Slatykamora

Tommy Pham 2019 Outlook

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Let the hype machine begin!  Fully expect this guy to get lots of pub/ADP riser. 

 

Flashes all fields power and level approach. Someone who should maintain high BABIPs. Poor mans RH Yelich.

 

Not the same ball park/team advantage, or track record/pedigree. Yet, that is the discount type of profile he brings for fantasy. Don't expect him to hit 35 HRs.  Don't expect Yelich to repeat 35 either. Dock some BA for the higher K% also.

 

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Looking back at his TB numbers he put up is really enticing. He doesn't have the track record and has the injury risk is there but the potential is there to reach on him depending on where the hype ends up. 

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19 minutes ago, Ry34No said:

Looking back at his TB numbers he put up is really enticing. He doesn't have the track record and has the injury risk is there but the potential is there to reach on him depending on where the hype ends up. 

The thing I think will help him the most is the batters eye in TB. Busch Stadiums is awful, so are his eyes.

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He really turned thimgs around in Tampa. He's probably comfortable in low pressure situations. I'll be buying at a nice discount this year to fill out my OF. 

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30/20 potential this year?

 

anyone know how much he ran in tampa?

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6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

30/20 potential this year?

 

anyone know how much he ran in tampa?

Rays run.  If he can play 135 games he’ll easily hit 30-20.

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Possible 30/20 100 runs with 400 OBP? If he stays healthy it's going to be a fun year owning this guy. 

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7 hours ago, Ry34No said:

Possible 30/20 100 runs with 400 OBP? If he stays healthy it's going to be a fun year owning this guy. 

Big "if," but agreed.

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30 is a tall order given his very level, all fields approach. His bat has the raw power for 30+ and can crush oppo tacos.

 

Netting big HR totals is just not apart of his game even though his bat has a ton on juice. This also why he is likely going to be one the league leaders in BABIP, however.

Edited by Slatykamora
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12 hours ago, Ry34No said:

Possible 30/20 100 runs with 400 OBP? If he stays healthy it's going to be a fun year owning this guy. 

30 HR seems like a 5-10% outcome at best, might be less, but I guess that might just be a 5-10% chance he stays 100% healthy all year.  Seems like he's destined for a hiccup or two a year and still a productive player. In 5x5, I rather the steals tick up than homers. He stole 25 in 2017 in only 530 PAs.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I heard some talk that the batters eye in TB is really good compared to Busch. Perhaps being in an indoor environment with no sun is helping him considering his eye condition.

 

I'm more of a stats guy, but I somewhat buy into this half-baked theory

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9 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

I heard some talk that the batters eye in TB is really good compared to Busch. Perhaps being in an indoor environment with no sun is helping him considering his eye condition.

 

I'm more of a stats guy, but I somewhat buy into this half-baked theory

Looking at  statcorner.com, it does play better than Busch for RH power, but not by a tremendous amount and still below average

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Looking at  statcorner.com, it does play better than Busch for RH power, but not by a tremendous amount and still below average

 

would you rank pham higher than Dahl and Conforto?

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25 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

would you rank pham higher than Dahl and Conforto?

oh god, that's tough. Maybe Pham-Conforto-Dahl. I think they are all super close and have suffered from injuries. Whoever does best is probably whoever ends up being healthiest out of the 3. I kinda feel like all these guys are studs if they stay healthy. 

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24 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

oh god, that's tough. Maybe Pham-Conforto-Dahl. I think they are all super close and have suffered from injuries. Whoever does best is probably whoever ends up being healthiest out of the 3. I kinda feel like all these guys are studs if they stay healthy. 

 

same thinking here.  you might get Slightly better draft value with dahl and conforto tho, depending on the league maybe just conforto

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24 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

oh god, that's tough. Maybe Pham-Conforto-Dahl. I think they are all super close and have suffered from injuries. Whoever does best is probably whoever ends up being healthiest out of the 3. I kinda feel like all these guys are studs if they stay healthy. 

 

same thinking here.  you might get Slightly better draft value with dahl and conforto tho, depending on the league maybe just conforto

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On 2/14/2019 at 8:32 PM, jfazz23 said:

 

same thinking here.  you might get Slightly better draft value with dahl and conforto tho, depending on the league maybe just conforto

When it comes down to it in fantasy I will always side with the player that can get me 15-20 steals with some pop. So I clearly favor Pham over those two.

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With continued shoulder soreness hoping he feels better. Holding on to him.....for now. If he plays the outfield this week maybe it will be behind him. Searching around for any prior problem with his shoulder I found he had a torn labrum repair in 2011? 2012? Dose it make a difference? He is still an injury risk but.....if he is healthy there is great value.

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3 hours ago, twoseemer said:

With continued shoulder soreness hoping he feels better. Holding on to him.....for now. If he plays the outfield this week maybe it will be behind him. Searching around for any prior problem with his shoulder I found he had a torn labrum repair in 2011? 2012? Dose it make a difference? He is still an injury risk but.....if he is healthy there is great value.

 

hes 10 for 22 this spring.  shoulder seems ok at the dish

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Got him in the 5th. Might have been a reach by a round but I really wanted him. These surface splits are encouraging though and like others mentioned I think the batter's eye is better in TB, and he wont' have to deal with the sun for half his games

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On 3/10/2019 at 12:44 PM, twoseemer said:

With continued shoulder soreness hoping he feels better. Holding on to him.....for now. If he plays the outfield this week maybe it will be behind him. Searching around for any prior problem with his shoulder I found he had a torn labrum repair in 2011? 2012? Dose it make a difference? He is still an injury risk but.....if he is healthy there is great value.

 

He's in the AL now so Rays can play with him at the DH if needed. Only Ji-Man Choi in the way at DH so there is definitely an opportunity there.

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He's in the AL now so Rays can play with him at the DH if needed. Only Ji-Man Choi in the way at DH so there is definitely an opportunity there.

 

Isn’t Choi playing 1B?

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