DidiFan

2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

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6 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

He had a terrible start to the 2018 season and recovered by having a smoking hot July. 

Steamers has projected him to have a 95 wRC+  which while not great implies they expect a bit of a bounce back. 

 

He wound up with a 20/20 season which in fantasy terms is still relevant for most of us who are determining how much value he has in 2019.

If you think he doesn't bounce back a little and project an 80 wRC+,  sure - players like that should be jettisoned at some point.

But that's kind of true for any terrible player.   Pujols and Chris Davis are still on rosters and nobody thinks they are going to improve.

 

 

Yeah well I don't know what the Rockies will do. You're right, the Angels havent cut Pujols and the Orioles havent cut Davis. I think both those teams eventually cut those guys before their contract is up.  We saw it happen with Tulo.

 

Any hitter who gets a lot of starst in Colorado is going to probably be a useful fantasy player, that's kind of a separate issue from what I'm saying.

 

A 95 WRC+ guy at 1b with below average defense is a bonafide scrub who should not be starting.  If the Rockies are competing, then I expect them to land a better option than that in the outfield at some point, because that's a very low bar. He's a guy who can hit lefties ok,  not that good, just decently.  He shouldn't be a major leaguer IMO. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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15 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

For a guy that's one amazing year and the rest mostly good, then yeah. Whoever signs Harper is gambling that he sustains excellence. His current reputation of excellence is partially a mirage. 

Yup-  I'm one that thinks Harper is overrated. Yes a very good player but hasn't put together 3-4 or 5 years . Take out that one huge season and what do you have ? Pretty much Adam Dunn but in the outfield. And Dunn did it year after year.

To me Harper is a better real life player. In fantasy hes a 3 cat guy. Is that worth a top five pick ? So many 100/30/100 players that won't get anywhere near what Harper is asking for.

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12 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I kind of agree but you have to realize that he just now turned 26. He hasn't played 1 game of professional baseball as a 26 year old. His 162 game career average is 32 homers and .279/.388/.512

 

Simply incredible. You are getting this guy with the reasonable expectation we haven't seen his sustained best. 

 

JDM, at age 30, signed 5/110 (higher aav first 2 years then he has an opt out). Harper is 4 years younger, and JD carried PLENTY of risk before signing (which helps explain the pretty moderate contract).

 

How much teams are willing to gamble on the player Harper becomes is the question. His perception is partially a mirage because he hasn't consistently lived up to the hype, but he was still only 25. He has a 10 WAR season and a 4.7 WAR season in 2 of the last 4 years. The 4.7 came in 111 games, which would have put him around 7 WAR. 

 

It's just interesting because teams will be paying for something they think they will get but haven't necessarily seen. 

 

Also, with WAR (currently) worth about 9/10 per, he needs to return 30 WAR or so over 10 years to justify that. Seems way more than obtainable. Also consider the cost of a WAR rises every year, and contracts are constantly inflating and it makes it a bit easier to see why 10/300 isn't really crazy. 

 

Also, wherever he ends up the pressure is going to be immense. He will be expected to guide that team to the WS, he will be expected to be the best player in the Majors and live up to that big contract. The pressure was already there in Washington but it's going to be so much worse in Philly/NY/Chicago/LA. The media is going to be all over him if he doesn't live up to the expectations. That's a lot of pressure for someone who has had some really good seasons but also some disappointing seasons. This isn't Mike Trout where you know what you're getting. 

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1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:

 

Also, wherever he ends up the pressure is going to be immense. He will be expected to guide that team to the WS, he will be expected to be the best player in the Majors and live up to that big contract. The pressure was already there in Washington but it's going to be so much worse in Philly/NY/Chicago/LA. The media is going to be all over him if he doesn't live up to the expectations. That's a lot of pressure for someone who has had some really good seasons but also some disappointing seasons. This isn't Mike Trout where you know what you're getting. 

He was on the cover of SI as a teenager. I suspect he's used to being under a microscope and having extremely heavy expectations placed on his shoulders. 

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1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:

 

Reported as a 2 year deal for 14-15 million. Looks like they were smart to non tender him at 1 year for 10 or so million. 

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2 hours ago, motown magic said:

Yup-  I'm one that thinks Harper is overrated. Yes a very good player but hasn't put together 3-4 or 5 years . Take out that one huge season and what do you have ? Pretty much Adam Dunn but in the outfield. And Dunn did it year after year.

To me Harper is a better real life player. In fantasy hes a 3 cat guy. Is that worth a top five pick ? So many 100/30/100 players that won't get anywhere near what Harper is asking for.

 

Adam Dunn lol.. come on:)

 

You are forgetting he was also cruising in 2017 before a leg injury cost him the remainder of the season. He had a  .319 avg and over 1.000 OPS, just didn't steal bases.  I would be thrilled to own him in the second round(actually only do auction so I would be happy to own him under $40) but I doubt that would happen.

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I think Bryce Harper is a fantastic player but he has been a fantasy disappointment more years than he hasn't.  If you play in obp, he's been much better.  I would still want my real life team to sign him to a big contract.

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3 hours ago, motown magic said:

Yup-  I'm one that thinks Harper is overrated. Yes a very good player but hasn't put together 3-4 or 5 years . Take out that one huge season and what do you have ? Pretty much Adam Dunn but in the outfield. And Dunn did it year after year.

To me Harper is a better real life player. In fantasy hes a 3 cat guy. Is that worth a top five pick ? So many 100/30/100 players that won't get anywhere near what Harper is asking for.

But how many players in mlb history have the career stats he has by age 25? Has not played a game as a 26 year old yet.  His age with those stats is why he will get the huge contract. If he got a 5 year deal it would mean he is done by 30 years old. Still not old for baseball.

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2 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

My point on Harper is that 300/10 wasn't an insult, imo

 

It's not an insult, but he shouldn't want to sign for that if he could do better, and he should be able to do better. Miguel Cabrera might have had a way better Legacy than Harper at the time, but Miggy signed a deal with 31 Million in AAV that paid him that 31 Million until he turned 40. 

 

Harper's 26, which means that if he signed the exact same deal Miggy signed, he'd be signing it for his age 26-33 Seasons, as opposed to his age 32-40 seasons. So yeah, Miggy was a MUCH better baseball player at the time, but he was MUCH older too. That's the whole point of the Harper market. This opportunity is just incredibly rare. Even Mike Trout because of essentially a 3-year extension will not see Free Agency until the age of 29, where he will turn 30 in that season. 

 

Harper may also not be a finished product. Baseball isn't as physically taxing as football or Basketball, and I think there's a definitive reason that Baseball is a sport that has a good number of late career breakouts. If Charlie Blackmon can have 200 Career PAs and a Career -0.6 WAR at 26 Years Old and have a 6.0 WAR season at 30-31, I don't see why Bryce can't continue to move forward. Let's keep in mind to a large extent you could still classify this as "pre-prime Harper." Harper has plenty of time to improve. 

 

You can always run a baseball franchise "better" by finding appropriate value. Obviously if you can find someone each year that you think can do 85% of Harper's numbers for 35% of the cost, it's worthwhile. To me though, Harper still represents a rare buying opportunity and even with the Ups & Downs of his career, it's rare to ink a 26 YO with 30.7 WAR & an MVP who you didn't have to acquire through massive trade cost. 

 

--Also in terms of that WAR, Fangraphs has Harper at 30.7 through 3957 PAs. That's roughly 4.65 WAR per 600 PAs, and 5.43 WAR per 700 PAs. Most players like Harper I'd project closer to 700 but Harper has dealt with injuries.

--If he averages 4.65 WAR for the next 10 Years, that would be 46.5 WAR.

--A lot of analysts use a roughly 8 Mil per WAR metric. I don't know exactly the math behind it, but it is often used and generally accepted by a good number of Baseball people. Here's a small reddit based discussion I found if anyone is interested.

--If Harper earned 46.5 WAR over the course of a 10 Year contract, by this metric he would deserve to be paid 372 Million. 

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(On phone). I finished that in a hurry, but in essence that’s a rough eval of Harper for me: 10/372. Being healthier can get that evaluation UP for me. And that eval doesn’t take him too deep into his prime that I’m not too worried about a fall off to nothing at 34-35 for a player with an advanced approach. 

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Adam Dunn lol.. come on:)

 

You are forgetting he was also cruising in 2017 before a leg injury cost him the remainder of the season. He had a  .319 avg and over 1.000 OPS, just didn't steal bases.  I would be thrilled to own him in the second round(actually only do auction so I would be happy to own him under $40) but I doubt that would happen.

Why is it so hard to believe Dunn was better than Harper so far ? Take a good look at Dunns stats for his career.

He had four straight years of 40 plus homeruns . Was hurt and only played a handful of games then came back and had two more years of 40 hrs and several of 35 plus. He also had 6 years of 100 RBI and a couple of 90 plus .He had 3 years of 100 plus runs and several upper 80's and 90's. OBP and OPS are very similar.  Harper is a name and Dunn wasn't.

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1 hour ago, motown magic said:

Why is it so hard to believe Dunn was better than Harper so far ? Take a good look at Dunns stats for his career.

He had four straight years of 40 plus homeruns . Was hurt and only played a handful of games then came back and had two more years of 40 hrs and several of 35 plus. He also had 6 years of 100 RBI and a couple of 90 plus .He had 3 years of 100 plus runs and several upper 80's and 90's. OBP and OPS are very similar.  Harper is a name and Dunn wasn't.

 

Youre using few similarities and ignoring large differences. 

 

WAR: Covered Bryce’s WAR above, but his is 30.7 WAR in 3957 PAs. Dunn’s Career WAR is 25.6 (6883 PAs).  

 

Adam Dunn, when everything broke right, hit .267, a career high. Bryce Harper has hit under .270 twice, and as high as .330 in his MVP season. 

 

Dunn’s career K% is 28.6%. Last year Bryce’s K% was 24.7%. Between 2015-2017 it never surpassed 20.1%. 

 

Dunn’s career high OPS was .956. Two of the last four years Harper has an OPS of 1.008 and 1.109. These would have been at the age of about 23 and 25? 

 

So yeah, if you look  at a few small factors you can compare Harper to Dunn. But the comparison begins and ends with taking walks and having power. Maybe you’re not a WAR guy, but saying Harper and Dunn are similar when Harper had more career WAR by 25 is nonsense, IMO. 

Edited by taobball
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19 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I’m saying Harper isn’t that much better than Dunn

And certainly not 250 million better 

 

And I completely rebuffed that. I think that saying “Harper isn’t much better than Dunn” is nonsense. Pure and simple nonsense. 

 

Just my 2 cs.

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One major reason why baseball players salaries are maybe being limited - there are no stars.  IN other sports players are cross media stars and sell tickets based on their off-field stardom.  Baseball players - because MLB is so terrible at marketing it's great players - only really need to be paid based on - purely and coldly -  their on-field production.  

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6 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

One major reason why baseball players salaries are maybe being limited - there are no stars.  IN other sports players are cross media stars and sell tickets based on their off-field stardom.  Baseball players - because MLB is so terrible at marketing it's great players - only really need to be paid based on - purely and coldly -  their on-field production.  

 

Kind of... Bryce Harper jersey sales/memo are likely to be highly significant for whatever team signs him. 

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I like Oakland's pitching approach, medioaker starters for cheeep, and a solid bullpen. Billy Beane has been playing a lot of fantasy baseball. 

 

He emailed me a trade proposal of his soria and treinen for my buehler though, so he's on my list. 

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4 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I like Oakland's pitching approach, medioaker starters for cheeep, and a solid bullpen. Billy Beane has been playing a lot of fantasy baseball. 

 

He emailed me a trade proposal of his soria and treinen for my buehler though, so he's on my list. 

 

I think the Angels have done a decent job of that this offseason as well. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Kind of... Bryce Harper jersey sales/memo are likely to be highly significant for whatever team signs him. 

Not really from what I have read. Anything with the MLB brand gets divided equally by all teams plus the Players Association. Maybe the rules have changed on that but don't believe so.

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Given the nationals financial siutation. Offerng 300mil showed they were very serious.

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32 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Not really from what I have read. Anything with the MLB brand gets divided equally by all teams plus the Players Association. Maybe the rules have changed on that but don't believe so.

 

Fair enough, but regardless of how many direct revenue sources they have, I do think that Bryce Harper, as a marketing tool, will pay itself out as a marketing tool as well, which the OP suggested wasn't a very big deal in this case. I agree that it isn't as direct as, say, the NBA. But I do think that having a huge star on your roster can aide to your financials outside of just the Wins taht come with it. 

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16 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Fair enough, but regardless of how many direct revenue sources they have, I do think that Bryce Harper, as a marketing tool, will pay itself out as a marketing tool as well, which the OP suggested wasn't a very big deal in this case. I agree that it isn't as direct as, say, the NBA. But I do think that having a huge star on your roster can aide to your financials outside of just the Wins taht come with it. 

Only if he goes to a small market team. The huge ones don't need his marketing ability. I mean, Yankees aren't going to get a better tv deal with him, same with dodgers. Some team like the wsox would def. get a boost from someone like him.

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