Flyman75

Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

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21 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Worth noting, but I don't see why we wouldn't see a repeat  The team let those guys run because there was no downside, because the team wasn't going anywhere.  The team isn't going anywhere in 2019, either.  Maybe early in the season a few stop signs go up, but once it's clear that the team isn't contending, why wouldn't they just let them run?

Steals can be a funny thing to predict because so much is outside of their control (SBO, unpredictable managers etc).  

 

They are still going to play to win at least at first.  The Royals weren't a "contender" to start last year when Merrifield barely ran.

Edited by Magoo
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14 minutes ago, Magoo said:

They are still going to play to win at least at first.  The Royals weren't a "contender" to start last year when Merrifield barely ran.

 

Yeah, but when every team is mathematically in contention, you have to at least pretend.  Once it becomes clear to everyone that not only are they not built to win but they have no realistic shot, then you just give the fans a reason to tune in / show up, which means letting your players do what they do best, regardless of whether it might decrease win expectancy by a small fraction.

 

I'm predicting the same pattern -- respectable but not silly SB numbers early, then just total madness.  Mondesi may or may not hit well enough to realize all that SB potential late in the season, which is why I'm not in on him at his current price, but Whit almost certainly will. 

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4 hours ago, Magoo said:

Steals can be a funny thing to predict because so much is outside of their control (SBO, unpredictable managers etc).  

 

They are still going to play to win at least at first.  The Royals weren't a "contender" to start last year when Merrifield barely ran.

 

The only way the Royals can win is with speed at this point.  Last year they still had Moose at the start to drive Merrifield in.  Not this season.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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14 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

The only way the Royals can win is with speed at this point.  Last year they still had Moose at the start to drive Merrifield in.  Not this season.

 Ohearn begs to differ. 

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Peraza hit like .323 for about 200 at bats with no plate discipline, and more homeruns  then was expected. The next year he stunk and beginning of 2018 until he realize he needed plate discipline,  then he took off.

Peraza is no Mondesi but believe me thier watching tape. Say goodby to Mondesi's out of this world end of 2018 season.

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On 12/6/2018 at 2:20 AM, RotoCat said:

Peraza hit like .323 for about 200 at bats with no plate discipline, and more homeruns  then was expected. The next year he stunk and beginning of 2018 until he realize he needed plate discipline,  then he took off.

Peraza is no Mondesi but believe me thier watching tape. Say goodby to Mondesi's out of this world end of 2018 season.

Dont think Peraza is a great comp.  Yes- both speedy w/ plate discipline issues, but Peraza never projected as having any pop.  Peraza was a sub 400 SLG guy in AAA while Mondesi slugged 500+ in AAA.

 

 

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There are flags in the profile, certainly. But he can continue to shine up those things too. Speaking as a guy that was onto him early as a huge buy-low in dynasty last year (as @Flyman75can attest to) he might be one of the more obvious sell at hype peaks now too...just because the industry has pushed him super high. Idk I will likely hold at least into ST to see. I don't have any analytical data to support, but he really appeared to be smoking the ball--when he made contact. His barrels and esp exit velo numbers would be of interest.

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4 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

There are flags in the profile, certainly. But he can continue to shine up those things too. Speaking as a guy that was onto him early as a huge buy-low in dynasty last year (as @Flyman75can attest to) he might be one of the more obvious sell at hype peaks now too...just because the industry has pushed him super high. Idk I will likely hold at least into ST to see. I don't have any analytical data to support, but he really appeared to be smoking the ball--when he made contact. His barrels and esp exit velo numbers would be of interest.

Useful data on this:  

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/adalberto-mondesi-609275?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

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Razzball has him #20 overall. The overdrafts on this guy are going to be legendary.

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This guy and Villar are going to be super interesting same type of player that nobody has a real firm grasp on the right time to take them 

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1 hour ago, kmoore1521 said:

This guy and Villar are going to be super interesting same type of player that nobody has a real firm grasp on the right time to take them 

It’s interesting to see there is no steal inflation for slap hitters but any power projections (10+) and they just keep climbing.

 

mondesi adp will be 30ish by March. 

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7 minutes ago, Magoo said:

It’s interesting to see there is no steal inflation for slap hitters but any power projections (10+) and they just keep climbing.

 

mondesi adp will be 30ish by March. 

 

i took him 34 in mock 1, and i dont regret it

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i took him 34 in mock 1, and i dont regret it

 

took him 55 in our current mock, and happy with it.

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Just now, Members_Only_76 said:

 

took him 55 in our current mock, and happy with it.

just checked, hes gone 33, 44 and 55 in our 3 mocks. 

 

im willing to take one risk in the top 5 or so. he might be my risk in several leagues.  unless i get a 25+sb guy in the 1st or 2nd

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On 1/15/2019 at 10:15 AM, kmoore1521 said:

This guy and Villar are going to be super interesting same type of player that nobody has a real firm grasp on the right time to take them 

Couldn't be more excited to be keeping both from last year. These guys won a bunch of leagues last year, especially Mondesi. Definitely two of the most intriguing players to watch for 2019.

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5 hours ago, bradwatson said:

Couldn't be more excited to be keeping both from last year. These guys won a bunch of leagues last year, especially Mondesi. Definitely two of the most intriguing players to watch for 2019.

Yeah Villar can either help win you your league or be on your waiver by May. 

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So on average, he seems to be a top 50 player; I am sure many people inflated his stats from last year, which I learned the hard way, not to. I took him from waiver last year in one of my leagues and will have the right of him this year too; so at least the risk is minimum. In the redraft league if he is available in 5 round (at least 12 teams) or later, I will feel more comfortable on taking him. The secondary stats just scares me some.

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On 12/20/2018 at 3:59 PM, AnonymousRob said:

Looks like he'll be seeing a ton of off-speed and breaking balls next season.

Across the board players have worse numbers vs breaking balls.

 

Off-speed? We shall see in a full season

Edited by Slatykamora

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He’s exciting for sure after that  second half run, especially September. 

 

That said he feels pretty risky too. The Royals shouldn’t have anything to lose and should just let him play daily, but they’ve screwed things up numerous times before. 

 

I want at least one share somewhere, but it may be tough to go all in unless he improves the plate discipline remarkably in ST giving hints that he’s working on his batting eye. 

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12 hours ago, JFS179 said:

He’s exciting for sure after that  second half run, especially September. 

 

That said he feels pretty risky too. The Royals shouldn’t have anything to lose and should just let him play daily, but they’ve screwed things up numerous times before. 

 

I want at least one share somewhere, but it may be tough to go all in unless he improves the plate discipline remarkably in ST giving hints that he’s working on his batting eye. 

And if he does that, you wont want to pay the price.

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20 hours ago, JFS179 said:

He’s exciting for sure after that  second half run, especially September. 

 

That said he feels pretty risky too. The Royals shouldn’t have anything to lose and should just let him play daily, but they’ve screwed things up numerous times before. 

 

I want at least one share somewhere, but it may be tough to go all in unless he improves the plate discipline remarkably in ST giving hints that he’s working on his batting eye. 

With his OBP issues he’ll be lucky to not disappoint in runs relative to expectations. Especially on this team.

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