Slatykamora

Victor Robles 2019 Outlook

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Top prospect in line for a full time gig (assuming the Harper re-sign is smoke)

 

Feel to hit is +, speed  is +, somewhere between gap and average power.  Tough to make an accurate MLB projection. Just expect quality BA, somewhere between 15-30 bags and 8-20 HR range. That is just rough guessing, the range is wider.

 

Never doubt the upside guy who made up the minor ranks with extreme age/levels and a plus hit tool. Regardless if the HR/SB don't look super sexy at first glance. 

 

From 2017: Robles possesses off-the-charts athleticism. He has the makings of plus hitter from the right side of the plate, with a compact but explosive swing and a present feel for using the whole field. His power played consistently in 2017 thanks to a more leveraged swing and better pitch selection, and the result was a career-best 10 home runs and 58 extra-base hits across three levels. Robles' approach and strike-zone judgment are also mature, while his tendency to hold his ground in the batter's box has led to high hit-by-pitch totals throughout his career. A plus-plus runner, Robles impacts games with his wheels on the bases as well as in center field, where he has exceptional range and instincts as well as arm strength that's among the best in the Minors at the position.

 

Andrew McCutchen comps have been pretty common here because Robles has a similar build and swing, but from a skillset perspective, Robles looks more like Lorenzo Cain. He’s a likely star and arguably the most polished high-end prospect in baseball.

 

Guys like him often over-achieve their power projections in the long run.

 

Fangraphs Profile    Statcast Profile   Brooks Baseball Pitch Fx

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Rumors are Nats shopping Eaton, which is a signal that Robles will be given every chance to run with starting gig. 

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Posted (edited)

Assuming Eaton is still around opening day, where does Robles project to hit in that lineup assuming Eaton/Trea will be at the top?

 

He's definitely high on my short list of "upside" picks that I want on my team

Edited by street sharks

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I love Robles but his ADP is a bit high for such unproven talent.  NFBC has him at 97, before guys like Turner and Olsen, let alone similarly profiled hitters like Pollock, Hicks, and Brantley.  97 seems high to me for an unproven major league player hitting at the bottom of the order.  I'm not saying Robles won't outperform all those guys, he may, but there's definite risk associated with the pick. 

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Will he be starting opening day? Even if Bryce is back?

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On 11/1/2018 at 10:04 PM, Slatykamora said:

Top prospect in line for a full time gig (assuming the Harper re-sign is smoke)

 

Feel to hit is +, speed  is +, somewhere between gap and average power.  Tough to make an accurate MLB projection. Just expect quality BA, somewhere between 15-30 bags and 8-20 HR range. That is just rough guessing, the range is wider.

 

Never doubt the upside guy who made up the minor ranks with extreme age/levels and a plus hit tool. Regardless if the HR/SB don't look super sexy at first glance. 

 

From 2017: Robles possesses off-the-charts athleticism. He has the makings of plus hitter from the right side of the plate, with a compact but explosive swing and a present feel for using the whole field. His power played consistently in 2017 thanks to a more leveraged swing and better pitch selection, and the result was a career-best 10 home runs and 58 extra-base hits across three levels. Robles' approach and strike-zone judgment are also mature, while his tendency to hold his ground in the batter's box has led to high hit-by-pitch totals throughout his career. A plus-plus runner, Robles impacts games with his wheels on the bases as well as in center field, where he has exceptional range and instincts as well as arm strength that's among the best in the Minors at the position.

 

Andrew McCutchen comps have been pretty common here because Robles has a similar build and swing, but from a skillset perspective, Robles looks more like Lorenzo Cain. He’s a likely star and arguably the most polished high-end prospect in baseball.

 

Guys like him often over-achieve their power projections in the long run.

 

Fangraphs Profile    Statcast Profile   Brooks Baseball Pitch Fx

This might be the best opening post I've ever seen here. The links are such a time saver. Outstanding.

 

Young guys like Robles are inherently a high risk, but a guy him is totally worth it with his combination of speed and hit tool with solid power in an era where stolen bases are so hard to come by for category leagues. Outfield is a relatively easy position to find during the year should you miss on a draft pick so I'd be okay rolling the dice on him. Around pick 97 as you stated, just make sure you build it into your draft plan and don't gamble too much on other picks that early.

Edited by StevieStats

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22 hours ago, rhg1084 said:

Will he be starting opening day? Even if Bryce is back?

 

As a Robles owner, I hope so, but seems unlikely. Would take a trade or injury of/to Eaton to clear a path I think.

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3 minutes ago, paintingtheblack said:

 

As a Robles owner, I hope so, but seems unlikely. Would take a trade or injury of/to Eaton to clear a path I think.

I am inclined to utterly disagree. The sentiment that Michael Taylor is blocking anyone seemed to be discredited when Soto got the PT that he did last year. The OF is looking like Eaton/Soto/Robles going forward, and the only thing that could keep Robles down(aside from resigning Harper or another OF piece this offseason) would be service time concerns.

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33 minutes ago, jbj said:

I am inclined to utterly disagree. The sentiment that Michael Taylor is blocking anyone seemed to be discredited when Soto got the PT that he did last year. The OF is looking like Eaton/Soto/Robles going forward, and the only thing that could keep Robles down(aside from resigning Harper or another OF piece this offseason) would be service time concerns.

 

I was speaking to if Harper is back. If he is, hard to think they start him over Eaton. He'll likely be coming off the bench and, at most, splitting duties. Dont like it though, so he could start in AAA and come up into a starting gig if the injury bug hits one of Soto, Harper, or Eaton. If Harper doesnt resign, he absolutely owns CF. 

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Bowden said on the radio that he interviewed Dave Martinez this winter.  He asked him about not having Harper and how excited he was to have victor Robles.  Martinez went on to talk up Michael Taylor.  Said Robles may be good, but he’s never really seen it.  He’ll have a chance to compete in spring training.

 

thats a little concerning.  Everyone banking on Robles starting out the gate.  May not be the case

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12 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Bowden said on the radio that he interviewed Dave Martinez this winter.  He asked him about not having Harper and how excited he was to have victor Robles.  Martinez went on to talk up Michael Taylor.  Said Robles may be good, but he’s never really seen it.  He’ll have a chance to compete in spring training.

 

thats a little concerning.  Everyone banking on Robles starting out the gate.  May not be the case

 

It's incredible that despite the success we've seen of young players around the league (and sports in general), managers STILL are reluctant to use them because "we've never seen it". And this is coming from a manager with Juan Soto on his team. Unreal.

Edited by adifazio27
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45 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Bowden said on the radio that he interviewed Dave Martinez this winter.  He asked him about not having Harper and how excited he was to have victor Robles.  Martinez went on to talk up Michael Taylor.  Said Robles may be good, but he’s never really seen it.  He’ll have a chance to compete in spring training.

 

thats a little concerning.  Everyone banking on Robles starting out the gate.  May not be the case

I wouldn't read much into that. Manager saying his young player needs to earn the starting spot from a vet.

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On 1/2/2019 at 7:18 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

I love Robles but his ADP is a bit high for such unproven talent.  NFBC has him at 97, before guys like Turner and Olsen, let alone similarly profiled hitters like Pollock, Hicks, and Brantley.  97 seems high to me for an unproven major league player hitting at the bottom of the order.  I'm not saying Robles won't outperform all those guys, he may, but there's definite risk associated with the pick. 

 

Cause of the speed he can provide. Even Hamilton and his sub .240 batting average was drafted pretty high for his speed. Any player who can offer stolen bases and flirt with a good batting average will go early. Dee Gordon is a prime example. Does nothing but steal and hit for average and isn't exactly ignored in drafts.

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Best news possible for Robles owners with Bryce going to Philly. Kid should be secured everyday at bats, let’s just hope they don’t keep him down to start the season for service time purposes 

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Will he be leading off? If he is, I think we're looking at    .275  90runs   13   55rbi   25    It's possible  he goes .290  100   18   75  35 but that's if he completely breaks out, which isn't safe to bank on at all. 

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1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

Will he be leading off? If he is, I think we're looking at    .275  90runs   13   55rbi   25    It's possible  he goes .290  100   18   75  35 but that's if he completely breaks out, which isn't safe to bank on at all. 

I think he's pretty much set to be at the bottom of the order, at least until he proves himself or Eaton gets hurt

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11 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Will he be leading off? If he is, I think we're looking at    .275  90runs   13   55rbi   25    It's possible  he goes .290  100   18   75  35 but that's if he completely breaks out, which isn't safe to bank on at all. 

 

No chance he leads off. Even if / when Eaton is hurt they have Trea Turner. More likely he's stuck towards the bottom of the order to begin the season but with a good start he will slowly move up. I'm not worried about the lineup spot yet but also not expecting him to be moved to leadoff.

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On 3/1/2019 at 9:31 AM, Sidearmer said:

 

No chance he leads off. Even if / when Eaton is hurt they have Trea Turner. More likely he's stuck towards the bottom of the order to begin the season but with a good start he will slowly move up. I'm not worried about the lineup spot yet but also not expecting him to be moved to leadoff.

You could be right, although I could see them just keeping Turner in the #2 spot just to keep things the same.  MLB managers are lazy like that, but in this case being lazy would be fine.

There's really only 3 things stopping Robles from getting to the top of the lineup (or #2 if he is the one manager who isn't lazy): 1)If Eaton somehow stays healthy this season out of the blue 2)Robles struggles this season (unlikely) 3)Robles gets hurt.  I know it might sound silly to say there's ONLY 3 things, but I'm sure you get the idea.

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3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

You could be right, although I could see them just keeping Turner in the #2 spot just to keep things the same.  MLB managers are lazy like that, but in this case being lazy would be fine.

There's really only 3 things stopping Robles from getting to the top of the lineup (or #2 if he is the one manager who isn't lazy): 1)If Eaton somehow stays healthy this season out of the blue 2)Robles struggles this season (unlikely) 3)Robles gets hurt.  I know it might sound silly to say there's ONLY 3 things, but I'm sure you get the idea.

 

You are right. If/when Eaton is hurt even if Turner goes to leadoff it probably pushes Robles up to 2 or 5/6 is what i was getting at. So overall I'm not worried if he starts the year at 7 or 8 because of all the things you laid out he won't be there forever. He will have value if he's not at lead off. And if he's stuck at 8, then he must be playing terribly anyway and deserves to stay there.

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33 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

You are right. If/when Eaton is hurt even if Turner goes to leadoff it probably pushes Robles up to 2 or 5/6 is what i was getting at. So overall I'm not worried if he starts the year at 7 or 8 because of all the things you laid out he won't be there forever. He will have value if he's not at lead off. And if he's stuck at 8, then he must be playing terribly anyway and deserves to stay there.

I'm not worried about Robles either.  I'm actually trying to trade for him in my keeper league.  He has the potential to give some solid across the board production right out of the gate.

I'm fully expecting him to bat anywhere between 7th and 9th.  9th actually wouldn't be the end of the world initially as he'd probably run more there than 8th, and still has a chance to get driven in by Eaton and/or Turner.  7th is probably the most ideal though.  Anywhere there hurts his counting stats of course, but the expected near-elite production in SBs and decent pop should help make up for it to an extent.

Now, they better not do something stupid like treating Taylor as anything more than a decent backup.

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I read that theres no guarantee he gets FULL TIME playing time...

"Eaton will be the full-time starter in right field and either the first or second hitter in the order. He has struggled to stay healthy in his two seasons with Washington but has proved to be consistently productive when on the field. The team’s situation in center field is not as clear cut. Nationals Manager Dave Martinez reiterated Thursday that Robles and Taylor are competing for the spot. Either will be a defensive upgrade over Harper, who struggled in occasional time in center field and was not painted kindly by advanced fielding metrics. And Martinez insists that, however spring training goes, both Robles and Taylor will play."

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4 minutes ago, floppy said:

I read that theres no guarantee he gets FULL TIME playing time...

"Eaton will be the full-time starter in right field and either the first or second hitter in the order. He has struggled to stay healthy in his two seasons with Washington but has proved to be consistently productive when on the field. The team’s situation in center field is not as clear cut. Nationals Manager Dave Martinez reiterated Thursday that Robles and Taylor are competing for the spot. Either will be a defensive upgrade over Harper, who struggled in occasional time in center field and was not painted kindly by advanced fielding metrics. And Martinez insists that, however spring training goes, both Robles and Taylor will play."

 

I think it sounds worse than what it will be in reality. Taylor has never handled a full time workload. Eaton isn't exactly a pillar of health. Yes, it might be frustrating early on, but in this instance I think talent will end up winning out. 

 

If anything, this might create a good buying opportunity in redraft leagues. 

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Posted (edited)

 

Any significant injury to Taylor would essentially guarantee full time PT for Robles.

 

This also happened on the same day.

 

image.thumb.png.490b859c9e6a2aa0258fbf0458cb2f9a.png

And for what its worth he's having a totally under the radar monster Spring: 2 HR, 5 SB, 7/6 BB/K

Edited by Sidearmer
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I gotta say I’m a bit disappointed in his high ADP around 100, was hoping he’d be available later on. For instance, Ozzie Albies was going around 150 last year and they have fairly similar minor league profiles and both didn’t well in their MLB auditions, I guess people are starting to figure out these rookies can produce. I’m just not going to reach on him though, I feel like there are some safer options in his range.

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I assume that's NFBC ADP, since FantasyPros has him at 124.  I feel like the SB upside makes either of those prices pretty attractive.

You're obviously paying for production he's never shown before, but even using Steamer projections which are notoriously conservative, he comes in as around the 80th overall bat, which is right in line with FantasyPros' ADP, and THE BAT projections have him as a top 50 hitter.

Obviously there's bust potential, but when I'm in the 9th / 10th round and I haven't taken a lot of risks early on, this is the kind of guy I go for.

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