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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

i concur those are two likely outcomes but I think #1 is the most likely and #2 is simply a if all things go wrong scenario.

 

I agree, in which case I don't know why the Steelers don't just peel a couple mill off their stack and make him happy to play this year. 

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Just now, SadFaceHappy said:

My point is quite valid.

It's weird that you're so emotional about this.  What does Bell's money matter to you?

Bell is a jerk.  The Steelers are jerks.  Both have taken positions in their own best interests, as they should.

Bell is probably right to sit out the season. The Steelers are right to not give him the contract he wants.

Bell - barring catastrophic injury - will get a longer term contract next season, as there is at least one team that will be willing to overpay him.

But that's going to be in the range of 35-40 at best, certainly not 50-60.  It would be pure idiocy to pay him as much or more than Gurley.

And his situation is not the same as OBJ's.  OBJ, despite circumstantial evidence, has never been dinged by the league for violating policy on banned substances, thus isn't facing a full season suspension if he does.  He plays a position with a much longer lifespan.  He's more likeable and has spent his career in New York.

How many commercials is OBJ in?

How many is Bell in?

If you value Bell at $50 million, then you pay him $50 million.

The market doesn't and isn't likely to.

Time for everybody to put their big boy pants on.

 

Not emotional dude, it's just that bad attitude players get paid all the time in all sports. You think Gurley is a God and that after one fantastic season, he's worth every penny. If he has a bad year this year, then he's overpaid. His guarantee is not going to be lower than Gurley. Gurley set the bar. Bell has been doing this for 5 years and is entering his final prime years. Bell is a top 10 WR and a top 2 RB in the league...not the same for Gurley. What does endorsement money and commercials have to do with how much he should be getting paid by his employer? So what if Bell gets suspended, that team is not paying him and I'm pretty sure they'll have a clause where they can void the whole contract. From your stance, Tim Tebow should still be in the league getting paid Aaron Rodgers money because at a certain point its more about your image than what you actually do on the field. Stop denying Bell hasn't been the best back for the last 5 years. A team WILL pay him. It's another debate if its overpaying or not and can't be answered until his contract is done.

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3 minutes ago, mjagger42 said:

Sirius XM NFL Radio guy.

 

 

 

That agent is going to paint the picture like Bell is willing to sit out as long as needed, man is out there doing his PR campaign for his client on radio

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1 minute ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Yea, the NFLPA might want to do some work on this (they won't).  A fairer setup would see the tag count against the cap regardless of whether it's signed or not. I get the impression that the Steelers could theoretically tag him every year at this level and just keep the player from playing.

Its not always a declaration of war. It certainly isn't appreciated, but often used to continue negotiations. It's a tool of negotiating more often than a hostile act.  See: Drew Brees

The Steelers could, but the price goes up so fast it’s not feasible.  What you get is the Kirt Cousins situation, and he made out just fine...

 

RB’s are in a higher risk situation, so it’s not quite the same.  I think the solution is not with the tag, but limiting RBs rookie contact to 2 years. Within 2 years teams should know how much a guy is worth to a franchise.  Having starter quality RBs getting payed rookie money for what frequently amounts to their entire career is ridiculous... 

 

RB’s aren’t adequately compensated under the current system.  It’s a mess with regards to the age entering the league.  If a guy enters the league at 23 or 24 he’s @#$& by the time the rookie contact is up, no one is going to pay him.  So, what do RBs do?  Enter the league when they’re 21 or 22?  They’re bodies are frequently not mature enough... Do they then pack on 20 pounds to get to an “ideal” playing weigh?  That’s a recipe for getting injured and having a short career.

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It's not hard to root against him.  He's being offered $14,500,000 to play one season of football.  After which he will have earned $30,000,000 and is free to find a better job if he wants.  For a guy that twice screwed his teammates by getting suspended, and is screwing them again by not playing, I have no difficulty rooting against him.

 

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29 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

There is no lost money. you have to earn the money before you can lose it. It's a situation of opportunity cost= A benefit, profit, or value of something that must be given up to acquire or achieve something else.  Each game he misses costs $850k he could earn, however that is not the deal he wants. He wants a deal more than 1yr and he wants a financial guarantee for more than 1 year. So potential opportunity cost of 1-3mm in the short term  could gain him a 3yr deal+guaranteed money+salary over the next 3-4yrs.

Bell is assuming risk for what he thinks will be a long term gain by not signing the tender; if he breaks his foot today he gets ZERO.  

Well if he signs the tag now, but breaks his foot week 1, he gets $14 million guaranteed.  But he will then get a lot less in free agency next season.

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5 minutes ago, Chardo said:

It's not hard to root against him.  He's being offered $14,500,000 to play one season of football.  After which he will have earned $30,000,000 and is free to find a better job if he wants.  For a guy that twice screwed his teammates by getting suspended, and is screwing them again by not playing, I have no difficulty rooting against him.

 

 

Well if the Steelers would have ponied up the money last year, entering 2019, he would have already been on the backside of a 4 yr/5yr deal and would have avoided all of these headaches, and probably could have been in position to manipulate the cap. Just think about that for a second.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Well if he signs the tag now, but breaks his foot week 1, he gets $14 million guaranteed.  But he will then get a lot less in free agency next season.

 

but he has to show up  and not break his foot on the way to the facility. . .:lol:

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4 minutes ago, hamburglar628 said:

 

Not emotional dude, it's just that bad attitude players get paid all the time in all sports. You think Gurley is a God and that after one fantastic season, he's worth every penny. If he has a bad year this year, then he's overpaid. His guarantee is not going to be lower than Gurley. Gurley set the bar. Bell has been doing this for 5 years and is entering his final prime years. Bell is a top 10 WR and a top 2 RB in the league...not the same for Gurley. What does endorsement money and commercials have to do with how much he should be getting paid by his employer? So what if Bell gets suspended, that team is not paying him and I'm pretty sure they'll have a clause where they can void the whole contract. From your stance, Tim Tebow should still be in the league getting paid Aaron Rodgers money because at a certain point its more about your image than what you actually do on the field. Stop denying Bell hasn't been the best back for the last 5 years. A team WILL pay him. It's another debate if its overpaying or not and can't be answered until his contract is done.

Gurley is worth precisely $45 million guaranteed, because that's what the Rams signed him for - I'm merely pointing out why a team would value him that highly, and it's not "just" what he does between the lines.  

Has Bell been the best back over the last 5 years?  Maybe.  But what does that matter?  Is Bell going to be the best back over the next 5 years?  Almost certainly not.  In that regard, both Mack and OBJ are more likely to be the best at their positions over the next 5 years than Bell is at his, simply because there is less elite talent at pass rusher and WR, thus are more valuable.

And you can't discount the "face of the franchise" aspect. Tim Tebow isn't a good QB, but could otherwise fulfill that role.  AaRod is both a great QB and the face of his franchise, maybe of the NFL overall, so he's the highest paid player in the league.

What franchise could Bell be the face of?

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8 minutes ago, Chardo said:

It's not hard to root against him.  He's being offered $14,500,000 to play one season of football.  After which he will have earned $30,000,000 and is free to find a better job if he wants.  For a guy that twice screwed his teammates by getting suspended, and is screwing them again by not playing, I have no difficulty rooting against him.

 

I have sympathy for the situation, but not the player.  If Bell didn’t get suspended twice, he have a big contact with the Steelers right now.

 

The best situation for everyone is Conner starts and looks fantastic, and Bell gets traded. 

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1 minute ago, seanismorris said:

I have sympathy for the situation, but not the player.  If Bell didn’t get suspended twice, he have a big contact with the Steelers right now.

 

The best situation for everyone is Conner starts and looks fantastic, and Bell gets traded. 

For everyone except Bell owners. 

 

I don't know how confident I would be if Bell ended up on the Jets. 

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

The Las Vegas RAIIIIHHHHDAHHHZZZ

The Raiders do like older players... but they already got one in Lynch.

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1 minute ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

The Las Vegas RAIIIIHHHHDAHHHZZZ

And Gruden might just be dumb enough to give him Gurley money...

So Vegas Gruden is a variable that could potentially disprove my thesis

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Ok.  I am not sure the validity of this, but @steelernation (27.2K followers) reported this 23 minutes ago:

 

More

With an unexpected turn for the worst, we don't expect LeVeon Bell to report to the #Steelers until week 10. He will essentially cost himself 8 mil+ to get to free agency with less wear on his body. #SteelerNation

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2 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Gurley is worth precisely $45 million guaranteed, because that's what the Rams signed him for - I'm merely pointing out why a team would value him that highly, and it's not "just" what he does between the lines.  

Has Bell been the best back over the last 5 years?  Maybe.  But what does that matter?  Is Bell going to be the best back over the next 5 years?  Almost certainly not.  In that regard, both Mack and OBJ are more likely to be the best at their positions over the next 5 years than Bell is at his, simply because there is less elite talent at pass rusher and WR, thus are more valuable.

And you can't discount the "face of the franchise" aspect. Tim Tebow isn't a good QB, but could otherwise fulfill that role.  AaRod is both a great QB and the face of his franchise, maybe of the NFL overall, so he's the highest paid player in the league.

What franchise could Bell be the face of?

 

 

I think it's also worth mentioning that entire offense runs through Gurley. Goff is on a cheap rookie contract and there is no other offensive talent on the team that commands a high price unlike the steelers who are paying Ben+AB alot of money and are legit playmakers in their positions

gurley goes down that offense is probably dead ut if bell goes down the steelers can legitimately plug in a less talented rb  who will be productive just not bell type production.

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In other news, Earl Thomas who was never going to report....is reporting to Seahawks camp today because he understands the value of money. I full expect Leveon to do the same before the weekend. 

 

These guys have no leverage. It's why we saw Cousins play last year. You just play through the franchise tag and then deal with free agency when it comes. 

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I think it's also worth mentioning that entire offense runs through Gurley. Goff is on a cheap rookie contract and there is no other offensive talent on the team that commands a high price unlike the steelers who are paying Ben+AB alot of money and are legit playmakers in their positions

gurley goes down that offense is probably dead ut if bell goes down the steelers can legitimately plug in a less talented rb  who will be productive just not bell type production.

Yes.

Very good point

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2 minutes ago, mmcalli884 said:

Ok.  I am not sure the validity of this, but @steelernation (27.2K followers) reported this 23 minutes ago:

 

More

With an unexpected turn for the worst, we don't expect LeVeon Bell to report to the #Steelers until week 10. He will essentially cost himself 8 mil+ to get to free agency with less wear on his body. #SteelerNation

 

 

Very plausible strategy and smart strategy, if true Bell is really giviing the finger to the organization and making the ultimate bet on himself

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4 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Gurley is worth precisely $45 million guaranteed, because that's what the Rams signed him for - I'm merely pointing out why a team would value him that highly, and it's not "just" what he does between the lines.  

Has Bell been the best back over the last 5 years?  Maybe.  But what does that matter?  Is Bell going to be the best back over the next 5 years?  Almost certainly not.  In that regard, both Mack and OBJ are more likely to be the best at their positions over the next 5 years than Bell is at his, simply because there is less elite talent at pass rusher and WR, thus are more valuable.

And you can't discount the "face of the franchise" aspect. Tim Tebow isn't a good QB, but could otherwise fulfill that role.  AaRod is both a great QB and the face of his franchise, maybe of the NFL overall, so he's the highest paid player in the league.

What franchise could Bell be the face of?

 

Has Bell been the best back over the last 5 years?  Maybe.  But what does that matter? 

 

Who has been the best back for the last 5 years than...the answer is YES....why does it matter? Well that's how you negotiate a contract. you have no reasoning behind your logic of why he can't be...he could literally be a WR if he wanted too and offers top 3 in every category for a RB....How could you say OBJ is going to be a top 5 at his position when he's more injury prone...he's missed 17 games out of 4 years...a whole year essentially. LOOK UP BELL'S STATS...he's a top 10 WR in the league...and he's a RB. He's not going to be the face of anything...the Jets, Bucs, MIA, Colts could easily sign him...the list goes on...he's an elite talent to everyone except you.

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28 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Bell is probably right to sit out the season. The Steelers are right to not give him the contract he wants.

Bell - barring catastrophic injury - will get a longer term contract next season, as there is at least one team that will be willing to overpay him.

But that's going to be in the range of 35-40 at best, certainly not 50-60.  It would be pure idiocy to pay him as much or more than Gurley.

I agree with most of this, but you have one part of it wrong:  Bell must play at least six games to accrue a season.  If he sits out all year, he will be right back to square one.  

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