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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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1 minute ago, WaiverLooter said:

 

Tampa if they cut Winston and Brate for cap space and draft a QB

I've thought about that too but their oline kind of sucks. I suppose fixing the oline can be a quick fix with a successful FA and draft. Sometime it just takes 1-2 good players to solidy the line and improve everyone's play.

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I think it'd give Nagy a true 3 down back and Cohen's role would be pretty limited.    Good O-line, good defense.    He'd be great there imo. 

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1 minute ago, Godfather131 said:

You think they'd move on from Howard? Wouldn't Cohen cut into Bell's value as a pass catcher?

 

I don't know if they will move on from Howard or not.   Just think it would be a good place for Bell.   Bell's a terrific pass catcher and I think Nagy would use him 3 downs.

 

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1 minute ago, K197040 said:

 

I don't know if they will move on from Howard or not.   Just think it would be a good place for Bell.   Bell's a terrific pass catcher and I think Nagy would use him 3 downs.

 

I do agree with that Nagy would know how to use him but I Cohen is a really good player himself and is valuable in the passing game. I don't think he would be shelved completely.

I think Houston is a place he could go and as close to what he has been (never taken off the field) and have success.

We all claim the Jets would be terrible, but hey, they could improve right? Remember before last year and Gurley was a struggling RB and Goff was terrible. All of a sudden...Just saying a lot can change in the NFL.

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21 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I'd say Chicago.

 

Chicago makes a decent amount of sense given they are a good team with a QB still on his rookie deal (which helps them afford him) and Bell can be just as dangerous as Cohen in the passing game and will be much more effective as a runner. However, Trubisky has progressed pretty well and the offense has been hot enough that maybe the money could be better spent elsewhere since Cohen has been really good and Howard has been meh but I believe he has more to give the team Nagy just needs to figure out how to make it work within his system (although this doesn't seem like a priority so maybe he'd be better dealt). Would be a power move by the Bears though who are already a top 10 team that look to be on the rise. 

Edited by Jaw1

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40 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Gosh I hope the Jets dont get him and waste Lev Bell in his prime :(

Jets are overwhelming favorites to sign him.  Bears aren’t a realistic option.  They got an elite pass catching back making peanuts.  Bell is likely to be a Jet.  They have 100 mil in cap space and not a lot of talent at the RB position.  I don’t think jets will be a bad spot either.  Sam is going to be a nice QB.  With a new coach, they can come in and change culture pretty quick.

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14 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Chicago makes a decent amount of sense given they are a good team with a QB still on his rookie deal (which helps them afford him) and Bell can be just as dangerous as Cohen in the passing game and will be much more effective as a runner. However, Trubisky has progressed pretty well and the offense has been hot enough that maybe the money could be better spent elsewhere since Cohen has been really good and Howard has been meh but I believe he has more to give the team Nagy just needs to figure out how to make it work within his system (although this doesn't seem like a priority so maybe he'd be better dealt). Would be a power move by the Bears though who are already a top 10 team that look to be on the rise. 

Signing Bell would not be a power move by any team.  More like a publicity stunt.  And one that is likely to end badly.  Hasn't Bell shown his true colors enough this year, at last?  Fool me once, same on you.  Fool me twice, you can't get fooled again.

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Signing Bell would not be a power move by any team.  More like a publicity stunt.  And one that is likely to end badly.  Hasn't Bell shown his true colors enough this year, at last?  Fool me once, same on you.  Fool me twice, you can't get fooled again.

 

True colors? Publicity stunt? I know he hasn't played all year but if you don't remember this dude is a pretty good running back and by showing his "true colors" he has guaranteed that he'll be healthy and fresh (and likely highly motivated) going into next season. I don't see how what happened this season is any concern for a team signing him next year in fact it is probably the best case scenario since once again you get him healthier and more fresh. Who exactly did he fool this season? He literally said since January that if Steelers franchised him again he'd be willing to sit out and/or retire. This season was strictly a business decision, teams make them all the time so why is it a crime when players do it?

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33 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

I don't see how what happened this season is any concern for a team signing him next year...

You may not, but real NFL GMs just might be concerned about spending big bucks on a player who publicly clowned his previous team, and who, at the opening of free agency next March, will have been away from any organized football activites for well over a year.

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You may not, but real NFL GMs just might be concerned about spending big bucks on a player who publicly clowned his previous team, and who, at the opening of free agency next March, will have been away any organized football activites for well over a year.

 

Publicly clowned? He publicly stated "If Steelers franchise me again I'll sit". They offer him a joke of a long term offer (little guaranteed money) and then go against his wishes and franchise him again so true to his word he sits. Just cause the media thought he was bluffing doesn't make him a clown if anything it makes him the opposite of a clown since he sticks to his word and isn't trying to be manipulative or deceptive. If anybody acted like clowns its the Steelers front office for directly going against a star players wishes not once but twice in franchising him and not being able to work out a long term deal (I doubt that endears them to players who may find themselves in similar contract scenarios in the future). They lucked out that Conner turned out to be really good or this situation could've really blown up in their face. 

 

Yeah sitting out for a year isn't a good thing but its better than coming back from a torn ACL (*cough* *cough* Earl Thomas) and it isn't like Bell doesn't have time to workout between now and March, do private workouts with teams prior to being signed and have the entire offseason, training camp and preseason to get back into football shape. He has likely been playing this game his whole life he isn't going to forget what to do from sitting a year, in fact from a health perspective it was probably a good thing for him to fully recover and be healthy.  It's rare that players of Bell's caliber are FA so him having sat out a year while certainly not a positive isn't something likely to be a deal breaker for opposing GMs. Players coming off serious injuries get big money so I don't think Bell will have an issue getting paid. 

Edited by Jaw1
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You Bell truthers just can't seem to understand the incalcuable damage Bell has done to his reputation and his career during this contract stand-off.  You couldn't understand it while it was happening, and now that 11-13-18 has come and gone, you think everything for Bell in 2019 is going to be open arms and huge piles of gold.  I have news for you: it won't be.

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1 hour ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Chicago makes a decent amount of sense given they are a good team with a QB still on his rookie deal (which helps them afford him) and Bell can be just as dangerous as Cohen in the passing game and will be much more effective as a runner. However, Trubisky has progressed pretty well and the offense has been hot enough that maybe the money could be better spent elsewhere since Cohen has been really good and Howard has been meh but I believe he has more to give the team Nagy just needs to figure out how to make it work within his system (although this doesn't seem like a priority so maybe he'd be better dealt). Would be a power move by the Bears though who are already a top 10 team that look to be on the rise. 

 

I agree 100%

 

My main point was that I think it would be a good spot for him, particularly for fantasy.   Not that it would happen.

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22 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You Bell truthers just can't seem to understand the incalcuable damage Bell has done to his reputation and his career during this contract stand-off.  You couldn't understand it while it was happening, and now that 11-13-18 has come and gone, you think everything for Bell in 2019 is going to be open arms and huge piles of gold.  I have news for you: it won't be.

 

You make claims that Bell has shown his "true colors", somehow he'll be just a "publicity stunt" signing and that he has acted like a "clown" and I challenge them with logic and you have no response. The thing is what Bell has done hasn't (other than being out of football shape which is something he has plenty of time to regain) affected him negatively on the football field at all, in fact giving his body a rest after taking a pounding like few RBs have the past few years is likely a benefit to his longterm outlook. This is the outlook that any team signing him should be looking at since that is what they will be paying him for. 

 

A contract stand-off is a two way street. Looking at the long term contract that the Steelers offered to Bell I believe he made the correct decision to decline it since with the little guaranteed money it offered he would literally have been better off signing the franchise tag then hitting the open market the following year. Therefore he is left with 1 of 2 choices play under the franchise tag (which he has extensively and consistently expressed as something he doesn't want to do) or sit out. Both choices are imperfect and I don't think there was anyway to improve his stock going into this upcoming offseason no matter which choice he made. NFL player's especially RBs are depreciating assets  and instead of continuing his rapid degradation by compiling touches for a team that didn't seem willing to pay him what he felt he deserved and risking an injury he choose to slow down his depreciation and just sit out as he had stated he would do if tagged again earlier in the offseason. I don't understand what is so immoral and wrong about this decision and I'd imagine most level-headed people with jobs would be able to at least partially empathize with the situation Bell found himself in. 

 

Let's say he played this season, what is the best case scenario? He puts up around the same numbers he has the last few years (not much room for improvement) while accumulating nearly 400 touches. Now how would this help his stock going into the offseason. Teams already knew he was a talented RB and what he was capable of but now he is 400 touches older and there are more questions about his durability and how much he has left in the tank. Other than he'd have 14.5 M already in his bank account (something he clearly didn't value over the other factors) I don't understand how even the best case scenario puts him in a better situation. Once you factor in the risk of injury of playing on a 1 year deal I think it becomes plausible as to why Bell took the course of action he did. I can understand why you may not believe he made the right choice but I don't think you can definitely say it was the wrong choice. He was screwed either way. 

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1 hour ago, Jaw1 said:

 

True colors? Publicity stunt? I know he hasn't played all year but if you don't remember this dude is a pretty good running back and by showing his "true colors" he has guaranteed that he'll be healthy and fresh (and likely highly motivated) going into next season. I don't see how what happened this season is any concern for a team signing him next year in fact it is probably the best case scenario since once again you get him healthier and more fresh. Who exactly did he fool this season? He literally said since January that if Steelers franchised him again he'd be willing to sit out and/or retire. This season was strictly a business decision, teams make them all the time so why is it a crime when players do it?

It’s not worth you are wasting your time. The donut ? will never change his opinion 

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9 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

You make claims that Bell has shown his "true colors", somehow he'll be just a "publicity stunt" signing and that he has acted like a "clown" and I challenge them with logic and you have no response. The thing is what Bell has done hasn't (other than being out of football shape which is something he has plenty of time to regain) affected him negatively on the football field at all, in fact giving his body a rest after taking a pounding like few RBs have the past few years is likely a benefit to his longterm outlook. This is the outlook that any team signing him should be looking at since that is what they will be paying him for. 

 

A contract stand-off is a two way street. Looking at the long term contract that the Steelers offered to Bell I believe he made the correct decision to decline it since with the little guaranteed money it offered he would literally have been better off signing the franchise tag then hitting the open market the following year. Therefore he is left with 1 of 2 choices play under the franchise tag (which he has extensively and consistently expressed as something he doesn't want to do) or sit out. Both choices are imperfect and I don't think there was anyway to improve his stock going into this upcoming offseason no matter which choice he made. NFL player's especially RBs are depreciating assets  and instead of continuing his rapid degradation by compiling touches for a team that didn't seem willing to pay him what he felt he deserved and risking an injury he choose to slow down his depreciation and just sit out as he had stated he would do if tagged again earlier in the offseason. I don't understand what is so immoral and wrong about this decision and I'd imagine most level-headed people with jobs would be able to at least partially empathize with the situation Bell found himself in. 

 

Let's say he played this season, what is the best case scenario? He puts up around the same numbers he has the last few years (not much room for improvement) while accumulating nearly 400 touches. Now how would this help his stock going into the offseason. Teams already knew he was a talented RB and what he was capable of but now he is 400 touches older and there are more questions about his durability and how much he has left in the tank. Other than he'd have 14.5 M already in his bank account (something he clearly didn't value over the other factors) I don't understand how even the best case scenario puts him in a better situation. Once you factor in the risk of injury of playing on a 1 year deal I think it becomes plausible as to why Bell took the course of action he did. I can understand why you may not believe he made the right choice but I don't think you can definitely say it was the wrong choice. He was screwed either way. 

Your "reasoning," seemingly similar to Bell's agent's reasoning, is chock full of fallacies.  One is that a player can get into football shape by doing anything other than playing football.  So that's strike one.

But on a deeper level, the NFL is a sport where highly skilled men are paid huge salaries to play a violent sport.  That's the gig.  Very few are good enough to be offered that chance.  And Bell has committed the cardinal sin in the eyes of the football world.  He has turned his back on the game and demonstrated beyond any doubt that Bell is not 100% committed to playing football.

Would you like to know how much Adrian Peterson is making this season?  The veteran minimum.  Now there is a player who is 100% committed.

 

And now Bell thinks he is going to get a huge signing bonus?   After he just walked away from $14 million?  No.

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2 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

His 2018 is over so all we have left is to talk about his future/impending FA. Nothing productive is likely to come of these discussions since it is all pure speculation and just a rehashing of what was discussed all season long about if he made the right choice and how it'll affect him going forward. 2019 outlook will largely depend on where he ends up so the conversations aren't even going to likely be fantasy relevant except hypotheticals about where he might go and his expected fit in that situation. 

My guess in 2019 Le’Veon will be with the New York J E T S 

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35 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Your "reasoning," seemingly similar to Bell's agent's reasoning, is chock full of fallacies.  One is that a player can get into football shape by doing anything other than playing football.  So that's strike one.

But on a deeper level, the NFL is a sport where highly skilled men are paid huge salaries to play a violent sport.  That's the gig.  Very few are good enough to be offered that chance.  And Bell has committed the cardinal sin in the eyes of the football world.  He has turned his back on the game and demonstrated beyond any doubt that Bell is not 100% committed to playing football.

Would you like to know how much Adrian Peterson is making this season?  The veteran minimum.  Now there is a player who is 100% committed.

 

And now Bell thinks he is going to get a huge signing bonus?   After he just walked away from $14 million?  No.

 

Bell doesn't need to be in football shape right now since he isn't playing football. If you can only be in football shape by playing football then everyone gets out of football shape in the offseason yet are able to magically get into football shape by the start of the next season so I don't see why Bell an elite athlete is incapable of doing this. He has demonstrated the ability to do this before as he has sat out entire off seasons, training camps and preseasons and gotten into "football shape" in like 2 weeks. I don't think this is the concern you are making it out to be. It isn't like its something unattainable sure it'll take a gradual progression but with a guy as good as Bell I'm sure that is a hit most teams are willing to take for a guy who is among the best at his position when in shape.

 

Bell isn't the first NFL player to hold out for a bigger contract, Aaron Donald literally just held out before being "rewarded" for this "cardinal sin" by being made the highest paid defensive player. There are dozens of examples of this happening and not from old veterans coming off 2 seasons ended early by injuries like AP but players at the best at their position who therefore have some negotiation power (not as easy to replace) and want to get paid like a top player at their position and secure the security of guaranteed money given the violent nature of this sport.  However yes he did step into rather unprecedented territory this year by sitting out the entire season. He attempted to play things by the book last season by only sitting out until week 1 after he and the Steelers couldn't agree on a long term deal. Things only escalated after once again the two sides couldn't come to an agreement and then Bell went to more extreme measures and followed through with his threats to sit out. I don't have all the details around those negotiations and can't necessarily point blame at who was being unreasonable but the numbers I've seen regarding the Steelers offer leave a lot to be desired and seem to justify Bell declining them. 

 

No NFL player plays for free so they aren't playing this violent sport unless they get paid no matter how "committed" they are to football. I'm sure if Peterson had the opportunity to get paid more than the veteran minimum and play in a situation as favorable as the one in Washington he would've taken it. Was Adrian Peterson 100% committed when he held out after wanting to be traded and then wanting a new contract from the Vikings? (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2483616-the-timeline-doesnt-lie-adrian-petersons-holdout-was-doomed-from-the-start).  Was he 100% committed when he went on this twitter rant about how unfair NFL contracts are: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2479410-internet-reacts-to-adrian-petersons-twitter-rant-about-contract-with-vikings? People sure didn't think so back then, they accused him of the same things Bell is being accused of. Similar to Bell he didn't have much leverage and his choices amounted to play for the Vikings or play for no one. He choose the option that Bell didn't but it didn't really work out for him, Vikings ran him to the ground then ditched him and brought the next guy. This has been the trend with running backs in particular and it never has worked in their favor. Bell decided to try something new having seen similar scenarios play out time and time again and never in the players favor. Earl Thomas literally tore his ACL while in a similar situation to Bell having a 1 year contract but wanting a long term deal. Can you really blame Bell? 

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53 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

It’s not worth you are wasting your time. The donut ? will never change his opinion 

 

Yeah but I'm stuck at work waiting for a colleague to finish some crap. Plus, it irks me how players are always the villains in these situations and greedy millionaires who worked hard their whole lives to get to this stage to risk their minds and bodies to entertain us while the billionaire trust fund baby that was gifted the team from their father is perfectly innocent for doing whatever they want with players. The irony is amusing kind of like how a lot of people in society point fingers at everyone but the 1% who are the ones with all the power screwing everyone else over by giving them crumbs to fight over. 

 

I enjoy discussions. As long as they remain civil and relevant both people typically come out better for having engaged in it. 

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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

With a new coach, they can come in and change culture pretty quick

Change cuture by adding Bell? You mean make it worse?

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6 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Yeah but I'm stuck at work waiting for a colleague to finish some crap. Plus, it irks me how players are always the villains in these situations and greedy millionaires who worked hard their whole lives to get to this stage to risk their minds and bodies to entertain us while the billionaire trust fund baby that was gifted the team from their father is perfectly innocent for doing whatever they want with players. The irony is amusing kind of like how a lot of people in society point fingers at everyone but the 1% who are the ones with all the power screwing everyone else over by giving them crumbs to fight over. 

I agree with you, it isn't right that the owners make the serious dough for simply being owners while the young men with exceptional football skills take all the physical risk.  I think Bell is on very solid moral ground to take the stand he did.  If he wants to walk away from $14 million to play a sport for one year, he is well within his rights to do so, and not a villain at all to me.

But I don't think he can walk away from $14 million, sit out an entire season, then walk back in and ask for $45 million.  The NFL does not work that way, nor does life.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I agree with you, it isn't right that the owners make the serious dough for simply being owners while the young men with exceptional football skills take all the physical risk.  I think Bell is on very solid moral ground to take the stand he did.  If he wants to walk away from $14 million to play a sport for one year, he is well within his rights to do so, and not a villain at all to me.

But I don't think he can walk away from $14 million, sit out an entire season, then walk back in and ask for $45 million.  The NFL does not work that way, nor does life.

 

Actors and actresses take sabbaticals all the time, then come back to make movies grossing them millions of dollars.

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23 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

 

Actors and actresses take sabbaticals all the time, then come back to make movies grossing them millions of dollars.

And I am sure Bell would love to be an actor, rapper, and entertainment icon.  Those things are probably going to be more his speed, as apparently football is a little too rough for him.

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8 hours ago, mongidig said:

Why would you compare a guy who makes 850K per game to someone who might make 50k per year? This is nonsense.

 

LOL dude it doesn't matter. It's about being paid a salary commensurate to your skills. If the 50k per year guy works a job who's skill set and experience warrant him 50k it's fair. 

 

If you did something that was so unique and millions of people tuned in to watch you do your job you'd be paid a high salary. It's really simple economics. 

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