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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

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I don't understand people thinking Sixto+Alfaro is too much for JT Realmuto at all. I get that he doesn't have a long term control, but three years is a lot for a premium player at premium position. So many variables are going into prospects going from variables as simple as health. I don't see this as Jeter asking for too much.

 

Like it reminds me of Boston fans getting all bah-humbug when they traded for one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago and it's just like... shut your mouth and go win a title with Chris Sale you dummy. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

I don't understand people thinking Sixto+Alfaro is too much for JT Realmuto at all. I get that he doesn't have a long term control, but three years is a lot for a premium player at premium position. So many variables are going into prospects going from variables as simple as health. I don't see this as Jeter asking for too much.

 

Like it reminds me of Boston fans getting all bah-humbug when they traded for one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago and it's just like... shut your mouth and go win a title with Chris Sale you dummy. 

Exactly lol, which the Sox did. This gives the Phillies even more of a chance of signing Harper or Machado and possibly Kimbrel, puts them in a great spot to be a top contender this year. They also traded for Segura, which means they want to win now. Giving up even Sixto and others is worth a chance of winning a title.

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

. I get that he doesn't have a long term control, but three years is a lot for a premium player at premium position

 

Two years.  He's a FA for the 2021 season.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/FLA/miami-marlins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

I still think it's worth it for two years of him, but that's just with Sixto and Alfaro.  If it's also Bohm and another piece, it's starting to look like a bit much.

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8 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Two years.  He's a FA for the 2021 season.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/FLA/miami-marlins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

I still think it's worth it for two years of him, but that's just with Sixto and Alfaro.  If it's also Bohm and another piece, it's starting to look like a bit much.

 

This. Sixto is good and has a lot of upside. Alfaro is a solid piece. While losing Sixto hurts (I've personally been a fan for a few years), it's still a good trade and Realmuto is worth it, ESPECIALLY if Harper is following. 

 

Like Tony said... if you're adding two more pieces on top of Sixto and Alfaro, one of which being a Bohm or that comparable level, then that starts to look like danger territory. Even if the two other pieces are of a lower quality, that's fine. But Sixto and Bohm are two very highly rated pieces, and Alfaro is no slouch. To give up all that and one more player is quite a bit. 

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10 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Two years.  He's a FA for the 2021 season.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/FLA/miami-marlins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

I still think it's worth it for two years of him, but that's just with Sixto and Alfaro.  If it's also Bohm and another piece, it's starting to look like a bit much.

 

Gotcha, that's what I initially thought but I thought I read thru 2021 earlier. But regardless, it's still a premium player at premium position in a window you're trying to make a championship window. 

 

Just now, adifazio27 said:

 

This. Sixto is good and has a lot of upside. Alfaro is a solid piece. While losing Sixto hurts (I've personally been a fan for a few years), it's still a good trade and Realmuto is worth it, ESPECIALLY if Harper is following. 

 

Like Tony said... if you're adding two more pieces on top of Sixto and Alfaro, one of which being a Bohm or that comparable level, then that starts to look like danger territory. Even if the two other pieces are of a lower quality, that's fine. But Sixto and Bohm are two very highly rated pieces, and Alfaro is no slouch. To give up all that and one more player is quite a bit. 

 

Idk. I guess we just disagree with our evaluations. I'm not arguing that it isn't steep, but I honestly don't think the Marlins price for JT Realmuto is unfair. I really like what Philly has going even without Bryce/Manny, and this is their only other chance it looks like right now of adding a premium player. I get that Alfaro is a fine piece, but I just don't sweat his loss if I'm being perfectly frank. Not compared to a gain of what I perceive to be significant magnitude. Sixto has a ton of talent. But arms are so flukey, so prone to injury, and in general less reliable in developing IMO. And when you boil it all together, I don't know what my stopping point would be, but I don't think the Marlins are asking too much. 

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25 minutes ago, taobball said:

I don't understand people thinking Sixto+Alfaro is too much for JT Realmuto at all. I get that he doesn't have a long term control, but three years is a lot for a premium player at premium position. So many variables are going into prospects going from variables as simple as health. I don't see this as Jeter asking for too much.

 

Like it reminds me of Boston fans getting all bah-humbug when they traded for one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago and it's just like... shut your mouth and go win a title with Chris Sale you dummy. 

 

22 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Two years.  He's a FA for the 2021 season.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/FLA/miami-marlins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

I still think it's worth it for two years of him, but that's just with Sixto and Alfaro.  If it's also Bohm and another piece, it's starting to look like a bit much.

 

 

if they get realmuto and then go out and sign a big piece like harper or machado,you guys putting them at the top of the NL?

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11 minutes ago, taobball said:

Idk. I guess we just disagree with our evaluations. I'm not arguing that it isn't steep, but I honestly don't think the Marlins price for JT Realmuto is unfair. I really like what Philly has going even without Bryce/Manny, and this is their only other chance it looks like right now of adding a premium player. I get that Alfaro is a fine piece, but I just don't sweat his loss if I'm being perfectly frank. Not compared to a gain of what I perceive to be significant magnitude. Sixto has a ton of talent. But arms are so flukey, so prone to injury, and in general less reliable in developing IMO. And when you boil it all together, I don't know what my stopping point would be, but I don't think the Marlins are asking too much. 

 

Understandable. I still like the deal, and adding Realmuto really adds a nice element to the team. Alfaro doesn't worry me as much. I think losing Sixto and Bohm (if those are the two) would be the only deal I would pause at. I get the trap of prospects and assuming they're going to pan out, and also realize that not nearly as many do as we seem to think when evaluating these trades.

 

At the end of the day, I'd still be fine if that were the deal. Adding Realmuto with the possibility of Harper puts the Phils near, or at, the top of the NL, and if the price is two good prospects, I can live with that. I'd be more wary giving it up than I would be if it's Sixto and Moniak, but when it all comes down to it I really like seeing the front office go for it. This is the reason you load up on all of these prospects in the first place. 

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

 

 

 

if they get realmuto and then go out and sign a big piece like harper or machado,you guys putting them at the top of the NL?

 

Personally, not yet. But it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. 

 

Like it's hard to project so many changes. But when you just look at it positionally... They'd be getting a ton of value at C from JTR. Rhys/Cesar/Jean all profile as above average players IMO. I like McCutchen's chances to bounceback. 

 

I'm not a huge fan of the rotation behind Nola. Arrieta is decent but what/where is he at now. I'm not a Pivetta guy. Just a lot of question marks. Think Eickhoff has a chance to be solid. But mostly this is a team I'd expect to add an arm too at the TD like Robbie Ray or whomever if things were going well. Phillies have built the kind of farm where I think they can afford losses without sacrificing the farm unit as a whole. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

I'm not a huge fan of the rotation behind Nola. Arrieta is decent but what/where is he at now. I'm not a Pivetta guy. Just a lot of question marks. Think Eickhoff has a chance to be solid. But mostly this is a team I'd expect to add an arm too at the TD like Robbie Ray or whomever if things were going well. Phillies have built the kind of farm where I think they can afford losses without sacrificing the farm unit as a whole. 

 

I have a hunch that after Realmuto goes through, they go all in and go sign Harper and Keuchel. Can also see a deadline trade if no Keuchel, but point is I definitely agree that they wouldn't go the full season with this rotation. Nola is a stud but the rotation lacks a true 2. 

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Did I love Sixto as a prospect? Absolutely. He represented a future hope for a garbage major league product I had to watch the last few years.

 

But I don't need prospect hope, when my team improved across the board (outside of SP) with proven talents. And I still see them landing either Harper or Machado. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Personally, not yet. But it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. 

 

Like it's hard to project so many changes. But when you just look at it positionally... They'd be getting a ton of value at C from JTR. Rhys/Cesar/Jean all profile as above average players IMO. I like McCutchen's chances to bounceback. 

 

I'm not a huge fan of the rotation behind Nola. Arrieta is decent but what/where is he at now. I'm not a Pivetta guy. Just a lot of question marks. Think Eickhoff has a chance to be solid. But mostly this is a team I'd expect to add an arm too at the TD like Robbie Ray or whomever if things were going well. Phillies have built the kind of farm where I think they can afford losses without sacrificing the farm unit as a whole. 

possibly madbum if hes having a good year.

ya i agree with the rotation question too.  im a pivetta guy tho.  but even with what they have....a lineup with something like Segura, JTR, Harper, Hoskins is a big lineup and they would still have cutch, cesar, herrera

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3 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

if they get realmuto and then go out and sign a big piece like harper or machado,you guys putting them at the top of the NL?

 

I think they'd be in the discussion. They'd have to have a few things break right for them but they'd be a pretty well rounded team.

 

Harper/Segura/Hoskins/Realmuto/McCutcheon/Herrera/Hernandez/Franco would be a pretty impressive lineup They have a deep, talented, albeit inconsistent BP.  They have a top end SP in Nola (which IMO is the biggest hurdle in forming a rotation), and a solid vet in Arrieta with a few talented guys who could make the next step.

 

I'd still take the Dodgers personally.  But it puts the Phillies within striking distance.  Maybe a deadline trade for an SP2 type pitcher and Pivetta taking the next step forward (and their BP not pooping the bed again this year).

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

possibly madbum if hes having a good year.

ya i agree with the rotation question too.  im a pivetta guy tho.  but even with what they have....a lineup with something like Segura, JTR, Harper, Hoskins is a big lineup and they would still have cutch, cesar, herrera

 

I like Pivetta's breaking ball... and... *shrugs*

 

Just not a complete pitcher to me right now.  

 

1 minute ago, adifazio27 said:

 

I have a hunch that after Realmuto goes through, they go all in and go sign Harper and Keuchel. Can also see a deadline trade if no Keuchel, but point is I definitely agree that they wouldn't go the full season with this rotation. Nola is a stud but the rotation lacks a true 2. 

 

I don't think a true 2 is the problem at all IMO. I think it's more a depth of arms honestly. I'd feel a lot better if they made some of these modest market investments, but I think they have a lot of faith in their guys like Pivetta/Eflin/Eickhoff. I do in the latter a bit more than the former. We'll see if it's rewarded. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

I like Pivetta's breaking ball... and... *shrugs*

 

Just not a complete pitcher to me right now.  

 

 

I don't think a true 2 is the problem at all IMO. I think it's more a depth of arms honestly. I'd feel a lot better if they made some of these modest market investments, but I think they have a lot of faith in their guys like Pivetta/Eflin/Eickhoff. I do in the latter a bit more than the former. We'll see if it's rewarded. 

 

you a dallas keuchel guy?  im really not...especially for what hes asking.  but if they could get him on a 3 year 60 mil deal would you do that?

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10 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

Did I love Sixto as a prospect? Absolutely. He represented a future hope for a garbage major league product I had to watch the last few years.

 

But I don't need prospect hope, when my team improved across the board (outside of SP) with proven talents. And I still see them landing either Harper or Machado. 

I think adding a Dallas or Kimbrel after Harper would fix some of the pitching. Going Robertson Seranthony Kimbrel would help ease some of the SP's.

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The Phillies do have a pretty darn good bullpen and might be able to get away with relying on Nola plus a bunch of workmanlike inning eater types via new-agey creative use of their bullpen.  I think Velasquez could thrive as a reliever if they converted him.

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Marlins are going to get battered night after night in that loaded division. What’s the record for most losses in a season?

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3 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Marlins are going to get battered night after night in that loaded division. What’s the record for most losses in a season?

 

via one source, 

 

There was a 20-134 Cleveland Spiders in 1899.

 

Since 1960 you have the 40-120 NY Mets (1962) and the 43-119 Detroit Tigers (2003)

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Good point.  IF this trade goes through and say the get Harper, that's a pretty solid bump in the ADP.

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Have they ran Andrew McCutchen? 

 

Citizens Bank is low key. Like it's not low key because people are talking about it. But it's not in Yankee/Coors territory where it TRULY effects ADP right now. Miller is getting love because of Yelich last year, but Citizen's bank is an incredible park. Segura, McCutchen, and, if he goes there, JT, are all very underrated players to me. 


EDIT: Also that was honestly one of my first reactions too... PHillies fans will stfu when that HR boost happens and JT goes .285/27. Which I think is pretty realistic. 

Edited by taobball
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18 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

via one source, 

 

There was a 20-134 Cleveland Spiders in 1899.

 

Since 1960 you have the 40-120 NY Mets (1962) and the 43-119 Detroit Tigers (2003)

Can't count the Spiders,  they were the leftovers of a split team iirc. Those '03 Tigers were the worst thing ive ever laid eyes on.  

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