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David Dahl 2019 Outlook

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Parra and Cargo gone

 

Opportunity, raw skills and situation are all +++ for a breakout season.  Working against him? Staying healthy, his aggressive approach, the Rockies randomly signing a bunch of vet OFs again.

 

16 HRs and 5 SBs in 271 PAs looks awesome. I'm against pro-rating those stats for a full season. It never seems to work out for young player. The rates regress. He does some pretty bad things like a shade under 50% Chase rate on slides outside the strike zone. The sheer amount of fastballs he swings thru. He's a big sucker for elevated FBs.  That Z-Contact is ugly, his current approach leaves grand canyon holes. Thank god he gets to hit in Coors 50% of the time.

 

When he does make contact, its usually great.  If he can smooth out his really rough edges he has a Matt Kemp kinda vibe. We know how streaky Kemp is, that probably goes with Dahl.

 

Fangraphs   Stacast Profile    Brooks Baseball Pitch Fx

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Dahl finished September hot,  .287/9/27 and was a fantasy asset.   His home/road splits last year were heavily favored towards home games only.

Obviously health issues have kept him from becoming a huge asset.  Batting in the middle of that lineup will probably make him a top 100 player this year.

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I like China Dahl a lot this year, just cross you your fingers he doesn't fall down the stairs or throw out his back carrying his suitcase

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Ridiculously hot streak to end the season probably vaults his numbers to point with his injury history in a straight draft league, Im probably not reaching on him.  

 

He had 5 straight games with a HR and 6 HR in 7 games in the final week of the season.  15RBI in those 6 games.   So if you remove that week, which I think when evaluating players and trying to project there is some value to doing that.  He would of been like 220 at bats, 10HR and like 33 RBI?   Im trying to work more at projecting out these numbers and forgetting the hot week.  Result is probably his ADP will be too rich for my blood, but he would be the type of guy I would call out early in an auction, because I think there will be plenty willing to overpay.  

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In my NL-only I have both Dahl and Tapia at a rock bottom contract. If they both pull a starting job it's cold. Tapia is out of options I think so they may be compelled to let him play too. 

 

Full-time players in Colorado is gold. 

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Dahl seems a lot more valuable than Tapia.. A lot. I wouldn't count on Tapia being a starter if everyone is healthy but it's possible. They'll probably sign someone.

 

Dahl might be a sleeper. Unless you're in a crazy league of guys super duper into baseball, the guys who get hot once fantasy football start often are forgetton. I could see Dahl being good value at his price.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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9 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Dahl seems a lot more valuable than Tapia.. A lot. I wouldn't count on Tapia being a starter if everyone is healthy but it's possible. They'll probably sign someone.

 

Dahl might be a sleeper. Unless you're in a crazy league of guys super duper into baseball, the guys who get hot once fantasy football start often are forgetton. I could see Dahl being good value at his price.

He’s in the low 60s ADP so far in NFBC. I’d bet way against him being much higher once rankings come out.

 

 

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20 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Dahl seems a lot more valuable than Tapia.. A lot. I wouldn't count on Tapia being a starter if everyone is healthy but it's possible. They'll probably sign someone.

 

Dahl might be a sleeper. Unless you're in a crazy league of guys super duper into baseball, the guys who get hot once fantasy football start often are forgetton. I could see Dahl being good value at his price.

The thing is lots of people looks at 1st/2nd half splits and they can read mainstream fantasy articles. 

 

Or non of that and just see he 16 HRs in 271 PAs, and he plays in Coors. That also requires zero attention to baseball. 

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On 12/1/2018 at 9:29 AM, Magoo said:

He’s in the low 60s ADP so far in NFBC. I’d bet way against him being much higher once rankings come out.

 

 

 

thats actually higher than i thought.

 

thought u could get him closer to 100...

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51 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

thats actually higher than i thought.

 

thought u could get him closer to 100...

I  should have said lower ie his ranking won't drop.  I was shocked to see him ahead of Pham.

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He was pretty highly regarded heading into  2017 fantasy drafts (before his preseason injury, that is) so I don’t think his strong 2018 finish is flying under anyone’s radar.  The power/speed/Coors profile will earn him a lot of love; the injury history is the only source of discount.

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In the RW mock going right now, I took him in the 6th round, pick 64 - I would not of expected him to back it back to me for next pick, which was 81. 

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#18 overall OFer in Razzball rankings with projections that are getting my hopes up: 83/30/94/.281/14 in 577 ABs

 

Please stay healthy.

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The hype train is building!  ADP is currently 68.52 on NFBC.  Already pretty high, but if he's looking healthy all spring, that will jump up 10 spots.

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5 hours ago, svdude said:

The hype train is building!  ADP is currently 68.52 on NFBC.  Already pretty high, but if he's looking healthy all spring, that will jump up 10 spots.

Draft Early.....lol

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As much hate as I’ve given him over the years, would it be the biggest shock if by some mircale he stays healthy and is a 2nd or 3rd rounder next season?

 

Even if healthy i just don’t think he’s going to run that much 

 

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2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

As much hate as I’ve given him over the years, would it be the biggest shock if by some mircale he stays healthy and is a 2nd or 3rd rounder next season?

 

Even if healthy i just don’t think he’s going to run that much 

 

 

I agree with you on the stolen bases. 

I think he will chip in about 10 SBs over a full season. I hope it’s more though

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"China Dahl"

 

Absolutely excellent.  Kudos to the dude who came up with that one.  :lol:

 

I just can't invest in Dahl where he's going.  I haven't finalized my research yet but the hype train is likely going to price China Dahl too high for me.  He' such a tease in that park, but the Rockies just leave a lot to be desired from a PT point of view.  It wouldn't surprise me if they reverse course on cargo and Parra being gone in the sense that they add some depth before the season starts and give us all agita all over again.  This kid should play every day but Im concerned with durability and the Rockies MO.  I dont draft till late March so TBD.

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Based on how Dahl ended the 2018 season it looks to me like the Rockies organization will give him full time at bats this year to reach his full potential. 2019 Dahl getting 28+ HR and .290 BA sounds very reachable with 600 PA. Hard not to fall in love with that. His BB% rate is a bit low, but he is young and with additional baseball maturity hopefully he will improve on that too. The excitement is mounting for managers that already have him in keeper/dynasty leagues.

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The Rockies are considering moving Charlie Blackmon to a corner outfield spot.

"We had a discussion about possibly trying different outfield alignments if it meant winning more games for the Rockies, and I was all about winning more games for the Rockies," Blackmon said Saturday. "I think you will see a little bit of mix and match until we figure out exactly what we like, and then you may continue to see versatility from players as the year goes on." If Blackmon were to move, David Dahl would likely see most or all of the time in center. The move wouldn't mean much in most fantasy leagues, but could have a longer-term effect in leagues where exact positions are important. Blackmon rated as a minus defender in most prominent defensive metrics in 2018.
 
 
Source: Rockies.mlb.com
Jan 26 - 11:22 PM
 
Good news for Dahl owners. A move to CF would jump his value even higher in leagues that have specific positions. Currently, Dahl doesn't have CF eligibility in ESPN.
 
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26 minutes ago, BCMarch10 said:

The Rockies are considering moving Charlie Blackmon to a corner outfield spot.

"We had a discussion about possibly trying different outfield alignments if it meant winning more games for the Rockies, and I was all about winning more games for the Rockies," Blackmon said Saturday. "I think you will see a little bit of mix and match until we figure out exactly what we like, and then you may continue to see versatility from players as the year goes on." If Blackmon were to move, David Dahl would likely see most or all of the time in center. The move wouldn't mean much in most fantasy leagues, but could have a longer-term effect in leagues where exact positions are important. Blackmon rated as a minus defender in most prominent defensive metrics in 2018.
 
 
Source: Rockies.mlb.com
Jan 26 - 11:22 PM
 
Good news for Dahl owners. A move to CF would jump his value even higher in leagues that have specific positions. Currently, Dahl doesn't have CF eligibility in ESPN.
 

 

Maybe it's my paranoia but I'd rather they just play Dahl in a corner..less responsibility / chance of getting injured and just let him hit.

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I really want to draft this guy this year but his injury riddled past scares me. I like where he’s ranked right now, roughly 120 in fantasypros, and his risk seems to be baked into his price given the potential he has. It looks like he’s slotted to hit cleanup right now. That’s a loaded lineup in front of him with Blackmon, Murphy, Arenado then Story hitting behind him. Man if this kid can stay healthy he could put up monster numbers. A lot of projections I’m seeing give him around 25 HR, 70ish runs and RBIs, and 10 SBs with around a .270 average. Those are pretty good numbers but most places have him at about 500 plate appearances which I don’t see happening based on his past. Someone convince me otherwise haha. 

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2 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I really want to draft this guy this year but his injury riddled past scares me. I like where he’s ranked right now, roughly 120 in fantasypros, and his risk seems to be baked into his price given the potential he has. It looks like he’s slotted to hit cleanup right now. That’s a loaded lineup in front of him with Blackmon, Murphy, Arenado then Story hitting behind him. Man if this kid can stay healthy he could put up monster numbers. A lot of projections I’m seeing give him around 25 HR, 70ish runs and RBIs, and 10 SBs with around a .270 average. Those are pretty good numbers but most places have him at about 500 plate appearances which I don’t see happening based on his past. Someone convince me otherwise haha. 

 

Ok - Don't try to predict injuries. Guys are injury prone until they're not. If he's completely healthy coming into the year, draft with confidence. 

 

Also, cleanup hitter playing in Coors field. Pick 120 is a steal, I can't imagine him lasting that long in competitive leagues.

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8 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I really want to draft this guy this year but his injury riddled past scares me. I like where he’s ranked right now, roughly 120 in fantasypros, and his risk seems to be baked into his price given the potential he has. It looks like he’s slotted to hit cleanup right now. That’s a loaded lineup in front of him with Blackmon, Murphy, Arenado then Story hitting behind him. Man if this kid can stay healthy he could put up monster numbers. A lot of projections I’m seeing give him around 25 HR, 70ish runs and RBIs, and 10 SBs with around a .270 average. Those are pretty good numbers but most places have him at about 500 plate appearances which I don’t see happening based on his past. Someone convince me otherwise haha. 

 

2 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

Ok - Don't try to predict injuries. Guys are injury prone until they're not. If he's completely healthy coming into the year, draft with confidence. 

 

Also, cleanup hitter playing in Coors field. Pick 120 is a steal, I can't imagine him lasting that long in competitive leagues.

 

agree with truetotheblue, but he isnt going 120 in any competitive league.  probably closer to half that

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