IlliniGuy76

Javier Baez 2019 Outlook

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WOWSAS!  Did his 2018 breakout REALLY happen.  Continual Gold Glove caliber defense, elite middle of the order run production.  The scary part is after a .290/34/111/21 SB season, he's only going to be 26 going into 2019.  I sense the Cubs are going to make some healthy roster moves with their lineup this offseason, but one of them WON'T be moving Baez.  

 

Low end second round pick in most drafts?

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A .290 30/20 multi positional middle infielder  in a line up that should net him 200 runs/rbi's again as low end second round?    What 20-25 players will put up better numbers than .290 30/20 at any position?   I think a few players get name recognition picks ahead of him, but those are solid round 1 numbers.

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11 hours ago, Khahan said:

A .290 30/20 multi positional middle infielder  in a line up that should net him 200 runs/rbi's again as low end second round?    What 20-25 players will put up better numbers than .290 30/20 at any position?   I think a few players get name recognition picks ahead of him, but those are solid round 1 numbers.

 

I think a lot has to do with his projections into 2019. First the SB, he will more likely around 10 SB than 20. Since August, he only had 2 SB and 6 CS. Then it's the BA, his career average is .267, so a regression is more likely in place for him. The power is legit, but by taken away 20+ SB potential and an average likely around .275, that would probably make him a low end second round. If I were in a redraft league and pick in the middle of the second round, I would grab him for sure.

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I do agree that the average is likely to regress.  However, I think that 20 SB very possible/likely.  He runs anytime/anywhere.  The fact that he had 2 SB and 6 CS isn't a major deterrent to my thoughts.  It simply says that Javy is going to be Javy and keep running no matter what.  Madden encourages him to be aggressive.  That's who he is, and I don't think his approach is going to be any different next season.

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On 11/2/2018 at 10:19 AM, burty1 said:

I do agree that the average is likely to regress.  However, I think that 20 SB very possible/likely.  He runs anytime/anywhere.  The fact that he had 2 SB and 6 CS isn't a major deterrent to my thoughts.  It simply says that Javy is going to be Javy and keep running no matter what.  Madden encourages him to be aggressive.  That's who he is, and I don't think his approach is going to be any different next season.

 

I hope you are right though, I have him on my dynasty, so definitely need him to provide both power and speed.

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Lol last year wasn't even the real prime Javier Baez. I expect him to take it up another notch and put up something like .300-35-25-100-100

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10 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

Lol last year wasn't even the real prime Javier Baez. I expect him to take it up another notch and put up something like .300-35-25-100-100

That would mean his stats would only improve in his average (and steals). But, hitting for average has never been his strength. So, while .300 is possible it's not where I'd expect an improvement. It's his power. That's always been his strength. He's about to turn 26 and is coming off a great year so a slightly lower average in '19 wouldn't be a surprise. Over his prime years, though, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a couple years where he hit something like .285 40 110 125 20.

Edited by dan

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I took him at 2.5 in our rotoworld mock.  Wanted to a potential 5 category guy with my early picks.  His eligibility is a plus,  like later on I’ll have a choice of filling one of several positions instead of being pigeon holed into finding say just a 3b.  It’s not the reason to draft him, but it’s something.  

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I’ve been seeing quite a bit of hate for Javy lately. Reading these old posts from the Fall are refreshing. He once again threw common analytics to the waste side and performed at an MVP level while posting horrendous chase rates and seeing about 3 pitches per AB. Does anyone see him really regressing that badly this year? I could certainly see him posting a Lindor-esque season of .275/38hr/25sb which would bring back easy 1st round returns.

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2 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

I'd take him if he was going in the 4th round but the 2nd is too much risk for me. 

Why would you not take him in the 2nd or 3rd? Even if his AVG falls to .270 or so he’s putting up elite HR + SB at 2B, SS, 3B in most leagues. I feel like people are over reacting to some of these articles that people are posting screaming for regression in his average.

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15 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Why would you not take him in the 2nd or 3rd? Even if his AVG falls to .270 or so he’s putting up elite HR + SB at 2B, SS, 3B in most leagues. I feel like people are over reacting to some of these articles that people are posting screaming for regression in his average.

I looked over the rankings again. I would take him in the third. I'd be ok if he came to me in the second but I prefer some of the others like goldy Machado etc. in the second.

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big regression candidate, and pretty expensive. good player but i'd avoid at a 2nd round price

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3 hours ago, tywalson said:

Why would you not take him in the 2nd or 3rd? Even if his AVG falls to .270 or so he’s putting up elite HR + SB at 2B, SS, 3B in most leagues. I feel like people are over reacting to some of these articles that people are posting screaming for regression in his average.

 

1 hour ago, fawkes_mulder said:

big regression candidate, and pretty expensive. good player but i'd avoid at a 2nd round price

 

Because that's not the real fear. The real fear is an awful pitfall. 

 

I mean, let's look at (arguably) the two best seasons by Plate Discipline Deficient in the last two years, and the years that followed them:

 

(I'll use anonymous names for some intrigue)

 

Player 1

2016: .271 BA, 33 HRs, 14 SBs, 89 R, 88 RBI.

2017: .204 BA, 30 HRs, 15 SBs, 79 R, 75 RBI

 

Player 2

2017: .293 BA, 32 HRs, 1 SB, 92 R, 105 RBI

2018: .233 BA, 21 HRs, 1 SB, 61 Rs, 61 RBIs

 

If it isn't all too obvious, both players are second baseman, with the former being a Texas Ranger, and the latter spending last season between Baltimore and Milwaukee. 

 

I don't care if someone goes 40/40. If the EYE is bad, and he hasn't done it for 10 years straight like Adam Jones back before decline set in, then I'm not going to invest a second round price.

 

And you (ty) mentioned Advanced Analytics earlier. This does have some part to do with being numerical and analytical. But it also has to do with being practical in my mind. Joey Votto is an incredibly patient hitter, and as such is selective at what he is and is not swinging at, and by having a good eye at the plate, has greatly influenced the pitches he has hit throughout hit career. When you have an eye that is as poor as Javier Baez's, you do not have that ability. You have far less control over the pitches you are choosing to swing at and make contact with. Javier Baez surrenders his ability to choose the type of pitch he wants to swing at because of the way he approaches the plate. On paper, he is easier to execute against if you're commanding your pitches and hitting spots. And that influence pitchers will have on the pitches Baez is swinging at is ultimately the reason I'm not interested in the second round, just like I wasn't interested in Odor or Schoop after their big years. I KNOW how good Baez is when he swings at 100 GOOD pitches, but what if the pitches he flails at this year *happen* to be worse than the year before. I don't know that he gets as many good pitches, or as many pitchers failing to execute, and when you surrender so much control of what you're going to swing at to the pitcher, it makes you easier to abuse. 

 

I'm a Cubs fan. I love watching Javier Baez play baseball. And I'll love watching him play baseball in the MLB, but I won't be watching him play on my fantasy team this year. I need a MUCH larger sample to simply believe he can CONTINUOUSLY avoid this pitfall. 

Edited by taobball
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Everything under the hood with Baez says that last season was likely his ceiling as a hitter.  On the other hand, you can get Bregman or Machado for the same price, players whose ceilings likely haven't been reached yet.  I love players like him in fantasy because they draw in managers who overpay, leaving good value to be had in the process.

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53 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

Because that's not the real fear. The real fear is an awful pitfall. 

 

I mean, let's look at (arguably) the two best seasons by Plate Discipline Deficient in the last two years, and the years that followed them:

 

(I'll use anonymous names for some intrigue)

 

Player 1

2016: .271 BA, 33 HRs, 14 SBs, 89 R, 88 RBI.

2017: .204 BA, 30 HRs, 15 SBs, 79 R, 75 RBI

 

Player 2

2017: .293 BA, 32 HRs, 1 SB, 92 R, 105 RBI

2018: .233 BA, 21 HRs, 1 SB, 61 Rs, 61 RBIs

 

If it isn't all too obvious, both players are second baseman, with the former being a Texas Ranger, and the latter spending last season between Baltimore and Milwaukee. 

 

I don't care if someone goes 40/40. If the EYE is bad, and he hasn't done it for 10 years straight like Adam Jones back before decline set in, then I'm not going to invest a second round price.

 

And you (ty) mentioned Advanced Analytics earlier. This does have some part to do with being numerical and analytical. But it also has to do with being practical in my mind. Joey Votto is an incredibly patient hitter, and as such is selective at what he is and is not swinging at, and by having a good eye at the plate, has greatly influenced the pitches he has hit throughout hit career. When you have an eye that is as poor as Javier Baez's, you do not have that ability. You have far less control over the pitches you are choosing to swing at and make contact with. Javier Baez surrenders his ability to choose the type of pitch he wants to swing at because of the way he approaches the plate. On paper, he is easier to execute against if you're commanding your pitches and hitting spots. And that influence pitchers will have on the pitches Baez is swinging at is ultimately the reason I'm not interested in the second round, just like I wasn't interested in Odor or Schoop after their big years. I KNOW how good Baez is when he swings at 100 GOOD pitches, but what if the pitches he flails at this year *happen* to be worse than the year before. I don't know that he gets as many good pitches, or as many pitchers failing to execute, and when you surrender so much control of what you're going to swing at to the pitcher, it makes you easier to abuse. 

 

I'm a Cubs fan. I love watching Javier Baez play baseball. And I'll love watching him play baseball in the MLB, but I won't be watching him play on my fantasy team this year. I need a MUCH larger sample to simply believe he can CONTINUOUSLY avoid this pitfall. 

What sample size are you needing to see? He’s been solid his entire professional career with thousands of at bats.

 

Not every hitter must have the same approach as Votto to be successful. Does it *typically* lend to better results? Yes, 100%. However, Baez happens to be an anomaly. He’s improved his ISO every year in the majors and has maintained his agrressive approach without fail. 

 

I understand if people are taking Machado, Bregman, etc over him and I would too. But passing on him until the 4th round is laughable to me. He’s a near lock for 45+ HR/SB with room for much more. Even Steamer is projecting him to hit near .270 and they’re as conservative as they come. A 2B hitting .270 with 30+hr and 15+Sb in one of the best lineups in baseball is an elite asset. And I think that’s his floor this year.

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1 hour ago, tywalson said:

What sample size are you needing to see? He’s been solid his entire professional career with thousands of at bats.

 

Well let's see.

 

Comparing the three 2nd Baseman we were comparing before:

 

Rougned Odor before 2017: 1519 PAs

Javier Baez current: 1912 PAs

Jonathan Schoop before 2018: 2139 PAs

 

So I think Baez is clearly in the same range as those two players.

 

IN terms of what I want the sample to be? The number really isn't in PAs. It is in Seasons. Baez may have a lot of PAs, but he really only has one every-day type season under his belt. I think there's something aobut the continuation of the everyday player especially when it comes to pitchers getting used to them that I care about how many years. If I'm giving it a simple rule, three full years. I'll have Baez higher next year if he has a great year. I'll buy in if he does it for three years straight. 

 

In terms of using Steamer, I don't debate or argument points involving Steamer. I can't argue a projection system that can't defend itself.

 

All the arguments you're using against me were pretty similar to the ones I heard particularly for Rougned Odor. They aren't new to me. 

 

This is plain and simple a difference of opinion. I believe you are focusing far too much on one season and using it as a defense of opinion. Coming into last year, he had a .255 BA, .300 OBP, .427 SLG, along with 22 HRs / 13 SBs per 600 PAs. That's not a top 50 player. 

 

I'm not ignoring last year. Before last year I had Baez burried in my rankings. Using my rankings the last few years as a guide, I'm higher on Baez than I was on Odor or Schoop. But still around top 50. Not top 24 or top 36. He's moved up more /as much as than maybe anyone season to season in my eyes. 

1 hour ago, tywalson said:

A 2B hitting .270 with 30+hr and 15+Sb in one of the best lineups in baseball is an elite asset. And I think that’s his floor this year.

 

And I just don't think that is close to his floor. I think hitting less than .270 or fewer than 30 HRs is WELL within the realm of possibilties. I mean hell, his career BA might still be under .270. 

 

Ultimately, I think we should also lose the overall word "GOOD" or the like when dealing with this argument. As you say:

 

4 hours ago, tywalson said:

Not every hitter must have the same approach as Votto to be successful. Does it *typically* lend to better results? Yes, 100%. However, Baez happens to be an anomaly

 

Which is absolutely true. But certain approaches, as you also allude to, produce successful results more often. But as I said, let's ignore the concept of "good" or "success." Even if Baez is an incredibly successful player for the rest of his CAREER, I still don't know that I see him as someone I'd expect to have an overwhelming amount of "Consistency." These types of hitters are prone to a bit more variability, and a hitter with a high variability from season to season is not someoen I want in the second round. 

 

And it's that variability that is ultimately why I need three years. 

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Well let's see.

 

Comparing the three 2nd Baseman we were comparing before:

 

Rougned Odor before 2017: 1519 PAs

Javier Baez current: 1912 PAs

Jonathan Schoop before 2018: 2139 PAs

 

So I think Baez is clearly in the same range as those two players.

 

IN terms of what I want the sample to be? The number really isn't in PAs. It is in Seasons. Baez may have a lot of PAs, but he really only has one every-day type season under his belt. I think there's something aobut the continuation of the everyday player especially when it comes to pitchers getting used to them that I care about how many years. If I'm giving it a simple rule, three full years. I'll have Baez higher next year if he has a great year. I'll buy in if he does it for three years straight. 

 

In terms of using Steamer, I don't debate or argument points involving Steamer. I can't argue a projection system that can't defend itself.

 

All the arguments you're using against me were pretty similar to the ones I heard particularly for Rougned Odor. They aren't new to me. 

 

This is plain and simple a difference of opinion. I believe you are focusing far too much on one season and using it as a defense of opinion. Coming into last year, he had a .255 BA, .300 OBP, .427 SLG, along with 22 HRs / 13 SBs per 600 PAs. That's not a top 50 player. 

 

I'm not ignoring last year. Before last year I had Baez burried in my rankings. Using my rankings the last few years as a guide, I'm higher on Baez than I was on Odor or Schoop. But still around top 50. Not top 24 or top 36. He's moved up more /as much as than maybe anyone season to season in my eyes. 

 

And I just don't think that is close to his floor. I think hitting less than .270 or fewer than 30 HRs is WELL within the realm of possibilties. I mean hell, his career BA might still be under .270. 

 

Ultimately, I think we should also lose the overall word "GOOD" or the like when dealing with this argument. As you say:

 

 

Which is absolutely true. But certain approaches, as you also allude to, produce successful results more often. But as I said, let's ignore the concept of "good" or "success." Even if Baez is an incredibly successful player for the rest of his CAREER, I still don't know that I see him as someone I'd expect to have an overwhelming amount of "Consistency." These types of hitters are prone to a bit more variability, and a hitter with a high variability from season to season is not someoen I want in the second round. 

 

And it's that variability that is ultimately why I need three years. 

Our valuation of him isn’t even that far off - maybe about a round? And I agree with some of your points and the logic to get there. 

 

From my perspective, even if he hits .260 this year, his power, speed, lineup, and lineup positioning will make him a hugely valuable asset. Worth a second rounder? Possibly not, but certainly within the top 50 as you mentioned. I just don’t see this epic fall from grace where he suddenly becomes a .210 hitter like Odor and Schoop. He’s simply too talented of a hitter and has been for his entire career. What if he becomes a bit more selective this year and chooses more GOOD pitches to hit? I think he even has upside on what he did last year like I mentioned above. 

 

Anywho, he figures to be a polarizing player in 2019. I guess my stance is there’s no way he’s slipping to the 4th round in any of my leagues and he’s a slight risk worth taking.

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28 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Our valuation of him isn’t even that far off - maybe about a round? And I agree with some of your points and the logic to get there. 

 

From my perspective, even if he hits .260 this year, his power, speed, lineup, and lineup positioning will make him a hugely valuable asset. Worth a second rounder? Possibly not, but certainly within the top 50 as you mentioned. I just don’t see this epic fall from grace where he suddenly becomes a .210 hitter like Odor and Schoop. He’s simply too talented of a hitter and has been for his entire career. 

 

In terms of lineup, lineup positions fluctuate, and when you project (as I likely will/do) a sub-.300 OBP, you’re liable to move down if you have a blistering cold stretch. 

 

In terms of hitting .260... look you could be right that’s NOT the debate here. The debate is CONFIDENCE. I don’t build confidence in players that have literally no batters eye very fast. And I’ve said this before— but if you don’t think EVERY WORD you’re saying was hammered at me two years ago when I knocked Odor down after his great year. “He’s too talented / Small sample? Has 1000+ PAs! Sure the BA might go down, but his power + speed combo is still great.”

 

Baez hitting .220 is in my realm of possibility. His eye is s--- and he could follow up one positive outlier with a negative one. 

 

36 minutes ago, tywalson said:

What if he becomes a bit more selective this year and chooses more GOOD pitches to hit? I think he even has upside on what he did last year like I mentioned above. 

 

How can you not apply a similar logic to anyone. What if Buxtons hit tool went from putrid to simply below average this year? What if Jeff McNeil had 25-30 HR power? 

 

I dont pay for improvements, and I especially don’t pay for improvements in the top 50 picks. I don’t like when arguments even say “well he could improve.” Eh... so could so many others. 

 

To be clear, I don’t think I’m GETTING him in the 4th or 5th round. I’m just passing on him all together in prettt much all league formats because I don’t see the reward worth the risk at his price range. 

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15 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

In terms of lineup, lineup positions fluctuate, and when you project (as I likely will/do) a sub-.300 OBP, you’re liable to move down if you have a blistering cold stretch. 

 

In terms of hitting .260... look you could be right that’s NOT the debate here. The debate is CONFIDENCE. I don’t build confidence in players that have literally no batters eye very fast. And I’ve said this before— but if you don’t think EVERY WORD you’re saying was hammered at me two years ago when I knocked Odor down after his great year. “He’s too talented / Small sample? Has 1000+ PAs! Sure the BA might go down, but his power + speed combo is still great.”

 

Baez hitting .220 is in my realm of possibility. His eye is s--- and he could follow up one positive outlier with a negative one. 

 

 

How can you not apply a similar logic to anyone. What if Buxtons hit tool went from putrid to simply below average this year? What if Jeff McNeil had 25-30 HR power? 

 

I dont pay for improvements, and I especially don’t pay for improvements in the top 50 picks. I don’t like when arguments even say “well he could improve.” Eh... so could so many others. 

 

To be clear, I don’t think I’m GETTING him in the 4th or 5th round. I’m just passing on him all together in prettt much all league formats because I don’t see the reward worth the risk at his price range. 

He’s a career .274 hitter. To project him to possibly hit .220 and also not have any hope of improvement is illogical. Especially for a player with his physical tools and pedigree. He’s a better talent than Odor and Schoop. Just because they regressed does not immediately mean that Baez will suffer a similar fate. 

 

The logic you apply to him improving (with over exaggerated comparisons) could also be made for your proposed downfall. “I’m not drafting Acuna because he could hit .220 this year.” What good does that do? Like you said - how can you not apply a similar logic to anyone? 

 

The case for improvement is that he is growing into his prime at 26 and has been a better player every season in his professional career. Look at his ISO trajectory. It’s not just randomly saying that a guy who went from an unpredictable player to MVP runner up has a possible next level. You’re digging too far into the comparisons of Odor and Schoop. 

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4 minutes ago, tywalson said:

He’s a career .274 hitter. To project him to possibly hit .220 and also not have any hope of improvement is illogical. Especially for a player with his physical tools and pedigree. He’s a better talent than Odor and Schoop. Just because they regressed does not immediately mean that Baez will suffer a similar fate. 

I never said he doesn't have hope for improvement. I said I don't pay for improvement especially in the top 50-100 picks. Paying for improvement or career years is tops on my fantasy sins board.

 

The last point is not at all the implication. Again projection has a lot more to do with a RANGE of expectation and not an individual expectation. I think Baez COULD repeat 2018. But I also believe that having terrible pitfalls due to his approach are still on the table. 2018 has given you enough confidence to narrow your range of viewing so that you believe he will put up consistent year-to-year stats with a high floor. It has not had remotely teh same effect on me. 

 

6 minutes ago, tywalson said:

The logic you apply to him improving (with over exaggerated comparisons) could also be made for your proposed downfall. “I’m not drafting Acuna because he could hit .220 this year.” What good does that do? Like you said - how can you not apply a similar logic to anyone? 

 

There's a few leaps in logic here. Firstly, the word "improving" is probably wrong here. What I need to use is "change." If Baez had a better batting eye in 2019, that is a change. I do not bet on change.

 

There is also "assessment" on the individual that goes into this a lot. I don't believe it is a "change" to have .220 still in the realm of possibilities for Baez. I've covered that quite clearly. I do not believe this logic can applyto Acuna, who I find to be a much more well rounded, well approached hitter. It obviously could happen, but it's much much further outside of my range of possible outcomes.

 

By saying "how can you not apply a similar logic to anyone," you're almost dismissing my former arguments, implying that my logic for Baez dropping to .220 has nothign more to do than me picking a fish in a barrel and going "YOU." But that's clearly not what's happening here. I've defended why I think Baez is at risk of pitfalls. To be clear-- I'm not upset at this notion or you, but this IS what you are essentially saying. The difference between my take, and your faulty Acuna take, is that I greatly defended why I believe the former to be in teh realm of possibility.

 

When I compare Baez/Buxton/McNeil, I'm comparing three tools on three players that they have never shown. Baez has never shown a batter's eye. Buxton has never shown an adequate hit tool. McNeil has never shown much power. Which is why I actually don't consider those to be exaggeration examples in the slightest. I looked around the league for putrid tools, and said "What if they improved." There's a logic going into it that you're dismissing, again. 

 

 

12 minutes ago, tywalson said:

The case for improvement is that he is growing into his prime at 26 and has been a better player every season in his professional career. Look at his ISO trajectory. It’s not just randomly saying that a guy who went from an unpredictable player to MVP runner up has a possible next level. You’re digging too far into the comparisons of Odor and Schoop.

 

Again you seem to phrase this argument like it has to do with analytical mathematics. It does not. The word "SELECTive" is used for a reason, because "SELECTive" hitters SELECT the pitches they swing at far more often. Baez does not, and is vulnerable to pitchers executing their spots better. He's easier for me to write a gameplan for. 

 

If you want to buy off peak performance at peak price, go ahead. I will not. And if baez pans outt his year, I'll be very happy as a Cubs fan.

 

But you're ignoring a TOOL, not a NUMBER, a TOOL, that is putrid. And to me it's that simple: you ahve to ignore that tool to like Baez. 

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19 minutes ago, taobball said:

I never said he doesn't have hope for improvement. I said I don't pay for improvement especially in the top 50-100 picks. Paying for improvement or career years is tops on my fantasy sins board.

 

The last point is not at all the implication. Again projection has a lot more to do with a RANGE of expectation and not an individual expectation. I think Baez COULD repeat 2018. But I also believe that having terrible pitfalls due to his approach are still on the table. 2018 has given you enough confidence to narrow your range of viewing so that you believe he will put up consistent year-to-year stats with a high floor. It has not had remotely teh same effect on me. 

 

 

There's a few leaps in logic here. Firstly, the word "improving" is probably wrong here. What I need to use is "change." If Baez had a better batting eye in 2019, that is a change. I do not bet on change.

 

There is also "assessment" on the individual that goes into this a lot. I don't believe it is a "change" to have .220 still in the realm of possibilities for Baez. I've covered that quite clearly. I do not believe this logic can applyto Acuna, who I find to be a much more well rounded, well approached hitter. It obviously could happen, but it's much much further outside of my range of possible outcomes.

 

By saying "how can you not apply a similar logic to anyone," you're almost dismissing my former arguments, implying that my logic for Baez dropping to .220 has nothign more to do than me picking a fish in a barrel and going "YOU." But that's clearly not what's happening here. I've defended why I think Baez is at risk of pitfalls. To be clear-- I'm not upset at this notion or you, but this IS what you are essentially saying. The difference between my take, and your faulty Acuna take, is that I greatly defended why I believe the former to be in teh realm of possibility.

 

When I compare Baez/Buxton/McNeil, I'm comparing three tools on three players that they have never shown. Baez has never shown a batter's eye. Buxton has never shown an adequate hit tool. McNeil has never shown much power. Which is why I actually don't consider those to be exaggeration examples in the slightest. I looked around the league for putrid tools, and said "What if they improved." There's a logic going into it that you're dismissing, again. 

 

 

 

Again you seem to phrase this argument like it has to do with analytical mathematics. It does not. The word "SELECTive" is used for a reason, because "SELECTive" hitters SELECT the pitches they swing at far more often. Baez does not, and is vulnerable to pitchers executing their spots better. He's easier for me to write a gameplan for. 

 

If you want to buy off peak performance at peak price, go ahead. I will not. And if baez pans outt his year, I'll be very happy as a Cubs fan.

 

But you're ignoring a TOOL, not a NUMBER, a TOOL, that is putrid. And to me it's that simple: you ahve to ignore that tool to like Baez. 

Sigh... if you want to go against the reality of his existing production and do not feel “personally” confident in his skill set that he’s consistently shown then there’s nothing that will change that. And of course, you’re completely entitled to that opinion. 

 

I agree to an extent that a higher rate of variability does exist in Baez and he could very well lose up to 30 points from his BA this year. However, I vehemently disagree that we see a fall from grace in the mold of Odor and Schoop that you referenced. I have no issue taking Baez from late second round on this year and I think owners wary of his possible regression will make him a good value as he slides down drafts. 

 

Just remember, Votto has possibly the best eye TOOL in the game and metrics in the sport and put up a .284/12hr/2sb line at 1B last year. Regression is possible in every player but so is improvement. 

 

I would recommend against discounting Baez too greatly.

Edited by tywalson
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28 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Sigh... if you want to go against the reality of his existing production and do not feel “personally” confident in his skill set that he’s consistently shown then there’s nothing that will change that.

 

Again, we just disagree on what is reality in this case. You seem to think you're using less opinion than I am, but you're not. You're just choosing to see different elements as more important, I'm choosing to see different elements as more important. I believe YOU are going against the reality of his existing production and the history of players who don't have great eyes. People try to pigeonhole arguments in all kind of different fashions, but ultimately it just comes down to how each individual sees the sum of the parts. To me, the sum of the parts right now is worth about a top 40-50 pick. 

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With a mid 40's chase rate and an 18% swinging strike rate, Javier will be one of my first nominees in auction drafts. Love this guy as a player but he's a very strong candidate to back slide here. If he learns to take his walks then watch out.

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37 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

With a mid 40's chase rate and an 18% swinging strike rate, Javier will be one of my first nominees in auction drafts. Love this guy as a player but he's a very strong candidate to back slide here. If he learns to take his walks then watch out.

 

That will require Javy to lay off 4 pitches out of the zone ... tough chore.

 

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