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RafiBomb

Nemanja Bjelica 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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I have to agree with @LuSamSiam.  I missed on Bjelica in every league, and I'm in a lot of leagues.  But I just didn't (and still kinda don't) believe he can keep this up, so I didn't make a move on him when everyone else was.  I wouldn't give JV up for him, but Thad?  I have Thad in some leagues and I've never really liked him, so yeah, maybe.

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I'm in 2 deep leagues and made the move in both after game 3 vs OKC. Went with my gut before another GM could pick him up.  It's an opportunity for him to start on a new team and coach slotted him in as his starting PF to begin the season.  With the way the league is being played, a weapon like the 3PT shot Bjelica is using is doing wonders for WCS inside the paint. Not to mention they are winning so that gives nothing but confidence to Bjelica and the coaching staff.  He's not the most athletic big but if you watch the film, he seems to find himself in the right spots at the right time, hence the stocks.  Most of us are veterans when it comes to this fantasy basketball stuff so taking a risk and getting a leg up on other GMs in your league can pay dividends for your fantasy season. 

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1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

I have to agree with @LuSamSiam.  I missed on Bjelica in every league, and I'm in a lot of leagues.  But I just didn't (and still kinda don't) believe he can keep this up, so I didn't make a move on him when everyone else was.  I wouldn't give JV up for him, but Thad?  I have Thad in some leagues and I've never really liked him, so yeah, maybe.

 

 

a lot of people are forgetting that bogdanovic is comin back soon 

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7 minutes ago, COBBLEPOT said:

 

 

a lot of people are forgetting that bogdanovic is comin back soon 

What does that have to do with Bjelica???

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1 minute ago, COBBLEPOT said:

 

he’s going to lose touches 

But Bogdanovic plays SG and that's where Hield is currently tearing it up. Even when Bogdanovic comes back, it doesn't mean he's going to take the most FGA when he's on the floor. Heck, with the way Hield is shooting the ball, Bogdanovic and his post-surgical knee may just come off the bench (barring an injury to a starter SG or SF).

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2 hours ago, COBBLEPOT said:

 

he’s going to lose touches 

Bagley is looming in the shadows as well when they slip in the standings.

Edited by DezedandConfused
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2 hours ago, phatjonny2001 said:

But Bogdanovic plays SG and that's where Hield is currently tearing it up. Even when Bogdanovic comes back, it doesn't mean he's going to take the most FGA when he's on the floor. Heck, with the way Hield is shooting the ball, Bogdanovic and his post-surgical knee may just come off the bench (barring an injury to a starter SG or SF).

 

it's just common sense my man...the more shooters in the rotation, the less shots to go around.

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4 hours ago, COBBLEPOT said:

 

 

a lot of people are forgetting that bogdanovic is comin back soon 

 

The Serbian connection will do wonders? That's what you are implying? Bjelica with top10 value!

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2nd bad game in a row? Or maybe it was because the Kings went again the East contenders Bucks and Raptors?

Edited by dragonballz

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1 minute ago, dragonballz said:

2nd bad game in a row? Or maybe it was because the Kings went again the East contenders Bucks and Raptors?

 

Were you expecting him to maintain top 25 value all year? Probably not. He's not done with, but as with everyone else, expect to see more regression to the mean. For him, that includes more duds like tonight. 

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5 minutes ago, tremixt said:

 

Were you expecting him to maintain top 25 value all year? Probably not. He's not done with, but as with everyone else, expect to see more regression to the mean. For him, that includes more duds like tonight. 

Nowhere in this thread that I mentioned that Bjelica is a top 25 player. He's a waiver wire pick up for me. Id be happy if he delivers top 75 potential ros. Im not sure where you're basing your expectation. 

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7 hours ago, dragonballz said:

Nowhere in this thread that I mentioned that Bjelica is a top 25 player. He's a waiver wire pick up for me. Id be happy if he delivers top 75 potential ros. Im not sure where you're basing your expectation. 

 

I'm responding your post about two bad games. He has a history of bad games, so it shouldn't come as a surprise if he strings 10 bad games in a row.

 

His current production was good enough for top 25. So his current duds are part of his regression to the mean. And that regression to the mean may still result in numbers that are still good enough for top 100/75. 

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2 hours ago, tremixt said:

 

I'm responding your post about two bad games. He has a history of bad games, so it shouldn't come as a surprise if he strings 10 bad games in a row.

 

His current production was good enough for top 25. So his current duds are part of his regression to the mean. And that regression to the mean may still result in numbers that are still good enough for top 100/75. 

but then you have to factor is Bog coming back/taking shots, and Bagley looming...

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I don't think it's time to worry yet. The 2 duds were against the bucks & raptors. Both teams in the top 10 in defensive rating. He should bounce back against the twolves tomorrow. 

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3 hours ago, tremixt said:

 

I'm responding your post about two bad games. He has a history of bad games, so it shouldn't come as a surprise if he strings 10 bad games in a row.

 

His current production was good enough for top 25. So his current duds are part of his regression to the mean. And that regression to the mean may still result in numbers that are still good enough for top 100/75. 

Sorry if this is pedantic, but that's not how regression to the mean works. The term does not mean if something/someone was performing at the good extremes previously, it will encounter bad extremes to bring it back to its mean. 

 

Anyways, the rotoworld blurb points to his past 3 games and limited minutes, but doesn't give any context.

Game 1 vs. hawks was a blowout, still did ok stats given how long he was on the floor.

Game 2 vs. bucks was also a blowout.

Game 3 vs. raps is the only game to me that's slightly concerning, but he's still getting shots and starting. Just seems like his shots weren't falling and coach went with Bagley.

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The past 2 games were against top 5 defensive teams in the Bucks and Raptors.  His match ups were Middleton and Siakam respectively and he obviously was put at a disadvantage, especially against the Raptors.  Now, next game up is against his former team in the Wolves (21st in defensive rating) followed by the Lakers (15th in defensive rating).  I expect a great game from him vs his former team in the Wolves and a decent game vs the Lakers who defensively, are lacking.  Let's see what happens.

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2 minutes ago, phatjonny2001 said:

The past 2 games were against top 5 defensive teams in the Bucks and Raptors.  His match ups were Middleton and Siakam respectively and he obviously was put at a disadvantage, especially against the Raptors.  Now, next game up is against his former team in the Wolves (21st in defensive rating) followed by the Lakers (15th in defensive rating).  I expect a great game from him vs his former team in the Wolves and a decent game vs the Lakers who defensively, are lacking.  Let's see what happens.

 

I hope you are right.  I just traded for him and brogdon (only gave Dwight and Shroder), and last night's game was concerning but can't expect him to perform at a high level every night, especially against Raps and Bucks.  

 

Haven't watched him play much.  Does he attack the rim or is he more of a shooter?

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6 minutes ago, DoctorLove said:

 

I hope you are right.  I just traded for him and brogdon (only gave Dwight and Shroder), and last night's game was concerning but can't expect him to perform at a high level every night, especially against Raps and Bucks.  

 

Haven't watched him play much.  Does he attack the rim or is he more of a shooter?

Definitely a shooter!  If he attacks, it doesn't happen often unless he's put into a match up advantage (smaller player).  He's pretty crafty and sneaky at times when he ends up under the basket for easy layups but his "bread and butter" is the 3PT shot and he can hit from anywhere along the 3PT line.   Surprisingly, he gets stocks for his size and it's not like he's a quick player.  Again, he's crafty and finds himself at the right place and time on the defensive end.  He needs to hit that 3PT shot as it opens up the floor for the rest of his teammates, especially for WCS.  Fox and Hield will find him, he just needs to connect like he did the past 2 weeks.

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Figured I’d peek in here to gauge the status of him. If people are holding or releasing. Thinking the manager in my league might be getting impatient and I can snag. Noticed he’s quieted down some. 

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3 hours ago, SwaggaMcDaddy said:

I don't think it's time to worry yet. The 2 duds were against the bucks & raptors. Both teams in the top 10 in defensive rating. He should bounce back against the twolves tomorrow. 

the first one was in a blowout where he was rested. Jokic took 1 shot last night. bjelica has had 1 bad game in 3 weeks. people need to relax. 

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