DidiFan

2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

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12 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Where does his playing time come from then? 

 

8 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Starting 3B

 

7 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Where do you play Donaldson?

 

6 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

3B

 

But where do you play Bryant? 

I mean...

 

Donaldson is a Brave. 

Cabrera is a Ranger. 

They can both play 3B, I suppose. 

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Sorry thought people said he signed with the Braves and I knew that the Rangers were rumored going after him for third base.

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7 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

 

 

 

But where do you play Bryant? 

I mean...

 

Donaldson is a Brave. 

Cabrera is a Ranger. 

They can both play 3B, I suppose. 

I know I could have told him, but he seemed to be a Cabrera expert so I thought he was trolling.

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21 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Where do you play Donaldson?

 

Cabrera is a Texas Ranger. Donaldson is an Atlanta Brave. 

 

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Relief pitchers signing (mostly) bargain deals, Ol Brodie says hold my beer...2 yrs for Justin Wilson

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Padres are in on the Machado talks. Not sure how I feel about this one.... they appear to be a good fit and San Diego would be a nice place to play I’m sure. That lineup with Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Hosmer and whatever outfielders they decide to keep could be pretty solid.

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33 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Relief pitchers signing (mostly) bargain deals, Ol Brodie says hold my beer...2 yrs for Justin Wilson

How is Justin Wilson still in the majors? Good for him. 

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8 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Padres are in on the Machado talks. Not sure how I feel about this one.... they appear to be a good fit and San Diego would be a nice place to play I’m sure. That lineup with Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Hosmer and whatever outfielders they decide to keep could be pretty solid.

I think it's great. Why not hop in?

They have a nice young core, but about that Hosmer deal last year...wooooof

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Athletics landing Marco Estrada. That's a fit made in heaven. 

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39 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Relief pitchers signing (mostly) bargain deals, Ol Brodie says hold my beer...2 yrs for Justin Wilson

 

especially considering the market for other relievers, as you pointed to. Like I get taht Perez is much older. But the difference between 2.5 Million and 10 Million? 

 

And I mean Oliver Perez was just straight-up way better than Justin Wilson last year. Brach getting 3, Perez getting 2.5, Wilson getting 10. It's another small thing, but it just feels already like the one thing you need the most in baseball -- the nose to sniff bargains -- completely alludes Van Wagenen. He needs these players (Lowrie, Wilson, and Cano in particular) to not just perform, but to do so at a considerably high level to justify taking them over similarly talented players who went for much, much less. 

 

Also I haven't gotten into this yet... but like Edwin Diaz IS going to be EXPENSIVE for them. It's part of the reason I don't like the Diaz move. You do get the one year at 550K, but there's very little doubt in my mind if Edwin Diaz puts up anything like last year again, he's going to break the arbitration records for Relief Pitchers. I really don't see it going more than two ways: Either Edwin Diaz pans out, and gets really expensive in arb and trhough contracts, or he doesn't... which is bad for completely different reasons. 

 

Papelbon got the record with 6.25 Million in the first year as a reliever. He had 113 Saves, a 1.84 ERA, and a 10.6 K/9

Edwin Diaz has one more full season. He sits at 109 Saves, a 2.64 ERA, and a 14.18 K/9

 

ERA isn't as great, but projecting a full season of saves and knowing how arbitrators feel about the metric, as well as the trends towards supporting these high-K pitchers, and I think Diaz walks away with records in arbitration if he stays good and healthy pretty much each year. 

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2 hours ago, tywalson said:

Padres are in on the Machado talks. Not sure how I feel about this one.... they appear to be a good fit and San Diego would be a nice place to play I’m sure. That lineup with Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Hosmer and whatever outfielders they decide to keep could be pretty solid.

I think it would be solid move for them if they can get him at a discounted rate. He projects to still be in his prime when their window of contention should be opening. However, I'm not a fan of them trading propsects for Realmuto. They still are going to be pretty bad the next 2 years even if they add him and Machado. I think they need to exercise some patience and  hold onto all of their young talent and hope to compete in a couple of years. If they want to spend some money now, I'd rather see them add some high upside starters or relievers on 1 year deals that are looking to rebuild some value that they could flip at the deadline or maybe extend if they wanted to.

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Yeah more of SD aka "the mystery team" from a few days back:

 

Quote

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres are pursuing Manny Machado.

 

Acee says that the Padres were not initially one of the "mystery teams" in on Machado, but they "became players in the pursuit of Machado a week ago when reports surfaced of a price that was far lower than expected." If San Diego were to land the marquee free agent, they plan to play him at third base. Machado is said to prefer playing shortstop, but he figures to wind up with the highest bidder. The White Sox, Phillies and Yankees are the other teams that have been connected to the superstar infielder.

 

Source: San Diego Union-Tribune      Jan 25 - 2:27 PM

 

I don't think laid back west coast baseball is a good fit for Manny.  He'd do better with the Phils or Yanks.

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The Mets just wasted another 10 million, 5 this season. And their payroll is now a Mets record at 180 million! One thing we can't say this year is that owenership is cheap. I think we're gonna end up saying that the GM sucks! I think the only way they're going to be good is if the rotation holds up health wise and finally shows us all of that potential that we've spent years talking about. Don't hold your breath though. 

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so rumors have it that the Padres are the high bidder as of now (local radio grain of salt) but Manny wants to see a little more commitment to building the roster, which is why the Padres are heavy in pursuit of Realmuto, it could be a both or neither situation, they also want a window to extend JTR.

 

potential pieces discussed to Miami, Hedges/Mejia, Renfroe, Potts, Baez/Morejon

 

if this happens, the Padres lineup by May could be

 

Tatis SS

JTR C

Machado 3B

Reyes LF

Myers RF

Hosmer 1B

Urias/Kinsler 2B

Margot/Franchy CF

 

I like

 

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Aj Preller is such a genius. That big splurge he had few years ago... the Hosmer contract, his W-L record as a GM. His greatness can't be overstated.

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9 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Aj Preller is such a genius. That big splurge he had few years ago... the Hosmer contract, his W-L record as a GM. His greatness can't be overstated.

 

The big splurge was the ownership, hes built the best farm system by a large margin, Hosmer is just a piece

 

he traded James Shields and his 5 ERA for Tatis, nothing else matters

 

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28 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Aj Preller is such a genius. That big splurge he had few years ago... the Hosmer contract, his W-L record as a GM. His greatness can't be overstated.

 

His big splurge didn't hurt the franchise at all. Prove me wrong. 

 

Almost every investment they made was traded away for other prospects. They arguably got a better prospect package FOR Kimbrel than they gave to get him. He's one of the most well connected international scouts in the world and has amazing connections.

 

The Hosmer contract, which is only one year in, is the only negative so far against Preller. Other than that he's basically done exactly what he was brought in to do: continuously added high level, high-upside talent to the organization. 

 

I'm more negative than many on numerous GMs. AJ Preller though deserves most of hte positive reputation he gets. He's done an amazing job building the potential and future of the Padres, and unlike many GMs, I like that he's willing to push chips into the middle of the table a bit more aggressively, when he thinks he's on the cusp. 

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Let's be clear: every GM makes BAD moves. When I bitch about the Mets offseason and BvW, it's because the types of moves he's making concern me because of the VALUES he seems to be looking for. But EVERY GM makes bad moves. Theo Epstein paid Jason Heyward 184 Million dollars the year he won the WS. You could also debate the career of Gleybar Torres, especially with the fact that the Cubs haven't "taken-off" as a dynasty the last two years, for months of Chapman was a mistake. Or taht trading Eloy Jimenez for Jose Quintana was. But Theo Epstein is widely considered the greatest or one of the greatest GMs of all time. 

 

Let's go into Prellerpalooza. 

 

2014-2015 Offseason

Key Additions: 

Matt Kemp

Wil Myers

Justin Upton

Craig Kimbrel

James Shields

Derek Norris

 

Trade Costs:

Joe Wieland

Yasmani Grandal 

Zach Eflin

Jake Bauers

Burch Smith

Rene Rivera

Max Fried

Jace Peterson

Dustin Peterson

Mallex Smith

Carlos Quentin

Cameron Maybin

Matt Wisler

Jordan Paroubeck

RJ Alvarez

Jesse Hahn

41st Comp Pick

 

Contracts:

James Shields 4/75 w/ 5th Year Option

 

Now let's be clear on one thing: When you make moves like this, and you don't win, I'm not going to argue it's a "success." But when you actually look at what they gave up, it really isn't all that much. The 41st Comp pick became Austin Riley. That pick was fairly valuable. Yasmani Grandal is obviously an above average catcher. Mallex Smith is a Speed and Glove CF. There's a couple players that are still interesting, but all-in-all, the San Diego Padres gave up very little prospect capital when you look at the actual names on the sheet.

 

The Shields contract, for the Padres, Prellerpalooza, and analyzing 2015, was not bad. Shields had a 3.91 ERA and over 200 Ks with the Padres in the one year he actually played in San Diego. He was good enough that, when he made the future trade with the White Sox, they took the contract. He earned it in the one relevant year for Preller. 

 

All-in-all, not that bad. 

 

Then you go one year later, specifically in the case of Kimbrel and Shields.

 

Kimbrel, who was acquired for Quentin, Maybin, Wisler, Parubeck, and the 41st, was traded for Manny Margot, Carlos Asuaje, Javier Guerra, and Logan Allen. 

 

Margot, while not particularly impressive, I do believe profiles as a everyday CF and someone who can hold his own with the bat while playing a tough defensive position well and getting 1-2 WAR. Logan Allen is I believe the #76 prospect currently on MLB. 

 

James Shields played one year with a 3.91 ERA and 200 Ks, and midway through 2016 his contract, which became an albatross for the White Sox, was traded away for Fernando Tatis Jr., who is easily the most valuable asset on this entire board, bar none. The current #2 prospect in baseball. 

 

Prellerpalooza only looks bad because, frankly, it was a bit of a failure. But every risk taken in Prellerpalooza was calculated, and the way he recouped value on particularly Shields and Kimbrel more than made up for the mess of the year before. 
 

The Padres haven't made the playoffs with Preller. But they also haven't made the playoffs since 2006, and have made the playoffs twice since 1998. This has been a putrid franchise. Preller has given them an incredible farm and the most hope for a competitive window they've had in a decade. 

 

Don't get me wrong also-- Preller has MASSIVE faults in terms of things like the Drew Pomeranz false-medical data things. But don't doubt the ability to make moves and evaluate talent. His scouting network has done amazing things. 

 

 

Edited by taobball
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6 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

Tao, you forgot one key person 

 

Trea Turner

 

I did lose trea because of that three team bizarre a** trade where for some reason the Rays simply didn’t want the best prospects in the deal and wanted to facilitate them to the nationals 🤷🏼‍♂️.

 

But still, largely recouped value on those moves. His international scouting is elite. 

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