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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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47 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I don't think it's a short sell, it's a very realistic view of what Ingram offers vs Bell.  Bells key distinction is his ability to run routes as a wr which gives the OC  more options for his offense. 

 it's not simply plug in this guy vs this guy for this system to get x production, it's what does the guy bring to the offense that can be used to exploit the defense. Bell gives an OC more options to exploit the defense. There is a a reason my kamara is more valuable in his role on the saints offense than Ingram is, kamra gives Sean more options in the passing game whereas ingram doesnt. 

Fanstay guys focus too much on boxscore production and they don't look at what the talent can do in real world football in terms of what the offense is attempting to ddo on the field. So yes conners is just as productive as bell from a numbers perspective but Conners is not being used exactly the same way bell was int hat offense. The OC has adapated to the talent he has to work with and exploiting defenses that plays to conners strenghts.

In a matchup of Ingram v. Bell the runaway winner is Ingram because he did not take a year off from football to go clubbing, jet-skiing, and playing pickup bball with rec leaguers in the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

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42 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

I would think it would rank like this

 

1) Jets

2) Raiders

3) Texans

 

Texans are my darkhorse favorite for him, I dont know about cap space, but he would be a great fit to an already dynamically improving offense

 

Sleeper : Philly- so he can get 10 touches a game and stay fresh for his next next contract

 

 

How about an even more dark horse candidate - Saints sell out their future to pick him up to replace Ingram (gone in FA) in one final attempt to win another ring before Brees retires.  

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2 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

You guys are still talking in here?:lol:

Sure what’s the hurry? :D

 

Next time they lock this thread is for good.  

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6 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

How about an even more dark horse candidate - Saints sell out their future to pick him up to replace Ingram (gone in FA) in one final attempt to win another ring before Brees retires.  

The candidates for Bell's services are only the most poorly run franchises in the league.  Talking Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, and the like.  No smart organization will get anywhere near Mr. Bell.

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1 hour ago, lvsaint429 said:

I would actually give the edge to the Jets because of the money. I wonder if Gruden would (legitimately) question Bell’s commitment to football. The Jets would probably just blindly throw money at Bell

 

If you're talking about a concern coming from Gruden, the only thing we can be assured is that it won't be legitimate.

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47 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

 

Cap space /= money.  When you hand out 35M guaranteed, you have to put that money in a specified account immediately.    There’s already been speculation the primary motivator in dealing Mack was lack of cash.  

 

“It appeared from the outside that it was a no-brainer for the Raiders to retain Mack and sign him to an extension, but that’s not taking into account the equity owner Mark Davis already has tied up in his attempt to move the team to Las Vegas.

Although Davis was not required to hand over all the money when Mack signed a new deal but he would’ve been required to deposit tens of millions of dollars into the star’s bank account shortly after completing the deal.

Many believe that Davis simply did not have the available funds to do so. The message this sends to future players Oakland would like to resign is that no matter what your production is on the field the Raiders could lack the cash to get the deal done. Talking to you Amari Cooper.”

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/raiderswire.usatoday.com/2018/09/01/raiders-owner-mark-davis-lacked-funds-to-pay-khalil-mack/amp/

 

This was in September....the writer even nails Cooper being next to go.  

Good time to rebuild when you’re tapped out! 

I don't think they would give Gruden that kind of contract if they were having financial difficulty.

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26 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The candidates for Bell's services are only the most poorly run franchises in the league.  Talking Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, and the like.  No smart organization will get anywhere near Mr. Bell.

 

Lots of folks argued that Kirk Cousins would definitely get signed by the same teams you mentioned but it was MIN that actually signed him. Fact is the Saints have cap space in 2019, the 2 featured backs system has worked well in NO, and the team is in the twilight of Brees' career.  An offensive core of Brees with a 3 headed monster of Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Bell (upgraded Ingram who can line up in the slot, etc) would be nearly unstoppable.  You can't double team any of the 3 as the other 2 would eat you alive.  That's gotta be something the Saints would consider as a one last push for the Lombardi even if the cap hit in 2021 and beyond would delay the inevitable rebuild by 2 or 3 years. 

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24 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

I don't think they would give Gruden that kind of contract if they were having financial difficulty.

 

His contract is heavily backloaded for the same reasons.  Bell is the kind of player the Raiders would be trading away right now.  

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/06/grudens-contract-is-backloaded/

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45 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The candidates for Bell's services are only the most poorly run franchises in the league.  Talking Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Raiders, and the like.  No smart organization will get anywhere near Mr. Bell.

I dont agree with this at all. A rushing attack is still very important dynamic for teams with playoff hopes. QBs still define sucess or failure..but most teams dont have the next tom brady or aaron rodgers. So you need a solid 2 dimensional offense.

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55 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

His contract is heavily backloaded for the same reasons.  Bell is the kind of player the Raiders would be trading away right now.  

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/06/grudens-contract-is-backloaded/

 

In the contract sense, you're right. But whether they go after him once he's out of contract is a different story.

 

John Gruden thinks of himself as an 'old school' football guy. You get a team of guys who are 'tough', you run them in practice until they puke, and you go out and win football games. Yaaargh. Gruden would do away with concussion protocols and medical tents and personal fouls and injury designations and all that other 'sissy crap' if he had his way. That's been his persona all along.

 

John Gruden really really wishes his last name was 'Madden'.

 

So I'd bet heavily on his recruitment 'strategy' being all and only the following: meet with a guy, look him in the eye, ask if he'll be 'tough', ask him if he 'wants to win', shake his hand, and go on your 'gut feeling'. Basically, if he thinks a guy is 'his type of guy', I wouldn't think salary/contract issues would be anything he'd care about. Let the guys in the suits deal with that, 'he's my guy!'. And if you're not 'his guy', he'll ship you out even if it means his defense gets 5 sacks all year or his QB has only Jordy Nelson's left leg to throw to.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Brotherbock said:

 

In the contract sense, you're right. But whether they go after him once he's out of contract is a different story.

 

John Gruden thinks of himself as an 'old school' football guy. You get a team of guys who are 'tough', you run them in practice until they puke, and you go out and win football games. Yaaargh. Gruden would do away with concussion protocols and medical tents and personal fouls and injury designations and all that other 'sissy crap' if he had his way. That's been his persona all along.

 

John Gruden really really wishes his last name was 'Madden'.

 

So I'd bet heavily on his recruitment 'strategy' being all and only the following: meet with a guy, look him in the eye, ask if he'll be 'tough', ask him if he 'wants to win', shake his hand, and go on your 'gut feeling'. Basically, if he thinks a guy is 'his type of guy', I wouldn't think salary/contract issues would be anything he'd care about. Let the guys in the suits deal with that, 'he's my guy!'. And if you're not 'his guy', he'll ship you out even if it means his defense gets 5 sacks all year or his QB has only Jordy Nelson's left leg to throw to.

 

 

 

 

Extraordinary good sir.  19/10.  Only suggestion?  Repost in the Oakland Raiders 2018 Outlook thread.

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22 hours ago, mongidig said:

If he is that concerned about his physical and mental well being why doesn't he just retire? He clearly can handle pissing away 14 million dollars. The man is going to get what the market is willing to give. Running backs are not as important as he seems to think apparently.

 

Not signing for the 14.5m is like an insurance payment. If he got seriously injured this year that could have cost him much more than 14.5m on his next contract.

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

His contract is heavily backloaded for the same reasons.  Bell is the kind of player the Raiders would be trading away right now.  

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/06/grudens-contract-is-backloaded/

 

I know we've talked about guaranteed money for players having to go into an escrow account, so it essentially needs to be accounted for up front. I'm sure somehow the NFLPA got that handled...

 

...which means it wouldn't apply to coaches. 

 

So I believe Gruden got a 10 year $100M guaranteed contract, but that doesn't mean the Raiders needed the $100M up front the way the would for a player. 

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56 minutes ago, bwarbiany said:

 

I know we've talked about guaranteed money for players having to go into an escrow account, so it essentially needs to be accounted for up front. I'm sure somehow the NFLPA got that handled...

 

...which means it wouldn't apply to coaches. 

 

So I believe Gruden got a 10 year $100M guaranteed contract, but that doesn't mean the Raiders needed the $100M up front the way the would for a player. 

 

Good points.  And it’s not that Mark Davis is financially insolvent or anything- just highly leveraged with a lot of balls in the air.    Merely speculating of course.

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3 hours ago, jumper said:

 

Lots of folks argued that Kirk Cousins would definitely get signed by the same teams you mentioned but it was MIN that actually signed him. Fact is the Saints have cap space in 2019, the 2 featured backs system has worked well in NO, and the team is in the twilight of Brees' career.  An offensive core of Brees with a 3 headed monster of Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Bell (upgraded Ingram who can line up in the slot, etc) would be nearly unstoppable.  You can't double team any of the 3 as the other 2 would eat you alive.  That's gotta be something the Saints would consider as a one last push for the Lombardi even if the cap hit in 2021 and beyond would delay the inevitable rebuild by 2 or 3 years. 

??  The only teams in worse cap shape than the Saints in '19 are the Vikings, Eagles, and Jaguars.

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A lot of posts here and predictions, but once everything cools off, bell will still be drafted somewhere in first round I bet in fantasy next year, if he signs ahead of season.

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17 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I'm predicting Houston...they can cut Miller and save 6m.

 

Houston fan here. 

We have a terrible O-line. 

I hope we spend on that rather than LeVeon. 

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18 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

A lot of posts here and predictions, but once everything cools off, bell will still be drafted somewhere in first round I bet in fantasy next year, if he signs ahead of season.

If he signs with Philadelphia maybe. 

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39 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

A lot of posts here and predictions, but once everything cools off, bell will still be drafted somewhere in first round I bet in fantasy next year, if he signs ahead of season.

^^^  ...the opposite of bold.

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Jets. 

 

I'm betting on Bell ending up with the Jets, they are dumb enough to pay the most for Bell. 

 

Not that Bell isn't a great player bc he is, but paying a RB what he wants is almost always payroll suicide. 

 

Running back the easiest thing to replace. 

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