Flyman75

Franmil Reyes 2019 Outlook

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So then is Renfore is out? I believe him to be a better hitter than Renfore, but lets say you draft him. Will you hold if hes  getting benched 2x every week? In the games hes not starting he will be the priority PH id bet at least.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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I'll take a shot on him at his current draft prices. He could be a Jose Martinez type where the situation uncertainty drives his price down, but if he produces like he can he will grab a starting spot and keep it. It would be surprising to see him not get a large portion of the playing time. But at these prices, even if he's playing every 2 out of 3 games from the beginning he's worth a gamble. Most players ranked around him are just so "meh" you are better off with the gamble here.

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RotoChamp has Franmil as a starter for SD and getting more than 500 AB. 

RosterResource has Franmil in AAA. 

LOL...wide-ranging opinions. 

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On 2/4/2019 at 6:59 PM, meh2 said:

I'd give the odds of San Diego signing Harper at 5% and the odds of a Machado signing at 1%. Franmil will be in the opening day starting lineup, imo.

 

Oh, and Franmil's ADP just got bumped up a round or so: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-most-dangerous-hitter/

This didn’t age well. I look forward to the Padres signing Harper now and Franmil starting in Triple A.

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This is going to be interesting. Now when/if Myers gets hurt, that opens up LF for either Renfroe or Reyes, but as of now it's going to be either-or. 

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He needs a trade (himself or someone else) and the team needs to make one as well for a starting pitcher. It's possible we see something happen during or at the end of spring when teams form their final rosters and have a roster crunch/need.

Very difficult to gauge for drafts happening early due to the early MLB season start in Japan.

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19 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

He needs a trade (himself or someone else) and the team needs to make one as well for a starting pitcher. It's possible we see something happen during or at the end of spring when teams form their final rosters and have a roster crunch/need.

Very difficult to gauge for drafts happening early due to the early MLB season start in Japan.

 

A package to Toronto for Stroman or Sanchez seems possible.

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The problem is the amount of groundballs he hits.  While he has the power for 40HR, I think he is more of 25-30 HR tops right now.  He is not dissimilar to Domingo Santana (except with an extra 50 pounds on that frame.)  I think something similar to Domingo's 2017 without the steals is the best projection I could give him right now, and even then Domingo had a good homepark for dingers.

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7 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

The problem is the amount of groundballs he hits.  While he has the power for 40HR, I think he is more of 25-30 HR tops right now.  He is not dissimilar to Domingo Santana (except with an extra 50 pounds on that frame.)  I think something similar to Domingo's 2017 without the steals is the best projection I could give him right now, and even then Domingo had a good homepark for dingers.

Petco is a good hitters park for RH bats

 

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6 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

No, it's a pitcher park through and through. 

Miller is a hitter park by contrast as well.

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&teamid=0&season=2017

Petco was 13th for hitters last year, and even more so for RH, its a RH pull hitters dream

also when you look at park factors, you also have to look at the crappy lineup of hitters the Padres have trotted out there the last decade

Edited by Golden Spikes

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13 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

Petco was 13th for hitters last year, and even more so for RH, its a RH pull hitters dream

also when you look at park factors, you also have to look at the crappy lineup of hitters the Padres have trotted out there the last decade

I just posted the link showing you it's not a hitter park, it's a pitcher park, always has been. And no, the Padres lineup doesn't matter when calculated as a true park factor, unlike ESPNs garbage stat.

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16 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I just posted the link showing you it's not a hitter park, it's a pitcher park, always has been. And no, the Padres lineup doesn't matter when calculated as a true park factor, unlike ESPNs garbage stat.

so cause you chose Fangraphs its the best, I see nothing wrong with ESPNs actual stats, thats what I prefer to look at, I don't like imaginary factors

you have to look at a lot of things, dont get me wrong, another thing is the Padres have more day and 5pm games this year than ever before, that will increase offense as well

Edited by Golden Spikes

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3 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

Petco is a good hitters park for RH bats

 

 

46 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

Petco was 13th for hitters last year, and even more so for RH, its a RH pull hitters dream

also when you look at park factors, you also have to look at the crappy lineup of hitters the Padres have trotted out there the last decade

Where are you getting this? SD is not a good place to hit HR's. Even on ESPN, the site you mentioned, the HR factor was below average last year. Certainly not any hitters "dream".

 

Also the last point you make is nonsense. You don't have to factor in the Padre's lineup at all. Park factors are not influenced by which ball parks have a home team with a good or bad offense. That would defeat the entire purpose of park factors.

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34 minutes ago, cs3 said:

 

Where are you getting this? SD is not a good place to hit HR's. Even on ESPN, the site you mentioned, the HR factor was below average last year. Certainly not any hitters "dream".

 

Also the last point you make is nonsense. You don't have to factor in the Padre's lineup at all. Park factors are not influenced by which ball parks have a home team with a good or bad offense. That would defeat the entire purpose of park factors.

I am looking at the Padres hitters

RH

Renfroe 13 hrs home, 13 away

Reyes 8 home, 8 away

Villanueva 12 home, 8 away

Myers 6 home, 5 away

Hedges 5 home, 9 away

its much more neutral to RH hitters than it ever has been

Padres pitchers gave up 91 homers at home, 94 on the road

Padres hitters had a 692 OPS at home and a 673 on the road

all I am trying to get at is Petco isn't as much of a pitcher park as it used to be

also I am going by the definition of Park Factor which does indeed factor in the teams that play there according to this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_park_factor

 

Edited by Golden Spikes

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Neutral is not a hitter's dream. You're kind of back pedaling now.

Edited by cs3
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10 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

so cause you chose Fangraphs its the best, I see nothing wrong with ESPNs actual stats, thats what I prefer to look at, I don't like imaginary factors

you have to look at a lot of things, dont get me wrong, another thing is the Padres have more day and 5pm games this year than ever before, that will increase offense as well

I say ESPN's "park factors" are crap because they aren't actual park factors, they are just stadium splits. They are not an actual park factor. 

The best in the business,  IMO, is ParkFactors.com ... They don't have L/R splits listed (the reason I used FG) but they do rank SD as extreme pitcher http://www.parkfactors.com/SD

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The park nowadays is more neutral.  The primary factor for it always being pitcher friendly was the wind.

2013 the walls were moved in, which had an impact but still made the park overall still pitcher friendly.

2015 they added the giant TV and newer construct around the stadium had an impact noted by the players that balls seem to carry out better.  The most recent statistics support this.

As I noted originally, it isn't really a hitters park, but I wouldn't be surprised if its now closer to being a middle of the road stadium.

 

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7 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

The park nowadays is more neutral.  The primary factor for it always being pitcher friendly was the wind.

2013 the walls were moved in, which had an impact but still made the park overall still pitcher friendly.

2015 they added the giant TV and newer construct around the stadium had an impact noted by the players that balls seem to carry out better.  The most recent statistics support this.

As I noted originally, it isn't really a hitters park, but I wouldn't be surprised if its now closer to being a middle of the road stadium.

 

I've posted 2 park factor links that show it is still a pitchers park... do any of you guys care to post actual sources of park factors that say it's good for RH power or a neutral park? 

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Could any of these park factors have anything to do with the fact that this club has fielded fecal lineups for going on a decade?

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