KingJoffrey

Does the Draft really even matter anymore?

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Let me give you a couple of real examples in leagues that I had joined this year.

 

The first league, there was a guy who finished with $66 left in a $260 auction draft.  66 ! that was enough to buy a Trout, betts, Jram, Scherzer.  or 2 pretty good 30ish dollar players.

 

We joked that he gets to put it into a money market instrument over the winter and add 80.00 into next year's draft:)

 

He picked up Carpenter who got dumped, drafted Acuna for $11 (Bragged it was the bargain of the league..not exactly but somewhat right), got Whit Merrifield.  He also scooped up Max Muncy because he was hot and his other OF was slumping.

 

Finished 3rd place.  

 

In another league, it was a draft.  Player took kershaw in the first round, Gary Sanchez in the second and Josh Donaldson in the third.  What a stupid drafter!  But he also drafted Carrasco, Snell, picked up Z Wheeler and Walker Buehler.  Completely dominated pitching. Drafted Story and Suarez.  Ended up winning the league.  (I say stupid drafter, playfully..it was...me!)

 

I remember when Fantasy baseball had a lot to do with a good balanced draft.  It used to be considered to be a sign of inexperience, when you drop a veteran player and sit on a couple of rookies hoping they made it big.  Or maybe some undrafted guy in the middle of a breakthrough season.  But nowadays it seems essential to winning.  A good draft can work against you, having players that are simply to good to drop in a redraft.  Meanwhile, someone else has grabbed a few hot WW pickups who not only become productive, but are fantasy MVP candidates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I played in 7 leagues last year, Matt Carpenter was a free agent in none at any point. Play in deeper leagues if you want the draft to matter more.

 

if you play in shallow leagues you’re going to need to swing for upside with your bottom picks. Trying to get value guys who you hold onto prevent you from picking up difference maker free agents like Muncy.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I played in 7 leagues last year, Matt Carpenter was a free agent in none at any point. Play in deeper leagues if you want the draft to matter more.

 

if you play in shallow leagues you’re going to need to swing for upside with your bottom picks. Trying to get value guys who you hold onto prevent you from picking up difference maker free agents like Muncy.

 

This above as well as also playing in deeper dynasties where if you wanted to draft Acuna you have had to have done it 2 years earlier.

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In a redraft, yes.

 

Keeper leagues, not really anymore. As long as you have your core nucleus, other parts should be interchangeable. 

 

Baseball is such a long sport, so many changes happen during the season and its almost impossible to keep even 50% of your drafted guys by the end of the season.

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13 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I played in 7 leagues last year, Matt Carpenter was a free agent in none at any point. Play in deeper leagues if you want the draft to matter more.

 

if you play in shallow leagues you’re going to need to swing for upside with your bottom picks. Trying to get value guys who you hold onto prevent you from picking up difference maker free agents like Muncy.

This is the best advice.

In shallow leagues, the boom is needed and can be had relatively easy without any thought in the draft. 

In deeper leagues, there's less boom to go around so you have to acquire the boom in the draft. 

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Just now, CrypTviLL said:

This is the best advice.

In shallow leagues, the boom is needed and can be had relatively easy without any thought in the draft. 

In deeper leagues, there's less boom to go around so you have to acquire the boom in the draft. 

 

It's honestly why I like deeper leagues in general in every sport. I run a football league and one guy complains every year theres nothing on the WW, I say prepare better for the draft. Kamara was a league winner for a lot of people last year, he certainly wasn't a pickup in my league. 

 

Also I really want to emphasize the last part more.  When I use to play in fantasy leagues earlier, I would scrutinize every pick so my roster was maxed out and I would be attached to my last round pick because I had great reasons for drafting him.  You just need to be a lot less patient or caring about late round picks.  Another reason why I like auctions, just spend $ on the best guys or people you really want and have like 5-7 $1 guys who can be replaced at any moment. 

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10 Team ESPN standard settings keep 4

 

Won both the regular season (128-72-10) and the Championship. 

 

Of the 19 players I drafted only three made it through the season and 2of 4 keepers lasted. Went from a punt wins/k during the regular season to in the playoffs streaming pitchers while dropping both Kimbrel/Chapman.

 

Best advice is to be fluid and don't get attached to players. Streaming can also work with position players

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14 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I played in 7 leagues last year, Matt Carpenter was a free agent in none at any point. Play in deeper leagues if you want the draft to matter more.

 

if you play in shallow leagues you’re going to need to swing for upside with your bottom picks. Trying to get value guys who you hold onto prevent you from picking up difference maker free agents like Muncy.

Carpenter was kept in our league, but was waived in early May - he was not picked up for almost a month, but lets also look back at the start of the year:  Through April Matt Carpenter was batting .155 with 2HR - can you really blame anyone for dropping?  he was waived for Mac Williamson - remember his hot little stretch there.  

 

 

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15 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Let me give you a couple of real examples in leagues that I had joined this year.

 

The first league, there was a guy who finished with $66 left in a $260 auction draft.  66 ! that was enough to buy a Trout, betts, Jram, Scherzer.  or 2 pretty good 30ish dollar players.

 

We joked that he gets to put it into a money market instrument over the winter and add 80.00 into next year's draft:)

 

He picked up Carpenter who got dumped, drafted Acuna for $11 (Bragged it was the bargain of the league..not exactly but somewhat right), got Whit Merrifield.  He also scooped up Max Muncy because he was hot and his other OF was slumping.

 

Finished 3rd place.  

 

In another league, it was a draft.  Player took kershaw in the first round, Gary Sanchez in the second and Josh Donaldson in the third.  What a stupid drafter!  But he also drafted Carrasco, Snell, picked up Z Wheeler and Walker Buehler.  Completely dominated pitching. Drafted Story and Suarez.  Ended up winning the league.  (I say stupid drafter, playfully..it was...me!)

 

I remember when Fantasy baseball had a lot to do with a good balanced draft.  It used to be considered to be a sign of inexperience, when you drop a veteran player and sit on a couple of rookies hoping they made it big.  Or maybe some undrafted guy in the middle of a breakthrough season.  But nowadays it seems essential to winning.  A good draft can work against you, having players that are simply to good to drop in a redraft.  Meanwhile, someone else has grabbed a few hot WW pickups who not only become productive, but are fantasy MVP candidates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drafts do matter but to what degree has a lot to do with number of teams, settings roster and lineup depth, etc.  

 

I have had way too many seasons where dead spots coming out of the auction/draft turn into problematic spots that you end up chasing replacements and stats, and you end up a week behind on them.  Every season guys you think will be great end up stinking, guys who youve barely heard of end up putting up MVP type numbers.  There is a Muncy or a Carpenter type every season and if you happen to fall into it, great...but in a traditional 23 active spot roto league, falling into 1 or 2 lucky spots is not the same as you see in football, where often times you can point to a key player or two that really will win someone a league.  

 

The other thing with those guys is that there is a lot of timing that goes into those pickups, you have to be out early a bit AND that might mean giving up decent players to take a shot in the dark?   I absolutely agree that you need to manage your team well during the season, and this is rarely the Ronco Rotisserie grill where you can just "set it and forget it" model, but more times than not when I look at the draft results and think "this team stinks" they usually do. 

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On 10/12/2018 at 1:42 PM, parrothead said:

Drafts do matter but to what degree has a lot to do with number of teams, settings roster and lineup depth, etc.  

 

I have had way too many seasons where dead spots coming out of the auction/draft turn into problematic spots that you end up chasing replacements and stats, and you end up a week behind on them.  Every season guys you think will be great end up stinking, guys who youve barely heard of end up putting up MVP type numbers.  There is a Muncy or a Carpenter type every season and if you happen to fall into it, great...but in a traditional 23 active spot roto league, falling into 1 or 2 lucky spots is not the same as you see in football, where often times you can point to a key player or two that really will win someone a league.  

 

The other thing with those guys is that there is a lot of timing that goes into those pickups, you have to be out early a bit AND that might mean giving up decent players to take a shot in the dark?   I absolutely agree that you need to manage your team well during the season, and this is rarely the Ronco Rotisserie grill where you can just "set it and forget it" model, but more times than not when I look at the draft results and think "this team stinks" they usually do. 

I think it's really important to winning consistently or placing in the money.  Winning year after year on WW hits is tough but WW claims can be a skill as well.

Being able to put together a team that flows together or that has some logic to the reasoning is key as well. Just having a jumble of guys without any direction is not ideal 

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70% draft, 30% waiver wire, trades, lineup setting, etc. would be my rough estimate. That of course varies depending on league settings. A league with a restriction on number of transactions, no trading, and a strict waiver wire rule would place an even higher priority on the draft vs a league with unlimited transactions and first come first serve waivers.

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The draft only matters if you screw it up. Just pick safe guys in the first 3 rounds and you got a shot to win the league. 

 

If you pick Baez 1st round, a pitcher 2nd round and Mondesi 3rd round, you will lose your league quickly. 

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11 hours ago, dod959 said:

The draft only matters if you screw it up. Just pick safe guys in the first 3 rounds and you got a shot to win the league. 

 

If you pick Baez 1st round, a pitcher 2nd round and Mondesi 3rd round, you will lose your league quickly. 

Mondesi has a pretty good 5X5 floor with the SBs, being a plus defensive SS. There will be a ton young  guys with better bats that will get benched or demoted to the minors durning a slump while he will stick and steal bags.

 

The problem with the 3rd round is the massive opportunity cost.  6th round seems like the right spot for him. Area where return on investment is already spotty. So shoot for upside. 

 

Basically a baseball draft is drafting a hanful of foundation players then its all about drafting your guys the rest of way. In 10-12 leagues at least

Edited by Slatykamora

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11 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Mondesi has a pretty good 5X5 floor with the SBs, being a plus defensive SS. There will be a ton young  guys with better bats that will get benched or demoted to the minors durning a slump while he will stick and steal bags.

 

The problem with the 3rd round is the massive opportunity cost.  6th round seems like the right spot for him. Area where return on investment is already spotty. So shoot for upside. 

 

Basically a baseball draft is drafting a hanful of foundation players then its all about drafting your guys the rest of way. In 10-12 leagues at least

Plus he is playing for situation where he will have a lot of leeway in terms of low production not costing him his job.  

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Rarely are leagues won in the draft. It's a long season.

 

Definitely need to draft decently (You can't have 15 holes to start and expect to win) but it's what you do during the season that'll make the difference.

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On 10/11/2018 at 8:12 PM, KingJoffrey said:

Let me give you a couple of real examples in leagues that I had joined this year.

 

The first league, there was a guy who finished with $66 left in a $260 auction draft.  66 ! that was enough to buy a Trout, betts, Jram, Scherzer.  or 2 pretty good 30ish dollar players.

 

We joked that he gets to put it into a money market instrument over the winter and add 80.00 into next year's draft:)

 

He picked up Carpenter who got dumped, drafted Acuna for $11 (Bragged it was the bargain of the league..not exactly but somewhat right), got Whit Merrifield.  He also scooped up Max Muncy because he was hot and his other OF was slumping.

 

Finished 3rd place.  

 

In another league, it was a draft.  Player took kershaw in the first round, Gary Sanchez in the second and Josh Donaldson in the third.  What a stupid drafter!  But he also drafted Carrasco, Snell, picked up Z Wheeler and Walker Buehler.  Completely dominated pitching. Drafted Story and Suarez.  Ended up winning the league.  (I say stupid drafter, playfully..it was...me!)

 

I remember when Fantasy baseball had a lot to do with a good balanced draft.  It used to be considered to be a sign of inexperience, when you drop a veteran player and sit on a couple of rookies hoping they made it big.  Or maybe some undrafted guy in the middle of a breakthrough season.  But nowadays it seems essential to winning.  A good draft can work against you, having players that are simply to good to drop in a redraft.  Meanwhile, someone else has grabbed a few hot WW pickups who not only become productive, but are fantasy MVP candidates.

I wonder regularly if I was a better fantasy player when I first started and I would pick up the hot hand like 2003 Estaban Loaiza, not knowing that he wasn't supposed to be good, or now when I might not make an add like that after I look and see and think this is not sustainable and leave him on the wire.  Max Muncy comes to mind this year as a guy I left on the wire in that situation.

 

I still think I'm pretty good at trying to mine for post-hype sleepers, but the earlier version of myself as a fantasy player rode the hot hand a ton more.  Now I'm more apt to check the peripheral numbers and trust my draft on guys that are underperforming.  Sometimes they just never put it together though like Gary Sanchez.  The 2003 version of myself would have cut him early on and not looked back.  Sadly, in one league I held him all year waiting on returns.

 

I think a huge difference now is that through the use of advanced stats, everyone seems to be on the bounceback guys and sleepers a lot more and they don't slip in drafts like they used to.  10-15 years ago, we would write off a guy after a miserable year, not realizing that he increased his BB% and posted a .220 BABIP.  Nowadays, those guys don't slip like they used to. Tommy Pham might be a strange case of fitting that category two years in a row as a sleeper and a guy that will still go earlier in drafts next year than his numbers because his time with the Rays was so good.  15 years ago, he would be going several rounds later, but now players and writers seem much more informed than in the past.

 

I'm a better drafter than I used to be, but I'm not convinced that it has actually made me a better fantasy player, if that makes sense.

 

It also, obviously depends on league size a great deal.  I'm in a 20 teamer with deep rosters and if you don't draft well in there, you are toast.  Where a standard 12 teamer with a deep waiver puts more emphasis on day-to-day play.

Edited by The Czar
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Everyone is more informed. How much information you have is not longer giving you the advatange. Understanding what that information means decephering signficance over noise is key now. How to blend it right with real baseball knowledge and seeing things for yourself.

 

I see a ton of mis-conceptions on advanced stats and over-reliance on numbers/metrics might not be sustainable.

 

You are also right about how the metric defying years happening. I turned a blind eye on Avisal Garcia's 2017 season. Had my chances on the WW to get him. Never even considered touching him. When the reality is he was still probably worth my last bench slot at least. In our efforts to be forward thinking, we ignore what is right in front of us sometimes.

 

I still trust the process

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3 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Definitely need to draft decently (You can't have 15 holes to start and expect to win) but it's what you do during the season that'll make the difference.

 

 

agreed. I play in a limited keeper league -- one team has had Trout/Scherzer/Cole as keepers for years, another has Machado/Lindor/Blackmon.

Neither sniffed the playoffs. 

 

On the other hand, a new manager taking over a horribly-managed team nearly snuck into the playoffs, despite having a considerable keeper disadvantage. He completely outmanaged those other managers in every possible way.

 

As for me, I focused on building a potent offense and punted pitching (aside from Kluber as the horse) and piecemealed together a staff throughout the season. I don't endorse this strategy in Roto... but in H2H, by the time playoffs rolled around, my rotation/pen was above-average. In fact, it was the ERA+WHIP cats that ultimately decided the championship matchup. 

 

To respond to Joffrey... yeah, the draft matters. Just ask people who got discounted Gerrit Cole's and 14th round Blake Snell's. But unlike fantasy football, in-season management is paramount. In baseball, there are enough Muncy-type breakouts that you can survive a total bust of a 2nd or 3rd round pick. In football, if your Leonard Fournette goes down, you better hope to h*** you snagged a James Connor late... or you're pretty much screwed. 

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Great discussion and posts guys...

to Czar - I agree on the analytics, things like BABIP, or even some of the FB/HR ratios for guys with great years that might not be sustainable, I think that discussion and dialogure is pretty well out there for enough owners that there almost becomes a narrative, I would disagree a little just about overall post-hype, if a guy stunk, like many great players did when they came up the first time I think sometimes owners are quick to discount those players, largely because in baseball there are 23 active spots in a roto league that matter where as in football, where its pretty much a RB-WR driven strategy, the down year matters a lot less, there is always some new narrative.  I think Luis Castillo will be an interesting case study this year, disappointed a lot of owners last year, but he did have a decent run of it after a horrific start.  Someone like Correa, Bryant or Sanchez have way to much pedigree and some past performance that nobody is gonna really give up on them.  

 

ChicksDig, for sure the draft matters- I have seen (like example you gave) plenty of owners with great keepers screw the pooch in the auction the next year and turn contention into rebuild really quick.  You call a** backwards into one WR or RB in football and its a season changer, one Max Muncy in baseball is not a season maker. 

 

Sounds like both of you might play in deeper and maybe keeper leagues, one thing that I think publications have also gotten right and with the info out there it translates is just the prospect rankings are really well known.  I honestly cant remember the last time a young going to be rookie stud that year has been available for our auction, because we have a minor league system (only 3 picks) teams are pretty well on it.   

 

 

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Ok just doing some rough numbers look at 2018:

 

The following players were projected outside of the top 50, but wound up within the top 50, some comfortably so:

 

Baez,Story,K Davis, Merrifield,Gennett,Carpenter, Haniger,Suarez,Aguilar, Andujar,Brantley,Castellanos. That's almost 25% of this year's top 50.  If you allow me a bit of leeway. Peralta, Gregorius, albies, rosario. That's nearly 30% of the top 60.

 

On the flip side, look at all the disappointments, projected top 50 players that missed:

 

Altuve,Bryant, Correa,Votto, Rizzo, Judge,Sanchez,Springer,Bellinger,Abreu Donaldson Seager,Dozier,Gordon,EE,Upton Hoskins, Ozuna.  That's 18 out of 50, nearly 40%! If oyu extend a little further, you got Buxton, Miggy, Cano and Contreras!

 

Some of this is injury related, but still.  Only 18 Players in the projected top 50, stayed in the top 50!

 

I was hoping someone more statistically keen could calculate the standard deviation of proj vs actual from the last 5 years and I'd bet it's gone up.

 

 

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13 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Ok just doing some rough numbers look at 2018:

 

The following players were projected outside of the top 50, but wound up within the top 50, some comfortably so:

 

Baez,Story,K Davis, Merrifield,Gennett,Carpenter, Haniger,Suarez,Aguilar, Andujar,Brantley,Castellanos. That's almost 25% of this year's top 50.  If you allow me a bit of leeway. Peralta, Gregorius, albies, rosario. That's nearly 30% of the top 60.

 

On the flip side, look at all the disappointments, projected top 50 players that missed:

 

Altuve,Bryant, Correa,Votto, Rizzo, Judge,Sanchez,Springer,Bellinger,Abreu Donaldson Seager,Dozier,Gordon,EE,Upton Hoskins, Ozuna.  That's 18 out of 50, nearly 40%! If oyu extend a little further, you got Buxton, Miggy, Cano and Contreras!

 

Some of this is injury related, but still.  Only 18 Players in the projected top 50, stayed in the top 50!

 

I was hoping someone more statistically keen could calculate the standard deviation of proj vs actual from the last 5 years and I'd bet it's gone up.

 

 

This breakdown kind of reminds me of the book Fantasyland by Sam Walker.  A must read for fantasy junkies like us.

 

One of the conclusions that he came to that always stuck with me is that hitters are far more likely to hit their projections than pitchers, which is why you always hear the drums beat on never drafting a pitcher in the first round.  I'm going off memory here, but I think he used stats to show that hitter projections fell close 75% of the time, while pitchers were only at like 60%.

 

Based on that knowledge, he developed the LIMA Plan (low investment mound aces, named after Jose Lima who was great that year) and spent most of his budget on hitters and very little on pitching, yet came out very well on the pitching side of things.

 

People are always trying to zig while others zag, so I have watched pitchers creep up in drafts in fantasy circles in recent years, but they will always be more injury prone and more volatile and I've tried to resist that urge.

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39 minutes ago, The Czar said:

This breakdown kind of reminds me of the book Fantasyland by Sam Walker.  A must read for fantasy junkies like us.

 

One of the conclusions that he came to that always stuck with me is that hitters are far more likely to hit their projections than pitchers, which is why you always hear the drums beat on never drafting a pitcher in the first round.  I'm going off memory here, but I think he used stats to show that hitter projections fell close 75% of the time, while pitchers were only at like 60%.

 

Based on that knowledge, he developed the LIMA Plan (low investment mound aces, named after Jose Lima who was great that year) and spent most of his budget on hitters and very little on pitching, yet came out very well on the pitching side of things.

 

People are always trying to zig while others zag, so I have watched pitchers creep up in drafts in fantasy circles in recent years, but they will always be more injury prone and more volatile and I've tried to resist that urge.

For mid- round on ADP, pitchers have high injury and perfomance risk. While the high ADP pitchers are mostly just Injury and occasionally performance(which is usually because of an injury)

 

None of Kershaw, Strasburg, Thor, Sale had some major dip in performance on a per-game basis. Once you got into the Darvish/Ray/Archer range. It became a crapshoot. This is where it's all about replacement level. 10-12 leagues have a higher empahsis on per-game efficiency. A hitter that stayed healthy but did  not performance above replacement hurts the same as a pitcher getting TJ in April. Deeper leagues put more value on attrition.  In my deep leagues, i'm rarley investing big on pitching. Too risky. Still too risky to take pitcher round 1...but getting that ace early round 2 has a lot steam and for good reason in 10-12 teamers.

 

Walkers work is 100% on point...but the ROI on pitchers after the first few round goes from decent to god awful real quick.  So yeah. You either take a gamble on an ace. Or just take a team full of fliers. Taking mid-level SP feels like the fools game right now.

 

People tend to be over-y risk adverse. The statement "fortune favors the bold" is true for a reason. Most fantasy players tip the risk scale too much vs the reward scale.

 

This is game of odds, not certainties. So you have the balance the scales.

Edited by Slatykamora

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I joined 5 high stakes daily fantasy leagues this off season, where every single owner is probably a rotoworld/fangraphs/sabermetric junkie who stay attentive to the league from day 1 on.

 

In those 5 leagues i've seen every strategy result in top placement (all 12 team mix roto standard leagues). 

 

  • In one league, the winner had the least amount of total transactions but he hit on almost every one of his draft picks and from the first month on he was up 10+ points up in the standings and never lost his lead. He drafted using standard strategy (e.g. more capital on hitters, and taking pitchers later). In this guys case the draft mattered a lot.
  •  
  • In another league, the league winner had a core of 5-10 star players .. and then used the waiver wire/free agent pool everyday to pick up hot bats and play the match ups. This guy used a stars and scrubs strategy.
  •  
  • In another league, the winner used his first 10 or so picks on all closers/starting pitchers and punted stolen bases and plugged his line up in with waiver wire hitters mostly and won.

 

 I guess my point here is that there are many different ways to skin a cat .. and there are people with a wide variety of skill-sets, strategy, and philosophies that if executed correctly can win. It's what makes fantasy baseball so great.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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3 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

I joined 5 high stakes daily fantasy leagues this off season, where every single owner is probably a rotoworld/fangraphs/sabermetric junkie who stay attentive to the league from day 1 on.

 

In those 5 leagues i've seen every strategy result in top placement (all 12 team mix roto standard leagues). 

 

  • In one league, the winner had the least amount of total transactions but he hit on almost every one of his draft picks and from the first month on he was up 10+ points up in the standings and never lost his lead. He drafted using standard strategy (e.g. more capital on hitters, and taking pitchers later). In this guys case the draft mattered a lot.
  •  
  • In another league, the league winner had a core of 5-10 star players .. and then used the waiver wire/free agent pool everyday to pick up hot bats and play the match ups. This guy used a stars and scrubs strategy.
  •  
  • In another league, the winner used his first 10 or so picks on all closers/starting pitchers and punted stolen bases and plugged his line up in with waiver wire hitters mostly and won.

 

 I guess my point here is that there are many different ways to skin a cat .. and there are people with a wide variety of skill-sets, strategy, and philosophies that if executed correctly can win. It's what makes fantasy baseball so great.

 

Which is one of the great things about baseball is that there are many different ways to approach it - still waiting for that Kicker and Defense strategy at the 1st round turn to result in a "Victory is Mine" post..

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