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frog34

Analyzing trends and patterns of the 2018 fantasy season

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Good read - thanks! B)

...love FF strategy talks.

All 3 of my teams are doing well this season, so one of my strategies going forward is to keep as much talent away from my opponents as possible (meaning keeping guys like R. Freeman and A. Collins on my roster (and bench) because they are still better (with future upside) than what many other teams in the leagues have at their disposal after their RB1.

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Totally agree on WR being more valuable, seems like there are a lot more yards through the air than on he ground. I drafted way too many RB and now I’m trying to ship them off for WR talent. The running back committees are out of hand - Denver, Atlanta, Green Bay, San Fran, Cleveland, Philly, Miami, NYJ, Baltimore, Tennessee, Houston, Seattle, Chicago, Detroit, all have bad RB situations happening, some worse than others. I’d much rather go for WR upside right now.

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My league employs only 1 mandatory RB starter because of this shift in the offenses. I’ve used WR in my flex a couple times & it’s worked out. I still have 5 starting RB’s (although Fournette has made things more difficult). Getting 1 or 2 RB anchors & a solid WR1 is always my plan at the beginning. WR’s are easier to find as the season starts

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Very good post. 

 

Happy I went with only 1 RB in first six rounds. The league is just so full of these 10-15 carry, minimal involvement in the passing game, TD dependent rbs who went in the top 2-4 rounds. Howard, R. Freeman, Collins, Miller, Lynch. The managers who went with other positions in those spots probably have better squads. 

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I hate to agree with this WR in flex spot, because I was a firm believer to get to the next level you needed to be strong at RB, and 99 times out of 100, use that RB in the flex, it is looking like I was dead wrong especially going forward. My WR bunch has crap the big load turning what I thought was a successful draft into me scrambling to find a decent WR. 

 

Gurley, Conner, Barkley, Zeke & Gordon are the ones and the rest blah 

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Nice to read so many confirmations of my conclusion. You can obviously recognize the recent trend just by watching games, but it gets lost a bit when you focus on your team or your fantasy players. When you take a closer look at the pure numbers, you have distinct statistical evidence over a telling period of 6 weeks. Or just by scrolling through the RB threads in here, where coaches are flamed for not giving their guy enough touches... :ph34r:

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As some has stated above no bigger negative trend this season than the production coming from the RB position.

 

In no particular order here are your first five rounds:

1. Miller - under performing (JAG)

2. Collins - under performing (JAG)

3. Drake - Cant beat out Gore (JAG)

4. Ajayi - injured

5. McKinnon - injured

6 Howard - under performing

7. Henry - Straight JAG

8. Cook - under performing / not healthy

9. D. Freeman - under performing / not healthy

10. Burkhead - IR

11. McCoy - under performing

12. Lewis - under performing

13. Hyde - solid but has regressed the past two weeks

14. Fournette - not healthy (week 10?)

15. R. Freeman - 3rd round bust

 

 

 

Edited by nonstopfan
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40 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I hate to agree with this WR in flex spot, because I was a firm believer to get to the next level you needed to be strong at RB, and 99 times out of 100, use that RB in the flex, it is looking like I was dead wrong especially going forward. My WR bunch has crap the big load turning what I thought was a successful draft into me scrambling to find a decent WR. 

 

Gurley, Conner, Barkley, Zeke & Gordon are the ones and the rest blah 

 

I think there’s a few guys that you can add to that list that it appears you can count on for consistent weekly production. DJ, Mixon, Michel, etc.

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3 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

I think there’s a few guys that you can add to that list that it appears you can count on for consistent weekly production. DJ, Mixon, Michel, etc.

 

White, Kamara, LF (given health/he will ball)

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58 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Totally agree on WR being more valuable

 

Isn't the opposite true?  If you are forced to use 2 to 3 slots of your 9 person roster on RBs...based on the amount of high quality backs, doesn't the high demand and low supply drive the value higher?  An economist would agree with me. 

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I'm running out Barkley and Mixon at RB and Michel in the flex. Then fill out with Golladay and Boyd at WR. I will likely replace Michel with Fournette if he ever gets healthy. People in my league seem to believe I need a WR when the position is so deep and their WR1s aren't outperforming the WR2s by a large margin. I have Boyd who is basically putting up the same numbers as AJ Green. Golladay is the real #1 in Detroit. People in my league seem to have great interest in getting Barkley or Mixon.

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1 minute ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Isn't the opposite true?  If you are forced to use 2 to 3 slots of your 9 person roster on RBs...based on the amount of high quality backs, doesn't the high demand and low supply drive the value higher?  An economist would agree with me. 

 

RBs are for sure more valuable than WRs this year.

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1 minute ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Isn't the opposite true?  If you are forced to use 2 to 3 slots of your 9 person roster on RBs...based on the amount of high quality backs, doesn't the high demand and low supply drive the value higher?  An economist would agree with me. 

Agree. RB is the most valuable. There are too few fantasy relevant guys that can match the numbers of a Thielen. If you have one they are more valuable than any WR.

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

RBs are for sure more valuable than WRs this year.

 

The original post has some logic but slightly misleading.  Understood the argument, you are better off playing a WR at flex because there is more high scoring WRs than high scoring RBs. 

 

If you are me, you are balling out there with RBs in flex cause I am a RB hog.

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Just now, dudewithabadcat said:

 

The original post has some logic but slightly misleading.  Understood the argument, you are better off playing a WR at flex because there is more high scoring WRs than high scoring RBs. 

 

If you are me, you are balling out there with RBs in flex cause I am a RB hog.

 

Yeah I always try to flex a RB if possible. Higher floor.

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The main trend I've noticed from this fantasy season, is a continuation of a previous trend...

 

The trend is that Amari Cooper stinks (but that he'll still be overdrafted and defended to the death by some people). 

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I assumed this WR strategy on draft day so I went RB/RB/RB while everyone went WR and also picked up Conner before week 1. I hit on Gordon and Conner and missed on Fournette and Howard. If Howard and Fournette would have panned out, I would be the leading scorer in my half ppr league ( I am 2nd down 3 points ) although I am still 6-0. Josh Gordon is my WR1 and I need no other.

 

I also have Marvin Jones who is highly drafted receiver that is droppable now because of Golladay. So even WR are not immune to reduced roles

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38 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

As some has stated above no bigger negative trend this season than the production coming from the RB position.

 

In no particular order here are your first five rounds:

1. Miller - under performing (JAG)

2. Collins - under performing (JAG)

3. Drake - Cant beat out Gore (JAG)

4. Ajayi - injured

5. McKinnon - injured

6 Howard - under performing

7. Henry - Straight JAG

8. Cook - under performing / not healthy

9. D. Freeman - under performing / not healthy

10. Burkhead - IR

11. McCoy - under performing

12. Lewis - under performing

13. Hyde - solid but has regressed the past two weeks

14. Fournette - not healthy (week 10?)

15. R. Freeman - 3rd round bust

 

 

 

I feel like this is the case almost every year. 50% of the rbs taken in the first 3 rounds never pan out for whatever reason. Wrs are much safer in that regard

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On the flipside of this analysis let's say you were late round snake draft pick and went WR/WR.  Let's say you got AB & Michael Thomas.  Would you not be wanting desperately to switch AB for someone like Gordon?

 

Short analysis - go RB first 8 rounds and fill in all these streamable WR's each week.

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3 hours ago, frog34 said:

Every year I like to do this thread when we are close to halfway through the fantasy season. We have enough sample size to analyze recent trends, patterns and talk about roster strategies. Might also be useful for those with a bad record who try to dig themselves out of a hole.

 

Common opinion is that WRs were overvalued last year. But when looking closer, it had a lot to do with both the QB and WR position being hit by bad injury luck. I'd argue that the QB injuries were even more significant, because most backup QBs were pure trash. Therefore RBs solidified their role in fantasy, supported by some outstanding individual RB seasons.

 

This season RBs were overdrafted because of the reasons I've stated above. That's true and there's no way around it. Rules have shifted even more towards protecting the QB and encourage teams to throw the ball early and often. The 3 down bellcow RB has become a rare breed, because all teams without generational RB talent employ a 2 or 3 (or 4) headed RBBC. This trend has been evident for a while and there's no reason to believe the NFL won't try to keep evolving further into an "exciting" passing league. While there are some NFL teams who don't even have one viable fantasy-relevant RB, more than half of the teams have at least 2 fantasy-relevant WRs.

 

Since the sample size we have by now is telling, I looked up the numbers. Gurley is in a tier of his own, so I'm gonna exclude him from my analysis. Congrats to all who had the 1st overall pick!

 

After Gurley there is the elite RB tier lead by Gordon (who is still a decent amount above the rest), followed by Barkley, Conner, Kamara, Hunt and Zeke. From all WRs, only Hill, Thielen and Adams can keep up with them and rank among that tier. But already both the RB10 and the WR10 have scored the same amount of fantasy points. From that point on, the WR position runs away with the lead and never looks back. WR30 has already a 10 point advantage on RB30. Keep in mind that I'm analyzing standard scoring only. The gap in PPR is obviously much bigger and starts to broaden much sooner. After the top 30 at both the RB and the WR position, you basically run out of RBs since there are only so many fantasy-relevant ones, but the list of relevant WRs keeps going on.

 

What are the conclusions out of my amateurish analysis? I have a hot take!

 

Keep flexing WRs over RBs when in doubt, even in standard scoring! At the end of the season, it will pay off. "Solid" RB2s don't post the numbers they used to. This is due to more RBBCs and more emphasis on the passing game. RB2s, who were once valued like low WR1s, can be sold for WR2s if you have some RB depth. This was a huge no-go in the past. Don't be afraid to sell middling RB2s, who are basically TD-or-bust, for guys like Boyd, Ridley or Golladay. It's a clear trend, and at the end of the season the WR side will have scored more fantasy points than their RB counterparts, even in standard scoring rankings.

 

I get the positional scarcity argument, but your goal is to score the most points each and every week. Some players in the WR3 tier are already more dependable than players in the mid-low RB2 tier. This wasn't even the case in PPR until recently, but now this is a valid argument in standard scoring too! There are always excpetions, like if you somehow have three top 20 RBs and aren't deep at WR. But I think with the positional scarcity argument as well as the RB overvaluation still burnt into the minds of fantasy owners, you can increase your amount of fantasy points scored through RB-for-WR trades. To soften the blow to your RB depth, maybe include a lesser RB from your trade partner into the deal. The majority of league champions this season will have a WR in their flex. And Todd Gurley, of course.

If there are so many WRs available why on Earth would you trade an RB2 for a WR2?

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14 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

I feel like this is the case almost every year. 50% of the rbs taken in the first 3 rounds never pan out for whatever reason. Wrs are much safer in that regard

 

But this is not the case...almost every year. 

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8 minutes ago, nosh0t said:

On the flipside of this analysis let's say you were late round snake draft pick and went WR/WR.  Let's say you got AB & Michael Thomas.  Would you not be wanting desperately to switch AB for someone like Gordon?

 

Short analysis - go RB first 8 rounds and fill in all these streamable WR's each week.

 

I'm a firm believer in the idea that roster construction doesn't need to follow specific rules, but I told myself I was absolutely not going to go WR/WR this year in my 12-teamer given that I'd be assured to miss out on a good pick at RB.

 

And then I went AB / Michael Thomas. It was actually WR/WR/RB/WR because after Mixon in the 3rd, there was nobody worth reaching for in the 4th at RB.

 

It meant that I had to fill in my bench with a LOT of RBs that I wasn't sure about. But I grabbed enough of them that I hit on several dart throws, and because I had sufficient depth at WR, was able to trade my 3rd WR [ARob] for Shady in a buy low to fill things out. 

 

I've always been a believer that RB depth is incredibly important across a long season, and that finding waiver wire gems at WR is easier than at RB. But how you get that RB depth isn't as simple as going RB round after round. 

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34 minutes ago, Corleone said:

The main trend I've noticed from this fantasy season, is a continuation of a previous trend...

 

The trend is that Amari Cooper stinks (but that he'll still be overdrafted and defended to the death by some people). 

Yep he stinks

reason he is defended he is Very talented and coach Gruden said he was going to be a vocal point of the offense. He lied ? 

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