Dirty Little Birdie

CJ McCollum 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Owned him last year, he's a streaky player. Id look to buy low but one of the smarter owners in my league has him

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On 10/25/2018 at 8:34 AM, Dirty Little Birdie said:

Kind of a rough start so far this season. Anyone looking to buy low right now?

 

"Kind of a rough start" is a huge understatement.  He's been worse than waiver wire caliber so far.  I still wouldn't sell him without getting top 50 value back for him in return, but he's been incredibly disappointing so far.

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3 hours ago, heero78 said:

buy low time? I cant see him playing any worse than this lol.

 

Depends on how long you can buy him I guess.  Personally I own zero shares of McCollum and I'm not looking to invest unless I can get him for a dead giveaway price.    

 I felt like McCollum was very overrated in drafts this year (considering he's basically just a 2 cat player: points and 3 pointers), and he's looked truly pathetic so far this year.

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7 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Depends on how long you can buy him I guess.  Personally I own zero shares of McCollum and I'm not looking to invest unless I can get him for a dead giveaway price.    

 I felt like McCollum was very overrated in drafts this year (considering he's basically just a 2 cat player: points and 3 pointers), and he's looked truly pathetic so far this year.

Hard to argue he hasn't been pathetic, but far from a 2 cat player. Historically has had much better fg%, also above average assists for a SG.  Even will get around .5 blocks.

 

To summarize, buy low where you can.  The fg% should normalize to around 45%.  I liken it to buying low in fantasy baseball on a .280 hitter hitting. 200 in April. 

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I just need him to fix his damn FG%. I have a bunch of guys shooting way below their career norms and he's one of the culprits I didn't think I'd have to worry about too much.

If his FG% increases then his points should go back to what he's been doing the past couple seasons. The only other issue is his low steals right now (about .5 off what he normally does) which is also contributing to his depressed value, but I'd be more willing to tolerate that if he wasn't destroying my FG% every other night. 

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8 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

Hard to argue he hasn't been pathetic, but far from a 2 cat player. Historically has had much better fg%, also above average assists for a SG.  Even will get around .5 blocks.

 

To summarize, buy low where you can.  The fg% should normalize to around 45%.  I liken it to buying low in fantasy baseball on a .280 hitter hitting. 200 in April. 

 

I agree the FG% should come up, but he's been under 45% every year of his career except for one season.  He shouldn't kill you in FG% like a Ricky Rubio, but I wouldn't expect him to be a huge positive in FG% either.

 

For his career, he's averaged less than 1 steal a game, less than 0.5 blocks, less than 3 assists a game, and less than 3 rebounds a game.  That's why I'm calling him a 2 category fantasy player.  He's not a bad player, but pretty overrated fantasy wise in my opinion.  For how early he gets drafted, I'd want a lot more category coverage. 

 

When you say buy low, who are you able to get him for?  If you're able to trade for him, without giving a top 75 fantasy asset, I'd do that, but I kinda doubt you can get him for that low of a price in most leagues.  And I wouldn't want to trade a top 50 fantasy asset for him, especially since his usage on offense seems to be going down this year.

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I traded him for Gary Harris and had some regret when I first did it but now am glad I did. 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I agree the FG% should come up, but he's been under 45% every year of his career except for one season.  He shouldn't kill you in FG% like a Ricky Rubio, but I wouldn't expect him to be a huge positive in FG% either.

 

For his career, he's averaged less than 1 steal a game, less than 0.5 blocks, less than 3 assists a game, and less than 3 rebounds a game.  That's why I'm calling him a 2 category fantasy player.  He's not a bad player, but pretty overrated fantasy wise in my opinion.  For how early he gets drafted, I'd want a lot more category coverage. 

 

When you say buy low, who are you able to get him for?  If you're able to trade for him, without giving a top 75 fantasy asset, I'd do that, but I kinda doubt you can get him for that low of a price in most leagues.  And I wouldn't want to trade a top 50 fantasy asset for him, especially since his usage on offense seems to be going down this year.

 

His supporting stats are fine for a SG.  He was the #50 player in 9 cats last season and #28 in 2016-17.  Once his fg% normalizes he will again be a top 40-50 player overall.  

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56 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

His supporting stats are fine for a SG.  He was the #50 player in 9 cats last season and #28 in 2016-17.  Once his fg% normalizes he will again be a top 40-50 player overall.  

 

IF his fg% normalizes... IF

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41 minutes ago, Stefan said:

 

IF his fg% normalizes... IF

We are 8 games in.  Sample size.  Deep breaths.

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3 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

His supporting stats are fine for a SG.  He was the #50 player in 9 cats last season and #28 in 2016-17.  Once his fg% normalizes he will again be a top 40-50 player overall.  

 

I don't see him repeating his 2016-2017 season.  That year was mostly without Nurkic and McCollum was a bigger part of the offense then, and his numbers tailed off big time the last month of the year after they picked up Nurkic.

 

Repeating last year should be doable.  Look, like I said, he's not a bad player and he is durable and reliable. I just prefer getting more category coverage out of my early round players, so someone is always going to outbid me for him.  

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Any comments....?

 

like they said below....I can’t use my 3rd round for a guy (SG slot) with less 3Ast or/and 1.5Stl or/and 3Reb 

Agree for his 3’s and Pts and Ft% and his FG will improve but too expensive for me.

 

For exemple, I prefer to buy a guy like Fournier with my 7th round who will produce more Ast/Reb/Stl  with less Pts et fg% and around same 3’s...agree?

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2 hours ago, taenggg said:

Cj is a** in fantasy 

 

Thanks for your brilliant analysis and contribution to this thread.....now head back over to the football board :)

 

This thread is starting to remind me of the Gary Harris thread at the beginning of last year where people where calling him trash and saying to drop him after a slow start 2 weeks into the season.

 

11 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I don't see him repeating his 2016-2017 season.  That year was mostly without Nurkic and McCollum was a bigger part of the offense then, and his numbers tailed off big time the last month of the year after they picked up Nurkic.

 

 

 

His usage has not changed much at all since the 2016-17 season.  He was not really a "bigger part of the offense then."

 

Here are his usage rates:  

2016-17:  26.6%

2017-18:  25.7%

2018-19 (8 game sample size):  24.7%

 

This is a miniscule drop in his usage rate....his role on the team is as steady as they come.  This is not a player suddenly looking at a drop in usage....people are overreacting to his shooting % in an 8 game sample size which is under 10% of the NBA season. This is not fantasy football where the entire season is 16 games.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Thanks for your brilliant analysis and contribution to this thread.....now head back over to the football board :)

 

This thread is starting to remind me of the Gary Harris thread at the beginning of last year where people where calling him trash and saying to drop him after a slow start 2 weeks into the season.

 

 

His usage has not changed much at all since the 2016-17 season.  He was not really a "bigger part of the offense then."

 

Here are his usage rates:  

2016-17:  26.6%

2017-18:  25.7%

2018-19 (8 game sample size):  24.7%

 

This is a miniscule drop in his usage rate....his role on the team is as steady as they come.  This is not a player suddenly looking at a drop in usage....people are overreacting to his shooting % in an 8 game sample size which is under 10% of the NBA season. This is not fantasy football where the entire season is 16 games.

 

 

 

Agree with you concerning his % but the trouble is his lack of Ast / Reb / Stl...

Like a said before, I really don’t understand his ranking...3rd round when you can have Fournier around 5 round behind...and I don’t see 5 round (9cat) between both guy 

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2 minutes ago, 23_gaby_23 said:

 

Agree with you concerning his % but the trouble is his lack of Ast / Reb / Stl...

Like a said before, I really don’t understand his ranking...3rd round when you can have Fournier around 5 round behind...and I don’t see 5 round (9cat) between both guy 

 

Not disagreeing with this, I would never draft CJ in 3rd round.  He is a top 50ish guy which is a 4th-5th round value IMO.

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34 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Not disagreeing with this, I would never draft CJ in 3rd round.  He is a top 50ish guy which is a 4th-5th round value IMO.

 

Correction for Fournier (Round 7th) so 4 round after...?

 

We are both agree

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3 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

His usage has not changed much at all since the 2016-17 season.  He was not really a "bigger part of the offense then."

 

Here are his usage rates:  

2016-17:  26.6%

2017-18:  25.7%

2018-19 (8 game sample size):  24.7%

 

This is a miniscule drop in his usage rate....his role on the team is as steady as they come.  This is not a player suddenly looking at a drop in usage....people are overreacting to his shooting % in an 8 game sample size which is under 10% of the NBA season. This is not fantasy football where the entire season is 16 games.

 

 

Take a look at his splits with and without Nurkic in 2016-2017.  Had a significant dropoff after Nurkic came over, and that's continued last year and this year.  I'd consider him a fringe top 50 guy, but he always seems to get drafted in the top 40.  Not a bad player and is definitely durable, but he's a little overrated in my opinion.

Edited by FootballFan101
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