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Buy low / Sell high 2018-2019

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3 hours ago, bilotos13 said:

Donovan Mitchell buy-low candidate! He can't be THAT trash! 1.8 Stls are great but the other stats are not good!

 

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Just for reference if anyone wants to buy low on Mitchell.  I was offered TJ Warren & RHJ for my Donovan Mitchell yesterday.  I'm personally holding on to him (it is only November).  I'm still getting value on the 1.8 stls and my team is doing good so far.  Plus taking that deal would leave Jamal Murray as my only point guard (punt AST build).

Edited by gill2k

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12 minutes ago, gill2k said:

 

Just for reference if anyone wants to buy low on Mitchell.  I was offered TJ Warren & RHJ for my Donovan Mitchell yesterday.  I'm personally holding on to him (it is only November).  I'm still getting value on the 1.8 stls and my team is doing good so far.  Plus taking that deal would leave Jamal Murray as my only point guard (punt AST build).

That's a terrible deal anyway. RHJ is not rosterable.

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13 minutes ago, gill2k said:

 

Just for reference if anyone wants to buy low on Mitchell.  I was offered TJ Warren & RHJ for my Donovan Mitchell yesterday.  I'm personally holding on to him (it is only November).  I'm still getting value on the 1.8 stls and my team is doing good so far.  Plus taking that deal would leave Jamal Murray as my only point guard (punt AST build).

I traded him for Simmons in a punt FT build.  Simmons has been meh but Mitchell would have single-handedly destroyed my FG which you can’t really tolerate in punt FT as you can’t punt every cat.  Both have been bad so we’re both selling low I guess ?

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4 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Indeed. True buy low players are the ones the markets are running from.

 

True buy lows emerge after a player has had two bad months, not two bad games. But if a player has been struggling for months ironically the advice you'll see from this board is: stay away.

 

If a player has had two bad months there's a greater chance that there is something structurally wrong with his role or injuries than he is an actual buy low candidate.  

 

Two games is too short. Two months is too long.  

 

I think four-five games is about right. Any longer than that and a good player will put up a good line and the window will snap shut. 

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7 hours ago, bilotos13 said:

Donovan Mitchell buy-low candidate! He can't be THAT trash! 1.8 Stls are great but the other stats are not good!

 

5beff6af97567_2018-11-171_08_21.thumb.png.713bc3e0f78d79749a7d56ec50e618a2.png

Mitchell is tricky because he was overdrafted. His efficiency should improve, but not by much. If you want to buy him treat him as a 3rd round pick (which he should've been).

Edited by tallball
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9 minutes ago, tallball said:

Mitchell is tricky because he was overdrafted. His efficiency should improve, but not by much. If you want to buy him treat him as a 3rd round pick (which he should've been).

 

This. He was drafted at his ceiling, but I say he still has a chance to finish top 30-40 which is still a buy-low considering where he's at right now.  He can definitely improve upon his current numbers.

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2 hours ago, Eltoro said:

 

If a player has had two bad months there's a greater chance that there is something structurally wrong with his role or injuries than he is an actual buy low candidate.  

 

Two games is too short. Two months is too long.  

 

I think four-five games is about right. Any longer than that and a good player will put up a good line and the window will snap shut. 

 

I agree that OPJ is a risky, risky buy low candidate.  He's not a go to scorer, or high usage player.  He's a glue guy for a team that has had past success, but Wizards are very fragile right now.  He isn't a trash player, but his role in the past has really helped his value, and his teammates are constantly expressing disappointment in his game, and personally.

 

 

I've been calling a trade in Washington coming ASAP, and a coaching change.  There are a few teams that would make an offer for him, even with that monster contact because they know they can't sign elite Free Agents like some of the more storied franchises, and big markets.  Look for the Nets, who offered him that big contract in the offseason, forcing Wizards to over pay him, to make an offer.  It could be a good thing to get OPJ out of Washington, and if his destination's front office believes in OPJ enough, they could offer him an expanded role compared to the one he has now.  Too many variables to consider him a buy low over obvious candidates like Wiggins, Conley, and Aldridge.

 

 

 

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Actively have tried to sell high on Luca while buying low on Donovan. The offer was rejected but the other owner reluctantly turned it down and gave it a lot of thought. The actual deal was Luca and Robinson for D. Mitchell. (Owner needed a center badly). 

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23 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

 

I agree that OPJ is a risky, risky buy low candidate.  He's not a go to scorer, or high usage player.  He's a glue guy for a team that has had past success, but Wizards are very fragile right now.  He isn't a trash player, but his role in the past has really helped his value, and his teammates are constantly expressing disappointment in his game, and personally.

 

 

I've been calling a trade in Washington coming ASAP, and a coaching change.  There are a few teams that would make an offer for him, even with that monster contact because they know they can't sign elite Free Agents like some of the more storied franchises, and big markets.  Look for the Nets, who offered him that big contract in the offseason, forcing Wizards to over pay him, to make an offer.  It could be a good thing to get OPJ out of Washington, and if his destination's front office believes in OPJ enough, they could offer him an expanded role compared to the one he has now.  Too many variables to consider him a buy low over obvious candidates like Wiggins, Conley, and Aldridge.

 

 

 

I agree with you in the fact that after two months it becomes more likely to be the norm. I do disagree that Otto is a risky buy low in the simple fact that his value is extremely low to the point that he's touched the waiver wire in some leagues. Considering Otto has top 30 potential like the other buy lows you named I think the potential reward far outweighs the risk. You are right though, his low usage role on the wizards means he is more prone to falling off when compared to a guy like Conley or LA. But Otto current price will also be far lower than either of those guys.

Also, I don't think any team will be interested in Otto. The thought that Brooklyn would use a one of their max player slots on this guy makes no sense to me. Especially considering a guy like Jimmy Butler had BK on his preferred team list about a month ago. People forget the NBA free agency landscape was much different when Otto signed that offer sheet with BK.

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Devin Booker is a ridiculously good Buy Low guy right now.  Especially for a team like many of us who punted TO's.  If you have guys like Giannis, and guards who are high percentage FG's like Kyrie Iriving, Stephen Curry, then Booker should be someone you target heavily, and quickly.

 

The Suns are realizing Booker needs to be the playmaker, high usage, PG this season since nobody else can pass the ball, other than Josh Jackson.  Jackson has zero confidence right now, and could get it back, but Booker's assist totals are going to be sky high in comparison to previous years.  With this role, you can expect league leading TO's, too though, but then another positive is his 3 pointers are way below his skill set offers.  

 

 

He's currently 128 overall, and in large part due to playing 4-5 less games than most of the other players in the league.  He's 68 overall if you go off of AVG stats.  On top of that, his high TO's are knocking his value down at least 20 spots( didn't check actual figures, just off top of my head ).  Those may come down a bit, but who cares?  If you are punting TO's, or playing 8 cat ( no TO's ) then offer a Top 50 guy for Booker, and reap the benefits.  Just don't trade off a young, high usage guy who could get things together this season, and also be a great value like Aaron Gordon, Wiggins, Josh Richardson, D Lo, etc.  I'd offer a veteran with a set role who provides value of 35-50 like Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka, Gary Harris, Al Horford, maybe CJ Mcollum, etc.

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13 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

Devin Booker is a ridiculously good Buy Low guy right now.  Especially for a team like many of us who punted TO's.  If you have guys like Giannis, and guards who are high percentage FG's like Kyrie Iriving, Stephen Curry, then Booker should be someone you target heavily, and quickly.

 

I tried to buy low on Book and got laughed at. By low of not he’s still averaging 24/3/7 on the year.  Only a stupid owner would sell low and justify it by his rank. He’s a monster.  

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5 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

I agree with you in the fact that after two months it becomes more likely to be the norm. I do disagree that Otto is a risky buy low in the simple fact that his value is extremely low to the point that he's touched the waiver wire in some leagues. Considering Otto has top 30 potential like the other buy lows you named I think the potential reward far outweighs the risk. You are right though, his low usage role on the wizards means he is more prone to falling off when compared to a guy like Conley or LA. But Otto current price will also be far lower than either of those guys.

Also, I don't think any team will be interested in Otto. The thought that Brooklyn would use a one of their max player slots on this guy makes no sense to me. Especially considering a guy like Jimmy Butler had BK on his preferred team list about a month ago. People forget the NBA free agency landscape was much different when Otto signed that offer sheet with BK.

 

There's a chance Butler signs with Brooklyn, no doubt.  The NBA landscape changes constantly, and that's def a fact.

 

A month ago we were talking Kyrie AND Jimmy Butler could go to Nets together.  At this moment I see both of these players potentially leading their teams DEEP in the playoffs, possibly 1-2 in the East.  Boston #1 and I don't think it's even close.  I honestly believe Boston is a better team than GSW.  They still haven't gotten going yet and that's a scary thought for the NBA.  They also have assets to make one more roster move to put them over the top.  Danny Ainge is ALWAYS on the phones.

 

Players that are looking to leave a legacy will usually opt to stay with a team that they feel is a contender, though.  If the Sixers make one more deal, like Futlz for Kevin Love, they could be top 5 in the NBA, with Butler getting the majority of credit as the team leader.  That's gonna be tough to walk away from, and changes the landscape from how we see things today, a week ago, a month ago, and even a week/month from now if that trade happens.  Philly just proved they are going all in right now.  They aren't done tweaking things.

 

Boston is in the exact same situation.  Most say GSW are a lock for another championship, but that's if they avoid injuries, and any continued drama over there.  We shouldn't understate the team chemistry issue with Draymond and Durant.  Durant is PETTY and Draymond is obnoxious.  This could play out in a way that ruins the Warriors dynasty. If it doesn't happen this year, then next year that roster changes, almost certainly.  My money is on Durant to Knicks.  Kyrie, and the Celtics know this.  They could take a big risk, trading Rozier and Horford and a pick for an Anthony Davis, or other elite talent to make THEM the favorites ( in everyone else's eyes ).  Every team that's at the top is desperately trying to make that splash soon to give them enough time to gel before the playoffs start.  

 

Back to Otto, he is a buy low, because we can almost guarantee his value increases.  I'm just stating that there are about a dozen other players out there that will make a much bigger jump in value to help us win a fantasy championship.  Booker / Wiggins can be had for much,  much lower than I predict they finish.  It might sound bold, but they could BOTH finish top 20-30 this season. So could Mike Conley.  Otto Porter isn't doing that IMO, regardless of whether he stays in Washington, or gets moved to a better situation. 

 

 

At all times in fantasy, there are min 10 Buy Low guys sitting on frustrated fantasy team owners' rosters.  Through out the season, I slowly move the guys over performing, or having limited upside, for those Buy Low guys and usually end up with a championship, or top 3 team in 14 team league.

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I moved Danny Green ( ranked 20 ), Gallinari ( ranked 23 ), and Ayton ( ranked 25 ) for KAT ( ranked like 47 ) when everyone was calling KAT a pussy.  I risked MIN holding Butler out of spite, or desperation, but my gamble paid off.  I've heard a few people on here say that this league is trash, or the trade partner sucks, but at that moment, the fantasy world was going bonkers over Ayton, and believed Danny Green could revert back to 2013-14 days, and better with Raptors really fast pace meaning more offensive possessions for Kawhi's sidekick.  If Gallinari stays healthy, that's a big asset too for my trade partner.

 

He had Jokic / Butler / KAT / Chris Paul, a team full of monster stat guys, but needed to round out his roster. 

 

Anyway, let's focus on the Buy Low guys who we can take to the bank that they'll outplay their current value in a hurry.  There's a good chunk of them out there, and we can send trade offers daily to try to pry them lose from possibly frustrated, inexperienced, or biased / fanboy owners.

Edited by HulkSmash
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4 minutes ago, socal.trades714@yahoo.com said:

 

I agree with Draymond Green.  His value can't be much lower.

 

I say this as a Draymond Green owner. I would love to move him.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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1 hour ago, HulkSmash said:

 

There's a chance Butler signs with Brooklyn, no doubt.  The NBA landscape changes constantly, and that's def a fact.

 

A month ago we were talking Kyrie AND Jimmy Butler could go to Nets together.  At this moment I see both of these players potentially leading their teams DEEP in the playoffs, possibly 1-2 in the East.  Boston #1 and I don't think it's even close.  I honestly believe Boston is a better team than GSW.  They still haven't gotten going yet and that's a scary thought for the NBA.  They also have assets to make one more roster move to put them over the top.  Danny Ainge is ALWAYS on the phones.

 

Players that are looking to leave a legacy will usually opt to stay with a team that they feel is a contender, though.  If the Sixers make one more deal, like Futlz for Kevin Love, they could be top 5 in the NBA, with Butler getting the majority of credit as the team leader.  That's gonna be tough to walk away from, and changes the landscape from how we see things today, a week ago, a month ago, and even a week/month from now if that trade happens.  Philly just proved they are going all in right now.  They aren't done tweaking things.

 

Boston is in the exact same situation.  Most say GSW are a lock for another championship, but that's if they avoid injuries, and any continued drama over there.  We shouldn't understate the team chemistry issue with Draymond and Durant.  Durant is PETTY and Draymond is obnoxious.  This could play out in a way that ruins the Warriors dynasty. If it doesn't happen this year, then next year that roster changes, almost certainly.  My money is on Durant to Knicks.  Kyrie, and the Celtics know this.  They could take a big risk, trading Rozier and Horford and a pick for an Anthony Davis, or other elite talent to make THEM the favorites ( in everyone else's eyes ).  Every team that's at the top is desperately trying to make that splash soon to give them enough time to gel before the playoffs start.  

 

Back to Otto, he is a buy low, because we can almost guarantee his value increases.  I'm just stating that there are about a dozen other players out there that will make a much bigger jump in value to help us win a fantasy championship.  Booker / Wiggins can be had for much,  much lower than I predict they finish.  It might sound bold, but they could BOTH finish top 20-30 this season. So could Mike Conley.  Otto Porter isn't doing that IMO, regardless of whether he stays in Washington, or gets moved to a better situation. 

 

 

At all times in fantasy, there are min 10 Buy Low guys sitting on frustrated fantasy team owners' rosters.  Through out the season, I slowly move the guys over performing, or having limited upside, for those Buy Low guys and usually end up with a championship, or top 3 team in 14 team league.

Getting a guy like otto for dirt cheap could be a championship winner aswell. I’d put my money on otto finishing top 30 before I put it on Booker or Wiggins, especially Wiggins. Obviously this changes based on league settings/team build but if were talking absolute 9 cat value im betting on Otto. Guys like Wiggins and Booker are cooler players to own. Booker’s fantasy game is not friendly and theres a reason why he was only ranked 50th last year despite averaging 25/5/5. 

 

My entire argument was based on the fact that you can get Otto for next to nothing. Booker and Wiggins will command a much higher price tag as buy lows because they bring the sexy counting stats. As bad as Otto has been hes currently ranked 6 spots ahead of Booker.. Now if we compare their perceived trade value its easy to see why Otto carries more potential reward than risk.

 

I know some people would disagree with the rankings and believe Bookers 25/5/5 was more valuable than Ottos numbers last year and thats fine. But at that point its hard to have a discussion. (Not specifically referring to you @Hulksmash)

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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1 hour ago, chud12 said:

 

I tried to buy low on Book and got laughed at. By low of not he’s still averaging 24/3/7 on the year.  Only a stupid owner would sell low and justify it by his rank. He’s a monster.  

Yup. You draft Booker knowing about his to's and fg% (unless you're just flat out new to fantasy). The guy's a stud and I really don't see him as a buy low. 

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Who can I sell high D'Angelo for? I need someone similar but more efficient. I tried Brogdon, owner didn't bite.

Edited by MysticPeak

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46 minutes ago, MysticPeak said:

Who can I sell high D'Angelo for? I need someone similar but more efficient. I tried Brogdon, owner didn't bite.

 

This confuses me so much

 

Why the hell would you sell high on DLo for Brogdon of all people, and why did the Brogdon owner decline that? I’d be biting your hand off and running for the hills if someone offered me DLo for a borderline rosterable 12 team guy

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37 minutes ago, Boogie Buckets said:

 

This confuses me so much

 

Why the hell would you sell high on DLo for Brogdon of all people, and why did the Brogdon owner decline that? I’d be biting your hand off and running for the hills if someone offered me DLo for a borderline rosterable 12 team guy

My team's situation & need more good %'s. Playing Roto. In Roto, D'Lo can't be trusted. Thanks.

Edited by MysticPeak

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1 hour ago, MysticPeak said:

Who can I sell high D'Angelo for? I need someone similar but more efficient. I tried Brogdon, owner didn't bite.

I like the idea of sell high but seriously not for Brogdon. Maybe try for someone who is slumping and reverts back to norm will be good.

 

That Brogdon owner is an idiot for not taking that deal to be honest.

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