Dirty Little Birdie

Emmanuel Mudiay 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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15 hours ago, panthers93 said:

hes barely clinging to 12 team value over the season and if his "shooting dips" to his career 39% shooting with his "other stats" like his terrible free throw shooting, and his assists that are also way above career averages the past week or 2, hell be a 20 teamer

 

his shooting needs to stay around 47% or his value will fall off a cliff

 

Obviously using a season long value is not a great idea as he's only gotten locked into starter's minutes since December 1st. 

 

His value isn't even that great since that time, but given that he's only 22/23 and just getting into a rhythm I think there's a decent chance he could be a top 100 value ROS. Point guard is probably the hardest position to learn and Fizdale seems to be bringing out the best in him. So I'm holding in my punt FG/TO team unless he turns into Nuggets Mudiay or Fiz switches to Frank.

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21 hours ago, panthers93 said:

hes barely clinging to 12 team value over the season and if his "shooting dips" to his career 39% shooting with his "other stats" like his terrible free throw shooting, and his assists that are also way above career averages the past week or 2, hell be a 20 teamer

 

his shooting needs to stay around 47% or his value will fall off a cliff

 

Why are you referencing his season-long value when he's only been starting for the last few weeks? Completely meaningless.

 

He's the 73rd ranked player in the last month, and that is with an FG z-score of -0.7 (which for reference, is worse than guys like Smart and Gallinari), so he clearly has 12 team value at these minutes and usage even if the FG is poor.

 

Now if he begins shooting 50% FT on 8 FTA/g as he did yesterday, obviously that is different, but i don't think that is the expectation.

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10 minutes ago, JStyles said:

 

Why are you referencing his season-long value when he's only been starting for the last few weeks? Completely meaningless.

 

He's the 73rd ranked player in the last month, and that is with an FG z-score of -0.7 (which for reference, is worse than guys like Smart and Gallinari), so he clearly has 12 team value at these minutes and usage even if the FG is poor.

 

Now if he begins shooting 50% FT on 8 FTA/g as he did yesterday, obviously that is different, but i don't think that is the expectation.

what would you rather i reference, his recent stretch of shooting like 56% from the field? pretty meaningful that you understand what an outlier is when he's shooting about 20% better from the field than his career averages. youre also definitely wrong about his fg value. what are you using, yahoo's broken standard deviations? i have his as a -.5 for the past month. must be convenient for you to ignore his assists too because as i already said those are way above his career averages too

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35 minutes ago, panthers93 said:

what would you rather i reference, his recent stretch of shooting like 56% from the field? pretty meaningful that you understand what an outlier is when he's shooting about 20% better from the field than his career averages. youre also definitely wrong about his fg value. what are you using, yahoo's broken standard deviations? i have his as a -.5 for the past month. must be convenient for you to ignore his assists too because as i already said those are way above his career averages too

 

It's reasonable to expect an uptick in assists on a team with no other playmakers, while in Denver he played with Jokic and other guys far more capable of moving the ball around.

 

That z score is from BBM, which says in the last month he's averaged 44.9% from the field on more than 13 fga. I think 44-45% is within the bounds of what we can hope for - it's an improvement but it isn't crazy.

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Just now, JStyles said:

 

It's reasonable to expect an uptick in assists on a team with no other playmakers, while in Denver he played with Jokic and other guys far more capable of moving the ball around.

 

That z score is from BBM, which says in the last month he's averaged 44.9% from the field on more than 13 fga. I think 44-45% is within the bounds of what we can hope for - it's an improvement but it isn't crazy.

again you are ignoring facts that dont support your argument he has averaged 4 assists for his career and thats been up to 6 since people started adding him without any change in turnovers, that is a huge difference

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2 minutes ago, panthers93 said:

again you are ignoring facts that dont support your argument he has averaged 4 assists for his career and thats been up to 6 since people started adding him without any change in turnovers, that is a huge difference

 

Do you understand how stats work? If he's playing more minutes he has an opportunity to rack up more assists.

 

He is a 4 APG career player..he's also a 25mpg career player. So if he's playing 30+ minutes, he's obviously going to average more assists.

 

His per36 career assists average is 5.9. His per36 assists average this season are 5.1. Subsequently his assist rate is actually less than his career average, so if anything there is scope for improvement.

 

Hope this helped?

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2 minutes ago, JStyles said:

Do you understand how stats work?

do you understand how reading works? his turnovers havent changed at all with increased assists and increased minutes.

 

guess you cant ill stop wasting my time.

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Just now, panthers93 said:

do you understand how reading works? his turnovers havent changed at all with increased assists and increased minutes.

 

guess you cant ill stop wasting my time.

 

His turnovers per 36 have decreased in his career from 3.8 to 3.4 and now to 2.7, pretty reasonable progression as he gets more experience, but some potential regression.

 

After being proved wrong on the FG and assists, if this is all your argument has left, then yikes.

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3 minutes ago, DirkNomisszki said:

what do you think his ROS will be like.

is he just a sell high

The Knicks have volatile roster setups. They aren't winning with him in the lineup (although his stats are good). Trey Burke is out and Nilikina is going to need more minutes at some point. 

 

Personally I would try to sell high, but I'm not sure who would buy. He's a nice "ride until the wheels fall off" option I think. 

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32 PTS 1 REB 4 AST 1 STL 3 TO| 3 3PTM 60% FG 66.7% FT

 

As I've said, he is a multi-faceted player:

- can score and knock down the 3s

- can create his own shots and for others

- can execute in the pick and roll, isolation or off-ball

 

THJ while being very offensively skilled is trending towards JR Smith territory. He takes bad shots, can't lead a team.

K Knox is also a 1 dimensional player and so is Trier.

Burke can be effective at times but with limited minutes, he would opt to be himself and get scoring opportunities when he can.

 

This is why Mudiay is getting and will get consistent minutes moving forward IMO.

 

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Actually, THJ has plantar fasciitis. I get it once in a while and it's brutal. It doesn't go away with rest. It put Tedesic from LAC out 22 games last year. Mud might be a hold, it's not hard to see time off in THJ's near future. 

 

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Just hope I keep him on my bench, as the one time I've played him lately was his dreadful game on Wednesday...

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4 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

I still don’t know if this is real....

 

I'm not convinced it's real either, but this is undoubtedly the best run of his (still young) career.

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3 hours ago, flat_eric said:

 

I'm not convinced it's real either, but this is undoubtedly the best run of his (still young) career.

Ditto, but you can't drop him and you can't trade him. Stuck in the magical place where you ride him until the wheels fall off.

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11 hours ago, HotSauce24 said:

I remember when this board used to trash him, so much so that many thought he'd be out of the league! 

I sure did. He was on his way. NY was a good landing spot for him. Fiz seems to patient with players. With Coach Malone and I get, he's much more hardcore, he's looking for results and TO's. NBA is not a league to learn on the fly, but teams like NY, CHI, and the Suns, it's a learning curve. So good for Mudiay. I hope they don't trade him. 

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A couple of games with lesser production..... can we expect this to be the norm with Trier etc back? Or was it due to tough opposition 

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^ Yes. He missed couple of easy layups. Could have scored 17 actually.

 

ROS, I think he'll be somewhere:

17 PTS 6 REBS 6 AST

Edited by wisegeeks
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wt* happened?

 

I passed on Sato to keep this guy

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