parrothead

Max Muncy 2019 Outlook

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Has to be one of if not the biggest surprise of 2018, the outbreak of one Max Muncy. 

 

Former 41st round pick, really not much of a touted prospect, did not appear on any "lists"...

A couple of stints with the A's netted a batting average under .200 and 5 HR in about 215 at-bats. 

 

Has 1B, 3B eligibility in 20-game leagues, will also have 2B in 10 game leagues. 

 

Are you buying?  he did all that by the way in less than 400 at-bats. 

 

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The damn playing time is the fly in the ointment. 

 

On a Boston sports talk show right after the Series ended they were talking about how they couldn't believe both Muncy and Bellinger weren't playing in every single game and what was wrong with LA that they had Kike Hernandez batting third in their line-up etc.  One of the commentators mentioned that the Dodgers GM is the former Rays GM (I did not know that) and he was a total "analytics by the book" guy so they wondered if something like Muncy sitting was a Dave Roberts call or if the marching orders originated more in the front office and was some official approach.  Because really their line-ups in the World Series seemed totally loopy to me.  Not that I minded this as a Sox fan (heh) but as a fantasy dynasty Muncy owner I mind their approach a lot.

 

Does anyone know more about the situation there?  Because if it is more a front office template that Roberts is forced (or willing) to work within it makes me a little nervous going into 2019.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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[Removed Cool Story] I do wonder how much of this was a "flash in the pan" and not likely to be repeated.  His slumps were long and then he got scorching hot.  I wonder if the league figures him out next year and he goes back to being an also-ran.  I just don't know on him.  Hoping to hear from others here.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story -- C'mon guys, let's keep it clean for 2019.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The damn playing time is the fly in the ointment. 

 

On a Boston sports talk show right after the Series ended they were talking about how they couldn't believe both Muncy and Bellinger weren't playing in every single game and what was wrong with LA that they had Kike Hernandez batting third in their line-up etc.  One of the commentators mentioned that the Dodgers GM is the former Rays GM (I did not know that) and he was a total "analytics by the book" guy so they wondered if something like Muncy sitting was a Dave Roberts call or if the marching orders originated more in the front office and was some official approach.  Because really their line-ups in the World Series seemed totally loopy to me.  Not that I minded this as a Sox fan (heh) but as a fantasy dynasty Muncy owner I mind their approach a lot.

 

Does anyone know more about the situation there?  Because if it is more a front office template that Roberts is forced (or willing) to work within it makes me a little nervous going into 2019.

Muncy has decent split numbers, batting average last year was only 10 points less one side than the other and hit for about the same power per at -bat.  They just had a ton of guys they were getting at-bats for down the stretch, splits with guys like Dozier, and they got hot, so I think they rode the hot hand and dance with the girl that brought them, and if that means bat Kike third, then thats what it means.  Personally my season is not ending with Kike Hernandez batting 3rd if Im the manager, but hey...thats just me.  

 

 

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4 hours ago, Gotham_Soldier said:

[Removed Cool Story] I do wonder how much of this was a "flash in the pan" and not likely to be repeated.  His slumps were long and then he got scorching hot.  I wonder if the league figures him out next year and he goes back to being an also-ran.  I just don't know on him.  Hoping to hear from others here.

He was really streaky, he had like 18HR where he hit either 2 in one game OR hit home runs in back to back games, and in one stretch hit a HR in 4-straight.  

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On 10/29/2018 at 3:16 PM, parrothead said:

Has to be one of if not the biggest surprise of 2018, the outbreak of one Max Muncy. 

 

Former 41st round pick, really not much of a touted prospect, did not appear on any "lists"...

A couple of stints with the A's netted a batting average under .200 and 5 HR in about 215 at-bats. 

 

Has 1B, 3B eligibility in 20-game leagues, will also have 2B in 10 game leagues. 

 

Are you buying?  he did all that by the way in less than 400 at-bats. 

 

The eligibility is a big one especially with MI but he didnt ever play vs Leftys.  I'm a fan but not sure where i like him till the picture is more clear 2019. 

 

On 10/30/2018 at 2:33 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

The damn playing time is the fly in the ointment. 

 

On a Boston sports talk show right after the Series ended they were talking about how they couldn't believe both Muncy and Bellinger weren't playing in every single game and what was wrong with LA that they had Kike Hernandez batting third in their line-up etc.  One of the commentators mentioned that the Dodgers GM is the former Rays GM (I did not know that) and he was a total "analytics by the book" guy so they wondered if something like Muncy sitting was a Dave Roberts call or if the marching orders originated more in the front office and was some official approach.  Because really their line-ups in the World Series seemed totally loopy to me.  Not that I minded this as a Sox fan (heh) but as a fantasy dynasty Muncy owner I mind their approach a lot.

 

Does anyone know more about the situation there?  Because if it is more a front office template that Roberts is forced (or willing) to work within it makes me a little nervous going into 2019.

Well the Red Sox have Sale and Price and both muncy and especially Bellinger can strike out a ton. Strikeouts are rally killers especially when you have limited opportunitys. 

 

I didn't think the Dodgers had a legit consistently good lineup . Kemp was hot and just left, muncy and Bellinger were solid but flawed forsure.  No real leadoff hitter I thought. Turner can rake, puig was decent, and machado.

 

I'd say absolutely no way the front office was directing or telling Roberts, a former manger of year and back to back WS appearances how to manage. 

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Seems like if Machado resigns, Muncy will still get more PT than Bellinger next season.  Muncy had a decent postseason relatively speaking, especially compared to Bellinger, plus he can passably play 1st 2nd and even 3rd base or the OF in a pinch. He also is much better against LHP.

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In a shallow league with daily lineup switches, pounce. His per game numbers + a replacement infielder for days he's off will be equivalent to an elite player. In weekly lineup leagues he loses a lot of value.

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12 hours ago, STLSU said:

Seems like if Machado resigns, Muncy will still get more PT than Bellinger next season.  Muncy had a decent postseason relatively speaking, especially compared to Bellinger, plus he can passably play 1st 2nd and even 3rd base or the OF in a pinch. He also is much better against LHP.

That didn't happen this past season despite Muncy being a better hitter. Roberts values Bellingers defensive chops better.

 

Bellinger had a 900 OPS vs Lefties his rookie year. Its not usually smart to make proclamations about a hitters ability vs southpaws on 1 year basis. Usually SSS.  He doesn't have much of a difference in K% vs lefties and batted ball/hard% are nearly the same.

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Is this going to effect Muncy's number of AB's next year?

 

Quote

Dodgers signed INF David Freese to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar contract.

 

Freese also gets the $500,000 from the Dodgers declining his original club option for $6 million, so essentially it's a one-year, $5 million dollar deal for the veteran infielder. The 35-year-old performed well for the Dodgers in the regular and postseason after being acquired from Pittsburgh, and he should be a quality bench option for Los Angeles that gets starts against left-handed pitching.

 

They has Freese playing at 1B some during the World Series  recall and shifting him around with Muncy etc.

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Freese Mashes lefties.  I don't think there's going to be a concrete plan next year, but Max Muncy destroyed RH and LH pitching this year, if he keeps that up, it shouldn't matter too much. Sure Muncy might get a day off here and there because of the Dodgers depth, but if he hits anything close to this year, playing time won't be a problem.

 

The worse news is Streamer projecting him at a 112 WRC+ which is a very steep decline from his 162 this year. If he's more of a 112 WRC+ guy, Dodgers will certainly pick their spots him with him more carefully. 

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

The worse news is Streamer projecting him at a 112 WRC+ which is a very steep decline from his 162 this year. If he's more of a 112 WRC+ guy, Dodgers will certainly pick their spots him with him more carefully. 

 

Steamer is always conservative with their projections. They have 1 player with a +150 WRC+ (Trout). Last year there were 10 (150+ PA).

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On 10/31/2018 at 10:57 PM, Slatykamora said:

That didn't happen this past season despite Muncy being a better hitter. Roberts values Bellingers defensive chops better.

 

Bellinger had a 900 OPS vs Lefties his rookie year. Its not usually smart to make proclamations about a hitters ability vs southpaws on 1 year basis. Usually SSS.  He doesn't have much of a difference in K% vs lefties and batted ball/hard% are nearly the same.

Well he has a gameplan.  Hopefully Belli gets his different swings going next year.  He is developing a "high fastball" swing that is clearly a WIP.  He just did not have the results this season on those pitches and against lefties.  

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Comments from Dave Roberts at Winter Meetings yesterday suggest he will get plenty of ABs at 2B next year. Regaining middle infield eligibility would push him at least a round up my draft board.

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Solid article here on his adjustments before the season...and then his adjustment again to the breaking stuff he was seeing after the AS Break.

https://www.fantraxhq.com/max-muncy-adjustment-2019-outlook/ 

 

Seems to me like a guy who has always had an amazing eye at the plate, which is a great place to start.  Now that he has maxed out his launch angle and exit velo, he could turn in very early round value, especially for a middle infielder....as long as Roberts isn't an idiot and gives him chances to adjust if he struggles a bit.  He has show he has the ability to make them..and be the best hitter on the team.

Edited by tonycpsu

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On 12/12/2018 at 3:32 PM, Mdubb23 said:

Comments from Dave Roberts at Winter Meetings yesterday suggest he will get plenty of ABs at 2B next year. Regaining middle infield eligibility would push him at least a round up my draft board.

 

I mean we're looking at a guy who can play 1B every day against RHP, and then if they want to get Freese in against LHP (they should), he can play 1B or 3B and Muncy can float 1B, 3B, 2B as needed.  I think he gets a ton of AB's in the heart of the order.

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He could be in for a huge year, 2b eligibility makes him very valuable. Could be a top 5 second baseman 

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8 hours ago, rhg1084 said:

He could be in for a huge year, 2b eligibility makes him very valuable. Could be a top 5 second baseman 

^^THIS.^^

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what is the risk concern of Muncy losing games against left handed pitcher or being platooned?

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On 2/25/2019 at 7:57 AM, Golden Spikes said:

for some reason the Dodgers seem to think Kiki Hernandez needs lots of AB's

Makes sense to me.  He's got great hands at the plate and keeps improving every year.  30 HR upside with full time ABs.

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

what is the risk concern of Muncy losing games against left handed pitcher or being platooned?

 

I don't think there is much risk besides standard days off. He didn't really give anything up against LHP last year:

image.thumb.png.ec437258639d054d25e4fc091bb9df02.png

That could change if he struggles but its not an issue yet. The bigger problem is Dodgers propensity to rotate guys in general, which moreso will handcuff Muncy than any platoon.

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

Makes sense to me.  He's got great hands at the plate and keeps improving every year.  30 HR upside with full time ABs.

I would bet anyone here that Kiki will NOT get 30 HR's in 2019. Any amount  lol

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