Slatykamora

Victor Robles 2019 Outlook

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Maybe they have mistakenly lumped his HPB stats into his hard hit%...? 

w/ all the disappointed owners talking about he's trash, he's droppable... (He still hasn't had a prolonged hot streak, but his prorated season #'s are nowhere near as bad as you'd think. The lack of SB's is directly tied to hitting 8'th, but he's still a baby and IMO a very serviceable 4-5OF.)

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23 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

 

How many bunts has he attempted this year that it affects his exit velo that much? I can't imagine a guy batting before the pitcher bunts that often

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Why would bunts be factored into average exit velocity?  Either the cyber metrics guys dropped the ball on this one, or laymen like us don’t have a clear understanding of what factors into exit velocity.  I’ve tried researching this, but I can’t seem to find anything written in the English language.  

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Posted (edited)

pretty crazy that hes still has a realistic shot at 90/70 runs/rbis out of the 9 hole

im expecting a big  2nd half and one of the most productive 5 cat lines ROS

Edited by colepenhagen

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On 6/12/2019 at 3:22 PM, mlb2019 said:

 

yeah. especially in a 10 team re-draft. there has to be players like Pence, Avisail Garcia, Schwarber, Alvarez, ect. even in a 12 team league. 

 

On 6/18/2019 at 1:09 PM, Ball So Hard said:

 

22 days later and he's added 1 HR and 0 SB. 15/67 walk to strikeout rate is underwhelming for the plate discipline he had in the minors. Time to cut in 12 team redraft for me.

Since 6/18- .300/4 HR/3 SB

Baseball is such a long season. Cutting an elite talent and chasing stats of guys who are coming off their hot streak is never the play.

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Easy to forget he just turned 22 and in his first full season. People have been mad or disappointed with him and he’s still probably gonna finish with 85 R, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 25 SB, and probably around 250-260 as a kid batting at the bottom of the order.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

He's hitting better lately. Yesterday I took him from FA but his metrics scare, the hard% is very low, why is it?

Edited by ramox15

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1 hour ago, ramox15 said:

He's hitting better lately. Yesterday I took him from FA but his metrics scare, the hard% is very low, why is it?

Read back a few pages. Been discussed several times.

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On 6/29/2019 at 11:48 AM, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Why would bunts be factored into average exit velocity?  Either the cyber metrics guys dropped the ball on this one, or laymen like us don’t have a clear understanding of what factors into exit velocity.  I’ve tried researching this, but I can’t seem to find anything written in the English language.  

 

8 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Read back a few pages. Been discussed several times.

 

Yes, I have read the previous pages but there was no answer that explained why the hard% is so low or is definitely because of bunts?

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7 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

Yes, I have read the previous pages but there was no answer that explained why the hard% is so low or is definitely because of bunts?

Probably partially due to the amount of bunts (which shouldn't be included in hard%, but whatever) and partially because he just doesn't hit the ball very hard.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ramox15 said:

 

 

Yes, I have read the previous pages but there was no answer that explained why the hard% is so low or is definitely because of bunts?

He's 395th in overall exit velocity, and 341st in FB/LD exit velo. He is well below average regardless of bunts., but doesn't suck to a Billy Hamilton like level that the overall exit velo suggests due to some bunts.

He has 60 cumulative hard hits via stat cast. Same range as Wong, Almora, LuCroy and O. Navarez for players with over 200 BBE

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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Since June 19 when he made the adjustment of moving closer to the plate, here are his stats...

 

23 G, 21 GS, 23/74 (.311), 13 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 6 SB, and 22.3% K rate, 

 

The kid is coming along.

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3 hours ago, 20Duval904 said:

Since June 19 when he made the adjustment of moving closer to the plate, here are his stats...

 

23 G, 21 GS, 23/74 (.311), 13 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 6 SB, and 22.3% K rate, 

 

The kid is coming along.

But but but the exit velocity makes him like Billy Hamilton right?

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4 minutes ago, cad300 said:

But but but the exit velocity makes him like Billy Hamilton right?

if anyone really thought victor was a similar type hitter as b ham they need help. I understand exit velo and it is a stat that needs to be factored in but people use ur eyes a little.

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What was Robles hit grade? Why am I seeing comps to Billy Hamilton here that just seems absurd if you've seen both play

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1 hour ago, FantasyFiend said:

What was Robles hit grade? Why am I seeing comps to Billy Hamilton here that just seems absurd if you've seen both play

 

Because people just learned how to use baseball savant and see that his hard hit% is super low but don't realize he was bunting a lot and those are grouped into his batted ball profile. He was never going to murder the ball like gallo or judge, but he's certainly not billy hamilton out there

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18 hours ago, ramox15 said:

He's hitting better lately. Yesterday I took him from FA but his metrics scare, the hard% is very low, why is it?

Not just better. Effing great. Last 30 days he's top 30 overall in 5x5. So glad I didn't attach anvils to the man's ankles and toss him over the side of my fantasy boat. Came thisclose to feeding his a** to the sharks. Patience with youngins can kiss ya or kill ya. At the moment it's smooches all around from Big Stick Vic.

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Keeper/Dynasty owners, what do you think about his long term prospects at this point? 

Age 22 season-

Robles- .243/.313/.429 14 HR/17 SB, 24 K%/5.2 BB (383 PAs)

Age 23 season-

Buxton- .253/.314/.413 16HR/29 SB, 29.4 K%/7.4 BB (511 PAs)

Robles on pace (511 PAs) 19 HR/23 SB

 

I can’t help but think we’re holding onto “the next Buxton,” with tantalizing power/speed combo but really never becomes elite. The play might be to sell if he’s still valued at a premium. Price now (or maybe heading into next season) might just be peak value.

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7 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Keeper/Dynasty owners, what do you think about his long term prospects at this point? 

Age 22 season-

Robles- .243/.313/.429 14 HR/17 SB, 24 K%/5.2 BB (383 PAs)

Age 23 season-

Buxton- .253/.314/.413 16HR/29 SB, 29.4 K%/7.4 BB (511 PAs)

Robles on pace (511 PAs) 19 HR/23 SB

 

I can’t help but think we’re holding onto “the next Buxton,” with tantalizing power/speed combo but really never becomes elite. The play might be to sell if he’s still valued at a premium. Price now (or maybe heading into next season) might just be peak value.

Buxton get so much slack because he was supposed to be ronald acuna.  Theres always that ONE report that sticks out in peoples minds that says "this is the last year to get him at his value before hes a first rounder." If you sit back and look at his stats,theure plenty useable.  At this point,if you rexognize and accept that hes mike cameron and you treat him as such you'll still be happy.  Robles is looking kind of similar with the prospect of a potential breakout.  Problem is,other owners will likely only pay for mike cameron.  Looking at the regular stats and the advanced ones as well, it would be a tough sell.  Any potential breakout value will have to cpme from the current dynasty owner.

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8 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Buxton get so much slack because he was supposed to be ronald acuna.  Theres always that ONE report that sticks out in peoples minds that says "this is the last year to get him at his value before hes a first rounder." If you sit back and look at his stats,theure plenty useable.  At this point,if you rexognize and accept that hes mike cameron and you treat him as such you'll still be happy.  Robles is looking kind of similar with the prospect of a potential breakout.  Problem is,other owners will likely only pay for mike cameron.  Looking at the regular stats and the advanced ones as well, it would be a tough sell.  Any potential breakout value will have to cpme from the current dynasty owner.

Wasn’t really a dig on Buxton and yeah, he’s valuable. But it’s kinda my point. He was valued as an Acuna, or top 10 dynasty asset at one point. And he’s not. And while Buxton still provides some value, wouldn’t dynasty owners loved to have sold at that point? 

Wondering if Robles will be in the same boat. Is the time to deal now. 

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Wasn’t really a dig on Buxton and yeah, he’s valuable. But it’s kinda my point. He was valued as an Acuna, or top 10 dynasty asset at one point. And he’s not. And while Buxton still provides some value, wouldn’t dynasty owners loved to have sold at that point? 

Wondering if Robles will be in the same boat. Is the time to deal now. 

Classic glass half full/half empty.  Buxton likely is what he is.  Robles still has a bit of that breakout value and that chance that he turns into a round 1/2 type.  If you trade him, youre getting a bit of that potential value,but definately risking a hige breakout (hes still insanely young and has had an atrocious lineup spot.)  My personal guess is he'll be more cameron than acuna.  

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Keeper/Dynasty owners, what do you think about his long term prospects at this point? 

Age 22 season-

Robles- .243/.313/.429 14 HR/17 SB, 24 K%/5.2 BB (383 PAs)

Age 23 season-

Buxton- .253/.314/.413 16HR/29 SB, 29.4 K%/7.4 BB (511 PAs)

Robles on pace (511 PAs) 19 HR/23 SB

 

I can’t help but think we’re holding onto “the next Buxton,” with tantalizing power/speed combo but really never becomes elite. The play might be to sell if he’s still valued at a premium. Price now (or maybe heading into next season) might just be peak value.

Kinda a lazy comp. Not really in dept

Robles does not stuggle vs Sliders nearly as bad as Buxton had before this year. Robles problem this year is that he isn't doing very well vs 4-seamers. He has a higher OPS off Sliders and Curve-balls then 4 seamers. That is the total opposite of someone like Buxton. Robles has solid bat control, he isn't really hitting fastballs with much authority right now.

You would have sold low on Rafael Devers last year if you were worried about a very young guy who stuggled a lot with 4-seamers, but still flashed great bat control. (No, he doesn't have his raw power, but he flipped the script on his BA this year)

Robles potential to improve his BA is far greater then Buxton because of bat control. Took Buxton 4 years to finally be not god awful vs sliders (in terms of contact rate against).

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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