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Alex Bregman 2019 Outlook

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Incredible 2018 after a pretty slow start to the season. 1 HR and 9 2B in his first 34 games. After that? 

 

123 games, 42 2B, 30 HR, 93 R, 91 RBI, 74 BB, 66 K, 7 SB, .295/.400/.581 slash line. 169 wRC+

 

Comparing his #'s for the last year and a half put him right up there with the elites of the game. He's going to cost an early pick in 2019 (likely the back end of the first round). The SS/3B eligibility make that a bit safer of a pick, as it gives some flexibility later in the draft. Never a bad thing. 

 

Steamer has a pretty pathetic projection for the kind, in my opinion. 

 

The projection : 150 games, 25 HR, 94 R, 86 RBI, 11 SB, 11.5% BB%, 13.2% K%

 

I think you can buy him as a high floor, high ceiling guy. My "somewhat reasonable" expectation would be 

 

.285 batting average, 28 home runs, 100 runs, 90 RBI, 10 SB. I think that's a near floor across the board, but with upside as a .300/35/110/100/15 guy for standard 5x5 scoring, with a shot to maintain a .400 OBP, but obviously more likely to be around .380. 

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stud and im willing to take him in the first round ahead of the likes of story, baez, machado etc

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Springer Bregman combo...ahhh

 

Bregman is top 10 IMO. 42 doubles is incredible. 

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I don't think his "floor" is exactly that high.  He goes through lapses where he is just terrible, like the aforementioned start of 2018 and lots of times during 2017.  But of course that 2nd half of 2018 has catapulted him into elite status.  Absolutely carried me in one league.  His upside is way more important than his floor.

Edited by KingJoffrey

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10 hours ago, zstlj said:

Springer Bregman combo...ahhh

 

Bregman is top 10 IMO. 42 doubles is incredible. 

 

That was in that last 123 games. Had 51 doubles on the season. 

 

10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I don't think his "floor" is exactly that high.  He goes through lapses where he is just terrible, like the aforementioned start of 2018 and lots of times during 2017.  But of course that 2nd half of 2018 has catapulted him into elite status.  Absolutely carried me in one league.  His upside is way more important than his floor.

 

How many guys truly have a high floor if he doesn't? 


He played 157 games. His first 78 he batted .272/.376/.490 with a wRC+ of 142. The dude was hardly killing anyone the first "half." He still had 13 homers, 48 R, 47 RBI in that sample. 

 

Guy has a career .282/.366/.500 line. You can slice up his "bad" times all you want, but he's a developing player who has overcome some slumps. 


With his batted ball profile, plate approach, great lineup around him, and ability to steal bases absolutely makes him a high floor guy. It doesn't mean he's a lock to return first-round value (who is, really?). 

 

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Plate discipline skills are elite, probably best in the league other than maybe Mookie, JoRam, or Votto. He lost 7 steals from 2017 to 2018, which might be alarming but I'm willing to overlook it. Hitting in an elite lineup, duel-eligibility,  INCREDIBLE plate skills, and gains in 3 consecutive seasons... He could be an MVP next season. 

 

Personally the top of my draft would go Trout, Mookie, Ramirez, Lindor, but anytime after that I can justify Bregman in that Machado/Turner/Arenado/Martinez range.

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19 hours ago, Saucy said:

Plate discipline skills are elite, probably best in the league other than maybe Mookie, JoRam, or Votto. He lost 7 steals from 2017 to 2018, which might be alarming but I'm willing to overlook it. Hitting in an elite lineup, duel-eligibility,  INCREDIBLE plate skills, and gains in 3 consecutive seasons... He could be an MVP next season. 

 

Personally the top of my draft would go Trout, Mookie, Ramirez, Lindor, but anytime after that I can justify Bregman in that Machado/Turner/Arenado/Martinez range.

 

agree with this 100% and im throwing yelich in that bregman/machado range too

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On 2/1/2019 at 7:38 PM, WTP333 said:

how are we valuing him right now?

Personally think he is overvalued in general based on early ADP, 12-teamer he is still averaging out as a first rounder which too me is too high.  In the recent FSTA draft which is the hosts/personalities/"experts" on SiriusXM Fantasy radio and he went pick 19 I think, which I think is about where he should be going, mid 2nd round.  

 

Im a Bregman owner, so hoping these concerns do not show up, but here is where I have some concerns:

* Slow starts - in 2017 he did not hit his first HR of the season until May 14th last year hit his 2nd on May 6th I think.  So through the month of April last year he had 1HR, in 2017 he had 0HR.  Thats a little unnerving to have a 1st round pick come out of the gate so slowly, so that is a concern, and cant imagine the elbow surgery delaying start of spring for him will help that cause, other than maybe not pressing as much because of the injury maybe he lowers expectations?

 

* As he has become a force, he has started to hit mid lineup, he has 29 career stolen bases - he has 0 when batting 3-4-5 spots.  I think some of what drives up his value is that you are thinking maybe low double digit steals?  Looks like that is a batting order dependent stat for him and as his status as an elite hitter in the middle order increases his SB's decrease.  

 

I think though he is a safe baseline play even with the slow start he will get his numbers, but for the H2H crowd this can be a little frustrating.  I think if he hits mid lineup, its .285 25HR 100RBI 90Runs question is whether or not he steals and exactly what his power is, Im not expecting 30+HR, thinking he is more of a mid 20's guy.

 

follow me @hackerschamp  

 

 

Edited by parrothead
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I have the 9 pick and if he’s available he’s coming home with me . Hoping my league mates let him fall a few picks .

Alrhough Trout, Harper , TTurner

Goldy and Sale will go before he does . Story , Verlander and C Seager could go ahead of him 

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6 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I have the 9 pick and if he’s available he’s coming home with me . Hoping my league mates let him fall a few picks .

Alrhough Trout, Harper , TTurner

Goldy and Sale will go before he does . Story , Verlander and C Seager could go ahead of him 

 

There's no chance Corey Seager goes in front of Alex Bregman in pretty much any draft after last year's injury. Just no way. 

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In one of my leagues two owners have third base filled . Possible he gets grabbed as ss , cut or mi . And every league and owner are different .

i remember a few years back Linecum was taken with the first pick overall and I was able to get Miggy with the third pick . It happens 

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8 hours ago, motown magic said:

In one of my leagues two owners have third base filled . Possible he gets grabbed as ss , cut or mi . And every league and owner are different .

i remember a few years back Linecum was taken with the first pick overall and I was able to get Miggy with the third pick . It happens 

Hoping Lincecum as No.1 overall was more than a "few" years back...otherwise Im thinking the owner and Timmy might be smoking from the same stash.  

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What if this clean up surgery actually makes him better? You can see his hard contact% went down the final 2 months despite putting up a 163wRC+

 

I'm seriously thinking about trading JoRam for this guy in a keep forever league

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Thank God it’s good to be back here and free of fantasy suckball

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7 hours ago, parrothead said:

Hoping Lincecum as No.1 overall was more than a "few" years back...otherwise Im thinking the owner and Timmy might be smoking from the same stash.  

I couldn't remember the exact year so I used the word "few " just to make my point.Obviously I didn't mean it literally

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1 hour ago, motown magic said:

I couldn't remember the exact year so I used the word "few " just to make my point.Obviously I didn't mean it literally

I know...just wanted chance to insert some weed humor.  In 2010 in California it was the first crack at legalized Marijuana and they were selling shirts outside the park that had Yes on (whatever the proposition number was) and on the back said "Let Timmy Smoke"

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Posted (edited)

 Bregman is easily one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Nothing in his profile or Minors history suggests that he can be a 30 HR bat going forward or that he will consistently steal bases in double digits. He’s a .285/25 HR/85 RBI/100 R/12 SB player and that’s not even close to first round value. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as people think and I predict a lot of people will be burned this year.

Edited by Thenewwildone8
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26 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 Bregman is easily one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Nothing in his profile or Minors history suggests that he can be a 30 HR bat going forward or that he will consistently steal bases in double digits. He’s a .285/25 HR/85 RBI/100 R/12 SB player and that’s not even close to first round value. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as people think and I predict a lot of people will be burned this year.

 

Well he hit 31 bombs last year so I'm struggling to see how his ceiling is 25 HRs. 

I do think he's slightly overrated in traditional 5x5 formats, but in an OBP league he's worth the extra dollar.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 Bregman is easily one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Nothing in his profile or Minors history suggests that he can be a 30 HR bat going forward or that he will consistently steal bases in double digits. He’s a .285/25 HR/85 RBI/100 R/12 SB player and that’s not even close to first round value. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as people think and I predict a lot of people will be burned this year.

 

Fair point about the HR and SB... it's a refreshing point of view on a RW thread, which are usually overly-sanguine. I think the thing about Bregman is that his approach and contact skills are so elite, he could easily improve on the .285 BA. His O-swing% was top 5, and only one player in MLB (qualified PAs) had a lower swinging strike%. He's probably a true .300 hitter who hasn't realized it yet. Some might still argue he's overrated because of the power numbers, but to me he's got one of the safest floors out there. Floor is part of what you look for in the 1st round. So I have no issues personally with him in the late 1st rd at all.

Edited by UberRebel
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8 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 Bregman is easily one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Nothing in his profile or Minors history suggests that he can be a 30 HR bat going forward or that he will consistently steal bases in double digits. He’s a .285/25 HR/85 RBI/100 R/12 SB player and that’s not even close to first round value. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as people think and I predict a lot of people will be burned this year.

His major league stats at his age are almost directly pairable to Francisco lindor, if they continue to this year he will be in the high 30s for home runs.

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I don’t think he’ll steal much if at all, but I don’t suspect his power numbers to dip. His elbow is cleared of bone spurs that have been bothering him for a couple years. Home runs should come with more regularity, and probably less in bunches than last year. 

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8 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 Bregman is easily one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Nothing in his profile or Minors history suggests that he can be a 30 HR bat going forward or that he will consistently steal bases in double digits. He’s a .285/25 HR/85 RBI/100 R/12 SB player and that’s not even close to first round value. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as people think and I predict a lot of people will be burned this year.

Why so low on the RBIs though? Go ahead and think he's a .285/25 HR player, but I see more of a .300/35 HR guy. Last year was his floor and I'd be surprised if he didn't rank in the top 10-15 hitters this year.

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