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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

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17 hours ago, azeri98 said:

Votto's will end up being terrible, he's still got 5 years left. Tulo was let go with 2 years remaining and the 3 years previous to that were not worth 20 million. Jeter's last 4 years were nothing special, Helton from 2008-13 wasn't that good either, it's not worth signing a player to a 10 year deal it's actually really stupid and front offices have caught on to that, Throw in the Cano deal as well as another boat anchor

The last 4 years of Jeters career were not the last 4 of his 10-year deal, he signed a 10year deal in 2000 (so for the 2001 season) his numbers over those 10 years were all pretty good.  The last 4 years of those produced 3 gold gloves and 2 or 3 silver sluggers.  

 

That 2000 season there were a bunch of big deals, I know that was ARods deal with Texas, that was Jeters with NY both were 10 years, I thought Manny was a 10 year deal too with Boston, but might of been only 8 years, he produced a ton for them, even if it was a 10 year deal and they had to ship him at the end for "manny being manny" they did win 2 WS in that stretch and he was a beast offensively.  

 

If I were a team, what you see really doing damage is where these massive deals on the backend leave the teams hamstrung, so if I were them I would look at 1 of 2 things so that they can tell the player when you are on the decline we would like to be able to get you some help and if you are making top dollar its gonna be harder to do that.  So structure the deal to where its frontloaded OR front load some and defer the rest to where in the years they are sort of in decline, you have some financial flexibility and just not wearing $20 million.  

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

The last 4 years of Jeters career were not the last 4 of his 10-year deal, he signed a 10year deal in 2000 (so for the 2001 season) his numbers over those 10 years were all pretty good.  The last 4 years of those produced 3 gold gloves and 2 or 3 silver sluggers.  

 

That 2000 season there were a bunch of big deals, I know that was ARods deal with Texas, that was Jeters with NY both were 10 years, I thought Manny was a 10 year deal too with Boston, but might of been only 8 years, he produced a ton for them, even if it was a 10 year deal and they had to ship him at the end for "manny being manny" they did win 2 WS in that stretch and he was a beast offensively.  

 

If I were a team, what you see really doing damage is where these massive deals on the backend leave the teams hamstrung, so if I were them I would look at 1 of 2 things so that they can tell the player when you are on the decline we would like to be able to get you some help and if you are making top dollar its gonna be harder to do that.  So structure the deal to where its frontloaded OR front load some and defer the rest to where in the years they are sort of in decline, you have some financial flexibility and just not wearing $20 million.  

 

 

 

Or sign them to a 5-6 year deal at a higher AAV

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22 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

The overwhelming majority have been bad

Is that because of the contract or because of the way the team is run?

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6 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Or sign them to a 5-6 year deal at a higher AAV

That may not be in the budget for some without crossing LT thresh-hold or self imposed budget/cap

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Hmmm... Would love to see Franmil go..

 

 

Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com reports the Padres and Indians have remained in contact regarding a potential trade for starting pitcher Corey Kluber.
Morosi says the Padres have taken their five best prospects off the table (SS Fernando Tatis Jr., LHP Mackenzie Gore, C Francisco Mejia, 2B Luis Urias and RHP Chris Paddack). However the Padres loaded farm system is stocked with plenty of desirable prospects they would be willing to trade, including pitchers Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Anderson Espinoza along with hitters like Buddy Reed, Josh Naylor and Tirso Ornelas. Morosi says young major leaguers Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Lucchesi or Eric Lauer could be part of a deal. Morosi reports the Dodgers continue to be involved in Kluber trade talks as well.

 

and...

 

Will Myers will return to the outfield for the 2019 season.
Myers switched to third base in August of last season and ended up playing 36 games at that position. He told reporters at the Padres' fan fest that he and the team decided to end that experiment, although he could fill in at third occasionally if needed. He batted .253/.318/.446 with 11 homers, 39 RBI and 13 steals in 83 games. He is a rare five-category fantasy contributor when healthy, with batting average (.253 career mark) being his weakest attribute.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Is that because of the contract or because of the way the team is run?

both

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11 minutes ago, parrothead said:

That may not be in the budget for some without crossing LT thresh-hold or self imposed budget/cap

Quite possible, it depends on the team, but the big spending teams have shown they are willing to go over the LT for 1-2 years and then reset, it all depends on the flexibility of their payroll

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4 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

both

Impossible. It can't be both always. So I'm going to ask you to back your claim up. 

 

Give me all of the contracts that are 7+ years long and 120+million that you consider to be bad with an explanation as to why. 

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5 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Is that because of the contract or because of the way the team is run?

Aren't the two intertwined especially now? The penalties from exceeding the Salary Cap are cumulative.  Boston will be finding this out. Loss of draft choices and a depleted farm system at a start. Arbitration eligible players coming up and Mookie getting 30m+ for his final year. Mookie in his final year of arbitration gets compared to Arenado's 30m.

 

The arbitration system isn't perfect but one of the problems with it is star players having the arb years bought out. The comparison bar for arbitration doesn't get raised for all players. Security is nice but it stagnates the system.

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Just now, Low and Away said:

Aren't the two intertwined especially now? The penalties from exceeding the Salary Cap are cumulative.  Boston will be finding this out. Loss of draft choices and a depleted farm system at a start. Arbitration eligible players coming up and Mookie getting 30m+ for his final year. Mookie in his final year of arbitration gets compared to Arenado's 30m.

 

The arbitration system isn't perfect but one of the problems with it is star players having the arb years bought out. The comparison bar for arbitration doesn't get raised for all players. Security is nice but it stagnates the system.

Not really, no. If a team signs Chris Davis to a contract that eats up 30% if they payroll when there are a ton of red flags, that's an issue with the management group making a poor choice of player. The deal money wise isn't bad. 

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7 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

Hmmm... Would love to see Franmil go..

 

 

Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com reports the Padres and Indians have remained in contact regarding a potential trade for starting pitcher Corey Kluber.
Morosi says the Padres have taken their five best prospects off the table (SS Fernando Tatis Jr., LHP Mackenzie Gore, C Francisco Mejia, 2B Luis Urias and RHP Chris Paddack). However the Padres loaded farm system is stocked with plenty of desirable prospects they would be willing to trade, including pitchers Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Anderson Espinoza along with hitters like Buddy Reed, Josh Naylor and Tirso Ornelas. Morosi says young major leaguers Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Lucchesi or Eric Lauer could be part of a deal. Morosi reports the Dodgers continue to be involved in Kluber trade talks as well.

 

and...

 

Will Myers will return to the outfield for the 2019 season.
Myers switched to third base in August of last season and ended up playing 36 games at that position. He told reporters at the Padres' fan fest that he and the team decided to end that experiment, although he could fill in at third occasionally if needed. He batted .253/.318/.446 with 11 homers, 39 RBI and 13 steals in 83 games. He is a rare five-category fantasy contributor when healthy, with batting average (.253 career mark) being his weakest attribute.

 

 

Kluber pitching in San Diego would be perfect for fantasy owners who draft Kluber. I still can’t believe the Indians would even consider trading Corey. They have a team already in place who could be in the World Series. It still bogs the mind that the Mariners sold those pieces when they looked damn good last year. The fans have to be going crazy over those solds. 

 

There was no doubt in my mind that Wil Myers was not going to be the Padres 3rd baseman.. That experiment last year showed he wasn’t a third baseman 

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Davis's contract was a bad management decision and bad because the player never lived up to any part of it. 

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2 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Davis's contract was a bad management decision and bad because the player never lived up to any part of it. 

That's my point. Dollar wise the amount of money isn't obscene. The decision on who to give it to and who to put around that player are what makes it bad. 

 

My overall point is the MLB is swimming in money. If a team wants to sign a 25 year old All Star to $400mil, it's their choice. There's nothing wrong with that. Who they sign and what they do with the rest of payroll is what's at issue, which boils down to how the team is run. 

 

Contracts aren't bad. The decisions around them can be. 

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Just now, Low and Away said:

Maybe but the long term contract has become part of baseball's offseason.

Are we talking about 2018 off season or 2004? 

We are talking about ARod, Chris Davis, Derek Jeters & etc... long term contracts ... 

 

 

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Just now, shakestreet said:

Are we talking about 2018 off season or 2004? 

We are talking about ARod, Chris Davis, Derek Jeters & etc... long term contracts ... 

 

 

That part was my fault as I wondered if any team had results signing a player to a long term (10 years) and how it related to current team construction. I couldn't think of any so I asked.

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[Several removed.  There is nothing stopping anyone from opening up a new thread specifically focused on the pros and cons of long-term contracts, but we are not going to micromanage this kind of catch-all news and discussion thread.  Moderation has always been a lot more hands-off in the offseason, so the bar for shutting down a line of commentary in this sort of thread is very high.  In-thread complaints about a thread are never okay here -- if you have a concern about the discussion being derailed, report the post to us and we'll be happy to take a closer look.  Otherwise, keep the complaints to yourself.]

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43 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Kluber pitching in San Diego would be perfect for fantasy owners who draft Kluber. I still can’t believe the Indians would even consider trading Corey. They have a team already in place who could be in the World Series. It still bogs the mind that the Mariners sold those pieces when they looked damn good last year. The fans have to be going crazy over those solds. 

 

There was no doubt in my mind that Wil Myers was not going to be the Padres 3rd baseman.. That experiment last year showed he wasn’t a third baseman 

So with Myers on the move to the OF, doubtful Reyes is a starter - and what about 3B?  Ty France?   Or Hoz reaching out to his former Royals 3B Moose for a reunion in SD?  Guessing Moose waiting for Manny deal to fall into place.  

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57 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Impossible. It can't be both always. So I'm going to ask you to back your claim up. 

 

Give me all of the contracts that are 7+ years long and 120+million that you consider to be bad with an explanation as to why. 

Chris Davis- No explanation needed

Albert Pujols- No explanation needed

Joey Votto - still has 5 years left, no way he lives up to it

Miguel Cabrerra- he's finished

R Cano- on the decline the last 2 years

David Price- no explanatation needed

Prince Fielder-no explanation needed

Joe Mauer- didn't come close expectations

Jason Heyward- he sucks

Mark Teixeira- didn't meet expectations

King Felix- has been terrible for a while now

Steven Strasburg- can't stay healthy

Buster Posey- On the decline for a few years

CC. Sabathia- didn't live up to expectations

Matt- Kemp- no explanation needed

Tulo- he just sucks and has for a few years

M Tanaka- didn't live up to expectations

Adrian Gonzalez- no explanation needed

Jacoby Ellsbury-Ditto

Cole Hamels- not worth it

Carl Crawford-no explanation needed

Todd Helton- his last 4 years sucked

David Wright- no explanation needed

Johan Santana- Ditto

Alfonso Soriano- not worth it

johnny Cueto-Ditto

Shin-Soo Choo-Ditto

Matt Cain- bust

Barry Zito- bust

Vernon Wells- bust

Jayson Werth-not worth it

Ryan Howard-ditto

Josh Hamilton- bust

Mike Hampton-bust

Jason Giambi- not worth it

Cliff Lee- not worth it

Elvis Andrus- not worth it still has 3 years left

Griffey jr with the reds- not worth it

Jordan Zimmerman-bust

Dustin Pedroia- not worth it, still has 2 years left

Jose Reyes- not worth it

Kevin Brown- not worth it

Ryan Braun-not worth it

Homer bailey- bust

Carlos Lee- Astros- bust

Ryan Zimmerman- not worth it

Evan Longoria- not worth it

Kyle Seager- not worth it

 

Here is the list of guys worth their long term deal

 

A Rod

Kershaw

Verlander

Jeter

Manny Ramirez

Mad Max

Freddie Freeman

Mike Trout

 

These guys i'm iffy on

justin Upton- I don't think he's worth his deal but it's not a slam dunk either way

Jon Lester- they won a championship but his last 2 years haven't been good

Carlos Beltran- Mets- he had 3 great years and 3 not so great

 

So the bad contracts far outweigh the good

I listed all the 100 million dollar long term deals at 5 years or more

Edited by azeri98
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8 minutes ago, parrothead said:

So with Myers on the move to the OF, doubtful Reyes is a starter - and what about 3B?  Ty France?   Or Hoz reaching out to his former Royals 3B Moose for a reunion in SD?  Guessing Moose waiting for Manny deal to fall into place.  

 

Everyone is waiting on Manny. Padres have been previously linked to Miguel Andujar. And that probably has legs with Preller and prospects galore.

   

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6 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

 

 

Chris Davis- No explanation needed

Albert Pujols- No explanation needed

Joey Votto - still has 5 years left, no way he lives up to it

Miguel Cabrerra- he's finished

R Cano- on the decline the last 2 years

David Price- no explanatation needed

Prince Fielder-no explanation needed

Joe Mauer- didn't come close expectations

Jason Heyward- he sucks

Mark Teixeira- didn't meet expectations

King Felix- has been terrible for a while now

Steven Strasburg- can't stay healthy

Buster Posey- On the decline for a few years

CC. Sabathia- didn't live up to expectations

Matt- Kemp- no explanation needed

Tulo- he just sucks and has for a few years

M Tanaka- didn't live up to expectations

Adrian Gonzalez- no explanation needed

Jacoby Ellsbury-Ditto

Cole Hamels- not worth it

Carl Crawford-no explanation needed

Todd Helton- his last 4 years sucked

David Wright- no explanation needed

Johan Santana- Ditto

Alfonso Soriano- not worth it

johnny Cueto-Ditto

Shin-Soo Choo-Ditto

Matt Cain- bust

Barry Zito- bust

Vernon Wells- bust

Jayson Werth-not worth it

Ryan Howard-ditto

Josh Hamilton- bust

Mike Hampton-bust

Jason Giambi- not worth it

Cliff Lee- not worth it

Elvis Andrus- not worth it still has 3 years left

Griffey jr with the reds- not worth it

Jordan Zimmerman-bust

Dustin Pedroia- not worth it, still has 2 years left

Jose Reyes- not worth it

Kevin Brown- not worth it

Ryan Braun-not worth it

Homer bailey- bust

Carlos Lee- Astros- bust

Ryan Zimmerman- not worth it

Evan Longoria- not worth it

Kyle Seager- not worth it

 

Here is the list of guys worth their long term deal

 

A Rod

Kershaw

Verlander

Jeter

Manny Ramirez

Mad Max

Freddie Freeman

Mike Trout

 

These guys i'm iffy on

justin Upton- I don't think he's worth his deal but it's not a slam dunk either way

Jon Lester- they won a championship but his last 2 years haven't been good

Carlos Beltran- Mets- he had 3 great years and 3 not so great

 

So the bad contracts far outweigh the good

I listed all the 100 million dollar long term deals at 5 years or more

 

Filter By:

26 YO

30+ WAR. 

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FWIW I didnt think the thread had really derailed, I think there is a general feel amongst clubs that the days of big money free agents is maybe done and in part because all too often it has not been a successful move and I think thats part of what was being discussed because at it pertains to 2019 because it has been so quiet.  

 

One of the Pads related twitter personalities I follow is Ghost of Ray Kroc and today the tweet was " Ive had my MLB app set to notify of me of Padres news and I basically forgot I still had it because there HAS BEEN NO NEWS" - Yesterday while driving into work I heard the guys on the Giants flaship station make a backhanded comment towards their new baseball ops guy about doing nothing. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, azeri98 said:

Ask Baltimore about Chris Davis, or the Angels about Pujols and Hamilton, Do you really think when all is said and done the Cano deal won't be looked at as a bust?

 

I personally wouldn't have made those signings.

 

Hamilton was 31 when he signed with the Angels.

Pujols was 31 when he signed with the Angels.

Davis was 30 when he signed with the Orioles.

Cano was 32 when he signed with the Mariners.

 

Having said this, Cano has still averaged over 4.0 fWAR/season with the Mariners. I know you don't like to use WAR but even if he averages 2.0-2.5 f/WAR with the Mets he will have a total fWAR of 30+ over those 10 seasons. That's not a bust. It looks like a bust because the Mariners didn't achieve anything with him on their team. 

 

These contracts shouldn't be used to argue against a long contract for Harper and Machado though. All four of these guys were over 30 and that makes a huge difference.

 

 

 

 

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I'd be wary on Harper, guy has already missed a bunch of games due to injury.  I can't see him becoming any more durable as this contract he's about to sign gets older.  

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21 hours ago, azeri98 said:

I wouldn't give a 26 year old a ten year deal, you mention those two deals, how about A Rod's last deal? How's is Stanton's deal going to look near the end?


EXCELLENT question. Let's look. 

 

For this post, assume that current WAR evaluations value a WAR anywhere from 8 to 10 million dollars. Roughly. Let's take it at the low end, 8 million dollars. 

A-Rod signed for 10 years and 252 million dollars in December of 2000. 


From 2001-2010 Alex Rodriguez compiled 71.6 WAR (averaging 151+ games played per season). 

 

1 WAR would have to be worth about 3.5 million dollars for that deal to have been a BREAK EVEN point. Now, I'm not arguing that a WAR was worth that, then. The #'s have trended up every season. However, A-Rod put up nearly 72 WAR in the 10 year span of that contract. To argue he wasn't worth it, given he won 3 MVP awards and came in second another year, is a weak argument. The deal with the Rangers was excellent. The 2007 deal was idiotic from the onset, signing a 32 year old guy to a 10 year deal. 

 

In Dec 2007 he signed a 10 year, 275 million dollar deal. Again, bad deal, but look at the age it came at. And even considering how awful the deal was, the Yankees still recouped ~25 WAR from A-Rod. And up until age 35/36, he was returning positive value on that contract. Shame on them for rolling the dice ate ages beyond that. 

 

Stanton signed a monster deal in the 14-15 offseason. He's returned roughly 18 WAR on that deal, worth approx 144 million dollars (again, at 8 mil per WAR, which is a low estimation. Over the next 9 seasons, Stanton needs to produce 22.375 WAR to be a break even guy on his contract. That's more than feasible, and the risk isn't if he'll do it, the risk is if he'll have some sort of career altering injury that prevents him from doing it, IMO (which is usually the case). 

 

10 years @ 300 million dollars = 37.5 WAR to "break even." The cost of WAR rises on an annual basis. 

All of these estimations are using a very low figure for WAR, and not accounting for the fact that the cost rises every year as contracts go up. 

At the end of the day, these contracts aren't bad buys. The 2nd A-Rod deal wasn't great, but they still got some significant return on their investment. The problem with these deals is that the years where they produce some monster, team carrying MVP seasons aren't years where they are paid a ton. People are more than fine when you get 10 WAR for a season where you made 25 million, but heaven forbid you ever produce a 1.5 WAR season. Stanton is returning a lot of surplus value on his deal right now. I'm sure at the end he won't be. But teams back load all these contracts, and when a guy is producing the least he's making the most, and it just skews the whole deal.

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