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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Um, have you been paying any attention at all?  The Steelers are doing everything they can to keep Bell away.  Now they are suddenly going to try to force Bell to report?  And no, the Steelers can't use the second tag again.  They would have to use the third tag.  That ain't happening.

 

FYI, I was the one that brought in that original information in a link. Since doing so, I have not seen it corroborated anywhere. Whether that means it's true or not, I don't know, because most journalists are lazy, and lawyer-speak in the CBA is not the most clear thing in the world. 

 

But I'm stating unequivocally that I think it would be stupid for the Steelers to even use the tag again if they could re-apply the second tag. The incentives don't align to do so, and they're not going to do it just out of spite and deal with this headache again.

 

And honestly, Bell would probably rather play for the Steelers under the 2019 franchise tag than risk getting injured on the limited amount of remaining guaranteed money if he reports to the Steelers in 2018. And being stuck in a timeshare or as a backup to Conner doesn't help his ability to negotiate an elite FA contract next year.

 

So coming back in 2018 has very limited upside for Bell, and extreme downside with the chance of a major injury. Everything points to waiting until 2019 being a much smarter decision for him.

 

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I agree the Steelers are very unlikely to use the exclusive tag on Bell again in 2019, whether is is the 2nd or 3rd tag.  I highly doubt there is an under-the-table agreement, since there appears to be zero trust between Bell and the team currently.

 

As for what Bell is thinking and what is motivating his decision, that is really hard to evaluate.  Because he has been all over the place with his statements, many of which contradict one another.  

 

The only thing we can go by are his actions.  And his actions have been not showing up, not proving to the public that he is in top shape, hitting the clubs, and jet-skiing down in Florida.

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I'm really curious to see the offers this guy gets from other teams next season after pulling all the BS he's pulled this year. I really think sitting out was one of the dumbest things he could have done this year. Sure there was a potential for injury, but he threw away 16 million dollars and did absolutely nothing but party in a contract year. I have a hard time believing any team is going to show him big money next year.

Edited by grimsfield
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5 minutes ago, grimsfield said:

I'm really curious to see the offers this guy gets from other teams next season after pulling all the BS he's pulled this year. I really think sitting out was one of the dumbest things he could have done this year. Sure there was a potential for injury, but he threw away 16 million dollars and did absolutely nothing but party in a contract year. I have a hard time believing any team is going to show him big money next year.

 

You need to delete your post. There’s absolutely no thought put into it at all. Football is a business and at Bell’s age he’s looking for a guaranteed long term deal for life after football. For you to say that he’s doing nothing but partying is embarrassing on your part. Nobody knows exactly what he’s doing at this moment but I would bet that he’s working out and staying in shape rather than laying around and partying with hookers, although the latter does sounds enticing. 

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7 minutes ago, Shortnphat said:

 

You need to delete your post. There’s absolutely no thought put into it at all. Football is a business and at Bell’s age he’s looking for a guaranteed long term deal for life after football. For you to say that he’s doing nothing but partying is embarrassing on your part. Nobody knows exactly what he’s doing at this moment but I would bet that he’s working out and staying in shape rather than laying around and partying with hookers, although the latter does sounds enticing. 

 

he can do both, he has time. Both are not bad options imo

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12 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

he can do both, he has time. Both are not bad options imo

 

I'm going to do neither. But when next year comes around feel free to pm me and call me an idiot if I'm wrong. I'll be fully willing to eat crow.

 

20 minutes ago, Shortnphat said:

 

You need to delete your post. There’s absolutely no thought put into it at all. Football is a business and at Bell’s age he’s looking for a guaranteed long term deal for life after football. For you to say that he’s doing nothing but partying is embarrassing on your part. Nobody knows exactly what he’s doing at this moment but I would bet that he’s working out and staying in shape rather than laying around and partying with hookers, although the latter does sounds enticing. 

 

I said he was doing nothing but partying because he's not on the field. We all know he's still working out. Nonetheless, he's not playing football, and that matters for quite a bit. Its not as if other teams can't see the shenanigans he's pulling with the steelers. Not every team in the league is willing to deal with a player like this, especially when they haven't played for a full year. And the fact that he's doing this, and expecting to be the highest paid RB in league history is somewhat mind boggling, especially when James conner is out there proving that a lot of his stats were at least partially a product of the O-line and the 1 man every down back system the steelers run.

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With Bell - .697 winning %, 23.9 PPG, 369.6 YPG, 51.9% Redzone TD %

Without Bell - .690 winning %, 29.0 PPG, 413.3 YPG, 68.1% Redzone TD %

 

Wow. Bell's agent has not only cost him ten to fifteen million dollars with this stunt, but it has also managed to actually DECREASE his value.

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Bell did fine to hold out. 

 

FIrst, he sent a message to owners that elite players do not have to play under the ridiculous, continued application of the franchise tag. They are not slave to dollars. This is bigger than Leveon. Maybe teams will show a bit more respect (to running backs because certain quarterbacks, even ones who are not as proven received MONSTER guaranteed dollars) to elite players. What team wants to deal with this PR mess or headache? Will they all have a James Conner waiting around? Maybe now, they actually consider the fact that it IS an option. Steelers were fortunate.

 

Second, he finishes the season healthy, strong, and ready to prove he is worth every penny he held out for. There are teams DEFINITELY interested in his services. Why else were there no bids? BEcause they didn't want him? Get real! They knew he would be a free agent soon enough! I'm sure he has been told as much. Teams will be bidding on the juice the moment they are able. He will get his money. No doubt about it. 

 

Third, and most important, James Conner owners got a "Bell" cow running back without the Leveon prices! If that is not a fairy tale ending, I don't know what is. The owner in my league still believes Bell is coming back like a poor kid sitting by the window waiting for pa to pick him up and take him huntin'. Listen to mama Junior, Pa really didn't go to the market.... and foosball isn't the devil! 

 

 

Edited by Fantasy Gooroo
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12 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Bell did fine to hold out. 

 

FIrst, he sent a message to owners that elite players do not have to play under the ridiculous, continued application of the franchise tag. They are not slave to dollars. This is bigger than Leveon. Maybe teams will show a bit more respect (to running backs because certain quarterbacks, even ones who are not as proven received MONSTER guaranteed dollars) to elite players. What team wants to deal with this PR mess or headache? Will they all have a James Conner waiting around? Maybe now, they actually consider the fact that it IS an option. Steelers were fortunate.

 

Second, he finishes the season healthy, strong, and ready to prove he is worth every penny he held out for. There are teams DEFINITELY interested in his services. Why else were there no bids? BEcause they didn't want him? Get real! They knew he would be a free agent soon enough! I'm sure he has been told as much. Teams will be bidding on the juice the moment they are able. He will get his money. No doubt about it. 

 

Third, and most important, James Conner owners got a "Bell" cow running back without the Leveon prices! If that is not a fairy tale ending, I don't know what is. The owner in my league still believes Bell is coming back like a poor kid sitting by the window waiting for pa to pick him up and take him huntin'. Listen to mama Junior, Pa really didn't go to the market.... and foosball isn't the devil! 

 

 

Good post.  I just got sad thinking of that poor kid sitting by the window, waiting for his dad.  Off to give my son a hug.  BRB.

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The Steelers front office tagged an elite player, stripping his negotiating powers, two years in a row.  Completely within their rights and a smart business move?  Sure, of course.  A d!*k move?  You bet.  Is Le'Veon  sitting out this year a gamble for his future monetary value?  No doubt.  Is it within his rights to do so?  Yep.  

 

So he gambled that 350-400 more touches on his body while approaching a FA market wouldn't leave himself with the best odds of guaranteed money more akin to Todd Gurley (45 mill) vs what the steelers offered him (10 mill).  To call him selfish while absolving the front office of being selfish too is ludicrous.  They played their hand strongly and then so did he in response to their decisions.  The Steelers don't give anyone guaranteed money past the first year.  If that's how they want to do business then great, but you should expect these stalemates to continue to occur if they never adapt.

 

If it werent for FFB, where now 1 in 10 to 12 people who play it hate this man, we could be talking about the reality of players vs owner's rights in such a violent, profitable sport.  

 

But that's not the reality, the reality is that anyone calling him selfish is most often an owner of him or an angry fan, and in turn they should probably look in the mirror to really answer who is being selfish here.

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25 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Bell did fine to hold out. 

 

FIrst, he sent a message to owners that elite players do not have to play under the ridiculous, continued application of the franchise tag. They are not slave to dollars. This is bigger than Leveon. Maybe teams will show a bit more respect (to running backs because certain quarterbacks, even ones who are not as proven received MONSTER guaranteed dollars) to elite players. What team wants to deal with this PR mess or headache? Will they all have a James Conner waiting around? Maybe now, they actually consider the fact that it IS an option. Steelers were fortunate.

 

Second, he finishes the season healthy, strong, and ready to prove he is worth every penny he held out for. There are teams DEFINITELY interested in his services. Why else were there no bids? BEcause they didn't want him? Get real! They knew he would be a free agent soon enough! I'm sure he has been told as much. Teams will be bidding on the juice the moment they are able. He will get his money. No doubt about it. 

 

Third, and most important, James Conner owners got a "Bell" cow running back without the Leveon prices! If that is not a fairy tale ending, I don't know what is. The owner in my league still believes Bell is coming back like a poor kid sitting by the window waiting for pa to pick him up and take him huntin'. Listen to mama Junior, Pa really didn't go to the market.... and foosball isn't the devil! 

 

 

 

Oops, looks like you beat me to posting in this thread some normalcy.  The poor kid analogy is priceless.

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36 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Bell did fine to hold out. 

 

FIrst, he sent a message to owners that elite players do not have to play under the ridiculous, continued application of the franchise tag. They are not slave to dollars. This is bigger than Leveon. Maybe teams will show a bit more respect (to running backs because certain quarterbacks, even ones who are not as proven received MONSTER guaranteed dollars) to elite players. What team wants to deal with this PR mess or headache? Will they all have a James Conner waiting around? Maybe now, they actually consider the fact that it IS an option. Steelers were fortunate.

 

Second, he finishes the season healthy, strong, and ready to prove he is worth every penny he held out for. There are teams DEFINITELY interested in his services. Why else were there no bids? BEcause they didn't want him? Get real! They knew he would be a free agent soon enough! I'm sure he has been told as much. Teams will be bidding on the juice the moment they are able. He will get his money. No doubt about it. 

 

Third, and most important, James Conner owners got a "Bell" cow running back without the Leveon prices! If that is not a fairy tale ending, I don't know what is. The owner in my league still believes Bell is coming back like a poor kid sitting by the window waiting for pa to pick him up and take him huntin'. Listen to mama Junior, Pa really didn't go to the market.... and foosball isn't the devil! 

 

 

Bell did fine, how so? He lost what could be $15M, and his value has gone DOWN. Bigger than Le'Veon? How has Kaep's stance worked out for him? It's cost him a career. This obviously won't cost Bell a career, but it's gonna cost him $10M-$20M. And did he blaze a trail for those after him to not be confined by the shackles of ownership and forced to play for top 5 money at his position? Time will tell I guess. Personally I don't think it makes a dent.

Will teams be interested? Of course, he's been one of the most productive RBs in the league for 5 years now. That said, a guy earning a few thousand over the league minimum has outproduced him. That certainly isn't going to help his cause. Just my two cents, but I don't think he ends up with a better contract than what Pitt offered him.

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2 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Let’s not compare Kaep to Leveon. Situations are nowhere near identical. Do better man.

You said he sent a message. And what message was that? I'm gonna cost myself $15M this year and then sign for less next year than what I could've already made? Boy that really stings for an owner. Or was the message that players need to stand up for themselves and not play for the "insulting" million dollars per game that the franchise tag would pay them? Lol.

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1 minute ago, BGDDYKWL said:

You said he sent a message. And what message was that? I'm gonna cost myself $15M this year and then sign for less next year than what I could've already made? Boy that really stings for an owner. Or was the message that players need to stand up for themselves and not play for the "insulting" million dollars per game that the franchise tag would pay them? Lol.

 

Kaep touched a political third rail. Bell has not. Kaep effectively got him blackballed from the league. Bell will get a long-term contract next year. Completely different situations.

 

Now, Bell may have hurt himself financially. That remains to be seen. You have to balance whatever is guaranteed in his next contract vs the $14.5M he would have gotten playing under the tag. But even if he doesn't get Gurley money--even if he "only" gets $20M guaranteed--he's done better than what Pitt was offering because he was one injury away from that $14.5M being the end of his playing career.

 

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27 minutes ago, bwarbiany said:

 

Kaep touched a political third rail. Bell has not. Kaep effectively got him blackballed from the league. Bell will get a long-term contract next year. Completely different situations.

 

Now, Bell may have hurt himself financially. That remains to be seen. You have to balance whatever is guaranteed in his next contract vs the $14.5M he would have gotten playing under the tag. But even if he doesn't get Gurley money--even if he "only" gets $20M guaranteed--he's done better than what Pitt was offering because he was one injury away from that $14.5M being the end of his playing career.

 

Kaep is a replacement level QB who displays poor leadership and brings nothing but a media circus and distraction with him.

Le'Veon is (presumably) one of the top players at his position.

 

Le'Veon found the working conditions presented to him unacceptable and chose not to sign the contract.  The only thing you can fault him for is being indecisive and not communicating his refusal to sign earlier and more firmly. 

But otherwise, it's the same as anybody not taking a job they feel doesn't offer enough money.  I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm not gonna take a $1/hr job.  Bell's decided that he's not going to take a $155k/week job, and there's nothing wrong with that.  He's not obligated to do anything if he's not under contract, and he's not obligated to sign a contract just because people expect him to.

Whether or not it turns out to be a wise choice is an entirely different debate.

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This whole thread sounds like a “my dad can beat your dad up” depending on if you drafted Bell or not. Rather good material to read while taking a #2

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

You said he sent a message. And what message was that? I'm gonna cost myself $15M this year and then sign for less next year than what I could've already made? Boy that really stings for an owner. Or was the message that players need to stand up for themselves and not play for the "insulting" million dollars per game that the franchise tag would pay them? Lol.

 

What are you talking about? The Steelers plan was to franchise him, run him into ground and then cut him loose...his offer was the franchise at 14.5 this year. You’re saying he will sign for less than that next year? Huh?

 

He will likely get a long term deal this offseason and it will certainly be for more than 14.5 million.

 

Some people really need to actually research things before forming opinions. It’s like people listen to one guys take on ESPN about something, don’t research shy facts and then regurgitate the same bull**** as their own.

 

To say he will likely sign next year for less than “what Pitt offered” is ignorant.

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This thread is so useless. I love it. No one knows what is happening. The amount of condescending posts is ridiculous. Mine included. :)

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6 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

 How has Kaep's stance worked out for him? It's cost him a career. 

 

Ehhh, that wasn't the point of Kaep's stance.  And his stance has actually been a success for what he set out to succeed.  I'm sure that Nike ad paid a pretty penny too.

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various folks here keep mentioning "bell value has gone down".... I am confused, how? No injury, still same heavily talented bell, how is his value down?

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6 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Bell did fine, how so? He lost what could be $15M, and his value has gone DOWN. Bigger than Le'Veon? How has Kaep's stance worked out for him? It's cost him a career. This obviously won't cost Bell a career, but it's gonna cost him $10M-$20M. And did he blaze a trail for those after him to not be confined by the shackles of ownership and forced to play for top 5 money at his position? Time will tell I guess. Personally I don't think it makes a dent.

Will teams be interested? Of course, he's been one of the most productive RBs in the league for 5 years now. That said, a guy earning a few thousand over the league minimum has outproduced him. That certainly isn't going to help his cause. Just my two cents, but I don't think he ends up with a better contract than what Pitt offered him.

 

You may want to look closer at what Pittsburg offered him. Yes the big numbers of 5 yrs 70mill sound nice but only 10 mill of that was guaranteed, aka that was an insulting offer and Bell would've been better off accepting the franchise tag this year and (assuming Pitt doesn't tag him again) trying his luck on the open market next year. They lowballed him since they have most of the power in this situation with RBs being what they are and the franchise tag eliminating Bell's fall-back options. Bell was never going to win in this situation but he atleast hasn't significantly hurt his prospects of making money in the future and hasn't helped the Steelers (although with Connor playing so well he hasn't hurt them as much as he probably envisioned). 

 

Kaepernick isn't a good comparison at all completely different talents at completely different stages of their career with completely different ramifications, rationales and a whole lot of things. 

 

Le'Veon Bell may have very well cost himself money and he undoubtedly did in the short term. "Betting on oneself" is something players of all sports do when they think they can get more than they are offered. Bell will never "make-back" the money he has lost by sitting out next year, in the sense that his contract won't be bigger due to him having sat out. What sitting out does do for him however, is minimize the chance that this years $15M wasn't the last considerable contract he sees. I think due to minimizing the wear he takes this year sitting out won't net him money but I think it was a good long term move since it makes him more likely to sign a bigger, longer contract next year. If he played this year and didn't get injured he probably would've made more money but my two cents is that he is better off not playing this year and making sure he secures a long term deal rather than play for a team that didn't want to commit to him and gave a rather insulting offer. 

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