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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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5 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

Knowing that this is definitely his last year in Pittsburgh I would expect them to use him up like an old wash rag. He may get his most touches ever. 

 

his volume is king ... because looking back at last year (after a similar holdout), in 15 games (he sat week 17) -  

 

7 games with zero TDs, including a 4 game stretch out the bye where he had but 1, through the air

longest gain on the ground was 27 yds, through the air 42 yds

4 games under 50 rushing yds, (he made it up in 3 of the 4 with great rec. stats, of course)

8 games under 4 ypc

406 touches for 1,946 yds. - roughly 4.8 yds per

an avg of 27 touches for roughly 128 per game, with .75 TDs per 

 

that's what ya call grinding out magick foosball points ... nothing very explosive or game breaking - more a by product of a very massive amount of touches.  you take this cat because of those reasons, that volume makes him the FF asset that he is.

 

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

his volume is king ... because looking back at last year (after a similar holdout), in 15 games (he sat week 17) -  

 

7 games with zero TDs, including a 4 game stretch out the bye where he had but 1, through the air

longest gain on the ground was 27 yds, through the air 42 yds

4 games under 50 rushing yds, (he made it up in 3 of the 4 with great rec. stats, of course)

8 games under 4 ypc

406 touches for 1,946 yds. - roughly 4.8 yds per

an avg of 27 touches for roughly 128 per game, with .75 TDs per 

 

that's what ya call grinding out magick foosball points ... nothing very explosive or game breaking - more a by product of a very massive amount of touches.  you take this cat because of those reasons, that volume makes him the FF asset that he is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good knowledge, I like it.

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So, are we looking at a possible hold out in to the season? 

 

Just wondering what the pros would be for Le'veon if he held himself out. With the franchise tag, the time for a restructured deal has already passed right? He doesn't really have any leverage any more and him missing games will only cost him money. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but even if the Steelers wanted to offer him 100 mill in guaranteed money right now they couldn't, right?

 

So really the only reason he would hold out would be to preserve his body for the end of the season when he can sign a massive contract. If he suffers a major injury this season his value will plummet, and he may decide missing out on 14 mill is worth it if he can guarantee himself a contract of ~70 mill after this year. 

 

I feel like there isn't a lot of info out there right now on this, but what Le'veon is saying (or lack or what he is saying) is making it seem like he may not report for week 1. 

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Bell is going to sit out the 1st 8 weeks and then report so he can be a FA at the end of the season.... he said reporting on Labor Day was fake news. I have quietly been grabbing Connor everywhere from unsuspecting Bell owners.... I have no link, just reading the tea leaves. 

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36 minutes ago, AngryBeavers said:

Bell is going to sit out the 1st 8 weeks and then report so he can be a FA at the end of the season.... he said reporting on Labor Day was fake news. I have quietly been grabbing Connor everywhere from unsuspecting Bell owners.... I have no link, just reading the tea leaves. 

 

Sounds about right.

 

Can't be franchised tagged again.  Do as little as possible, then complain that NOBODY wants to give you more than $15 million a year for 3-4 years.  He'll be looking for the most guaranteed money, then he'll hold out again "Julio style" in 2 years for more guaranteed money. 

 

He doesn't practice at all.  Sucks in the "real" playoffs.  Steelers fans will be better off when he gets his money somewhere else. 

Conner is a legit replacement.  Pull the trigger already.

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On 8/26/2018 at 12:06 PM, Cotton Jones said:

I have had Bell on my roster 4 str years

His slow start last year almost cost me a playoff spot (i started 0-6 then won 7 straight)

 

I do think people assume too much about him this season.

They assume the Steelers will run him into the ground because they're paying a lot for him.

They paid a lot for him last year and they eased him in last season.

They want to win, that's all that matters, they are not making on-field decisions based on money.

I thought Conner was pretty good last year in the preseason but this year he has obviously taken the next step.

I also have concerns about the wear and tear accumulated last season.

I have the #2 pick in my PPR and I am almost certainly going to pass on him this season, assuming he doesnt go #1.

 

The one thing I wouldn't worrry about is the new OC, from what I have read not much has changed, and since this OC is more no-huddle friendly that should only help increase le'veon's production

[Removed AC content]

Do you think that this being a contract year for him, is a positive fantasy wise? Money is the motivator for these guys.

Edited by tonycpsu
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For those who own this guy in keeper leagues are you worried at all?  Are you looking to get off the train?  When this guy plays he's a beast but I'm wondering what the long term outlook is for him with Pitts?  Think there will be any missed time this year? Last year he reported on September 1st I believe.  

 

His volume is what keeps him as a top 3 RB but if I can flip him now maybe this is the time to get off the bus?  He's only 26 and while his YPC dropped significantly last year his volume was up.  He scored a total of 11TDs last year and should be able to repeat that if he plays the whole season.  Is PIT getting tired of this every year? Last year AB was sick of it and went public with his comments.

 

While the team is working their butts off in camp Bell is no where to be seen.

 

Ride this out or finally get rid of this ongoing headache each year?

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3 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

For those who own this guy in keeper leagues are you worried at all?  Are you looking to get off the train?  When this guy plays he's a beast but I'm wondering what the long term outlook is for him with Pitts?  Think there will be any missed time this year? Last year he reported on September 1st I believe.  

 

His volume is what keeps him as a top 3 RB but if I can flip him now maybe this is the time to get off the bus?  He's only 26 and while his YPC dropped significantly last year his volume was up.  He scored a total of 11TDs last year and should be able to repeat that if he plays the whole season.  Is PIT getting tired of this every year? Last year AB was sick of it and went public with his comments.

 

While the team is working their butts off in camp Bell is no where to be seen.

 

Ride this out or finally get rid of this ongoing headache each year?

 

Depends on what you can get

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35 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Depends on what you can get

Obviously it does but if I can swing a decent package deal for another top RB I might just do it.  A guy like Zeke could be a good target as his targets are supposed to increase this year and his ranking is slightly less than Bell.

 

Comparing these two Bell should out produce Zeke in PPR but in standard Zeke may not be that far behind.  Also after Zeke missed some games last year his value is slightly reduced, along with some questions about their offense. But maybe some of those are overblown.

 

Also what are thoughts about the Steelers offense long term. What happens when Big Ben hangs them up or maybe gets injured again this year? Less worry about the passing game and Bell's numbers could go down.

 

I'm just playing devil's advocate here... Ultimately I would feel better if Bell has committed to camp and playing to start the year.

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Just now, Big Nate said:

Obviously it does but if I can swing a decent package deal for another top RB I might just do it.  A guy like Zeke could be a good target as his targets are supposed to increase this year and his ranking is slightly less than Bell.

 

Comparing these two Bell should out produce Zeke in PPR but in standard Zeke may not be that far behind.  Also after Zeke missed some games last year his value is slightly reduced, along with some questions about their offense. But maybe some of those are overblown.

 

Also what are thoughts about the Steelers offense long term. What happens when Big Ben hangs them up or maybe gets injured again this year? Less worry about the passing game and Bell's numbers could go down.

 

I'm just playing devil's advocate here... Ultimately I would feel better if Bell has committed to camp and playing to start the year.

 

in a vacuum, yes i would sell him. he's got a ridiculous work load, injury history, off field issues, etc. that need to be taken into account. 

 

if you can land a back like Zeke/Barkley, absolutely. You may even be able to land 2 quality starters for Bell (Mccaffrey + ____ for example). I don't know what other owners will think, so can't really help further. I would be shopping him aggressively, that I do know - but not selling him for peanuts obviously. 

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Not that it's really any gamble, but I'm probably going Gurley, Zeke, DJ, and now Brown over Bell. Might even take a look at Fournette, Kamara, Barkley, and Hunt over him...

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I would comfortably take Gurley, DJ, and Zeke over Bell now. DJ and Zeke have some offensive issues but they are a much safer bet to play 16 games at a high level.

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5 hours ago, jccouger said:

So, are we looking at a possible hold out in to the season? 

 

Just wondering what the pros would be for Le'veon if he held himself out. With the franchise tag, the time for a restructured deal has already passed right? He doesn't really have any leverage any more and him missing games will only cost him money. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but even if the Steelers wanted to offer him 100 mill in guaranteed money right now they couldn't, right?

 

So really the only reason he would hold out would be to preserve his body for the end of the season when he can sign a massive contract. If he suffers a major injury this season his value will plummet, and he may decide missing out on 14 mill is worth it if he can guarantee himself a contract of ~70 mill after this year. 

 

I feel like there isn't a lot of info out there right now on this, but what Le'veon is saying (or lack or what he is saying) is making it seem like he may not report for week 1. 

 

He really has no leverage to sit out. If he misses an entire year his career is all but done. His best & only option is to play and have a great season. 

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16 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

I would comfortably take Gurley, DJ, and Zeke over Bell now. DJ and Zeke have some offensive issues but they are a much safer bet to play 16 games at a high level.

 

This is rediculus. First, if you want to say you’d consider these guys over him, fine. 

 

To say you’d “comfortably” take 4 guys over him, is just plain silly and means you aren’t watching enough football. This guy has by far the best track record of producing top RB #s, plays in a dominant offense where they can’t stack the box due to also having not only the top WR in the game but also a great #2 and also a rookie WR who looks great, AND a dominant offensive line.  Basically nobody else has this combo- not even Gurley since

he does not have a guy like AB at WR who demands constant attention.  

 

The only real concern is the # of touches he has has had/wear on him. But, I don’t think his touches equate to a normal RBs touches due to his elsusiveness and way he runs, nobody runs the way this guy does. I also think the contract is certainly a positive for him- it’s very clear this guy cares a LOT about money and wants to get paid. Some people think he’s a shoe in to still get paid no matter what- but if he goes out and drops 2300 total yards with 80+ catches, he has a much stronger case to demand his money. 

 

Im taking this guy 1 overall in full/half ppr, he’s money in the bank and I think we see a guy who comes in ready to rock and get paid this year. 

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1 minute ago, SportsBrain said:

 

This is rediculus. First, if you want to say you’d consider these guys over him, fine. 

 

To say you’d “comfortably” take 4 guys over him, is just plain silly and means you aren’t watching enough football. This guy has by far the best track record of producing top RB #s, plays in a dominant offense where they can’t stack the box due to also having not only the top WR in the game but also a great #2 and also a rookie WR who looks great, AND a dominant offensive line.  Basically nobody else has this combo- not even Gurley since

he does not have a guy like AB at WR who demands constant attention.  

 

The only real concern is the # of touches he has has had/wear on him. But, I don’t think his touches equate to a normal RBs touches due to his elsusiveness and way he runs, nobody runs the way this guy does. I also think the contract is certainly a positive for him- it’s very clear this guy cares a LOT about money and wants to get paid. Some people think he’s a shoe in to still get paid no matter what- but if he goes out and drops 2300 total yards with 80+ catches, he has a much stronger case to demand his money. 

 

Im taking this guy 1 overall in full/half ppr, he’s money in the bank and I think we see a guy who comes in ready to rock and get paid this year. 

There’s no denying the production when he’s on the field. I just don’t feel comfortable taking an early first rounder that could miss games. He may not miss any games or just be limited in week one. I for one, do not want that headache.

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I'm starting to get bad vibes that this guy is serious about missing some games. Not a good situation, lots of bitterness, and injury prone to boot....

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4 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

There’s no denying the production when he’s on the field. I just don’t feel comfortable taking an early first rounder that could miss games. He may not miss any games or just be limited in week one. I for one, do not want that headache.

Anybody can miss games- ask the DJ owners who took him over Bell last year and felt great about it. 

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1 minute ago, SportsBrain said:

Anybody can miss games- ask the DJ owners who took him over Bell last year and felt great about it. 

yea but this one we can actually see the writing on the wall, no one saw DJ's freak injury last year

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Just now, dakimbell said:

yea but this one we can actually see the writing on the wall, no one saw DJ's freak injury last year

 

What writing on the wall? We actually saw the exact same situation last year, so you should be even less concerned. He’s also getting paid more this year- ~1mm a game, and also has a contract to play for. People are just reading too much into this. 

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Just now, SportsBrain said:

 

What writing on the wall? We actually saw the exact same situation last year, so you should be even less concerned. He’s also getting paid more this year- ~1mm a game, and also has a contract to play for. People are just reading too much into this. 

ok, hope you're right, maybe I'm just a bit gunshy after losing DJ week 1 last year.

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3 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

 

What writing on the wall? We actually saw the exact same situation last year, so you should be even less concerned. He’s also getting paid more this year- ~1mm a game, and also has a contract to play for. People are just reading too much into this. 

IIR last year at this time he publicly said he would report for week one. This time he denies reporting on Labor Day. 

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4 hours ago, AngryBeavers said:

Bell is going to sit out the 1st 8 weeks and then report so he can be a FA at the end of the season.... he said reporting on Labor Day was fake news. I have quietly been grabbing Connor everywhere from unsuspecting Bell owners.... I have no link, just reading the tea leaves. 

 

3 hours ago, urban2014 said:

Are you guys for real? No actual news, just tea leafs

 

Tea leaves are very real, and reading them has been practiced in China for thousands of years. My cup tells me Bell will be traded to the Stark family and play for Winterfell.

 

b9662d2488dba968cd4d82c82c47ecf2a68e48ba

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