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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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26 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports impending free agent Le'Veon Bell is seeking $17 million annually.

It's $3 million higher than Todd Gurley's average salary. Bell also wants $45 million guaranteed. It's a lot of money for a 27-year-old coming off a holdout at a devalued position, but Bell is going to get overpaid this offseason. With the Steelers expected to transition tag Bell, teams may be forced to frontload Bell's contract.
 
In other words, Bell won't be playing next year, either.

Would you like to make a small wager on Bell playing in ‘19 

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1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

Would you like to make a small wager on Bell playing in ‘19 

No.  But I should have wagered on Bell not playing in '18.  Dumb dumb dumb!

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

No.  But I should have wagered on Bell not playing in '18.  Dumb dumb dumb!

Beginning of the season you thought he would come back... 

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1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

Beginning of the season you thought he would come back... 

Yeah I suppose I did.  Okay, note to self: do not make bets on stuff.

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What an ugly situation this is becoming and I wonder how much worse it can get.  For any team thinking of paying his premium, the shining example of why not sits with the Steelers and Conner.   Bell may be better than Conner, but I don't think not having Bell cost them any wins, so what's the point? Someone will pay him but I doubt he'll be worth all the guaranteed money, even with the 3 good years left in front of him.  

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Bell won't get $45m guaranteed with a $17m/year average. 

That's crazy talk.

But!

The comparison isn't whatever he signs for -$14.5m he would've made had he signed the tender this year.

It's whatever he signs for vs this year's franchise money.

So 2018x$ vs 2019y$

Basically, from his perspective, you have to assume career ending/altering injury for 2018.

Say the next down Bell plays, his leg shatters and has to be amputated.  Whether that happens in 2018 or 2019 is irrelevant.  What is relevant is the amount of guaranteed $ he books before that happens. 

That's the relevant calculation. 

So if he gets $14.6m in 2019 instead of the $14.5m he'd have gotten in 2018, it's a win.

Of course, he may never get injured and then it looks like he sacrificed a year's worth of earnings, $14.5m in this case.

But the business decision can't assume he'd stay healthy if he played.

His goal was to maximize his long term, not immediate, value.

I think his contract demands are unrealistic and a $45m guarantee is a pipe dream, but I'm confident that he will beat the $14.5m guarantee that was on the table this year.

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33 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

His goal was to maximize his long term, not immediate, value.

 

Yup and he's smart to do it. Say he tears an achilles this past season if he played. He wouldn't get more than a 1 year prove it deal next season and if he doesn't produce on that (which is a longshot for an RB coming off that kind of injury anyway) then he isn't getting anything possibly for the rest of his career. He may have boomed the Steelers and fantasy fans but he is 100% correct to do so. Getting franchise tagged TWICE at one of the most injury prone positions is unfair.

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10 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Anyone watch that Redskins game??  Anyone doubting Bell’s decision now??

Are we going to say this every time someone gets hurt?

There was a car accident yesterday. Bell better stop driving. 

Someone choked on pizza in Pittsburgh. I hope he stops eating pizza. 

This guy I know got a neck cramp making love to his girlfriend. Bell best keep it in his pants going forward. 

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Are we going to say this every time someone gets hurt?

There was a car accident yesterday. Bell better stop driving. 

Someone choked on pizza in Pittsburgh. I hope he stops eating pizza. 

This guy I know got a neck cramp making love to his girlfriend. Bell best keep it in his pants going forward. 

Just saying.  Football is a violent sport.  No one has any business questioning why he sat out.  It’s his life and security.

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2 hours ago, reichl555 said:

1) Football is a violent sport.  2) No one has any business questioning why he sat out.  3) It’s his life and security.

 

1) True

2) False

3) True

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3 hours ago, reichl555 said:

Anyone watch that Redskins game??  Anyone doubting Bell’s decision now??

 

How many heavy usage RB's have had a career altering injury this season? 


That would probably be the more appropriate comparison.  

Zeke - fine

DJ - fine

Conner - fine
Kamara - fine
Hunt - fine 
Gurley - fine

Mixon - fine 

Gordon - fine 

McCaffrey - fine 

Barkley - fine 

 

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3 hours ago, reichl555 said:

Just saying.  Football is a violent sport.  No one has any business questioning why he sat out.  It’s his life and security.

 

He has every right to dictate his own life, just as we have every right to question and mock him.   

 

He’ll either look smart or a complete fool depending on the contract.    Looking forward to seeing him back in any case. 

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3 hours ago, reichl555 said:

Anyone watch that Redskins game??  Anyone doubting Bell’s decision now??

 

Kirk Cousins played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 42 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 84 million. 

 

Trumaine Johnson played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 30 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 45 million guaranteed. 

 

Under your premise, no player would ever play under the franchise tag yet they all do and manage to still get paid in free agency while also locking up massive franchise tag money. 

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17 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Kirk Cousins played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 42 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 84 million. 

 

Trumaine Johnson played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 30 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 45 million guaranteed. 

 

Under your premise, no player would ever play under the franchise tag yet they all do and manage to still get paid in free agency while also locking up massive franchise tag money. 

 

Just because it didn't happen to them doesn't mean their choice was the correct one. That's called a gambler's fallacy. It's like saying well I didn't wear a seat belt today and didn't die, so why bother wearing one?

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17 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Kirk Cousins played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 42 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 84 million. 

 

Trumaine Johnson played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 30 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 45 million guaranteed. 

 

Under your premise, no player would ever play under the franchise tag yet they all do and manage to still get paid in free agency while also locking up massive franchise tag money. 

 

Those guys also don't play the most abused/injury prone position in football.

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1 minute ago, TheDoctor said:

 

Just because it didn't happen to them doesn't mean their choice was the correct one. That's called a gambler's fallacy. 

 

True.

1 minute ago, datsyuk said:

 

Those guys also don't play the most abused/injury prone position in football.

 

WAs just about to say this, i concur.

 

leveon made a wise decision in the long run imo.

 

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1 minute ago, datsyuk said:

 

Those guys also don't play the most abused/injury prone position in football.

 

Alex Smith, who happens to be the example i was referencing, begs to differ. 

 

How many great RBs last year missed this year due to an injury? 

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21 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Kirk Cousins played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 42 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 84 million. 

 

Trumaine Johnson played under the franchise tag for 2 years and earned approximately 30 million dollars all while managing to avoid a freak injury. 

He then became a free agent and got an additional 45 million guaranteed. 

 

Under your premise, no player would ever play under the franchise tag yet they all do and manage to still get paid in free agency while also locking up massive franchise tag money. 

 

Cousins is a QB who plays a much, much less physically demanding position. Same goes for Johnson. Comparing them to Bell, whom the Steelers ride to 400 touches per season doesn't make sense.

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On 11/18/2018 at 7:04 PM, SadFaceHappy said:

Bell won't get $45m guaranteed with a $17m/year average. 

That's crazy talk.

But!

The comparison isn't whatever he signs for -$14.5m he would've made had he signed the tender this year.

It's whatever he signs for vs this year's franchise money.

So 2018x$ vs 2019y$

Basically, from his perspective, you have to assume career ending/altering injury for 2018.

Say the next down Bell plays, his leg shatters and has to be amputated.  Whether that happens in 2018 or 2019 is irrelevant.  What is relevant is the amount of guaranteed $ he books before that happens. 

That's the relevant calculation. 

So if he gets $14.6m in 2019 instead of the $14.5m he'd have gotten in 2018, it's a win.

Of course, he may never get injured and then it looks like he sacrificed a year's worth of earnings, $14.5m in this case.

But the business decision can't assume he'd stay healthy if he played.

His goal was to maximize his long term, not immediate, value.

I think his contract demands are unrealistic and a $45m guarantee is a pipe dream, but I'm confident that he will beat the $14.5m guarantee that was on the table this year.

 

Why assume a career ending injury vs take out an actual insurance policy on the potential lost wages and take the 14 million. Even if he did get injured he would have that 14 million plus whatever the next deal was. If he gets 15-20 million guaranteed that isn’t even close to a win for him. I do think he’ll get 30 or more but he’s going to be playing for Oakland or NYJ  and he might have to deal with the tag again.

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They year of rest will do his body good. Cheap as Steelers we’re going to try to run him into the ground with 400+ touches again

 

The goal is the contract with guaranteed money and signing bonus. He is set up nicely in that regard. Props to him for standing up for himself and not blowing his money frivolously so he could make the best decision for himself and not be handcuffed 

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I'm all for players taking a stand and setting a precedence against "the man" (league owners).

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