IlliniGuy76

Kris Bryant 2019 Outlook

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I thought it was pretty clear this past season that his shoulder ailment really derailed lofty fantasy expectations.  I was floored when I heard that he's not going under any sort of scope etc on that shoulder.

 

With that said, I do think he bounces back this season-his ADP certainly will fall and I think many a team will get some pretty good value on Bryant in 2019.

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I was trying to buy low, but I haven't found his value in dynasty to be too depressed. Down a little from last year, but I think most are giving last year a pass.

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I'm avoiding I think. 3B is really deep and good and I'm not taking him as an OF where he probably will be drafted. My 2nd pick being Bryant feels extremely risky.  He may be healthy and win MVP but I'm gonna take my chances else whrre early on. That's a missed pick early that is tough to recover from. 

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As a dynasty owner, I would avoid him for 2019. It's not the injury that worries me, it's the underlying swing/approach change which apparently contributed to the injury. I'm not convinced this guy isn't closer to Rendon rather than a 35-40 HR guy. The ability is in there but the mental side of his game concerns me more than the physical. Hopefully he sorts everything out during the off-season but for now I'm staying away in redraft. 

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I'd consider him in the 3rd but not before, pitchers have adjusted to his huge uppercut swing, he can't do anything with high strikes or low outside, he needs to adjust again

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Even when he was healthy he wasnt that good for the last 2 years now.  Now,with only an offseason of rest,we have no idea what to expect injury wise. Way too risky,and for no reason.  Why gamble hoping for first round value in round 2 when the very real risk is waiver wire level production? Id rather have round 2 upside with round 4 floor types.

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On 11/3/2018 at 8:11 AM, Cesare13 said:

Even when he was healthy he wasnt that good for the last 2 years now.  Now,with only an offseason of rest,we have no idea what to expect injury wise. Way too risky,and for no reason.  Why gamble hoping for first round value in round 2 when the very real risk is waiver wire level production? Id rather have round 2 upside with round 4 floor types.

 

This is the right approach. If your not getting a discount for him, your paying for his upside. Even if he returns to elite form, you are not profiting based on draft slot. Much better upside guys in that range.

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7 hours ago, Saucy said:

 

This is the right approach. If your not getting a discount for him, your paying for his upside. Even if he returns to elite form, you are not profiting based on draft slot. Much better upside guys in that range.

I guess the question is what do most consider a "discount"  - my guess is in most leagues, he will be overdrafted compared to where he should go given the last couple of seasons.  He obviously had a great pedigree coming in, college monster, high ranked prospect, has put up an MVP season, etc.  He is a fan fave, he looks the part and most will find a way to talk themselves into drafting him.  In an auction, he would be one of my first call outs.  

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Good to see Bryant's fantasy owners aren't alone and aren't the only ones annoyed with him.

 

ESPN's Buster Olney reports that the Cubs are open to trading Kris Bryant.

Olney writes that the Cubs "have indicated to other teams they are willing to discuss trade proposals for almost all of the players on their roster, including Bryant." In other words, this is more about the Cubs simply being open-minded about exploring all possibilities rather than them being motivated to trade their star third baseman. It's true that long-term contract talks between the two sides haven't gone anywhere, so Bryant being dealt at some point can't be ruled out. However, he's under team control through 2021, so it seems unlikely he'd be going anywhere anytime soon even as he's coming off a disappointing season.

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Too risky to take in the first five rounds of drafts. 

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On 11/12/2018 at 9:54 AM, B&F said:

Too risky to take in the first five rounds of drafts. 

 

I'd be pretty happy to get him in round 3 if I felt he was healthy to start the season.

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43 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'd be pretty happy to get him in round 3 if I felt he was healthy to start the season.

I would expect that one way or another he will not get past the 3rd round, in a lot of leagues my guess is that he will be a popular pick around the 2-3 turn.  

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Between 16-17 he averaged 33 HR, 293 average, and 7 steals. He's entering his age 27 season. He bats cleanup for a good team in an above average ballpark for righties.

 

Monitor the health in spring training, profit town here.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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On 11/12/2018 at 9:54 AM, B&F said:

Too risky to take in the first five rounds of drafts. 

If you pass on him in the 4th and 5th rounds you're making an even bigger mistake than the other 11 owners just made.

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It's all about the health. His exit velocity dropped big time after the shoulder injury news. 

 

I dont know if an off-season of rest will be enough to cure that shoulder or if surgery is required. But for sure, if bryant is healthy, he should be a 3 rounder. 

 

I still think that his health is in question since shoulders are tricky

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He finished the season pretty strongly though, correct? I need to look at his splits. End of the second round sounds ok with me. 

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On 11/17/2018 at 6:43 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

He finished the season pretty strongly though, correct? I need to look at his splits. End of the second round sounds ok with me. 

not particularly well....

came back on 9/1 and produced the following: .259/.354/.412, 2 HR, 0 SB, 9.1% BB, 32.3% K, 108 wRC+ (with a .385 BABIP)

not horrible, but not 2nd round value, if that was the question/assumption.

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I' m fine with a 3rd round grab. After doing the mock, can't envision taking him 2nd. See too many players who i'd project just as good w/o having to worry about a shoulder issue. You don't gain any profit there and take all the risk.

 

I feel like its the OBP and OPS crowd is saying taking him 2nd because he has a value boost there.

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2 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

not particularly well....

came back on 9/1 and produced the following: .259/.354/.412, 2 HR, 0 SB, 9.1% BB, 32.3% K, 108 wRC+ (with a .385 BABIP)

not horrible, but not 2nd round value, if that was the question/assumption.

Thanks. I thought he performed better as he got further away from his shoulder issue. 

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47 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Man,that line about keeping both hands on the bat to alleviate shoulder pain sounds like the type of  thing that ruins a swings,or messes with your head.  Especially sine he abandoned it.  And re aggravating the injury with practice swings?  Makes you wonder whether game swings will re aggravate it,or maybe he practices less. The “excercises during offseason” part was a little vague.  This is a guy I’m very interested in where I’m projecting he’ll be available but I’ll be very interested in the cubs spring training reports.  

Edited by Cesare13

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Do we know what the specific injury to the shoulder was ? Everything I've read seems to be pretty vague with what the injury actually was, just "shoulder injury".  

Edited by fletch44

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