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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Sorry sir I will not be able to divulge that and it has very little to do with the skill set since they are transferable to other industries, it's simply a business that has significant barriers of entry with regards to capital and government regulation, thus severely limiting the participants who can do it profitably. . . lots of businesses out there with limited markets participants, the NFL is not unique in that regard. .  take a look at oil refining vs the global population that consumes refined oil  :)

sorry...but your situation is not remotely close to Bell's 2019 job market.  Nice try.

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And if your situation was actually that limited, you should be the 1st to acknowledge that I'm right in saying he'll have a difficult time getting what he's looking for.

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14 minutes ago, psygolf said:

And if your situation was actually that limited, you should be the 1st to acknowledge that I'm right in saying he'll have a difficult time getting what he's looking for.

Others believe you are wrong. 

The one person who made this decision is banking on you being wrong. Time will tell. 

This attitude I know everything makes you look weak. 

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I can totally see Gruden & the Raiders throwing $$$ at him. The more you think about the situation it absolutely makes sense.

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15 hours ago, psygolf said:

Do you work in a field that has only 32 companies to work for?

 

14 hours ago, dashoe said:

actually fewer than a dozen

 

14 hours ago, psygolf said:

nationwide? ...doubtful

 

13 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

HAHA that's rich you want to tell me about my business. . .:rolleyes:

 And when  I say less than a dozen I meant GLOBALLY. . .:lol:

 

22 minutes ago, psygolf said:

sorry...but your situation is not remotely close to Bell's 2019 job market.  Nice try.

 

 

HAHA dude you are teh one who asked me the question of did I work in a field with 32 companies and I answered the question. 

You didn't like my answer and now you tell me 'nice try".  i didnt try anything, you did and it didnt pan out the way you wanted to fit your premise :lol:

 

You are making a very muddled argument because you are misguided in your application of basic supply and demand concepts.

The scarcity value in the NFL vs Bell is not the number or teams available, the scarcity value is the number of every down rb's who can run and catch and produce at a high output and are available to be acquired

 Currently there is DJ-Gurley-Conners-Barkley-freeman-mcoy-cmc-bell-gordon. 9 rb's and only one ONE is a FA next season who's services can be secured by a team in the open market. I would even argue tevin coleman has the same skill set but he doesnt have the proven production of bell.

 

Bell will be in a market where let's say 10 teams have a legitimate shot at securing his services basically  1/3 of NFL teams competing in an open auction for him. That's how supply and demand works in a market searching for  a scarce resource.

Bell will more than likely get a solid deal next season, the market is in his favor.

 

 

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11 hours ago, cs3 said:

Ahahaaahahaha! 

Huge lol at thinking Le'Veon is doing this to "take care of his family". The only person he's thought about this entire year is himself... and he couldn't even get that right.

 

For sake of argument we can stipulate that.  Thing is the Steelers also didn't think through the second and third order effects of trying to tag Bell again after a lowball contract offer (and let's be honest, that's what it was regardless of whether  you think Bell was "worth" X dollars or not).  Knowing they're in a closing SB window with Big Ben halfway out the door and openly musing about retirement, the logical thing is to go all in to win the Lombardi.  Instead they hold fast to a cheap bastard offer for Bell followed by tagging him again when he's already said he wouldn't play under the tag again.  Let's play out the potential outcomes of this scenario:  

 

Steelers "win" scenarios: 

 

1.  Bell signs the tag and is disgruntled but still plays, they save a few million dollars in cap space (which will be irrelevant soon after Big Ben retires anyway).  

 

Steelers "lose" scenarios: 

 

2.  Bell refuses to sign the tag and sits out,  Conner is a flop and it's a lost season for them.  Worst case scenario Big Ben retires at years end and their SB window slams shut completely. 

 

3.  Bell refuses to sign the tag and sits out, Conner succeeds and does great.  Steelers still lose because of the opportunity cost of having tagged Bell means they had to account for the escrow money if he *HAD* signed.  Which means that although he didn't play, they had to plan as if he would.  Which reduced the salary cap available to them to sign another FA who actually would have played for them (like a LB to replace Ryan Shazier, or maybe a backup to Conner who isn't a random JAG like Ridley).  In fantasy football terms, it's like in an auction draft they refused to pay up for the top players and as a result ended up with $25 of their $200 in auction money unspent when the draft is over.  

 

So basically to save a few cap dollars they tried to screw Bell hoping he would report anyway, and because he didn't report the end result of them "saving" those cap dollars means their team was weaker than it could have been in 2018.  All in order to (maybe) let them have some more cap money in 2019 and it won't matter because Big Ben may be gone and Josh Dobbs is the QB.  

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23 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The scarcity value in the NFL vs Bell is not the number or teams available, the scarcity value is the number of every down rb's who can run and catch and produce at a high output and are available to be acquired

 Currently there is DJ-Gurley-Conners-Barkley-freeman-mcoy-cmc-bell-gordon. 9 rb's and only one ONE is a FA next season who's services can be secured by a team in the open market. I would even argue tevin coleman has the same skill set but he doesnt have the proven production of bell.

 

Bell will be in a market where let's say 10 teams have a legitimate shot at securing his services basically  1/3 of NFL teams competing in an open auction for him. That's how supply and demand works in a market searching for  a scarce resource.

Bell will more than likely get a solid deal next season, the market is in his favor.

I disagree.  For one thing, the NFL owners are quite capable of colluding sufficiently to make a prime example of one player to send a message to all the rest.  They have done it before, they are likely doing it currently, and quite possibly will do it to Bell.  He has defied one of the founding families, the Rooney's, and the shield itself in rather brazen fashion.

For another, the NFL is a copycat league.  The teams that have succeeded are teams with great QBs, LTs, pass rush and cornerbacks.  A really good O-line helps, too.  Teams just don't win in this league anymore by building around a superstar running back.

Last, there will be 5-6 minimum, and likely a greater number, of hot running backs coming out of the draft next year.  These guys will be available for a tiny fraction of the price Bell thinks he will command.

And all of that would apply to Bell even if he did not feature multiple drug suspensions on his resume.  And if he had played continuously instead of being away for the game for well over a year.  His market is not going be nearly as hot as he and his clueless agent thinks it will be.

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11 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I disagree.  For one thing, the NFL owners are quite capable of colluding sufficiently to make a prime example of one player to send a message to all the rest.  They have done it before, they are likely doing it currently, and quite possibly will do it to Bell.  He has defied one of the founding families, the Rooney's, and the shield itself in rather brazen fashion.

For another, the NFL is a copycat league.  The teams that have succeeded are teams with great QBs, LTs, pass rush and cornerbacks.  A really good O-line helps, too.  Teams just don't win in this league anymore by building around a superstar running back.

Last, there will be 5-6 minimum, and likely a greater number, of hot running backs coming out of the draft next year.  These guys will be available for a tiny fraction of the price Bell thinks he will command.

And all of that would apply to Bell even if he did not feature multiple drug suspensions on his resume.  And if he had played continuously instead of being away for the game for well over a year.  His market is not going be nearly as hot as he and his clueless agent thinks it will be.

 

I don’t think we’re on the level of the NFL owners blackballing Bell.  If you have talent you’ll get an offer of some sort...somewhere.    Eric Reid finally did, and he sued the league lol.  

 

But is that offer on Gurleys level?   Maybe DJ?  Or has he colored himself more mercenary than franchise cornerstone?  

 

If the best deals he gets are one year prove it or 2/22 M type guarantees— you’ll be proven correct.    But we’ll see.  

Edited by Impreza178
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16 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

For sake of argument we can stipulate that.  Thing is the Steelers also didn't think through the second and third order effects of trying to tag Bell again after a lowball contract offer (and let's be honest, that's what it was regardless of whether  you think Bell was "worth" X dollars or not).  Knowing they're in a closing SB window with Big Ben halfway out the door and openly musing about retirement, the logical thing is to go all in to win the Lombardi.  Instead they hold fast to a cheap bastard offer for Bell followed by tagging him again when he's already said he wouldn't play under the tag again.  Let's play out the potential outcomes of this scenario:  

 

Steelers "win" scenarios: 

 

1.  Bell signs the tag and is disgruntled but still plays, they save a few million dollars in cap space (which will be irrelevant soon after Big Ben retires anyway).  

 

Steelers "lose" scenarios: 

 

2.  Bell refuses to sign the tag and sits out,  Conner is a flop and it's a lost season for them.  Worst case scenario Big Ben retires at years end and their SB window slams shut completely. 

 

3.  Bell refuses to sign the tag and sits out, Conner succeeds and does great.  Steelers still lose because of the opportunity cost of having tagged Bell means they had to account for the escrow money if he *HAD* signed.  Which means that although he didn't play, they had to plan as if he would.  Which reduced the salary cap available to them to sign another FA who actually would have played for them (like a LB to replace Ryan Shazier, or maybe a backup to Conner who isn't a random JAG like Ridley).  In fantasy football terms, it's like in an auction draft they refused to pay up for the top players and as a result ended up with $25 of their $200 in auction money unspent when the draft is over.  

 

So basically to save a few cap dollars they tried to screw Bell hoping he would report anyway, and because he didn't report the end result of them "saving" those cap dollars means their team was weaker than it could have been in 2018.  All in order to (maybe) let them have some more cap money in 2019 and it won't matter because Big Ben may be gone and Josh Dobbs is the QB.  

I like it except what if

 

4.  Steelers play hard ball, Bell sits out, Conner emerges as a top-5 back, Steelers go on a magical run and win the third Superbowl of Ben's career.  Then they gain a third round comp pick for Bell leaving in free agency, and they gain abiding credibility in contract negotiations with their own star players going forward.

 

We all know Bell thought the Steelers were going to struggle without him and beg for his return.  Hence the cat-and-mouse social media antics and the marionetting of Fowler and Rapoport to get the message out.  It all fell very, very flat because the Steelers were nothing but a stone wall to all of it.

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

I disagree.  For one thing, the NFL owners are quite capable of colluding sufficiently to make a prime example of one player to send a message to all the rest.  They have done it before, they are likely doing it currently, and quite possibly will do it to Bell.  He has defied one of the founding families, the Rooney's, and the shield itself in rather brazen fashion.

 

Maybe in the past but the NFL is increasingly being run by guys with MBA's, real world corporate business experience and a focus on the bottom line, the old guard you are speaking of is retiring,dying or cashing out.  Also collusion over a rb who sat out is the worst possible business decision and message to send when you are about to negotiate a new CBA. Also players today have the funds to fight the NFL in court so I doubt if they want to risk  a lawsuit where they have to turn over evidence  that would expose collusion. Completely impractical

 

 

Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

For another, the NFL is a copycat league.  The teams that have succeeded are teams with great QBs, LTs, pass rush and cornerbacks.  A really good O-line helps, too.  Teams just don't win in this league anymore by building around a superstar running back.

 

You are correct it is a copycat league and recently teams have been spending significant draft capital(cmc-barkley) and signing every down rb's to extensions(Gurley-DJ).

The fact that the steelers tagged a rb 2x is evidence of the value of an every down rb. 

So yes  there is current evidence that bell's skill sets are quite valuable to teams.

So some  teams are building around superstar rb's, gurley-dj-barkley are forming a trend

 

 

Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Last, there will be 5-6 minimum, and likely a greater number, of hot running backs coming out of the draft next year.  These guys will be available for a tiny fraction of the price Bell thinks he will command.

And all of that would apply to Bell even if he did not feature multiple drug suspensions on his resume.  And if he had played continuously instead of being away for the game for well over a year.  His market is not going be nearly as hot as he and his clueless agent thinks it will be.

 

New rookie rb's have a place for those teams who won't be able to compete for a pro bowl proven every down rb. 

once again you keep glossing over that his former team tagged him 2x and gurley and dj were extended.  Also no drug issues in the last few years so not sure why that would be an issue when u can easily attach a substance abuse clause in the contract to recoup or nullify if triggered.

 

I see a whole lot of "what if' in hihgly improbable scenarios because you are talking about a population of teams who essentially would not compete  for bell to begin with and that applies to any FA,  there is only going to be a percentage of eligible bidders for any given FA. . . not all 32 teams bid on each FA

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58 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Maybe in the past but the NFL is increasingly being run by guys with MBA's, real world corporate business experience and a focus on the bottom line, the old guard you are speaking of is retiring,dying or cashing out.  Also collusion over a rb who sat out is the worst possible business decision and message to send when you are about to negotiate a new CBA. Also players today have the funds to fight the NFL in court so I doubt if they want to risk  a lawsuit where they have to turn over evidence  that would expose collusion. Completely impractical

 

 

 

You are correct it is a copycat league and recently teams have been spending significant draft capital(cmc-barkley) and signing every down rb's to extensions(Gurley-DJ).

The fact that the steelers tagged a rb 2x is evidence of the value of an every down rb. 

So yes  there is current evidence that bell's skill sets are quite valuable to teams.

So some  teams are building around superstar rb's, gurley-dj-barkley are forming a trend

 

 

 

New rookie rb's have a place for those teams who won't be able to compete for a pro bowl proven every down rb. 

once again you keep glossing over that his former team tagged him 2x and gurley and dj were extended.  Also no drug issues in the last few years so not sure why that would be an issue when u can easily attach a substance abuse clause in the contract to recoup or nullify if triggered.

 

I see a whole lot of "what if' in hihgly improbable scenarios because you are talking about a population of teams who essentially would not compete  for bell to begin with and that applies to any FA,  there is only going to be a percentage of eligible bidders for any given FA. . . not all 32 teams bid on each FA

 

Oof :blink:.   I’m trying not to hammer you everyday on this thread, dashoe...but you’re making it tough :P

 

  The NFL is very much a good ole boys club- it hasn’t changed at all in that regard.    The owners are middle aged or older men who hire ex players or recycled execs as GMs.   Coaches have gotten younger to some degree but they don’t generally make these decisions.    It’s not collusion at all— it’s groupthink.   Avoid distractions, avoid being stuck with dead money.   

 

As far as there being evidence that rbs have elite value-  there’s very little.    2 teams locked up rbs who have everything going for them that bell doesn’t.  Young, lots of tread, upstanding character,  public face of the team.   2 teams overdrafted rbs in the eyes of the vast majority...and as talented as CMAC and Saq. are...we’ll see if it does their franchise any good.      It’s far from the prevailing view.    Most teams are correctly prioritizing positions that are proven to generate wins .  Lines, defense, qb.  

Edited by Impreza178
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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Oof :blink:.   I’m trying not to hammer you everyday on this thread, dashoe...but you’re making it tough :P

 

  The NFL is very much a good ole boys club- it hasn’t changed at all in that regard.    The owners are middle aged or older men who hire ex players or recycled execs as GMs.   Coaches have gotten younger to some degree but they don’t generally make these decisions.    It’s not collusion at all— it’s groupthink.   Avoid distractions, avoid being stuck with dead money.   

 

As far as there being evidence that rbs have elite value-  there’s very little.    2 teams locked up rbs who have everything going for them that bell doesn’t.  Young, lots of tread, upstanding character,  public face of the team.   2 teams overdrafted rbs in the eyes of the vast majority...and as talented as CMAC and Saq. are...we’ll see if it does their franchise any good.      It’s far from the prevailing view.    Most teams are correctly prioritizing positions that are proven to generate wins .  Lines, defense, qb.  

 

Teams can often do economically irrational things so there's decent reason to think someone will pay Bell.  It's obviously not a slam dunk but it's not drawing to an inside strait either. 

 

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2017/03/07/are-the-bears-really-bidding-against-themselves-for-mike-glennon/

 

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19 hours ago, The 7th Beatles said:

Image result for tom herman gif

And after that they had a group sing along to "Before He Cheats" by Carrie Underwood. They all feel very liberated by that and Bell's stinky gym shoes and underwear. 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Maybe in the past but the NFL is increasingly being run by guys with MBA's, real world corporate business experience and a focus on the bottom line, the old guard you are speaking of is retiring,dying or cashing out.  Also collusion over a rb who sat out is the worst possible business decision and message to send when you are about to negotiate a new CBA. Also players today have the funds to fight the NFL in court so I doubt if they want to risk  a lawsuit where they have to turn over evidence  that would expose collusion. Completely impractical

 

 

 

You are correct it is a copycat league and recently teams have been spending significant draft capital(cmc-barkley) and signing every down rb's to extensions(Gurley-DJ).

The fact that the steelers tagged a rb 2x is evidence of the value of an every down rb. 

So yes  there is current evidence that bell's skill sets are quite valuable to teams.

So some  teams are building around superstar rb's, gurley-dj-barkley are forming a trend

 

 

 

New rookie rb's have a place for those teams who won't be able to compete for a pro bowl proven every down rb. 

once again you keep glossing over that his former team tagged him 2x and gurley and dj were extended.  Also no drug issues in the last few years so not sure why that would be an issue when u can easily attach a substance abuse clause in the contract to recoup or nullify if triggered.

 

I see a whole lot of "what if' in hihgly improbable scenarios because you are talking about a population of teams who essentially would not compete  for bell to begin with and that applies to any FA,  there is only going to be a percentage of eligible bidders for any given FA. . . not all 32 teams bid on each FA

Maybe.  Not sure about the sterling honesty in general of corporate execs with MBAs and fancy suits.

But leaving that all aside, Bell is in grave danger of entering T.O. territory.  

At the end of his career, Owens could definitely still play.  But his amount of drama and headache and demanding the ball outweighed what teams perceived he could accomplish between the stripes.  If you don't think Bell has undermined his standing with respect to the entire league with his stunt here in 2018, you need to go back to Econ 101 and review cost/benefit analysis.

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30 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Oof :blink:.   I’m trying not to hammer you everyday on this thread, dashoe...but you’re making it tough :P

 

  The NFL is very much a good ole boys club- it hasn’t changed at all in that regard.    The owners are middle aged or older men who hire ex players or recycled execs as GMs.   Coaches have gotten younger to some degree but they don’t generally make these decisions.    It’s not collusion at all— it’s groupthink.   Avoid distractions, avoid being stuck with dead money.   

 

As far as there being evidence that rbs have elite value-  there’s very little.    2 teams locked up rbs who have everything going for them that bell doesn’t.  Young, lots of tread, upstanding character,  public face of the team.   2 teams overdrafted rbs in the eyes of the vast majority...and as talented as CMAC and Saq. are...we’ll see if it does their franchise any good.      It’s far from the prevailing view.    Most teams are correctly prioritizing positions that are proven to generate wins .  Lines, defense, qb.  

 

it's a debate on opinions, hammer away sir.  i promise my tears will never reach my keyboard. 

 

The NFL is a former old boys club that has been evolving into a  bottom line centric model where the old boys are now evolvig and being replaced by those in the MBA mold. Those days of owners treating teams like pet projects  and hobbies have changed with MBA style metrics and business principles and the revenues to match. Teams don't answer to local fans anymore they answer to broadcasting networks, corporate luxury suite buyers, apparrel makers, commercia sponsors  and corporations who purchase stadium naming rights.

Al Davis types have been mostly replaced by owners who have partners in terms of investors or family trusts where they have to answer to others for their decisions. (for example  broncos team run by an appointed board of trustees as family members fight for control)

 

Once again you along with many others are  focusing on avg rb market values. There is another market for elite rb's with elite skill sets and yes teams are paying for and drafting for those elite skill sets which is why there is only a handful of them in the league.  No different than values established for elite QB vs bridge QB's, every position has multiple markets. 

Now you can debate are elite rb's worth it but it doesnt change the fact that there is a market for what is considered elite rb talent and some teams are willing to pay for it. 

Edited by dashoe

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Seems like the O line and Steelers D did most of it. At least Conner wasnt there

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27 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

Teams can often do economically irrational things so there's decent reason to think someone will pay Bell.  It's obviously not a slam dunk but it's not drawing to an inside strait either. 

 

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2017/03/07/are-the-bears-really-bidding-against-themselves-for-mike-glennon/

 

I think someone will pay bell,  just not what he wants-  which is Gurley money

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

HAHA dude you are teh one who asked me the question of did I work in a field with 32 companies and I answered the question. 

You didn't like my answer and now you tell me 'nice try".  i didnt try anything, you did and it didnt pan out the way you wanted to fit your premise :lol:

 

You are making a very muddled argument because you are misguided in your application of basic supply and demand concepts.

The scarcity value in the NFL vs Bell is not the number or teams available, the scarcity value is the number of every down rb's who can run and catch and produce at a high output and are available to be acquired

 Currently there is DJ-Gurley-Conners-Barkley-freeman-mcoy-cmc-bell-gordon. 9 rb's and only one ONE is a FA next season who's services can be secured by a team in the open market. I would even argue tevin coleman has the same skill set but he doesnt have the proven production of bell.

 

Bell will be in a market where let's say 10 teams have a legitimate shot at securing his services basically  1/3 of NFL teams competing in an open auction for him. That's how supply and demand works in a market searching for  a scarce resource.

Bell will more than likely get a solid deal next season, the market is in his favor.

 

 

You didn't answer...you played "peek-a-boo"

 

The young Gurley-DJ-Conner-Barkley-Akamara-CMC-Gordon-Elliott's of the world are all reasons why many (if not all) of those teams will not fight for an older option that is one strike away from a full-suspension.   

 

 

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Officially out of the LeVeon Bell business in my long standing Keeper league.  Had to give up a lot but I was able to acquire CMac.  Ended up costing me Bell, Sony Michel and a pick.  Not sure I was going to be able to find a spot for Bell anyway with AK41, AB and Nuke already on the roster.  

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Just now, psygolf said:

You didn't answer...you played "peek-a-boo"

 

The young Gurley-DJ-Conner-Barkley-Akamara-CMC-Gordon-Elliott's of the world are all reasons why many (if not all) of those teams will not fight for an older option that is one strike away from a full-suspension.   

 

 

 

 1. I did fully answer your initial question... dont spin the facts :)

2. It was your follow up question in which I exercised my discretion  as to how I answered

3. you severely underestimate the determination of teams to win in a competitive market such as FA if they believe that FA is what they need.

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What's funny about all of this is the fact that in 2 more years, if Conner keeps up his level of play, he will be going through the very same song and dance.

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7 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You didn't answer...you played "peek-a-boo"

 

The young Gurley-DJ-Conner-Barkley-Akamara-CMC-Gordon-Elliott's of the world are all reasons why many (if not all) of those teams will not fight for an older option that is one strike away from a full-suspension.   

 

 

 

Bingo.  This isn’t bazeball where you’re paid for what you’ve done.    It’s based off what you have in the tank and how much they trust you to maximize that.     Your list is the correct one for rbs to soon get elite money

 

maybe add Mixon?   We’ll see

Edited by Impreza178

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Others believe you are wrong. 

The one person who made this decision is banking on you being wrong. Time will tell. 

This attitude I know everything makes you look weak. 

smh...I do not come here to "flex"

 

My 2 cents buys just as much as another's, and right now my feeling is that he will be disappointed in his decision, I am not trying to convince anyone to come aboard with me.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 1. I did fully answer your initial question... dont spin the facts :)

2. It was your follow up question in which I exercised my discretion  as to how I answered

3. you severely underestimate the determination of teams to win in a competitive market such as FA if they believe that FA is what they need.

3.  I am rarely wrong on these contract situations/market value.   I am more than happy to see it play out.

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