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ZEKE for Hopkins and Thomas

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

care to list the top wrs being beat out by WR2s and 3s?? LOL

Lets keep to the guy in this thread.  Hopkins has been beaten by tyler boyd 2 out of 4 weeks.   Dhop has been beaten by kenny g 2 out of 4 weeks.

 

Ab, adams, allen, green are being beaten by wr2s and wr3 every week.  Thats the way the league is this year.

Its kinda funny that you put a LOL behind that comment.  Sorta proves the point that the rezction to this trade is name value, draft capital, and a ppr skew.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

OK have fun missing the playoffs

Lets keep it civil.  This is the equivalent to a 5 year old saying. "stupid head".

 

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5 hours ago, Scott3705 said:

Misspoke... for last 2 year or 3 years i guess. Bunch of injuries and playing 2nd/3rd fiddle.

 

Ok. Why don't you like him for fantasy?

 

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7 hours ago, Scott3705 said:

Lets keep to the guy in this thread.  Hopkins has been beaten by tyler boyd 2 out of 4 weeks.   Dhop has been beaten by kenny g 2 out of 4 weeks.

 

Ab, adams, allen, green are being beaten by wr2s and wr3 every week.  Thats the way the league is this year.

Its kinda funny that you put a LOL behind that comment.  Sorta proves the point that the rezction to this trade is name value, draft capital, and a ppr skew.

Well yeah if it's "the top few players" against the field it makes more sense to pick the field. Don't forget it's only 4 weeks into the season.

 

But why aren't Thomas and Hopkins good for standard?

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8 hours ago, Scott3705 said:

Lets keep to the guy in this thread.  Hopkins has been beaten by tyler boyd 2 out of 4 weeks.   Dhop has been beaten by kenny g 2 out of 4 weeks.

 

Ab, adams, allen, green are being beaten by wr2s and wr3 every week.  Thats the way the league is this year.

Its kinda funny that you put a LOL behind that comment.  Sorta proves the point that the rezction to this trade is name value, draft capital, and a ppr skew.

Also lets not add WRs not included in the trade...

 

DJ/Barkley/Hunt/Fournette are "being beaten weekly by RB2s and 3s"

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I love Zeke but givin your depth with Mixon, CMC and Brieda, not to mention Conner if a Bell trade does happen.  This deal would make your team a top contender imo, with Thomas, Nuke, JSS, Golladay & Baldwin.  So that tells you I would move Edleman

 

 

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/726116-lmiller-or-kdrake-or-pickup-ablue-whir/

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7 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Well yeah if it's "the top few players" against the field it makes more sense to pick the field. Don't forget it's only 4 weeks into the season.

 

But why aren't Thomas and Hopkins good for standard?

I picked golladay and boyd because i have both and are examples of what i am saying about replacing wr production and they came to mind when you asked about wr2s and wr3s beating wr1s.  We are focusing in on top 5 wrs vs top 5 rbs here in essence talking about zeke, hop, and thomas.  Top 5 rbs (gurley, gordon, zeke, kamara, barkeley) are outperforming and outconsistencying (aware thats not a word) rbs 12 thru 24 by a large margin.  Top 5 wrs (ab, dhop, thomas, green, evans) are doing fine, but the league is full of reasonable starters at the position.  How much better do you feel playing kamara vs royce freeman or jay ajayi, compared to playing thomas over kenny g, or cooper kupp.  Royce freeman is going to beat kamara maybe 2 games this year.  Cooper kupp is going to beat thomas way more than that.  Its standard ...  3/40/1 is just as good as 10/100/0.

Im not saying they arent good for standard.  What i am saying is given how bad the rb position is and how deep the wr position is this year, in standard scoring, you need to put even more of a premium on consistent rbs this year.  Tons of john browns, boyds, allisons, asvs to fill lineups.  Whats the next rb coming out that is going to get a consistent 8 points a game that no one knows about?  My most likely guess is donta foreman.  Also, i just generally like depth at rb because they do get hurt more.

 

All of this goes away in ppr because there are guys like thompson to throw out there and aleast give you some floor and the replacement isnt as difficult and the volume wrs pull away from the pack.

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7 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Also lets not add WRs not included in the trade...

 

DJ/Barkley/Hunt/Fournette are "being beaten weekly by RB2s and 3s"

Barkey is the only top5 in that pack which is prettt much my point about top 5 rbs this year.  Look at the 3 names you have to take out.

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32 minutes ago, Scott3705 said:

Barkey is the only top5 in that pack which is prettt much my point about top 5 rbs this year.  Look at the 3 names you have to take out.

I dont get the cherrypicking, and those WRs you mentioned are already owned. Top 10 RB for 2 Top 10 WRs is a great deal depending on roster and he has the RB depth to make the move.

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10 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

I dont get the cherrypicking, and those WRs you mentioned are already owned. Top 10 RB for 2 Top 10 WRs is a great deal depending on roster and he has the RB depth to make the move.

Im not trying to cherrypick.  Im talking about this trade giving up gurley thru saquon.  I dont have the same perspective if this is hunt, but you also arent getting the same wrs for him.  The trade is about one top 5 rb for two top 5 wrs.  Its not the same, but think about the reason why the reverse snake came around in the early 2000 (not exactly the same because there is no LT).. it was because the top 5 rbs being taken 1 thru 5 were so much more valuable than everyone else that it was just unfair.  You could get the number 1 and 2 wideout in the first two rounds, and you were still way behind the 8 ball cause no one was playing ppr and the game was still in the process of morphing into a passing game.  Im a firm believer that ppr skews everyones perspective in ranking standard. In 2016, ab, odell, julio were 1 through 3 in standard even though most of the zero rbs guys were saying "this is ridiculous.  Not in standard"

 

If you play two wrs, this is a better lineup

Rb Zeke,macaffrey

Wr juju ,(golladay or edelman depending on matchup)

Flex mixon

Vs

Rb Macaffrey, mixon

Wr thomas, dhop

Flex breida (argument for juju if there is a good matchup)

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I find these types of roster construction strategy posts more interesting than picking this guy vs this guy which you can literally just go on fantasypros and get better advise then here.  So I actually went through and pulled data through the first 4 weeks to see how close my "feelings" were on this.  I think this post is a good conversation.

 

Through 4 weeks, if you look at the scoring of the top 5 Elite RB's vs. the top 5 Elite WR's and compare the drop off from those Top 5 Elite RB's to a RB 2 and the Elite 5 WR to a WR2, it looks a lot like what I am saying. 

 

Controlled for injuries and byes, the scoring in a standard league looks like this by week:  

 

(RBtop 5 - Gurley, Gordon, Kamara, Ellito, Bark  WRTop 5 AB, Julio, Thomas, Hopkins, JUJU.  I used fantasy pros consensus Week 5 rankings to define a WR2. ) (removed guys like edelman, ingram, freeman, baldwin, etc)

 

  1 2 3 4
Average        
 Elite RB     21.36            18.26      16.50    25.52
 Elite WR     14.86            13.42      10.74    12.62
 Difference       6.50              4.84        5.76    12.90
         
 RB2     12.02              9.55      11.19    10.72
 WR2       8.84            10.68      14.40    15.06
 Difference       3.18           (1.13)      (3.21)    (4.34)
         
 Elite RB     21.36            18.26      16.50    25.52
 RB2     12.02              9.55      11.19    10.72
 Drop off       9.34              8.71        5.31    14.80
         
 Elite WR     14.86            13.42      10.74    12.62
 WR 2       8.84            10.68      14.40    15.06
 Drop off       6.02              2.74      (3.66)    (2.44)

 

 

Could do it for last year, but honestly that would be nuts and I think this year is different than last. 

 

The data shows Elite RB's are more valuable than Elite WR's which obviously wasn't in question.  The data also shows that the drop off from an elite RB to an RB2 type (Matt Breida through Tcoleman/McCoy) is significant.   Compare it to the drop off from Elite WR's to the WR2's (Tate through JBrown) and you see that WR2's have actually outperformed the 1's for 2 weeks and are generally much closer to their elite counterparts than the RB2's are to theirs.  

 

This is all to say, that I still maintain that it is a bad trade in standard this year to give up Zeke for two Stud WR's.   There is so much depth at the WR position this year and the RB position is in shambles after you get past McCaffrey.

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