Slatykamora

Victor Robles 2019 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Kinda a lazy comp. Not really in dept

Robles does not stuggle vs Sliders nearly as bad as Buxton had before this year. Robles problem this year is that he isn't doing very well vs 4-seamers. He has a higher OPS off Sliders and Curve-balls then 4 seamers. That is the total opposite of someone like Buxton. Robles has solid bat control, he isn't really hitting fastballs with much authority right now.

You would have sold low on Rafael Devers last year if you were worried about a very young guy who stuggled a lot with 4-seamers, but still flashed great bat control. (No, he doesn't have his raw power, but he flipped the script on his BA this year)

Robles potential to improve his BA is far greater then Buxton because of bat control. Took Buxton 4 years to finally be not god awful vs sliders (in terms of contact rate against).

 

 

Pretty much the in-depth dive I was hoping for. The Buxton comp was admittedly very surface-level, which is why I wanted some more thoughts. Thanks.

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

What's this dude's ceiling you think?

.280, 28 bombs, 40+ steals?

 

I think long-term, and probably starting next season, he’s batting in the 2 hole.... and batting there I think his his 5 category potential is something like 20-25 HR (I expect closer to 20), 100 R, 75 RBI, 35-40 SB with a .280 BA.

 

Even if they don’t retain Rendon, batting between Turner and Soto is so much better than batting 7th or 8th too, like he is now.

 

I get to watch a lot of Robles, and one of the best things I can say about him, is he looks like he belongs. I think the 5-category upside is immense. I think an apt comp for his 5-category game is Starling Marte.

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41 minutes ago, 20Duval904 said:

 

I think long-term, and probably starting next season, he’s batting in the 2 hole.... and batting there I think his his 5 category potential is something like 20-25 HR (I expect closer to 20), 100 R, 75 RBI, 35-40 SB with a .280 BA.

 

Even if they don’t retain Rendon, batting between Turner and Soto is so much better than batting 7th or 8th too, like he is now.

 

I get to watch a lot of Robles, and one of the best things I can say about him, is he looks like he belongs. I think the 5-category upside is immense. I think an apt comp for his 5-category game is Starling Marte.

Was thinking carlos gomez after ssing those projections (thinking 18 hrs rather than 25.)  

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2 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Back to being absolutely terrible

And experts continue to keep this guys ranking sky high, he clearly isn't the player most think he is.

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15 minutes ago, quietj said:

And experts continue to keep this guys ranking sky high, he clearly isn't the player most think he is.

 

Sometimes it takes players a while to put it all together. He's still got 14 home runs and 17 steals, so there's definitely massive upside under the surface. His average will probably come up as he becomes a better hitter. That's really what's holding him back this season

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12 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

Sometimes it takes players a while to put it all together. He's still got 14 home runs and 17 steals, so there's definitely massive upside under the surface. His average will probably come up as he becomes a better hitter. That's really what's holding him back this season

Agreed, my primary complaint is that I have yet to see any expert take this into account and adjust him accordingly in the remainder of the season rankings.

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From mid-June through mid-July, he was hitting over .300 and balling... then the last 2 weeks have been rough.

 

Such is life for a 22 year old batting in the 8 hole every night.

 

He has show a high propensity for improvement in his game though. His defense went from up and down to consistently very very good. He’s improved his mental lapses on the bases, too.

 

Stinks for fantasy owners but he really is just a talented kid going through growing pains. The inconsistency is what is.... especially for a guy that only played 77 career games in the high minors. 

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He is a BA killer of late.  Someone like Trent Grisham who is a lefty could be a better power speed threat as a better hitter at this stage (PT equal in a vacuum).

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I think his 2019 epitaph will read "mixed bag".

Some fraction of that I attribute to his own team consistently batting him 8th or 9th. 

Other hand - he's never "hit himself out of" that designation. He's occasionally been elevated to the #6 or even #2 lineup spot only to fail miserably on pretty much every occasion.

I'll be mildly interested in Robles next year as a mid-round flyer in 12-team leagues. Pretty much how I thought of him going into 2019, i.e. not much progress.

His upside is undeniable, and he's still young. I'm not happy with the returns this year however (yes still own him).

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V Robles: 373 at bats, 59 runs, 14 hr, 46 rbi, 17 sb, .239 avg, .727 ops

Player B: 332 at bats, 63 runs, 17 hr, 45 rbi, 9 sb, .256 avg, .818 ops

 

Guys, (outside of steals) we basically drafted a worse version of Brett Gardner 

spacer.png

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1 minute ago, street sharks said:

V Robles: 373 at bats, 59 runs, 14 hr, 46 rbi, 17 sb, .239 avg, .727 ops

Player B: 332 at bats, 63 runs, 17 hr, 45 rbi, 9 sb, .256 avg, .818 ops

 

Guys, (outside of steals) we basically drafted a worse version of Brett Gardner 

spacer.png

 

Such is the cost of doing business drafting kids. Always a dicy proposition for redraft leagues.

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robles per plate appearance avg. -  0.033 hrs, 0.041 sb, 0.112 rbi, 0.147 runs 757 ops

player A per plate appearance avg - 0.030 hrs, 0.030 sb, 0.1368 rbi, 0.128 runs 776 ops  (2nd in ROY)

 

 

 

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He’s been streaky but for a rookie that just turned 22 in May while batting 7th or 8th almost every night, he’s been exactly what most hoped for this year.

 

He’ll likely finish with  something like... 85 R, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 26 SB.... and he’s also a real Gold Glove candidate in CF. 

 

Sky is the limit for him as he keeps developing.

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Yeah I'm not worried about him not immediately breaking out the same way guys like Soto and Tatis and Acuna have. If you have him in roto the numbers will be solid enough by year's end if you've kept him plugged in your lineup most of the season. It is kind of funny that every time he has a cold snap that makes you think he ought to be dropped, he goes 5-cat berzerk for about 2 weeks to make up for it. Six multi-hit games with 12 runs scored and 4 steals over his last 11 games. Gotta believe at some point the cold streaks will stop being so icy and he might settle in as a .270ish BA guy with 25/35 potential.

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39 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Yeah I'm not worried about him not immediately breaking out the same way guys like Soto and Tatis and Acuna have. If you have him in roto the numbers will be solid enough by year's end if you've kept him plugged in your lineup most of the season. It is kind of funny that every time he has a cold snap that makes you think he ought to be dropped, he goes 5-cat berzerk for about 2 weeks to make up for it. Six multi-hit games with 12 runs scored and 4 steals over his last 11 games. Gotta believe at some point the cold streaks will stop being so icy and he might settle in as a .270ish BA guy with 25/35 potential.

Yeah this is accurate imo. 

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2 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Yeah I'm not worried about him not immediately breaking out the same way guys like Soto and Tatis and Acuna have. If you have him in roto the numbers will be solid enough by year's end if you've kept him plugged in your lineup most of the season. It is kind of funny that every time he has a cold snap that makes you think he ought to be dropped, he goes 5-cat berzerk for about 2 weeks to make up for it. Six multi-hit games with 12 runs scored and 4 steals over his last 11 games. Gotta believe at some point the cold streaks will stop being so icy and he might settle in as a .270ish BA guy with 25/35 potential.

I love him as a cross the board contributor.  He went like a full month of complete zeroes and has been batting right in front of the pitcher all season.  I’d personally lower the avg and power projections a tad, but still an extremely usable, and profitable player for next year and the  remainder of this one.

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Seems like he's been hitting the ball harder over the past month or so, and since he came into the game late vs. the Mets on August 11th and hit a HR off of Edwin Diaz, here are his stats:

 

33 GP

.317 BA, 17.5% K, 6.5% BB

22 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 8 SB, 2 CS

 

Those per 162 numbers would put him at 108 R, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 40 SB

 

It was a streaky year for him, but for a 22 year old to show so much improvement on the bases and in the field, plus the hot finish at the plate, he's going to be a likely breakout player in 2019, especially if he moves up in the order.

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