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Pascal Siakam 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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4 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

There's only been 43 seasons even where someone has averaged 60% or more on 8 or more attempts a game.  There's been only two players that didn't play close to the basket in that list: Cedric Maxwell and Johnny Dawkins.  Three if you include a dude from 1960.

 

I will guarantee that Pascal Siakam doesn't shoot over 60% this season, unless he like tears his ACL next week and his season ends, or something like that.

Well, it looks like that people who watch Raptors games (I am one of them) have  very different opinion about Siakam compared to the people who just look at the box score.

It really does not matter where player plays, what matters is where player takes his shots.  And I will repeat what you will see during Raptors game:   Siakam takes his shots at the rim or wide open 2pm/3pm.  If he misses few wide open shots, he does not take them anymore. He attacks the rim.

 

And if  you can guarantee that Siakam will not shoot 60% over the season "unless he like tears his ACL next week and his season ends" I will  accept that as your opinion and stop at that.

It just leaves bad taste in my mouth, wishing someone to get injured just to prove your point.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Well, it looks like that people who watch Raptors games (I am one of them) have  very different opinion about Siakam compared to the people who just look at the box score.

It really does not matter where player plays, what matters is where player takes his shots.  And I will repeat what you will see during Raptors game:   Siakam takes his shots at the rim or wide open 2pm/3pm.  If he misses few wide open shots, he does not take them anymore. He attacks the rim.

 

And if  you can guarantee that Siakam will not shoot 60% over the season "unless he like tears his ACL next week and his season ends" I will  accept that as your opinion and stop at that.

It just leaves bad taste in my mouth, wishing someone to get injured just to prove your point.

 

 

Huh? Dude, siakam isn't good enough to have one of the best perimeter fg% seasons of all time. He's just not. I'm not wishing he gets hurt, why would you even think that? I'm just pointing the only way he can finish this season above 60% from the field is if his season ends before he can regress to the mean. 

 

That's just common sense. You actually think he's going to shoot over 60% on the year? lol

Edited by Tom Chambers
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8 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

It really does not matter where player plays, what matters is where player takes his shots.  And I will repeat what you will see during Raptors game:   Siakam takes his shots at the rim or wide open 2pm/3pm.  If he misses few wide open shots, he does not take them anymore. He attacks the rim.

This checks out.  From 0-3':

2016-17 -- .463FGA%/.600FG%

2017-18 -- .456FGA%/.728FG%

2018-19 -- .518FGA%/.793FG%

 

For comparison, 0-3', 2018-19:

Whiteside -- .500FGA%/.754FG%

Sabonis -- .550FGA%/.855FG%

Drummond -- .581FGA%/.690FG%

 

He's taking the modern game to heart this year, with >97% of his shots coming from inside10' or beyond the arc. Coach's dream, fantasy gold.

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1 hour ago, bdy1 said:

This checks out.  From 0-3':

2016-17 -- .463FGA%/.600FG%

2017-18 -- .456FGA%/.728FG%

2018-19 -- .518FGA%/.793FG%

 

For comparison, 0-3', 2018-19:

Whiteside -- .500FGA%/.754FG%

Sabonis -- .550FGA%/.855FG%

Drummond -- .581FGA%/.690FG%

 

He's taking the modern game to heart this year, with >97% of his shots coming from inside10' or beyond the arc. Coach's dream, fantasy gold.

Nice thanks for that insight. I'm excited to own this guy for the rest of the season. 

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20 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

Huh? Dude, siakam isn't good enough to have one of the best perimeter fg% seasons of all time. He's just not. I'm not wishing he gets hurt, why would you even think that? I'm just pointing the only way he can finish this season above 60% from the field is if his season ends before he can regress to the mean. 

 

That's just common sense. You actually think he's going to shoot over 60% on the year? lol

 

I do.  Until I see otherwise I'm going with over on 60%.  It's already been stated, his perimeter FG doesn't matter because he doesn't take long 2's or bad shots.  He knows his game, doesn't force much, and with this offensive system I don't see why he can't at least get close to 60% for the year, especially if he begins to hit his 3's more consistently.  If not, his absolute floor is still well over 50%, and that's a damn good valuable stat in today's world of bricklayers and FG destroyers.  

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46 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I do.  Until I see otherwise I'm going with over on 60%.  It's already been stated, his perimeter FG doesn't matter because he doesn't take long 2's or bad shots.  He knows his game, doesn't force much, and with this offensive system I don't see why he can't at least get close to 60% for the year, especially if he begins to hit his 3's more consistently.  If not, his absolute floor is still well over 50%, and that's a damn good valuable stat in today's world of bricklayers and FG destroyers.  

 

Okay, well let's see how this historically great season prediction goes.  God forbid someone has a hot streak to start the season.  No, it can't be that, it's gotta be one of the greatest FG% seasons from a perimeter player of all time...who also averages taking 2 threes a game.

 

vaya-con-dios.gif?w=650

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1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

Okay, well let's see how this historically great season prediction goes.  God forbid someone has a hot streak to start the season.  No, it can't be that, it's gotta be one of the greatest FG% seasons from a perimeter player of all time...who also averages taking 2 threes a game.

 

vaya-con-dios.gif?w=650

bruh they prolly think he will average close to 20 points ros like he did for his eastern conference player of the week as well...no reason to slow down right?

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1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

Okay, well let's see how this historically great season prediction goes.  God forbid someone has a hot streak to start the season.  No, it can't be that, it's gotta be one of the greatest FG% seasons from a perimeter player of all time...who also averages taking 2 threes a game.

 

vaya-con-dios.gif?w=650

He's a power forward who scores in transition and plays around the rim. His role on offense is to make layups.

 

60% is high, but we're not talking about a 56 game hit streak. Last year five guys did it including Montrezl Harrell. Curently 9 guys are better than .600 at 20+ minutes. The way the game is pulling rim protectors out to the perimeter, the list should get longer every year. With what he's done so far, 56-57% is a reasonable over/under. 60% would surprise, but not shock.  

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10 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

 

He's a power forward who scores in transition and plays around the rim. His role on offense is to make layups.

 

60% is high, but we're not talking about a 56 game hit streak. Last year five guys did it including Montrezl Harrell. Curently 9 guys are better than .600 at 20+ minutes. The way the game is pulling rim protectors out to the perimeter, the list should get longer every year. With what he's done so far, 56-57% is a reasonable over/under. 60% would surprise, but not shock.  

I mean I already talked about that in this post.  Note how I say "non big man".

On 11/11/2018 at 3:03 PM, Tom Chambers said:

 

There's only been 43 seasons even where someone has averaged 60% or more on 8 or more attempts a game.  There's been only two players that didn't play close to the basket in that list: Cedric Maxwell and Johnny Dawkins.  Three if you include a dude from 1960.

 

I will guarantee that Pascal Siakam doesn't shoot over 60% this season, unless he like tears his ACL next week and his season ends, or something like that.

 

But let's be more specific, more concrete, to account for the fact that Siakam takes 1.7 threes per game.  I'll just let the link do the talking.  The list of players who've averaged over 60% shooting, on at least 8 attempts a game, with 1.5 of them being 3s:

 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.600&c2stat=fga_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=8&c3stat=fg3a_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=1.5&order_by=ws

 

Now me?  I'd guess the first person to do something like that would be, I dunno, Kevin Durant.  LeBron James.  Someone like that.  But we have people in this thread really giving their answer as "Pascal Siakam".  I get everyone is excited about the guy, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to be realistic, right?

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I’m good with Siakam giving me 50-55 FG a game. Still really good.

 

Not sure why we’re using 60.00% as the benchmark. It’s number semantics. He could average 58.75% and while he won’t go past the artificial 60.00% threshold, it’ll still be really impressive.

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Tom Chambers: What is your over under for his fg%?  Since 60% is obviously a completely unnatainable number where do you predict him to finish?

 

i honestly don’t think he’ll shoot 60% but it wouldn’t take a historical season because he is a role player. He doesn’t take shots at the end of the shot clock. He shoots when he is either wide open from three or if he is within 5 feet of the basket. He scores a ton of his points in transition with no defender in front of him. 

 

I would put put his over under around 55% this year and I don’t think that the difference in 55 and 60 has any real impact on his fantasy value considering almost everyone who owns him either picked him off waivers or drafted him in the 150-200 range. 

 

Put it a number besides your obvious disdain for 60. Let’s see how close you get. I’ll say 56 fg for the year. 

Edited by GJDHouse
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1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

Okay, well let's see how this historically great season prediction goes.  God forbid someone has a hot streak to start the season.  No, it can't be that, it's gotta be one of the greatest FG% seasons from a perimeter player of all time...who also averages taking 2 threes a game.

 

 

Imagine someone wasting so much effort on critiquing a player (you probably missed on waivers) and referring to Pascal Siakam as a "perimeter player"

 

 

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Sure, 56.  I don't give a s---, I'm just responding to the guy that was like "it's not gonna go under 60%", which, yes, would be historic based on the number of shots he takes.

 

Is this gonna be Lonzo part 2?

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1 minute ago, royalm said:

 

Imagine someone wasting so much effort on critiquing a player (you probably missed on waivers) and referring to Pascal Siakam as a "perimeter player"

 

 

Imagine only having one league and not owning basically every top 200 player, so you get all emotional and attached to the 13 guys you currently have.

 

Just think about it.

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1 minute ago, royalm said:

I'll take 56% with solid production for free, thanks!

 ...great?  I don't get why you're defending him.  He's not on trial.  Neither are you.  This isn't a cheerleader forum, it's for realistic assessing players.  The idea that he's going to continue to shoot historically well is silly.  I'm not sure why you're somehow taking that observation personally.  Can you tell me?

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Just now, Tom Chambers said:

 ...great?  I don't get why you're defending him.  He's not on trial.  Neither are you.  This isn't a cheerleader forum, it's for realistic assessing players.  The idea that he's going to continue to shoot historically well is silly.  I'm not sure why you're somehow taking that observation personally.  Can you tell me?

 

Because you referred to 3rd year Pascal Siakam as a perimeter player which pretty much means

1. You haven't watched a single Raptors game

2. You're hating to hate

 

Idgaf if he's gonna sustain 60% (I'll happily drop him if the Raps decide he's the odd man out in their bigs rotation) but referring to him as someone who plays on the perimeter (instead of a freak athlete who gets to the rim pretty much whenever) because he GOD FORBID shoots two threes a game in 2018? Laughable.

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Just now, royalm said:

 

Because you referred to 3rd year Pascal Siakam as a perimeter player which pretty much means

1. You haven't watched a single Raptors game

2. You're hating to hate

 

Idgaf if he's gonna sustain 60% (I'll happily drop him if the Raps decide he's the odd man out in their bigs rotation) but referring to him as someone who plays on the perimeter (instead of a freak athlete who gets to the rim pretty much whenever) because he GOD FORBID shoots two threes a game in 2018? Laughable.

 

This makes no sense.  You're being a fan.  I don't care about fans.  No one here does.

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Tom Chambers — you’re antagonising a topic with Siakam owners, what did you expect the response was going to be? 

 

They’ve been pretty measured in their replies tbh, but you keep shaking the bee hive, and you know it :rolleyes:

 

You put a ton of effort trying to dispel Siakam and that’s fine, but we’re not trying to hear none of that bad juju bruh :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

This makes no sense.  You're being a fan.  I don't care about fans.  No one here does.

So, what is your prediction about Siakam's FG% this season?  Mine is 60% or higher.   I am really interested in your expert opinion, because I have several trade offers for Siakam (yes, I scooped Pascal in every league I could).

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If it "antagonizes" you to hear a player you have on your team discussed realistically, that's on you.  Someone said "His fg% isn't dropping under 60%".  I pointed out that that's incredibly unrealistic and would in fact be a historical season for someone that shoots as much as he does from where he does.

 

I don't know what to tell you.  Is this the "only good news, Siakam for MVP" thread?  Or is it for discussing the player's fantasy season?

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1 minute ago, Gile Pile said:

So, what is your prediction about Siakam's FG% this season?  Mine is 60% or higher.   I am really interested in your expert opinion, because I have several trade offers for Siakam (yes, I scooped Pascal in every league I could).

52% or so. Still good fg%. Its mainly the points that will drop a lot. He averaged 20 last week. O don't think anyone in here would argue that he will average over 14 ppg. He is gonna be a nice top 75 player it seems, with some bigger game upside. I was only even in here to begin with because gile pile said that he will finish better than bledsoe which I still think is crazy

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6 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

So, what is your prediction about Siakam's FG% this season?  Mine is 60% or higher.   I am really interested in your expert opinion, because I have several trade offers for Siakam (yes, I scooped Pascal in every league I could).

High of 56% at the very most.  Low of 52%.  So 54% is most likely in my book.

 

EDIT: Of course, if he stops shooting threes, it could go higher.  I'm assuming he still takes 1.5- 2 a game.  And of course assuming he continues to take around 8 shots a game.

Edited by Tom Chambers

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