitcher, give me one 3 rounds later and a touch behind. It's a cost preference thing I guess.

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2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Buehler will go around the same time as Kershaw.  Hard to believe.  

In FSTA draft you are spot on, both were 3rd rounders about 8 picks apart. 

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No matter how much I read,see,hear,research or listen,the one strategy that I can’t get behind is drafting an elite closer.  Or even getting any closers early.  They flame out at a higher rate than any position by far, even the “sure things.”  They only pitch like 75 innings,which is such a small percentage of the innings cap (or saves can be totally punted in h2h).  I’ve had great success waiting and mining guys like knebel, hand  and leclerc off the waiver wire (although that does depend on the league.) I will also never be in a closer run,unless I don’t like anyone else that much and I’m near the very top of the run.  I can’t fathom taking a guy like Doolittle in the same round as Jansen.  I will probably certainly wait on closers again.  It’s the one strategy that seems to pay off for me because a lot don’t.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

No matter how much I read,see,hear,research or listen,the one strategy that I can’t get behind is drafting an elite closer.  Or even getting any closers early.  They flame out at a higher rate than any position by far, even the “sure things.”  They only pitch like 75 innings,which is such a small percentage of the innings cap (or saves can be totally punted in h2h).  I’ve had great success waiting and mining guys like knebel, hand  and leclerc off the waiver wire (although that does depend on the league.) I will also never be in a closer run,unless I don’t like anyone else that much and I’m near the very top of the run.  I can’t fathom taking a guy like Doolittle in the same round as Jansen.  I will probably certainly wait on closers again.  It’s the one strategy that seems to pay off for me because a lot don’t.

Tend to agree, although this year Im in a 15-teamer and I think I am on the turn, I have thought about going "outside the box"  at like the 4-5 turn and going either Closer Closer or Catcher Catcher if all are still there and see if I cant set off a run of "reaches" at that position.  Always kind of feel like at or near the turns in drafts you either can get out in front and start the run or trail from behind - can be a helpless feeling sometimes

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Tend to agree, although this year Im in a 15-teamer and I think I am on the turn, I have thought about going "outside the box"  at like the 4-5 turn and going either Closer Closer or Catcher Catcher if all are still there and see if I cant set off a run of "reaches" at that position.  Always kind of feel like at or near the turns in drafts you either can get out in front and start the run or trail from behind - can be a helpless feeling sometimes

I get where you’re coming from here but I can’t say I agree with doubling down on these 2 positions just for the principle of baiting them into a run. With catchers, you can get a Grandal or a Ramos like 145+, and their dropoff from a Sanchez is not as bad as you’d think. That 4-5th rounder could go to a rock solid OF2 or even a Bellinger/Rendon. Same with closers, work the wire and also snag some guys in the 100-150 range and you’ll be just fine there. Half the guys going 65-80 now were wayyyy late round gems last year i.e. Treinan. Closing is such a carousel, I see those trends repeating

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Tend to agree, although this year Im in a 15-teamer and I think I am on the turn, I have thought about going "outside the box"  at like the 4-5 turn and going either Closer Closer or Catcher Catcher if all are still there and see if I cant set off a run of "reaches" at that position.  Always kind of feel like at or near the turns in drafts you either can get out in front and start the run or trail from behind - can be a helpless feeling sometimes

From experience,it’s not a good idea to try and force others into drafting a certain way.  You might start a run, but it’s also possible  other 10 guys or so have a “don’t draft a closer until round 7 no matter what” rule.  Imagine raisel Iglesias or Roberto osuna being there 30 picks later. As for catchers,there won’t be a run on them,there just aren’t enough. I mean,there might be one later as guys desperately scramble to get a top 10 in the later rounds.  If anything, at  the turn,I think a c,rp combo could start a run on both positions. Buy not at 4,5...maybe 6,7..if you can get a Top 5 closer and a top 5 catcher you’d have a good leg up where guys might start to panic.  You could have Contreras/osuna while a guy in the middle ends up with Alfaro/Cody Allen type of thing in the same 2 rounds .  I know I just contradicted myself but  hey man, it’s fantasy baseball.  Best of luck.

Edited by Cesare13

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47 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

I get where you’re coming from here but I can’t say I agree with doubling down on these 2 positions just for the principle of baiting them into a run. With catchers, you can get a Grandal or a Ramos like 145+, and their dropoff from a Sanchez is not as bad as you’d think. That 4-5th rounder could go to a rock solid OF2 or even a Bellinger/Rendon. Same with closers, work the wire and also snag some guys in the 100-150 range and you’ll be just fine there. Half the guys going 65-80 now were wayyyy late round gems last year i.e. Treinan. Closing is such a carousel, I see those trends repeating

No way ramos goes 145 after realmuto. I bet it’s within 20 in actual non mocks.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

From experience,it’s not a good idea to try and force others into drafting a certain way.  You might start a run, but it’s also possible  other 10 guys or so have a “don’t draft a closer until round 7 no matter what” rule.  Imagine raisel Iglesias or Roberto osuna being there 30 picks later. As for catchers,there won’t be a run on them,there just aren’t enough. I mean,there might be one later as guys desperately scramble to get a top 10 in the later rounds.  If anything, at  the turn,I think a c,rp combo could start a run on both positions. Buy not at 4,5...maybe 6,7..if you can get a Top 5 closer and a top 5 catcher you’d have a good leg up where guys might start to panic.  You could have Contreras/osuna while a guy in the middle ends up with Alfaro/Cody Allen type of thing in the same 2 rounds .  I know I just contradicted myself but  hey man, it’s fantasy baseball.  Best of luck.

Not really the plan was just kind of spitballing in terms of "what if I did this" and thinking about some different angles.  

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17 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

No matter how much I read,see,hear,research or listen,the one strategy that I can’t get behind is drafting an elite closer.  Or even getting any closers early.  They flame out at a higher rate than any position by far, even the “sure things.”  They only pitch like 75 innings,which is such a small percentage of the innings cap (or saves can be totally punted in h2h).  I’ve had great success waiting and mining guys like knebel, hand  and leclerc off the waiver wire (although that does depend on the league.) I will also never be in a closer run,unless I don’t like anyone else that much and I’m near the very top of the run.  I can’t fathom taking a guy like Doolittle in the same round as Jansen.  I will probably certainly wait on closers again.  It’s the one strategy that seems to pay off for me because a lot don’t.

 

Yeah, I actually think with so much uncertainty, it benefits this approach even more than years in which there are more closer jobs locked down.  If you are active should be able to find saves.  I like going for setup/committee guys with strong skills in the mid to late rounds.  

 

That said, I actually took Hader in the late 6th round of a 5x5 S+H league this week, lol.   My projection rankings actually had him and his 130 projected Ks as the #1 RP in terms of dollar values and ahead of all but the top 15 SP.  Plus I just wanted to own the guy. I said once Diaz went off the board, I was going to target him with my next pick.  Probably stupid, but sometimes you just gotta roll the dice. 

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In a 14 teamer I’m always up in the air when it comes to drafting my SP 1. Go hitting 1st 4 rounds or go hitting first 3 then SP 1. 

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12 minutes ago, coleporter said:

In a 14 teamer I’m always up in the air when it comes to drafting my SP 1. Go hitting 1st 4 rounds or go hitting first 3 then SP 1. 

 

Just depends on what your mates do.  I always go for highest dollar value based on the projections for my league in the first several rounds.  Usually that means hitter, but I've noticed in a few of my drafts that the top pitchers have a high enough value to pick them in the third. And I've noticed that the drafts where that happens, I end up liking my team better than the ones where I wait on a pitcher.  When I wait, I find that I'm picking pitchers with projected dollar values a lot lower than the hitters going around them.  

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I typically like to get a SP in the first 4 rounds to make sure I can get one of the elite ones to anchor my staff. In round 1 I almost always go hitting but after that I am open to getting a SP if the value is there even if it's in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. after that I still go best player available but do tend to lean toward hitting a little more as I find my ability to pick out breakout pitchers better than hitters later in drafts.

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On 2018-10-09 at 11:39 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

No catchers til the end 

 

I paid for Posey and Contreras last year and am waiting til the end this year. Not worth taking one until late.

 

 

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On 2019-01-28 at 4:23 PM, parrothead said:

In the FSTA draft, first 15 or so rounds are posted, Buehler went 3rd round, Flaherty 6th.  Buehler is creeping up to P1 status, in that draft just to put into perspective, in the middle of the 3rd round 4 out of 5 picks were pitchers: Snell, Severino, Syndergaard and then Buehler.  I think by draft season in March he will be flirting with a top 25-30 pick overall in some leagues.  

 

I love Buehler and he looks legit as hell but that price is way too risky for me. Seems like he could be an injury risk if they push him too much.

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right now you could get the #1 fantasy player last year,  the #2 or 3 hitter 2 years ago and the #5 hitter 3 years ago with your first 3 picks this year

 

jdm, judge/Stanton, bryant

 

not sold on Bryant but ending up with a realistic shot of owning 3 of the top 10 bats right off the start would be nice

Edited by colepenhagen
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42 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

right now you could get the #1 fantasy player last year,  the #2 or 3 hitter 2 years ago and the #5 hitter 3 years ago with your first 3 picks this year

 

jdm, judge/Stanton, bryant

 

not sold on Bryant but ending up with a realistic shot of owning 3 of the top 10 bats right off the start would be nice

 

This is an excellent thought process because if you get those 3 guys I would get an ace in the 4th then the 5th would simply be best available. Having 3 hitters of that caliber is an excellent foundation to build your offense around. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 9:55 PM, Cesare13 said:

No way ramos goes 145 after realmuto. I bet it’s within 20 in actual non mocks.

 

I'll take that bet

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On 1/29/2019 at 6:11 PM, Cesare13 said:

No matter how much I read,see,hear,research or listen,the one strategy that I can’t get behind is drafting an elite closer.  Or even getting any closers early.  They flame out at a higher rate than any position by far, even the “sure things.”  They only pitch like 75 innings,which is such a small percentage of the innings cap (or saves can be totally punted in h2h).  I’ve had great success waiting and mining guys like knebel, hand  and leclerc off the waiver wire (although that does depend on the league.) I will also never be in a closer run,unless I don’t like anyone else that much and I’m near the very top of the run.  I can’t fathom taking a guy like Doolittle in the same round as Jansen.  I will probably certainly wait on closers again.  It’s the one strategy that seems to pay off for me because a lot don’t.

 

Treinen and Diaz are getting overdrafted, but having at least one solid closer with a fair amount of leash isn't worthless.  It's much easier to hit on one spec closer than two and you aren't dumpster diving burning up as many roster spots and faab.  Add to that, there simply aren't as many true closers racking up saves like there use to be.  I really like Brad Hand.  He's usually going after Diaz, Treinen, Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman.  He has the skills, leash, on a good team, and no vulture around to take saves away.  

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Off topic: Was the site down for everyone yesterday?

 

Anyways, I just drafted my first team.  I honestly dont think im taking pitchers in the first 5 rounds.  i did the same last year and ended up with a few teams with Nola, Corbin, Bauer, Morton, Taillon  etc

 

this year im gonna attack hitting early and if someone like bauer, severino or corbin drop to around pick 50 i might take them....if not, i think my staff is going to look something like Flaherty, Clevinger, Marquez, Wheeler, Darvish, Pivetta etc etc

 

thoughts?

Edited by jfazz23
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On 10/5/2018 at 12:04 PM, zstlj said:

Since 18' just ended and baseball (especially fantasy) is greatly impacted on trends and  how the game is changing constantly to favor one type of player or another early on in drafts. 

 

1) What stats or player types/positions  do you plan target early/late ? 

 

-  I only draft stud SPs ( may change) and guys like merrifeld or benintendi or guys who score tons of runs early on. I never have anyone hitting 260 with 30 HRs until I can't wait. Trading for a kDavis is much easier and more value then drafting him when he usually is taken. 

 

2) Has or will your strategy change due to anything you saw this season? 

 

-  The Bullpen and starters going less and less has me confused. Especially for people who use Wins. If wins are becoming extremely tough to get, then a SP can really only be worth 3 categories. I'd like to hear you guys opinions on this ^

 

3) What mistakes did you make this year?

 

-I had the issue of platoon guys with the Brewers and Dodgers (Muncy Kemp Schoop Santana and Braun ) 

- Dropped Matt Carpenter 

-Spent 50$ in transactions trying to find Houston's closer all year. 

 

 

 

 

Basically , has any anomaly or trend  made you rethink how you need to draft?

 

 

 

 

Getting back to the main topic, it all depends:

I have a 12 team keep 7 where I am simply drafting to win.  My keepers are so stacked I'm not even considering ozzie albies, stephen strasburg or lorenzo cain. 

Another is a 14 team keep up to 9.  My keepers are so crappy I'm drafting in rebuild mode. Early rounds I'm looking for the best available or guys who I think will justify their keeper round the next season (players are kept in the round you draft them in). If he can't help me in 2020/21 I'm not interested.

 

I have a 16 team redraft league that uses runs, rbi's, sb, obp and slg w/ the 5 traditional pitching cats with 4OF, CI and MI slots where the first draft is a lottery to pick our draft position.  I'm looking for that OPS CI or MI guy. Probably a stud pitcher in r3 and a closer around r7.  Outside of those benchmarks I'm looking at best available in the first 9 rounds, filling in holes in rounds 10-13 and sleeper and value picks there after.

 

In all leagues there are always players I am eye balling.  I will never go into a draft deciding, 'round 1, I take this guy/position. Then round 2 this guy/position" etc. Drafts are too dynamic to do that.  But I will go in saying, "If player A is available still in round X, I'm taking him"

After that

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