brockpapersizer

Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

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Overall a fantastic list. I have a lot of guys on this list because I read your work and respect your analysis a ton. In terms of fantasy prospect analysis, Garlando is as good as they come and won't shy away from explaining his thought process. 

 

I kinda think Austin Hays shouldn't be ranked. I'm kinda writing him off. I'd take a chance on someone with more upside who walks.

 

I was surprised not to see phillies Luis Garcia not make the list

 

If we're going to keep Alex Reyes on lists, I think he should probably be higher. I feel very good about him being a very good major league pitcher outside of injuries.

 

I don't really like ranking guys who have been in the majors on lists, but I understand its an imperfect way to rank regardless of which method for list eligibility you use. That being said, I'd probably say Willians Astudillo should be amongst the top 150 prospects. He's catcher elligible and had a 379 WOBA in almost 100 PA last year. Yan Gomes was like the 7th best catcher last year with a 326 WOBA. Catcher is poop right now. Willians Astudillo was the 30th best catcher last year having only played about 1/5 the season, If he starts, I think I would project him as a 15 HR guy with at least a 270 average (Would have been good for catcher 6 or 7 last year). Very valuable in 2 catcher leagues, and possibly replacement or better in 10-12 1 catcher leagues.

 

I feel like Kebryan Hayes should probably be a top 100 guy. I think the power is coming and the plate skills look great so far.

 

From your just missed list I like Ronnie Maurico and Jose Suarez as guys Id bump up on upside.

 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Montero is ranked ahead of Beer. Just sayin, not many things in life rank ahead of Beer. #stud

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11 hours ago, garlando said:

Thanks, @brockpapersizer for sharing the list, I appreciate it! I was the one that wrote the article, so if you guys have any questions or comments on any of the rankings I'd be happy to answer! :)

 

I've read and enjoyed your Rotoworld forum postings when ever I've see them. At the same time I've loved pitcherlist, both the previous day's starters and previous day's hitters. They are morning must reads.

I had no idea the two of you are one and the same.

 

For those of you who are unaware of pitcherlist, by all means check it out. Adam puts out a daily quality product.

 

Thank you Adam for sharing your work.

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@garlando

A few things I noticed that I’d love your feedback on:

 

Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are sliding, what are your thoughts on those two players?

 

Garret Hampson - Likelihood of an instant roster spot give him a boost ala Kingery?

 

Not buying the Brendan Rodgers sliding trend?

 

What is keeping Chris Paddack from being the top pitching prospect in baseball?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Overall it is a really good list.  The only one I see with a big discrepancy from the norm would be Joey Bart.  I'm really surprised to see how big of a difference in value where you have him ranked.  There are a couple of other nitpicking ones but the +/- in spots there really don't make that much of a difference.

 

Good job.

 

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@garlando really appreciate your efforts on the RW Forum and thanks for the opportunity to provide feedback and ask questions.  Just some insight from you, from a strictly fantasy standpoint.  We know that outside of pitchers that catchers seem to be the most risky in terms of their ability to stick and then produce meaningful fantasy stats.  Right now, I own both Keibert Ruiz and Ronaldo Hernandez.  Hernandez seems to have the better power, whereas Ruiz the better contact and seemingly less power.  Ruiz has also performed reasonably well at a higher level, especially given his age.  If you could only keep one, 5x5 fantasy league (so no OBP/SLG, etc.), which one would you go with and what is/are the separating factor(s)?  Thanks in advance.

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First off, sorry for the delay on the responses! Dealt with a combination of the flu and other deadlines to meet the last few days but I have the time now and I'll get to each question. Feel free for anyone to ask any further questions or share their comments if they have any!
 

On 10/23/2018 at 8:59 AM, brockpapersizer said:

Overall a fantastic list. I have a lot of guys on this list because I read your work and respect your analysis a ton. In terms of fantasy prospect analysis, Garlando is as good as they come and won't shy away from explaining his thought process. 

 

I kinda think Austin Hays shouldn't be ranked. I'm kinda writing him off. I'd take a chance on someone with more upside who walks.

 

I was surprised not to see phillies Luis Garcia not make the list

 

If we're going to keep Alex Reyes on lists, I think he should probably be higher. I feel very good about him being a very good major league pitcher outside of injuries.

 

I don't really like ranking guys who have been in the majors on lists, but I understand its an imperfect way to rank regardless of which method for list eligibility you use. That being said, I'd probably say Willians Astudillo should be amongst the top 150 prospects. He's catcher elligible and had a 379 WOBA in almost 100 PA last year. Yan Gomes was like the 7th best catcher last year with a 326 WOBA. Catcher is poop right now. Willians Astudillo was the 30th best catcher last year having only played about 1/5 the season, If he starts, I think I would project him as a 15 HR guy with at least a 270 average (Would have been good for catcher 6 or 7 last year). Very valuable in 2 catcher leagues, and possibly replacement or better in 10-12 1 catcher leagues.

 

I feel like Kebryan Hayes should probably be a top 100 guy. I think the power is coming and the plate skills look great so far.

 

From your just missed list I like Ronnie Maurico and Jose Suarez as guys Id bump up on upside.

 

5

 

 


I appreciate the kind words Brock, thank you! We often discuss prospects and I respect your analysis and viewpoints too and I love that we often are able to find common ground!

 - Interesting to hear your thoughts on Austin Hays! He had such a great run at A+ and AA in 2017, but since his late-season promotion to the majors that year, he hasn't looked the same. I'm not ready to completely write him off yet despite his struggles in 2018 and the holes in his game that include his almost complete lack of patience. He's still got plus raw power, and his aggressiveness at the plate lowers his strikeout risk. It's sort of the Eddie Rosario-lite sort of profile if it clicks and he showed some signs of finding himself again late in the year. Post-all-star break at AA last year, he hit .273/.291/.535 which admittedly is a small sample size of 23 games, but it's something. If he continues to struggle, he'll fall off the list. In your Ottoneu scoring format, I think you are right to downgrade him but in standard 5x5 leagues, there's still a chance he's useful. 

- Luis Garcia of the Phillies is a guy I definitely considered and I actually made a note on my excel spreadsheet of pitching prospects (so out of position) to look deeper into his profile. He had a really promising debut in the GCL, hitting .369/.433/.488 with 1 HR and 12 SBs over 187 PAs. Supported it with a nice approach including an 8% walk rate, and showed high-end contact skills with an 11.2% strikeout rate and elite 7% swinging-strike rate (best in the GCL). The reasons he didn't make the list is the concern about future power potential (smaller build at 5 foot 11, 170 lbs and receives 35-40 future power grades), speed is plus but he wasn't terribly efficient on the bases in ROK ball yet (12 for 20), and he's still just 17 and so there's a lot of potential variance left in his profile. He may be another Andres Gimenez type, and that's a nice prospect but that's higher floor prospect rather than a high ceiling prospect and I think that a super far away mid-tier upside prospect isn't quite ready to land on top 150 lists. Good name to keep in mind though!

- Alex Reyes is a guy with a ton of upside, but I think also carries a bunch of downside risk and I feel like I've baked that into his ranking. If you banking on him being a SP, know that he's now 2 years removed from starting consistently and has a lot of innings to build up. In that last exposure as a full-time starter (2016), he dealt with a bunch of command issues (11%+ walk rates). And while he looked terrific in his initial return from injury this year as a SP, remember that it was just a 5 game sample across 5 different levels. His upside is still one of the highest among prospect eligible pitchers with his elite 4 pitch mix, and I feel like I've shown that with his projections being among the very best among pitchers. Until he is able to prove healthy and capable though, I think he's ranked fairly. Just my opinion!

- Honestly, I didn't think to include Willians Austudillo in my rankings and I think that's a very worthwhile shoutout of a missed player. He lacked prospect hype before receiving the call (also doesn't help that he was passed on by 3 other organizations and is 27), and so that likely led to me missing him in the rankings! He's definitely an intriguing option in dynasty leagues with his unique profile, especially those in standard leagues where his lack of patience doesn't mean much. He's going to have to hit and hit to remain valuable, and I think his contact suggest that he can!

- I ended up adding Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jose Suarez as #'s 149 and 150 respectively after realizing that Willie Calhoun and Taylor Ward were no longer prospect eligible. Hayes is becoming more interesting as his minor league batted ball figures suggest that he's raised his launch angle. Even with that, reports suggest his power is strength related rather than bat speed, and that his bat speed isn't great and so I'm not sure how much power upside there is with him. His contact skills are very good though and he should be able to chip in on the bases. Mediocre overall fantasy profile imo but a safe bet to reach it. And you know I'm in on Mauricio! His upside is special with his bat speed and projectability (6 foot 3, 166 lbs). He hasn't shown enough to make the list yet but he's a candidate to do so in the future if he can turn that promise into production.

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On 10/23/2018 at 10:58 AM, tucker26 said:

Montero is ranked ahead of Beer. Just sayin, not many things in life rank ahead of Beer. #stud

One of the best comments I've seen in a while! ahaha

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On 10/24/2018 at 8:40 AM, wifflegod said:

@garlando

A few things I noticed that I’d love your feedback on:

 

Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are sliding, what are your thoughts on those two players?

 

Garret Hampson - Likelihood of an instant roster spot give him a boost ala Kingery?

 

Not buying the Brendan Rodgers sliding trend?

 

What is keeping Chris Paddack from being the top pitching prospect in baseball?  

 

 

Good questions!

Hunter Greene is sliding because of the elbow strain he suffered in August plus he's oddly been more hittable as a professional than expected, especially the fastball which we saw get tagged in the future's game this year. Still think there's a lot to like, he misses plenty of bats (crazy 30.3 K% supported by an above-average 12.8% swinging-strike rate), he shows pretty good control (7.8 BB%), he has a viable 3 pitch mix highlighted by a triple digits fastball, a slider that flashes plus occasionally, and changeup this is still raw but has already taken steps forward. Good news is, he's still just 19 and he has plenty of time to figure out his game. Fairly high risk given his hittability right now and the injury risk associated with throwing that hard that often but the upside is high too.

McKay is a guy I struggle to rank properly because of the two-way play. I ranked him solely as a pitcher in these rankings, and so I will probably have him ranked lower than pretty well everyone at the moment. His two-way play has held him back in lower-levels longer than perhaps is normal for one of the top college arms, and I think that has led to him beating up on inferior competition thus far often. The pitching numbers are terrific though, really nice control, elite swinging-strike numbers, high GB rates, and a nice 4 pitch mix with a chance for all 4 of them to be above-average. My concern is that there's only 1 pitch expected to be plus, that is his curveball, and that's certainly not a bad thing, I just think that his success will be tested more as he moves up the ladder. Curious to see how he gets developed going forward.

Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skill set is quite fantasy friendly. First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS.

I've been kinda down on Brendan Rodgers overall but I still think he's a top 10 fantasy prospect. He is very aggressive at the plate, doesn't walk much, and his aggressiveness hides his average to below-average contact skills (below average 11.8% swinging-strike rate at AA and 11.1% in AAA). He has plenty of power though and I think Coors Field will help him fill any gaps in his offensive game. .280ish with 25 HRs and a hint of speed is a terrific value at SS or 2B and that's why he's still a top 10 prospect imo.

Paddack has a chance to jump into that elite tier of SP prospects, he's just behind it imo because of some minor breaking ball consistency concerns. He's been able to dominate the lower-levels on the back of the fastball/changeup combo (Changeup is crazy good, receives 65-70 grades), but the curveball has needed to take a step forward and reports suggest it has turned into a 50-55 weapon. If that curveball ticks up again to 60+ or he adds another weapon,  that will secure the jump into the #1 pitching prospect discussion. 

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On 10/24/2018 at 10:20 AM, I like baseball said:

Overall it is a really good list.  The only one I see with a big discrepancy from the norm would be Joey Bart.  I'm really surprised to see how big of a difference in value where you have him ranked.  There are a couple of other nitpicking ones but the +/- in spots there really don't make that much of a difference.

 

Good job.

 

Thanks for the kind words and I'm glad you agree with the list for the most part. So Joey Bart is certainly intriguing, power hitting catcher with above-average defensive grades that should mean he stays behind the plate. I feel like his ranking on lot of sites is based on his draft position rather than his tools and production. He did produce really well in low-A this past year after being drafted, but as a top SEC player, he arguably should have been expected to dominate that level (1.6 years older than league average). I'm also slightly concerned at the low walk rates that he posted as a professional, far lower than the 15.07% walk rate of his junior year at Georgia Tech. Interestingly, in his Freshman and Sophmore seasons in college, he didn't walk tons either so maybe that's more him rather than the patient Junior college hitter? I also couldn't help but notice his high GB rate as a professional that may limit his power somewhat but he did smash 13 HRs in 204 PAs (24.5 HR/FB%). He's also quite far away still from the majors and is doesn't show high-end contact skills and it all plays into a ranking outside the top 100 and #5 overall among catchers who have either shown more and/or are closer to the majors.

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It's a good list based on the Hampson placement alone. Guy is Trea Turner lite in the minor leagues and his home club plays in Coors. Good enough defensively at multiple positions to secure playing time. And he's on no lists. 

 

 

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Nice list but for me some names are missing that should be in at least a top 150. Guys like ATL OF Pache, CWS OF Rutherford, ATL SP Muller. Not sure when STL C Knizner is going to get his due but for me he's top 140-150 after the continuous strong numbers he's putting up. Also rumblings are its Knizner not Carson Kelly who is the heir apparent to Molina. 

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On 10/24/2018 at 10:43 AM, wifflegod said:

Also, 

Can you give us your thoughts on Andres Gimenez and Drew Waters?

Andres Gimenez is a guy I think I view as more of a high floor prospect rather than a high ceiling. Contact skills are quite solid highlighted by a 19.9% K rate supported by an 11.7% swinging-strike rate at Advanced-A and 14.4% K rate supported by an 11.2% swinging-strike rate (note that MLB average last year for swinging-strike% was 10.7%). His relative aggressiveness this year helps mitigate some of the swing and miss too, and when you add in that he was very young for both levels and you can start to project him to be an above-average to plus contact hitter. His overall upside is limited though due to below-average raw power along with a low launch angle that has resulted in a 51.5% GB rate at A+ and 60.5% GB rate at AA (for reference, just 19 players in the majors had a 50%+ GB rate last year). His speed is also projected to decrease as he ages with Fangraphs having a 55/50 grade on him which has me believing he won't be a big threat on the bases in the majors despite the 38 SBs this year (also solid but not great efficiency at 73%). A projection of  .273/.336, 12 HRs, 13 SBs I think is reasonable which makes him a potential fantasy starter in 12 team leagues at SS but that's certainly a lower-end starting option.

Waters if you all remember got some hype last off-season around these parts after a guy made a post claiming him to be the next Mike Trout or something. He may not be that sort of player when all is said and done but Waters does possess an impressive collection of tools including plus raw power, plus current speed, and plus arm. The question is mostly on the hit tool and approach as he's been fairly aggressive this past year at full-season ball and posted swinging-strike rates of 11.5% and then 15% at A and A+ respectively. He was certainly more challenged by A+ and perhaps slightly overmatched, but he was quite young for the level and so that's understandable. The other thing with him right now is that his GB rate is quite high with a 51.5% mark at Single-A and 47.2% mark at A+ which suggests that he may not get to all of his raw power until changes are made. He's young and talented and so he's certainly capable of making big gains, but he's still very much a project at the moment. He's a higher risk/higher reward type of prospect.

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On 10/24/2018 at 11:37 AM, BigPapi44 said:

@garlando really appreciate your efforts on the RW Forum and thanks for the opportunity to provide feedback and ask questions.  Just some insight from you, from a strictly fantasy standpoint.  We know that outside of pitchers that catchers seem to be the most risky in terms of their ability to stick and then produce meaningful fantasy stats.  Right now, I own both Keibert Ruiz and Ronaldo Hernandez.  Hernandez seems to have the better power, whereas Ruiz the better contact and seemingly less power.  Ruiz has also performed reasonably well at a higher level, especially given his age.  If you could only keep one, 5x5 fantasy league (so no OBP/SLG, etc.), which one would you go with and what is/are the separating factor(s)?  Thanks in advance.

Appreciate the kind words, and I wanted to mention that I appreciate your contributions to these forums as well! You're spot on with your scouting reports on Ruiz and Hernandez, and I'm not sure how much value I can add to this question. Ruiz is showing elite contact skills with sub-15% K rates throughout his minor league career including an incredible 8% mark at AA supported by a 6.8% swinging-strike rate which ranked 4th best in the Texas League this past year. All while being 4.8 years younger than league average this past year at AA and playing the game's most demanding position. He gets above-average raw power grades and his batted ball profile does suggest that he shouldn't have too much issue getting to it in game, and I think he will more frequently as he gets stronger with age. There's .280+ with 20 HR upside, and I think his contact skills make him a safe bet to return value.

Hernandez is interesting and been a big riser this year! Contact skills look to be about average with swinging-strike rates between 10.4% and 11.4% during the last 3 years and his aggressiveness at the plate helps him post above-average K rates. He seems to be one that has made a swing-change this year as his GB rate fell by 8% and his FB rate increased by 10.9% which explains the power explosion this year. I think his focus on power and lack of patience may leave him more susceptible to upper-level pitching than Ruiz and therefore I think Hernadez is the riskier prospect to invest in at this point. Also, think name value means a lot for prospects, and with Ruiz's success at a young age, he's been ranked highly by scouting services and I think his value is higher in terms of trade value and so I think again it's safer to invest in him. Hope that helps! 

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On 10/26/2018 at 1:29 PM, dod959 said:

It's a good list based on the Hampson placement alone. Guy is Trea Turner lite in the minor leagues and his home club plays in Coors. Good enough defensively at multiple positions to secure playing time. And he's on no lists. 

 

 

1

Yeah, I don't understand why he's on so few lists at this point! I do think we're starting to see a change in his perception recently I'll probably end up as one of the higher guys on Hampson. I just think his skillset is very fantasy friendly! First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS.
 

Now I get the concern over playing time for Hampson, he’s going to have to fend off a few interesting and highly valued players in the organization like Brendan Rodgers, but I think Hampson will get the first chance as Rodgers looks to need a little more time in AAA currently. Hampson looks ready to be given a chance at 2B with DJ Lemahieu a likely goner in FA as he handled AAA well and even did well in the majors in a small sample size, and he could run with it if he proves himself capable. I also think there’s a good chance that Hampson gets an opportunity in the OF, particularly in CF as Charlie Blackmon is better off in a corner OF spot now and Cargo is likely gone as well. Dahl and Tapia both deserve to get their chance, but Dahl is likely a platoon option at this point:

.234/.258/.438 line with an elevated K rate against lefties this year for a 68 wRC+ .
286/.346/.568 line against righties this year for a 123 wRC+
Career history is similar
Interestingly, he’s been okay home against lefties riding a higher BAPIP but put up a -40 wRC+ on the road against lefties this year.
 

Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skill set is quite fantasy friendly. Interested to see how it all plays out next year!

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On 11/3/2018 at 11:54 AM, LarrysBraves26 said:

Nice list but for me some names are missing that should be in at least a top 150. Guys like ATL OF Pache, CWS OF Rutherford, ATL SP Muller. Not sure when STL C Knizner is going to get his due but for me he's top 140-150 after the continuous strong numbers he's putting up. Also rumblings are its Knizner not Carson Kelly who is the heir apparent to Molina. 

So my process of putting together lists like this starts with me making a list of everyone that I think is worthy of consideration, and then I sort them which causes some guys to slide up or down. My initial list of players included all those guys you mentioned and they ended up falling out of the top 150 for various reasons. Pache fell because of the lack of fantasy production and how his peripherals suggested he's far away from reaching his ceiling (below-average contact skills including poor swinging-strike rates and poor approach, low launch angle which limits his game power, and his inefficiency on the bases that suggests that his instincts for stealing bases aren't there currently and will likely lead to mediocre SB totals. Better real-life prospect than fantasy). Rutherford has shown a low-launch angle (50%+ GB rates) which suggests mediocre power potential unless changes are made, and also hasn't shown great contact skills as his swinging-strike rates have been below-average the last 2 years, and he's not likely to return much SB value due to 50/45 speed grades and poor current efficiency on the bases which all screams mediocrity. Muller is interesting as a lefty with 3 average or better pitches which gives him a quality floor, but I question his upside some as he's battled inconsistent mechanics that has led to varying velocity numbers and shape on his breaking ball. His Changeup has reportedly taken steps forward but it's still just one above-average/plus pitch and that's more of a #4 in an MLB rotation sort of arm and I just think other guys on the list have shown more or have more upside.

Knizer was the closest to making the list, and perhaps I've undervalued him slightly but I view him as a higher floor but mediocre upside sort of C. His contact skills are very good and what is going to carry him for sure! He has never posted a K% above 13.4% and consistently posted strong swinging-strike numbers including an 8.2% mark at AA and 5.4% at AAA during his small sample there. The approach gives me some pause though as he's not one to wait around for his pitch with just a 3.44 P/PA mark (for reference, that's less than notorious free-swingers Eddie Rosario, Adam Jones, and Javier Baez posted in the majors this year), and I think that along with a lower launch angle (46.9% GB rate at AA this year) will lead to him being a guy that under-performs power wise compared to his raw power potential. His .121 ISO at AA this year is a good example as it shows that while he made plenty of contact, it's not of great contact quality due to the approach. Add it all up and I think you have a guy that can produce something like .275/.325 with 10-15 HRs at the majors give or take with little to no speed upside and I think it's just an okay fantasy profile.

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Pache was a teenager in advanced A and AA. We get spoiled by vladdy and Juan Soto. Yet most players are just ready for AA at 19.

 

Pache is a pure projection vs production prospect. I understand if your emphasis is on production over projection. Yet i wouldnt underestimate his actual offensive profile because it did not translate as a 19 year old.

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37 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Pache was a teenager in advanced A and AA. We get spoiled by vladdy and Juan Soto. Yet most players are just ready for AA at 19.

 

Pache is a pure projection vs production prospect. I understand if your emphasis is on production over projection. Yet i wouldnt underestimate his actual offensive profile because it did not translate as a 19 year old.

I agree lol. The KID is 19 yrs old facing dudes who can throw 90+. We are to critical with stats on kids not old enough to have a dang beer as if that's what they will be when they are 24+. 

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2 hours ago, LarrysBraves26 said:

I agree lol. The KID is 19 yrs old facing dudes who can throw 90+. We are to critical with stats on kids not old enough to have a dang beer as if that's what they will be when they are 24+. 

We just saw this with Mondesi. Mondesi never put up good minor league stats early in his career. He was super aggressively promoted and most fantasy people viewed him as your typical defense first SS prospect.   He hit .243 with 6 HRs and 19 SBs when he was 19.  He didn't find his power stroke until he turned 21.  He stole twice as many bags last year then he did at 19.

 

There is a difference between the JP Crawfords and the prospects who are great defenders but have actual offensive upside that isn't translating. Due it part they are aggressively promoted because of said defense. I've seen most sites peg Pache in the 50/70 Power/Speed range.  Now its a big question if these tools actualize. So its fair to keep him lower in fantasy right now for more polished offensive profiles.

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